From the perspective of a Persian in 1915, or an Iranian in 1953, who would you say was threatening your existence?
Notice any linkage between historical meddling abroad, Iran's theocracy, and today's conflict with Iran?

Wiki:
Anglo-Persian_Oil_Company
AP News:
CIA publicly acknowledges 1953 coup it backed in Iran was undemocratic as it revisits 'Argo' rescue
CIA:
Overthrow of Premier Mossadeq of Iran, November 1952-August 1953
National Potemkin Radio:
How The CIA Overthrew Iran's Democracy In 4 Days

The curse of oil. The camel herders would still be herding camels if it wasn´t for oil. And the West would have zero interest in the region.

There was a video where that looked like it happened in gaza. Think it was the strike where they took out the head of hamas in the bunker

I'll bite. Personally - yes, I get the history of great power meddling, most recently the US. Yes it's egregious and Machiavellian. Yes, Iran is a proud nation, with a young population of wonderful people, and thousands of years of history and culture
But we are where we are, and where we are is a turning point.
Although this conflict is dreadful to watch, I support Israel's action and am left open mouthed at the IAF and Mossad's execution.
I absolutely believe Iran is close to breaking out, and that there is no way it's current leadership should ever be allowed to possess a nuclear weapon. The country is led by sh!ts.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if B2s are being loaded at Whiteman right now.
Logic would suggest once Iranian Air Defences are fully suppressed, and a ballistic missile threat to US assets in the region is contained, then you send in the USAF to do what the IAF can't.
Repeatedly hit Fordow, the new complex to the South and other sites to destroy the centrifuge halls and entomb them.
Yes, it'll be messy, frightening and will change Middle East geopolitics - but what's the alternative?
A negotiated de-escalation and yet more meaningless promises from the Iranian regime?
I don't think so.

Agree tartare

The Israeli retaliations of Mossad hitting Herzbollah's pagers, and the IAF 200-ship strike against Iran on Night 1, have been brilliant executions.
How many airforces could dispatch such a strike force these days - only the US.

Let's see the Persians rise up against their Ayatollah despots.

From a purely selfish point of view - one of my great regrets is that I cannot yet visit Iran to learn more about the country and culture, and may not be able to for another 10-15 years at least, because it is so dangerous for westerners.
Tehran looks fascinating, surrounded by beautiful mountains, great food, literature, history. And a vibrant society, elements of which still defy the despots who rule them.
Visited Israel during the second Intifada. Jerusalem was amazing, and am simply in awe of their air force, defence industry and the Mossad.
So yes, let's hope the Persians do rise up. Maybe we will yet live to see an Iran free of theocracy.

And yes, an uprising has been tried as recently as September 2022 . The theocrats are still in charge, it didn't work out.

At least 26 KC-135/KC-46 left the USA heading east yesterday. KC-46 inbound Ramstein.

Exercise Atlantic Trident starts today but is already supported by the Mildenhall tankers and European AAR resources _ and in any case would not near anywhere near this amount of assets.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fddf2d908f.png

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f807fefa85.png

As the US embassy in Israel has been hit, could be a "busy" time ahead.

Video. Multiple different launch points.

True. And Hafez al-Assad seized power 10 years before that.
Regimes can be toppled. I wonder if there is a Mossad plan to target members of the Council of Guardians?
Or whether they are banking on people doing it for them?
The biggest risk I think is that the window for the US to demolish Fordow will be reasonably narrow - Israel can't sustain this tempo of operations for long.
And it's at that point we're in danger of TACO quite frankly.

Bloody Hell!

The tankers are starting to landing the first 3 KC-46 landed at Rammstien, some of the KC-135 landed in the UK

Not everything needs to be done from the air.

Saw some tankers arriving in Rota southern Spain as well earlier. Tension is certainly rising. If reports of a hit on the US embassy are correct then it’s not hard to imagine possible next steps.

From one of many news sources:That would suggest that either the embassy was not targeted, or, if it was that the missile didn't quite hit the target.

US Embassy
 

I’m sure there are people in both camps who wish it had hit.

BV

I am baffled with this thread...

Clear evidence that Iran aren't building nuclear weapons...

Clear evidence that it was the Americans which put an end to Iranian democracy...

Israel fired the first shot and is being led by a war criminal...

Just look at the facts! It's clearly an unjust war which we're paying for

Ahhh - if it only were so easy........................ all sides (there are never only two in the Middle East) have a lot of previous.

Seeing those serial numbers on the KC-135's such as 57-1502 and other 1958, 1959...year groups, they have definitely earned their keep!

