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DogTailRed2 27th March 2026 15:26


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 12059969)
Saw an analysis of missile usage a few days ago which suggested that over 900 Patriots had been used in March, more than those used over four years in Ukraine. I do not remember the exact numbers quoted but it was close to a thousand at that point; if someone has more reliable figures, please post them.

That's possibly a reflection on the fact that the West does not have any anti drone defences so has to use the top tier missiles to intercept them. Where as Ukraine has developed anti drone technology and even shoots them down with rifles.

ORAC 27th March 2026 15:34


​​​​​​​BREAKING: Iranian Mehr News Agency reports airstrikes hit Iran’s key steel facilities, Khuzestan Steel in Ahvaz and Mobarakeh Steel near Isfahan, and also struck Mobarakeh’s power plant. Mobarakeh Steel is Iran’s largest steelmaker and produces over half of the country’s steel output.

​​​​​​​Israeli forces are increasingly striking Iranian industrial targets, hitting the Khouzestan Steel Plant near Ahvaz and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan today. The strikes were directly ordered by Israeli leadership, and are expected to heavily damage the Iranian economy.
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ed6a8042fa.png

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3bc08e82f4.png
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ORAC 27th March 2026 15:38


Saw an analysis of missile usage a few days ago which suggested that over 900 Patriots had been used in March, more than those used over four years in Ukraine. I do not remember the exact numbers quoted but it was close to a thousand at that point; if someone has more reliable figures, please post them.
See below.

​​​​​​​RUSI data was based on the first 16 days.

I estimate the number of days remaining as of today assuming the same daily rate held since.* Here are some findings.

1. Israel is basically out of Arrow interceptors, close to running out of David’s sling, and maybe 10 days of THAAD interceptors. This may be why even non-hypersonic and non-terminally maneuvering missiles are getting through more.

2. US interceptors are also running low. THAAD is expected to run out in 2 weeks. SMs and Patriots may last 2 months.

3. Israel has essentially run out of offensive long-range missiles. The US is in a better place, but then the US has global responsibilities.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-res...erns-endurance

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2a4afdc80e.png

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7824345fd4.png
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https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....64791c9b1d.png
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larssnowpharter 27th March 2026 15:47

An unconfirmed report by Reuters suggests the US can only account for one third of Iranian missiles being destroyed. Perhaps another third damaged or in need of repair. An independent expert suggests that Iran has about 30% of its missiles remaining. Sorry can't post the link.

clel72 27th March 2026 16:11

Somebody needs to explain percentages to RUSI


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 12059981)
See below.





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DogTailRed2 27th March 2026 16:15


Originally Posted by larssnowpharter (Post 12059986)
An unconfirmed report by Reuters suggests the US can only account for one third of Iranian missiles being destroyed. Perhaps another third damaged or in need of repair. An independent expert suggests that Iran has about 30% of its missiles remaining. Sorry can't post the link.

What about drones? They can have a 1000km range and do a lot of damage to ground troops. Putin is supplying them. Iran could be stockpiling to repel a ground invasion?

Lonewolf_50 27th March 2026 17:08


U.S. Central Command said on Friday, March 27, that "U.S. forces continue to eliminate the Iranian regime’s ability to project military power beyond its borders."
There's a cryptic statement. :confused: I think that what they are referring to is attacks on the various Gulf States, but that's me guessing.

The CENTCOM home page has some info, but they usually lag a day or two in updating ops summaries during current ops.
The last "Commander's Update" was posted on 25 March.
https://www.centcom.mil/OPERATIONS-A...SES/EPIC-FURY/

Something I noticed in their summary of Operation Epic Fury:
Targets Struck: 9,000+
Combat Flights: 9,000+
Iranian Vessels Damaged or Destroyed: 140+

There is a list of "US Assets Employed" (covers air and naval assets that we have all discussed) as well as a bland reference to "Counter Drone Systems" which is separate from anti air missiles (Patriots, THAAD) and then at the bottom

...and special capabilities we can't list here!
They also listed, in their Land assets:
M-142 HMARS; High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems.

I have a feeling that the Land Assets list will expand soon.

DogTailRed2 27th March 2026 17:27


Originally Posted by noalign (Post 12060008)
Are these drones that would have otherwise been used on the Ukrainians?

From what I have heard the Russians are knocking out some 9000 per month. They have plenty.

