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One cannot help but feel that Iran is playing a good long game from a tough corner. If has been postulated, they have preserved a material part of their missile and drone capability, the Gulf will be under Iranian threat going forward. The last two months have ably demonstrated that they don't need a conventional Navy or Air Force to dominate the Strait or hold the region under threat.
How a military balance is established in the short term is difficult to see. Certainly, the Gulf states will need to invest heavily in counter ballistic missiles and counter drone capability. They will need to be able to defend forward, have persistent surveillance and interception systems and hold their defence forces at high readiness for protracted periods. When the US retires its mass from the field, it is going to be a vulnerable security challenge. |
Today's updates on the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab-el-Mandab Strait and all Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman ports and anchorages......including caution as the Strait of Hormuz traffic increases a little, hopeful signs that normality is returning in Iraq and its Hajj season where despite the conflict and raging sandstorms all flights are operating normally
There are signs and hopes that the Strait of Homuz might be starting to ease a little with the increased traffic consisting of oil and gas ships. Although total agreement is not yet done and dusted, there is a sense of optimism across the region that there is perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel at last. However, the uptick in activity is still being treated with caution due to the fragility of the situation. Iran’s expanded control over the area has stretched beyond the narrow Hormuz passage itself. Reuters reported that Tehran now considers parts of the UAE’s Gulf of Oman coastline within its operational oversight, increasing pressure on alternative export routes. That includes the UAE’s Fujairah oil export corridor, which has become a critical outlet allowing some Emirati crude shipments to bypass Hormuz entirely. Jaber called the blockade a “dangerous precedent” for global trade and maritime security. “Once you accept that a single country can hold the world’s most important waterway hostage, freedom of navigation as we know it is just finished,” he said. For now, the movement of a small number of LNG tankers and crude carriers suggests that the Strait of Hormuz is no longer completely paralysed. More on this Is Strait of Hormuz now open? More oil, LNG tankers cross Gulf chokepoint (Gulf News - May 25, 2026) Iraq is reopening many of its oil refinery facilities and in negotiations to get back the foreign investment that was lost as a result of the hostilities. Aiding this aim is the reopening of the pipelines to Ceyhan in Turkey that will allow shipments to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and get the region shipping oil back to customers again. However, the foreign companies need to be enticed back as the country cannot go it alone. The spokesperson for the Oil Ministry, Saheb Bazoun, said that the government is in negotiations with foreign oil firms operating in the country to resume activities at closed oil fields. Furthermore, preparations are underway to restart oil shipments through the Turkish port of Ceyhan in the coming days. The Iraqi government is focusing on oil earnings, activating export outlets, and reaching agreements to maintain the smooth flow of exports. Bazoun underlined that Iraq’s oil production remains intact despite recent setbacks in the industry. The majority of foreign corporations operating in Iraq have recently withdrawn, leading to the closure of certain oil fields. However, the government has managed to maintain the oil reservoirs and operational infrastructure while actively working to encourage these companies to resume their activities and complete ongoing development plans. The Iraqi official explained that the Iraqi government is currently attempting to diversify export channels in light of the challenges posed by recent geopolitical developments. Hajj season has begun and Saudi Arabia are reporting that despite bad weather, sandstorms and the hostilities there have not been any problems getting pilgrims into the country. All flights have been running and there are no issues expected to cause problems during the 6 days of Hajj and subsequent departures of the pilgrims. Over 1.5 million pilgrims have arrived in Saudi Arabia from outside the kingdom for Hajj, according to a Saudi official, exceeding the number of international visitors last year despite the war in the Middle East. The conflict triggered by the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February saw Tehran order waves of strikes on targets in Saudi Arabia and across the Gulf, prompting widespread air traffic disruptions and causing travel costs to surge. Major Gulf airlines in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain have worked to quickly restore much of their operational capacity after weeks of airspace closures and flight cancelations. Despite the complications, pilgrims have continued to flock to Saudi Arabia to participate in this year’s Hajj. “The total number of pilgrims arriving from abroad has reached 1,518,153,” Saleh Al-Murabba, the commander of Saudi Arabia’s Hajj Passport Forces, told a press conference late Friday. So onto the waterways.......the Strait of Hormuz is active, albeit quietly, at time of typing, there have been no reported incidents https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....03f57e8673.png Likewise with the Bab-el-Mandab Strait, traffic is flowing well and no reported incidents https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....867d7c62fe.png Onto Persian Gulf from Umm Qasr to Doha....increased activity throughout the area. A cautious sign of hope perhaps https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a3b9b65e87.png Mina Saqr to Dubai is still congested, Das Island anchorage is empty. The Iranian herders are still making heavy clusters of ships, tightly packed together https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e44e86fc5a.png On the Gulf of Oman side, again extremely busy in the ports and on the anchorages from Dibba to Sohar with the usual Iranian herders close by https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....aafa3073cc.png No updates available regarding the remaining crew who were seriously injured aboard CMA CGM San Antonio during Project Freedom. Thats it for now...back tomorrow |
Originally Posted by Wyntor
(Post 12091205)
The last two months have ably demonstrated that they don't need a conventional Navy or Air Force to dominate the Strait or hold the region under threat.
