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ORAC 22nd October 2022 22:23

Get 60, fly 12 and use the rest as Hagar queens for spares, rotating airframes for fatigue management. Meanwhile reverse engineer parts or buy them off the Chinese…

NutLoose 26th October 2022 10:30

Looks like the regime is firked, well and truly..

A landmark event where the riot police are joining the protesters, without those to control the crowds they are screwed unless they use the military and that is the beginning of the end.



Lonewolf_50 26th October 2022 13:11


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11320247)
Looks like the regime is firked, well and truly.

Nutty, is this happening in just one city, or in numerous ones?
I have a suspicion that the IRGC is about to go into action, and it won't be pretty.
But, if the IRGC joins in with the protestors, that would be massively different.

NutLoose 26th October 2022 13:54

I don't know but have a look at these below, then the thread listed below that, that is some crowd, and the bottom link shows a lot more going on.
Got to be hundreds of thousands of them?



Main site, one clip fimed by a woman in her car she gets shot and killed!

https://twitter.com/hashtag/IranRevo...=hashtag_click

NutLoose 26th October 2022 13:56

Looking bad for the Government


Lana

Breaking news live from Iran : Universities, bazars and malls in many cities and some of the oil refineries are on strike today. Freedom and rights for all iranians. Down with religious dictatorship. #IranRevolution

dead_pan 26th October 2022 15:25

There's lots of misinformation (and a fair amount of wishful thinking) on social media. Dark powers at work....

It would be 'helpful' if the country did rise up and boot out the Ayatollah, but I'd caution about getting too exited about the future, given what happened in the region a decade or so ago.

MPN11 26th October 2022 15:49


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11320417)
There's lots of misinformation (and a fair amount of wishful thinking) on social media. Dark powers at work....

It would be 'helpful' if the country did rise up and boot out the Ayatollah, but I'd caution about getting too exited about the future, given what happened in the region a decade or so ago.

Sadly, removing an extremist theocratic dictatorship with robust security forces tends to the impossible. but one can hope [however unlikely it would be]. A tragedy for a civilised people that will, sadly, grind on for ages to come.

Lonewolf_50 26th October 2022 17:14


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11320388)
I don't know but have a look at these below, then the thread listed below that, that is some crowd, and the bottom link shows a lot more going on. Got to be hundreds of thousands of them?

Not gonna guess at numbers.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ff_E2ReX...jpg&name=small
Is this the beginning of an annual pilgrimage? Mahsa Amini (Zhini Amini?) was a martyr, or has become one - or so it would seem.

Main site, one clip fimed by a woman in her car she gets shot and killed!
What you describe didn't come up when I checked. Might have been taken down.
Recent report that security forces are opening fire

NutLoose 26th October 2022 17:53

Still there, see below, there is a translation that she says “they just shot a woman” then gets hit herself, it said she was in the car with her husband and her 7 year old son and she was killed.


NutLoose 27th October 2022 12:03

They never expected that response


NutLoose 27th October 2022 12:10

More that 100,000 attended the grave of the woman killed.


NutLoose 27th October 2022 12:13

Says it all really


Lonewolf_50 29th October 2022 03:14

From This Article Originally
I find the tone to be slightly alarmist in nature, but it's not a bad summary.

Russia’s expanding use of Iranian drones in Ukraine poses an increasing threat for the U.S. and its European allies as Tehran attempts to project military power beyond the Middle East. In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials say, Russia has launched more than 300 Iranian drones that have targeted military units, power plants and civilian buildings in the capital, Kyiv. The Ukrainian military said it has shot down more than 70% of the drones, but Ukrainian officials are asking the U.S. and NATO allies for more help to counter the threat. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has vowed to rush hundreds of drone jammers to Ukraine as part of a deepening effort to shore up Ukraine’s air defenses.
The wave of attacks has made Iran Moscow’s most important military ally in its faltering campaign in Ukraine and highlighted how Tehran has created one of the world’s most successful drone fleets despite years of Western sanctions.

“Drones have become the spearhead of Iranian power projection globally,” said Dr. James Rogers, an associate professor of war studies at the University of Southern Denmark. “Iran has one of the oldest and, arguably, one of the most efficient drone programs in the world.”