RatherBeFlying 27th March 2026 17:29

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fa12a560d4.png
Strategic Consequences coming home to roost

NYTimes

NutLoose 27th March 2026 18:00

Iran is believed only to have lost or fired 33% 0f their ballistic missiles according to US intelligence.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2026-03-27/

Canary Boy 27th March 2026 18:07

Marco Rubio announces that the war will be over in a matter of a few short weeks. Well ahead of schedule and not requiring use of ground troops. Objectives more or less completely achieved. We’ll see. Can’t argue about the objectives though, because nobody has any idea what they are/were.

Lonewolf_50 27th March 2026 18:17


Originally Posted by Canary Boy (Post 12060064)
Marco Rubio announces that the war will be over in a matter of a few short weeks. Well ahead of schedule and not requiring use of ground troops. Objectives more or less completely achieved. We’ll see. Can’t argue about the objectives though, because nobody has any idea what they are/were.

Was that today? I have this from Reuters: is this the same thing you saw?

Originally Posted by Reuters
PARIS, March 27 (Reuters) - Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday the United States could achieve its objectives in Iran without the use of any ground troops and expected its operation to conclude in a matter of weeks, despite recent deployments of additional forces to the region. Rubio spoke to reporters before returning to the U.S. after he discussed with G7 foreign ministers in France the conflict launched by the U.S. and Israel late last month.

Rubio said the U.S. was achieving its objectives in the war - which he said were destroying Iran's missile and drone capabilities and factories to produce those weapons, as well as its navy and its air force - and expected to conclude its operation in "weeks, not months".
"We are ahead of schedule on most of them, and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any," Rubio said.

Rubio said recent deployments of thousands more troops to the region were intended to give President Donald Trump options to respond to contingencies in the conflict, but declined to go into operational details.
"In terms of why there's deployments, number one, the President has to be prepared for multiple contingencies... We are always going to be prepared to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge," he said.

Rubio also said Iran may decide to set up a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz and insisted that European and Asian countries that benefit from trade through the waterway should contribute to efforts to secure free passage through the strait once the conflict ends.

I think they already set up a toll booth, Mister Secretary. ;)

The news casters are sometime dazzling in their cluelessness.

Originally Posted by CNN
Iran makes new threats against US troops in region ]Iran is threatening to target U.S. service members who are now forced to stay in hotels and office spaces across the Middle East. Jim Sciutto reports on OutFront.

Of course Iran is making those treats. FFS, they've been under aerial attack for 28 days. Did someone think they would take this lying down?

dead_pan 27th March 2026 18:32

Report circulating that the US may have lost another 3 KC135s in a drone or ballistic missiles strike.

Wokkafans 27th March 2026 18:41

Ref post #4406


Canary Boy 27th March 2026 18:47

LW - thanks for putting a bit more meat on the bones! That detail wasn’t included in the news report I read. Interesting that the prime objective of destroying the nuclear capability was omitted.

EDLB 27th March 2026 18:56

So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?

langleybaston 27th March 2026 19:15


Originally Posted by EDLB (Post 12060083)
So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?

I don't think it really believes it can protect shipping. Neither do I.
Hence the DT waffling and "here's another fine mess you've gotten me into!".

DogTailRed2 27th March 2026 19:31

If Ukraine has taught us anything it's that kit and personnel out in the open is vulnerable especially when the Ruskies are sending you targeting information.
Knock out the tankers and you reduce the USA's ability to provide air power. This will force more anti-air to be pulled from other areas to protect these bases.
This is a proxy war and China, Russia will do all they can to support Iran and weaken the West for the eventual push towards Europe and Taiwan.

langleybaston 27th March 2026 19:38


Originally Posted by DogTailRed2 (Post 12060095)
If Ukraine has taught us anything it's that kit and personnel out in the open is venerable especially when the Ruskies are sending you targeting information.
.

The aircraft might be old but its not that old.
Venereal perhaps?

GlobalNav 27th March 2026 19:39


Originally Posted by EDLB (Post 12060083)
So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?

It's called "dumb as dirt". Parking unprotected aircraft side by side within known range of enemy action and plenty examples of them taking it. Geeez. But we are winning the war of course, meeting all of our objectives ahead schedule and Iran's military capability all but utterly destroyed. So, who is launching the missiles? A puzzle for sure.


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