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With, hopefully, the mods allowance....as a layperson, I have a question regarding the Ghadir (which I mentioned and profiled up thread)...something, tbh, that has concerned me
At last count, which was around 2020, it is said that Iran had at least 20 Ghadir in service, though no actual figures have been available officially from Iran. Given that they can be built pretty much anywhere and appear, on the face of it at least, to be relatively quick and inexpensive to build and seen as a very offensive, and thus dangerous, item in the Iranian Navy. With just a 125 ton submerged displacement and being 95ft long x 9ft wide and with a crew of 7, they are not easy to find on sonar, often they will hide under or around the natural rocky outcrops and wait for their "prey" before firing their complement of 2 x 21 inch torpedoes. As stated before the attack on HMM Namu has been slated by the ship's Korean owners as a mine......or was it...maybe...a Ghadir..... https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bbc73e220c.png My question is this.... Given that the USN has some very large and sophisticated ships currently in the Gulf of Oman working the Iranian port blockade......is it / would it be possible for a group of Ghadir to position themselves underneath one of the larger USN ships and be able to punch a hole into the aft end, just as with HMM Namu above, and potentially sink that USN ship? Reason for asking...... If the current round of talks fail and hostilities restart, surely the time tween the ceasefire beginning and the potential failure of the talks would be more than enough time to have the Ghadir fleet (or a portion of it) find and shadow the USN ships in readiness to attack should things kick off again. They can remain submerged for several days at a time, so even if the wait is a long one, theoretically there are enough Ghadir to roster and to keep watch on the USN fleet full time and without being spotted on sonar. Trying to enter the minds of the various planners and plotters should hostilities kick off again, could the threat of the Ghadir have been overlooked or dismissed or simply not known about. The Iranians have no reason not to carry out such an attack. They are tenacious and even if they died in the attempt they would be seen as heroes and martyrs. Taking out a principle USN ship in this way would change everything...and not in a good way for anyone. |
Not wanting to click on a link to find I've already read the information.
Can you give a three-word summary of 'here we go again!' to give us fair warning? Thank you. |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 12091705)
Not wanting to click on a link to find I've already read the information.
Can you give a three-word summary of 'here we go again!' to give us fair warning? Thank you. |
Originally Posted by BonnieLass
(Post 12091325)
With, hopefully, the mods allowance....as a layperson, I have a question regarding the Ghadir (which I mentioned and profiled up thread)...something, tbh, that has concerned me
At last count, which was around 2020, it is said that Iran had at least 20 Ghadir in service, though no actual figures have been available officially from Iran. Given that they can be built pretty much anywhere and appear, on the face of it at least, to be relatively quick and inexpensive to build and seen as a very offensive, and thus dangerous, item in the Iranian Navy. With just a 125 ton submerged displacement and being 95ft long x 9ft wide and with a crew of 7, they are not easy to find on sonar, often they will hide under or around the natural rocky outcrops and wait for their "prey" before firing their complement of 2 x 21 inch torpedoes. As stated before the attack on HMM Namu has been slated by the ship's Korean owners as a mine......or was it...maybe...a Ghadir..... https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bbc73e220c.png My question is this.... Given that the USN has some very large and sophisticated ships currently in the Gulf of Oman working the Iranian port blockade......is it / would it be possible for a group of Ghadir to position themselves underneath one of the larger USN ships and be able to punch a hole into the aft end, just as with HMM Namu above, and potentially sink that USN ship? Reason for asking...... If the current round of talks fail and hostilities restart, surely the time tween the ceasefire beginning and the potential failure of the talks would be more than enough time to have the Ghadir fleet (or a portion of it) find and shadow the USN ships in readiness to attack should things kick off again. They can remain submerged for several days at a time, so even if the wait is a long one, theoretically there are enough Ghadir to roster and to keep watch on the USN fleet full time and without being spotted on sonar. Trying to enter the minds of the various planners and plotters should hostilities kick off again, could the threat of the Ghadir have been overlooked or dismissed or simply not known about. The Iranians have no reason not to carry out such an attack. They are tenacious and even if they died in the attempt they would be seen as heroes and martyrs. Taking out a principle USN ship in this way would change everything...and not in a good way for anyone. |