While the international community focused for years on trying to constrain Iran’s nuclear program, Tehran methodically built an army of drones that reached across the Middle East. Iran and its proxies have been accused of carrying out attacks on everything from U.S. forces in Syria and commercial ships in the Arabian Sea to Israeli cities and Saudi Arabia’s oil industry.
A drone flying over Kyiv during a Russian attack last week. Since 2015, Iran and its proxies have fired nearly 1,000 drones in attacks that have killed hundreds of people in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Ukraine and the Gulf of Oman, according to the Saudi military and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, which collects and analyzes information on protests and violence around the world. Besides Russia, Iran has also sold its drone technology to friendly governments, including Venezuela, Syria and Ethiopia, according to the U.S. Department of Defense.
Of course, you can argue that it's a case of Monkey See Monkey Do. Other nations, to include the US, Turkey, Israel, China, and others have used and developed drones and UAVs as part of their ability to use tech to add to their military capabilities.
And to project power beyond their borders.
The Iranians have done likewise.
Welcome to the brave new world, folks. The rest is in the spoiler for those interested.

Spoiler
 

Asturias56 29th October 2022 09:07

"it's a case of Monkey See Monkey Do."

same as N weapons - Iran is hammered for wanting to develop atomic weapons - by the USA, UK, France, Israel - and they have India, China, Russia & Pakistan in the neighbourhood

the only N armed nation they don't have to worry about is N Korea.

ORAC 29th October 2022 20:28

Two Iranian IL-76 destroyed yesterday on the pan at Damascus airport.

Reportedly by Israeli missile attack, but not acknowledged….

ORAC 1st November 2022 19:26

Saudi Arabia warns of an imminent attack by Iran. Reason for the possible attack is Iran's internal turmoil regarding the protests.
Honestly, an Iranian attack right now would be suicide. If they do it then it will start a cataclysmic reaction for Tehran.


Lonewolf_50 1st November 2022 20:33


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11322039)
"it's a case of Monkey See Monkey Do."
same as N weapons - Iran is hammered for wanting to develop atomic weapons

1. How about you not change the topic, and, specifically, don't lay that bull!!!! on me.
2. You will find that my position on Iran and nuke weapons, posted on PPRuNe forums even, is that I am not surprised they want them, and that given the neighborhood they live in, their desire for that deterrent is rational.
And that I don't care if they get them or not. If they do, all that the US has to do is add them to the target list.
And to be courteous, advise them via diplomatic memo that such esteemed status is a consequence of their own choices.
(Somewhere, a few years ago, I think I posted a proposed wording for such a comminique)
Hmm, I could have sworn I did something less tongue in cheek, but here's a sample)
Spoiler
 
Granted, it was posted in JB about 9 years ago, and took a bit of digging to find ...

ORAC 2nd November 2022 07:18

The Iranian Government has reportedly raised the “Flag of Revenge” above the Shahcheragh Holy Shrine in the City of Shiraz, this is the exact same Flag raised on the days before the Iranian Missile Attack on the U.S Military’s Ayn al-Asad Airbase in Iraq.

U.S and Saudi Intelligence announced earlier today that Iranian Forces are preparing to conduct “Strikes” on Oil Refineries inside of Saudi Arabia most likely to distract the International/Domestic Community from the Protests across the Country in recent weeks.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....321899477.jpeg

Lonewolf_50 2nd November 2022 14:40

Seems to remove the element of surprise, doesn't it? :confused:

Yellow Sun 2nd November 2022 15:50


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11324296)
Seems to remove the element of surprise, doesn't it? :confused:

inshallah?????

YS

Asturias56 2nd November 2022 17:19

"Seems to remove the element of surprise, doesn't it? "

probably required by their Insurance Company

albatross 2nd November 2022 18:06

Reminds me of the invasion of the Falklands.

”Sir. The Mothers of the tortured and missing are protesting in the streets!”

”Humm we need a distraction quickly! Suggestions?”

”I know sir. We could invade the Falklands! That will unite the country behind us!”

”Brilliant idea! The British will not do anything except make a protest to the UN. It’s a win-win for us.”

”I agree. What could possibly go wrong? Nothing. Should I make it so Sir?”

Same mindset here.

Lonewolf_50 3rd November 2022 12:20

Funny you should mention that, albatross. The US has announced that it is sending a strongly worded memo to the UN to get Iran off of the Commission on the Status of Women,


Mind you, they got voted on last year and took their seat for a 4 year stint in March.
You can't make this stuff up.

https://unwatch.org/iran-to-join-u-n...ts-commission/

albatross 3rd November 2022 17:48

Nothing like a “Strongly Worded Memo” to rock them back on their heels!
Must try that in a bar fight with a biker gang. I don’t imagine a good outcome.
I worked in Iran. Like everywhere else in this world the average person just wanted a good life, the ability to raise their children with a good education in a peaceful world. The demented fanatics in charge did not share this outlook.
I have seen the “makeup police” at work. Not a bunch to be admired, Just a gang of fanatical bullies given a bit of power to abuse the defenceless. Scum!