At least 32 USAF tankers deploying now

It makes you wonder what their intentions are for all that enriched Uranium? And why the IAEA has declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations?

"Aren't building" doesn't mean that they have neither the intention or capability of doing so.


How many years ago?


Identifying who fired the first shot is a fools game; this is just the latest phase of a regional conflict that has been going on for decades. And I'm not aware that the Iranian leadership are progressive liberals..... Just as a matter of interest, are Israel pledged to the complete destruction of the state of Iran?

I thought the US had moved their embassy to Jerusalem?

According to Google, the main embassy is in Jerusalem and there is a branch office in Tel Aviv

Uranium has to be enriched with U-235 to around 3%-5% to efficiently power a nuclear power station. That figure rises to around 90% to produce a reliable nuclear weapon. I believe it was the IAEA who recently stated that Iran was at 60% enrichment. That is clearly far more than is needed for nuclear power stations, no explanation has been offered for the 60% by Iran so what conclusions would a rational person draw from this information? Factor in that Iran has stated that it would like to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth and it is not difficult for that rational person to understand why Israel may feel entitled to ‘get its retaliation in first!’

More a diplomatic move than physical.

The Ambassador now has an office in the building in Jerusalem, though he splits his work between there and Tel Aviv. Just 50 out of the 1000 staff relocated to Jerusalem, the rest remain in Tel Aviv.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tel_Av..._United_States

“In December 2017, President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and ordered that the US Embassy be moved there. The US Embassy in Israel relocated to Arnona, the site of the consular section of the US Consulate General on May 14, 2018. A space was carved out in that building for office space for the Ambassador and a small staff.”….

I believe it's the aircraft that aren't tracked that would be more interesting...

If Isreal has air dominance over Iran, it could move SF in and out, perhaps bunker busters may only be 200lbs each

Orac
That is an amazing video. I wonder if any passengers witnessed that because I am sure it would be more than a little alarming.
Icarus 1

Iran has reportedly declared the Straits of Hormuz closed. That would seen to be a bit of an escalation.

"reserving the right to sink or seize any ships" would seem to be aspirational at best, and a red flag at worst to justify a bit of a tiff against their beloved leadership.

Is there enough popcorn for this one?

Iran effectively choking off China's energy won't go unnoticed in Beijing... nor anywhere else on the planet. It's one way to tender a resignation that doesn't involve 6th floor windows.

There is a symmetry in the fact that Iran supplied Russia Shaheed drones to attack Ukraine, and when Iran is getting some aggro from Israel it asks for support from Russia and gets a No response from Vlad the victorious. Given the effectiveness of anything coming out of Russia that is more offensive than vodka breath....

One would assume the Iranians could be selective about which vessels they allow through the straits.

But ultimately you suspect that Iran will end up as the big loser.

Like others in this thread, I have been wanting to visit Iran for decades, the Persian architectural heritage looks amazing, and having grown up in SoCal, I went to school with some Persians that escaped when the Shah was overthrown - wonderful people, and I wonder now, how many of them were connected with Grumman... but I digress!

The point of this post, half cheeky, half sincere, is: I hope the F-14s that Iran apparently still has operational were not blown up.

As one who prays for detente with the Persia, I think the symbolic power of have a USA Contingent of Peace escorted through Iranian skies by F-14s would be a profound reminder that we were once friendly, and I cannot think of a better way for us to re-establish our bonds than to have the men who delivered the F-14s (and those who built the Grumman housing in and around Isfahan) reunite with those majestic birds and the Persian men who have kept them flying. Crazier things have happened in this world!

If they actually do that, it could be a motivation to Israel to go ahead and sink Kharg Island

Can;t find that reported anywhere - just an Iranian MP threatening they might do so.

Reporting here has it that the Iranians are appealing to other Middle East nations and Europe to get Israel to de-escalate as the Israeli Air Force have total control over their airspace and are taking out their targets at will.

And from Fox. If you believe the in bold sentence you will believe anything. Do they really think Trump will call them?

Further reports are that State TV is not functioning after being bombed.

State TV back up and running in a few minutes according to the BBC

That taken from the statements by Abbas Araghchi.
The question is, why would the American president do that now?
I am coming up empty, at the present, for this reason:
A further weakening of Iran's capacity for war, or warlike actions, will be of benefit to most of the Gulf States whom the POTUS recently visited.

Well, apart from the civilians getting killed - if the Israelies are after regime change, they seem to be assuming that any replacement government will be an improvement. What if it is a worse, more rogue?