For today's updates for the Strait of Hormuz, Bab-el-Mandab Strait, Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.........plus a skirmish off Bandar Abbas and a wider humanitarian crisis looming due to choking the Strait of Hormuz....and a place to stay offered to Iran's footballers
It will not have escaped many people's notice that several skirmishes within the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on land targets within Iran have been going on overnight. Several fast boats operated by Iran were fired upon by USN who have accused Iran of laying more mines within the Strait. Attacks by the USN were also aimed at various sites tween Bandar Abbas and Jask said to be missile launching areas. “Targets included missile launch sites and Iranian boats attempting to emplace mines. US Central Command continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire,” US Central Command spokesman Timothy Hawkins was quoted as saying by CNN. The missile strikes were reported to have targeted an area near the port city of Bandar Abbas where an Iranian naval base is located. Iran has previously claimed to have mined the Strait of Hormuz in area that includes the normal traffic separation scheme for commercial shipping although the presence of mines has not been confirmed. The latest US strikes come as peace talks between the US and Iran are reported to be progressing around a Memorandum of Understanding which would extend the ceasefire for another 60 days and a re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz, although the two sides have differed on how close they are to an agreement. The ongoing hostilities have caused a growing humanitarian crisis in countries such as Sudan where a dependency of not just oil but fertiliser too. Every country that uses fertilisers have had supply issues since the hostilities began, most can weather the delays and price increases but many cannot. Sudan, which is also going through its own hostilities, is now becoming desperate for fertiliser which has become too expensive for many farmers to buy. Sudan is not alone in this, there are many nations who were below the poverty line before the hostilities who are now experiencing very real humanitarian issues that will last much longer than the hostilities in the Gulf region... Farmers across Sudan say the hike in global fuel and fertilizer costs resulting from the Iran conflict will force them to cut back on planting this summer, restricting food production in a country where war has caused acute hunger. Eight farmers from different parts of Sudan, as well as experts working in the sector, told Reuters that fuel and fertilizer price increases would compound problems caused by a civil war, hitting staple domestic crops such as sorghum and millet as well as exports like sesame. Sudan is particularly vulnerable to the fallout from the Iran crisis as it relies on the Gulf for more than half of its fertilizer needs, according to UN data, while the war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has left it entirely dependent on fuel imports. Onto the upcoming football.....the Iranian team have been refused permission to stay in the US during their games, despite assurances just a few weeks ago that they would be welcome. However Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that the team will be more than welcome to stay in Mexico for the duration of their participation Sheinbaum said football's governing body Fifa approached her government after the US said it did not want Iran's squad to stay in the country throughout the tournament, despite Iran playing all three of its group matches there. "We have no reason to deny them the possibility of staying in Mexico," Sheinbaum said during her daily press conference. So onto the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandab Strait.... All quiet in the Strait of Hormuz this morning, at time of writing there are no reported incidents https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d68e2474b3.png Fairly quiet on the Bab-el-Mandab Strait also this morning, again no reported incidents https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....29f9890a74.png Persian Gulf ports and anchorages from Umm Qasr to Doha....a noticeable shift for the shipping towards the Saudi and Kuwaiti coastlines and away from the Iranian coast. Iranian herders are out in force today https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....596d05aa29.png The area from Mina Saqr to Dubai has really changed significantly with smaller huddles of ships, vast open areas on the main anchorages (possibly ships gone dark to avoid being hit again)......the Iranian herders again are out in force https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ea575eed1f.png Again the same thing is clear to see outside of the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf of Oman. The main anchorages and ports are very quiet, with ships moving about tween Sohar and Muscat, with Muscat itself becoming quite congested. Not so much evidence of Iranian herders but certainly a change in the way that ships are positioning https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1216a6a31d.png That's it for now...back tomorrow |
US strikes Southern Iran. see: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgzzn4y1n8o