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11324825)
Funny you should mention that, albatross. The US has announced that it is sending a strongly worded memo to the UN to get Iran off of the Commission on the Status of Women,

https://twitter.com/VP/status/158784...-KiYM-g4awoyAg

Mind you, they got voted on last year and took their seat for a 4 year stint in March.
You can't make this stuff up.

https://unwatch.org/iran-to-join-u-n...ts-commission/


NutLoose 8th November 2022 11:52

If you kill one woman and it makes her a martyr and brings your country onto the streets. Imagine what this will do.


Iran's parliament voted by a majority (227 out of 290) to execute all protesters. The authorities emphasize that the rebels need to be taught the most "hard lesson".



Lonewolf_50 8th November 2022 14:14

I am wondering if that was something lost in translation. Is that "punish" all protestors or "execute" all protesters?

A different source says something different than your emotionally loaded tweet-source, Nutty. May I suggest that you dig a little deeper before you post stuff like that?

227 members of the 290-seat Parliament of Iran have called on the Judiciary to issue death sentences for people arrested during the ongoing anti-government protests.
That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

GlobalNav 8th November 2022 14:49


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11327320)
I am wondering if that was something lost in translation. Is that "punish" all protestors or "execute" all protesters?

A different source says something different than your emotionally loaded tweet-source, Nutty. May I suggest that you dig a little deeper before you post stuff like that?


That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

@LW-50. Perhaps you have a point, but what is the difference in intent or outcome, perhaps just the means?

NutLoose 8th November 2022 14:53

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202211068924

Iranian Lawmakers Urge Judiciary To Sentence Protesters To Death

Sunday, 11/06/20223 minutes

Author: Iran International Newsroom

Iran ProtestsHuman RightsA group of 227 parliament members in Iran has called on the Judiciary to issue death sentences for people arrested during the ongoing antigovernment protests.

The parliament, elected in a non-competitive election in February 2020, is packed with hardliners and Revolutionary Guard officers.

In a statement that was read out in the parliament on Sunday, the lawmakers called the protesters ‘mohareb’ -- which literally means warrior in Arabic, but in Islamic law or sharia it means ‘enemy of God’ that carries the death penalty. They also compared the protesters to members of ISIS, who "attack people's lives and property..."

The Iranian regime has so far charged several people with ‘moharebeh,’ “corruption on earth,” “assembly and collusion against national security” and “confrontation with the Islamic Republic” for participating in the protests.

Describing the current wave of popular protests as “riots,” the MPs claimed that “the US and other enemies” are inciting violence, organizing rallies, and providing financial support and weaponry to commandeer the protests. They also said “thugs and mobs” have killed tens of people and disrupted the security of the country.

Echoing the Islamic Republic’s propaganda line, the lawmakers said that “the enemies have been defeated in Iraq, Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and Yemen” therefore they organized the “riots” as a reaction to “victories of the Islamic Republic.”

Without mentioning any individuals or groups, the hardline lawmakers also asked the judiciary to take legal actions against “the politicians who incited the rioters.”

Mohammd Bagher Ghalibaf, parliament speaker in an undated phot with IRGC's Qasem Soleimani

Earlier in the parliament session, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Qalibaf) said that main elements of Mossad, CIA and their allied groups are behind the unrest in the country.

Late in October, hardliner MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, also a high ranking IRGC officer, implicitly threatened that the government will respond differently to the ongoing protests from now on.

While protests continue across Iran, the Islamic Republic’s Judiciary has also announced that it has indicted over 1,000 people who were arrested during the demonstrations.

Authorities have been claiming that “separatists” and “instigators” are behind the efforts to overthrow the government and break Iran into areas controlled by ethnic groups, a claim routinely denied by Iranians on streets and social media.

The claim that protests are instigated by foreign enemies was first made by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and loyal officials now repeat his conspiracy theory.

President Ebrahim Raisi on October 25 accused “enemies of the Islamic Republic” of fomenting the protests, echoing what Khamenei said a day earlier. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf in turn vowed that parliament would take action to change the ways of the morality police in a bid to calm the protesters.

“Death sentences against people for exercising their right to freedom of expression, after the killings of peaceful protesters, abductions and gunning down children, and other atrocities, indicate a government that is out of control and willing to quash protests at any cost,” said a statement by Center for Human Rights in Iran.

The Norway-based human rights organization also expressed concern regarding the fate of the detained protesters saying, “dozens of them have been charged with the security-related charges of ‘moharebeh’ and ‘corruption on earth’ which carry the death penalty.”

The Islamic Republic’s history and current evidence indicate that they intend to use the death penalty as a tool of political repression to intimidate their opposition.

Earlier in November, 40 Iranian lawyers issued a statement saying most people no longer want the Islamic Republic and called on their peers to speak up and defend the people.