The US said it launched new strikes on southern Iran, targeting Iranian missile sites and boats attempting to place mines. The strikes were taken in "self-defense"and were designed "to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces", US Central Command said in a statement. Central Command spokesperson Capt Tim Hawkins said the US military "continues to defend our forces while using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire" between the two countries. Iran is yet to respond to the US attack. However, Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqai earlier said that while some progress had been made in talks to end the war, a deal "is not imminent". It is unclear what impact the strikes will have on any potential peace agreement between the US and Iran. Following the strikes, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said a deal was still possible and pointed to talks on Tuesday between Iran's top negotiator and foreign minister and Qatar's prime minister. "We'll see if we can make progress. I think it's a lot of talking back and forth going on about specific language in the initial document, so it'll take a few days," Rubio told reporters during an official visit to India. He said President Donald Trump had "expressed his desire to make it". "He's either going to make a good deal or no deal," Rubio said. Asked again later about Monday's strikes, Rubio said: "The straits have to be open. They're going to be open one way or the other, so they need to be open. What's happening there is unlawful, it's illegal, it's unsustainable for the world, it's unacceptable." Capt Hawkins said the US strikes targeted an area near Bandar Abbas, a southern port city and home of an Iranian naval base that sits on the Strait of Hormuz, according to the New York Times. Iranian state media had earlier reported that local officials in Bandar Abbas were investigating after explosions were heard. Earlier in May, a clash between Iranian and US naval destroyers in the Strait of Hormuz - for which each side blamed the other - led Trump to insist a ceasefire was still in place. At the weekend, Trump had suggested the sides were close to a deal, but later said he had instructed negotiators "not to rush into" one, while Rubio had said an agreement could possibly be reached on Monday. But Baqai responded: "It is correct to say that we have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the issues under discussion... But to say that this means the signing of an agreement is imminent - no-one can make such a claim." The memorandum of understanding being discussed reportedly involves a 60-day ceasefire extension, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a plan for further negotiations over Iran's nuclear programme. CBS News, the BBC's US partner, has reported that US intelligence believes Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei - who was injured in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war which killed his father and predecessor - is holed up in an undisclosed location, making communication with his envoys difficult and therefore delaying pace of talks with the US. According to US media, the discussions will not immediately lead to a final settlement. Contentious issues will likely be negotiated later, including details of Iranian sanctions relief, the release of frozen Iranian funds, and US demands for Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. At the start of the war, Iran is thought to have had about 440kg (970 lbs) of uranium that was enriched up to 60% purity - a short process away from being enriched further to the weapons-grade 90%, which theoretically could allow it to create a nuclear bomb. On Monday night, Trump said the enriched uranium would either be "immediately" turned over to the US, or "preferably, in conjunction and co-ordination with the Islamic Republic of Iran, destroyed in place". US and Iranian forces have observed a ceasefire since 8 April. Iran has maintained controls on Gulf shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the US Navy has sought to blockade Iran's ports. The US and Israel launched wide-ranging strikes on Iran on 28 February, sparking conflict across the Middle East. Iran responded by attacking Israel and US-allied states in the Gulf, and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The move sent oil prices soaring globally. |
Iran is yet to respond to the US attack. https://x.com/MenchOsint/status/2059...524990753?s=20 The IRGC shot down an US MQ-9 Reaper drone & fired at an F-35 and an RQ-4. — Tasnim "The terrorist US army, continuing its interventionist adventures and aggressive behaviors, entered Iranian airspace in the Persian Gulf region, and the IRGC air defense units, in defense of our country's territorial integrity and after precise intelligence monitoring, identified and shot down an MQ9 drone. "They also fired at an RQ4 drone and the invading F35 fighter jet, forcing them to flee and exit the territorial airspace." |
There is a very mixed reaction towards the hostilities as a whole from inside Iran...it is becoming very obvious that at street level, ie the Iranian people, that they are losing both respect and trust for both the US and their own government. It is hard...almost impossible...for them to speak out publicly due to a very real fear of retribution by their own government. The internet across Iran has been shut down for the entire time that hostilities have been present, though some within Iran are managing to relay messages to the outside world, they are very few and far between. The concensus seems to be that they do feel like pawns and that they simply cannot trust anyone.
As speculation over renewed diplomacy between Tehran and Washington intensifies, several citizens described the prospect of a deal not as a path toward stability but as another political arrangement reached at the expense of ordinary Iranians. “We no longer have hope in Trump… we will finish the job ourselves,” one citizen wrote. Another added: “Trump’s decisions should not matter to us. We ourselves must bring down the Islamic Republic from inside the country.” The messages come amid continued economic pressure inside Iran, where inflation, unemployment and political repression remain key public grievances. ........... Some viewers voiced direct opposition to any temporary ceasefire or agreement involving the Islamic Republic. “We the people of Iran do not want a 60-day ceasefire or agreement,” one citizen wrote. Another described life in Iran as “impossible” and said they were waiting for “another call from the prince,” referring to exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi. Several messages also urged US President Donald Trump not to strike a deal with Tehran, arguing that the Islamic Republic has systematically deprived citizens of the ability to organize or protest freely over the past decades. More on this : VOICES FROM IRAN Citizens voice anger, distrust over possible US-Iran deal (Iran International - May 24, 2026) |
https://x.com/clashreport/status/205...977079892?s=20 A second battle-damaged KC-135 tanker has been spotted at RAF Mildenhall in the UK. The aircraft, tail number 63-8028 from the Alaska Air National Guard's 168th Wing, arrived from Tel Aviv with extensive shrapnel repair patches on the tail, vertical stabilizer, flaps, and spoilers, and is missing its refueling boom entirely. At least five KC-135s were damaged in the March 2026 Iranian strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Source: TWZ, Andrew McKelvey https://www.twz.com/news-features/an...raf-mildenhall Another Battle Damaged KC-135 Tanker Seen Passing Through RAF Mildenhall In another visible sign of the damage inflicted by Iran during the now-paused war, a KC-135 Stratotanker was spotted over the weekend at RAF Mildenhall in the United Kingdom peppered with temporary shrapnel damage repairs. The aircraft is at least the second to transit through the installation with damage from the war. The photographs, from aviation photographer Andrew McKelvey, show the KC-135 heavily speckled with shrapnel damage to the tail, its vertical stabilizer as well as its flaps. It is also missing its refueling boom entirely. It is unclear where this jet was struck. There were five tankers reportedly damaged in the Iranian long-range strike on Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB) in Saudi Arabia on March 14. However, data from FlightRadar24 shows that the jet was taking off and arriving at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv Israel on the day before and after the attack on PSAB. In addition, that data shows it was still flying missions after that incident, which seems highly unlikely. The KC-135 could have been hit somewhere else or the data is wrong. We just don’t know at the moment. “It’s still here and parked on the visitors ramps on the north side of the base,” McKelvey told us Monday morning EDT. This jet, tail number 63-8028, belongs to the Alaska Air National Guard’s 168th Wing. It arrived at Mildenhall from Ben Gurion on Saturday, according to data from FlightRadar24. As we have reported in the past, dozens of U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft now deployed to Ben Gurion Airport are expected to stay in Israel at least until the end of this year, Israel’s N12 News reported on X. “The presence of the aircraft—not the U.S. military—is causing significant operational difficulties at Ben Gurion Airport, as they are parked almost everywhere possible at the port,” the outlet added. As noted earlier, this is at least the second KC-135 that has visited Mildenhall sporting shrapnel damage and temporary repairs. Last month, McKelvey shared images with us of a KC-135 from the Ohio Air National Guard’s (OANG) 121st Air Refueling Wing covered from nose to tail with these repairs. However, additional ones could have transited to Mildenhall or other installations in Europe before flying to Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma for far more comprehensive repair work. Tinker is home to the Oklahoma City Air Logistics Complex, which performs programmed depot maintenance and modifications on KC-46, KC-135, B-1B, B-52, E-3 and Navy E-6 aircraft....... |
A little bondo, and a little paint...that's buff out. :}
A note on the latest armed incidents: as has happened during previous talks, shooting started. In this case it's a bit different. It appears to be confined to the locale of the Straits as regards maritime interception and mine laying. (And some of the Iranian navy's shore establishment). |
https://x.com/UKArmaments/status/205...177564216?s=20 RFA Lyme Bay has sailed from Gibraltar carrying state-of-the-art minehunting kit and 100+ specialist personnel, ahead of a potential mission to safeguard freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what’s on board... |
The RFA Lyme Bay acts as a mother ship for the kit listed which, I suspect, has already been deployed by air to the theatre where it can operate independently.
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Listening to the Rest Is Politics US podcast it was mentioned that the US lost an aircraft in the recent attacks?
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12092219)
Listening to the Rest Is Politics US podcast it was mentioned that the US lost an aircraft in the recent attacks?
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....74cb26a62c.jpg |
The bill for this war just keeps on rising......$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Herc15’s infographic says ‘as of April 10 2026’.
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https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/ir...article-897319
Iranians say it was an MQ9. Perhaps this was the reason for the recent defensive actions. |
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