Iran has been gripped by protests since the death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian of Kurdish origin who had been arrested on September 13 for allegedly breaching the Islamic dress code and died three days later from severe head trauma. Protests spread fueled by public outrage over a crackdown that led to the deaths of other young men, women, and children. Now in their seventh week, the protests show no sign of ending.

NutLoose 8th November 2022 14:58


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11327320)
That's still harsh and nasty, but it's not quite 'execute them all' as presented in your post.
The Judiciary may decline to rule as they have been encouraged to. Or they may take it as a mandate.
We'll see.

Where did I say that? I think the poster in the thread has just worded it poorly


If you kill one woman and it makes her a martyr and brings your country onto the streets. Imagine what this will do.

MPN11 8th November 2022 14:58

Thanks for the amplification, Nutloose.

NutLoose 8th November 2022 15:44

We aim to please.

Lonewolf_50 8th November 2022 17:32


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11327348)
@LW-50. Perhaps you have a point, but what is the difference in intent or outcome, perhaps just the means?

The order of magnitude of the body count, as I see it. If "execute" all protesters includes anyone protesting ,and not just those who have been so far arrested, you are looking at 100's of thousands of people being gunned down. If it is confined to those already arrested and charged, it's still a lot of people, but a few orders of magnitude smaller. While I am not sure that the judges will go along with this, that's a guess on my part and if I am wrong the body bag count will be considerable. :uhoh:

Originally Posted by iranintel.com article
Late in October, hardliner MP Mohammad Esmail Kowsari, also a high ranking IRGC officer, implicitly threatened that the government will respond differently to the ongoing protests from now on. While protests continue across Iran, the Islamic Republic’s Judiciary has also announced that it has indicted over 1,000 people who were arrested during the demonstrations.

I suspect that they have arrested more than those thousand who have already been indicted.

Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11327354)
Where did I say that? I think the poster in the thread has just worded it poorly

So you cut and paste it, without thinking it through.
You'd have been better off to post that article (by the way, thank you for that one, :ok: it's much better presented and paints a clearer picture) than that badly worded tweet.

MPN11 8th November 2022 17:47

OK … peace restored … moving on ….

Lonewolf_50 10th November 2022 15:54

Iran is proud of its new hypersonic missile.
Iran claims it has developed a hypersonic missile (msn.com)

Tehran — Iran has developed a hypersonic missile capable of penetrating all defense systems, General Amirali Hajizadeh, the commander of its Revolutionary Guards aerospace unit, claimed on Thursday.
Hypersonic missiles, like traditional ballistic missiles which can deliver nuclear weapons, can fly more than five times the speed of sound.
"This hypersonic ballistic missile was developed to counter air defense shields," Hajizadeh said, quoted by Iran's Fars news agency. "It will be able to breach all the systems of anti-missile defense."
The general said he believed it would be decades before a system capable of intercepting the missile was developed, declaring it "a great generational leap in the field of missiles."
As an old pistol instructor used to advise me: speed is fine but accuracy is final. ;)
I wonder how good the guidance systems are.

Lonewolf_50 10th November 2022 21:06

As a follow up to "how many people does the legislature want to see executed for protesting" it would appear to be "about 15,000." (If all who have been arrested were to be so treated).


Lonewolf_50 14th November 2022 12:37

Do Iranians want the Shah back? Don't think so. With that said, under the Shah things were a bit less restrictive.


BEagle 14th November 2022 14:31

I was on a flight from Friedrichshafen to Frankfurt during a World Cup footie time. The other passengers in biz class were the Iranian national team and their minder. Quiet and polite to a man.

Waiting to greet them at FRA were a number of Iranian supporters - including some young women wearing the Iranian flag with coloured bands on their faces reflecting their national pride. NO-ONE wearing any hideous black bag or hood. If they'd appeared like that in Iran, they'd have been slung in jail. What an appalling state of affairs.

ORAC 16th November 2022 16:03

The revolutionaries report that they eliminated the Iranian colonel of the IRGC, Reza Elmasi. He coordinated the crackdown on protests.

​​​​​​​

Lonewolf_50 16th November 2022 16:32


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11331889)
The revolutionaries report that they eliminated the Iranian colonel of the IRGC, Reza Elmasi. He coordinated the crackdown on protests.

What are the odds that the regime takes that lying down? :bored:

Lyneham Lad 16th November 2022 17:15

Resumption of low-level hostilities?

Article in The Times today.

Israeli-owned oil tanker hit by drone strike in the Arabian Sea


An Israeli-owned oil tanker has been hit by an explosive drone in the Arabian Sea, signalling that a lull in hostilities between rival Middle East powers may be over.

The strike on the Pacific Zircon caused only minor damage according to its owner, the Singapore-based Eastern Pacific Shipping.


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