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For all the current rumours of Trump calling off his war, remember he is mercurial and flip-flops on an almost daily basis - and he still has a USMC ARG heading for the Gulf at top speed, due to arrive around Monday.
I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver": "Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s. "An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn? "As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise. "What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it. "It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives. "Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are. "We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys." |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12055838)
There has been some suggestion that one of the submarines, HMS Anson, could be brought back from Australia to the Gulf to help defend British troops against Iranian attacks in the region….. |
ORAC:
For all the current rumours of Trump calling off his war, remember he is mercurial and flip-flops on an almost daily basis - and he still has a USMC ARG heading for the Gulf at top speed, due to arrive around Monday. What will that be, as regards this war that he decided was a good idea one day three weeks ago? I don't know, and I doubt he does either. Stay tuned. Sowing confusion amongst his emenies and allies seems to be the Strategery. :p Is he going to try and take Karg Island with a MEU? Bold, or maybe mad, and possibly a step too far...let's see what Monday brings. |
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/how-...de-1.500480847
Nothing counter to current capabilities and doctrine. |
Back to the War. As a direct result of this war, something else in the region has increased the number of displaced persons.
We do have another thread on that detail, but without this little war, that little escalation would not have happened. This attack on Iran (whether one is for it or against it) has had numerous ripple effects that I am not sure were considered before it began...or they were hand waved away. Again, come back in a week and a half. Logistically, that may be when an "operational pause" happens. Go back 35 years. The 100 hour War. They didn't just stop because of the highway of death videos. It was also a case of simple exhaustion by quite a few of the folks on the ground. |
Just read this at Aljazeera...any further info??
" US-UK military base on Diego Garcia targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles: ReportThe island of Diego Garcia, which hosts a joint US and British military base, has been targeted by Iran with at least two mid-range ballistic missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal.The report said that one of the missiles failed mid-flight while the other was hit by a US interceptor fired from a warship. Diego Garcia is located south of the equator in the central Indian Ocean. The Reuters news agency said the White House and British embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment regarding the report. |
@JanetFlight
I believe that. The enemy shoots back. One may or may not like who is running Iran, but they are not stupid. Also, the SM family of Surface to Air Missiles have been able to intercept Ballistic Missiles since Aegis was invented. Fun Fact: During the Cold War, a patch was put into the Aegis Weapons System to not do that due to the ABM treaty. Some years ago, that patch was removed due to the ABM treaty being overcome by events when the Wall fell. |
Salute!
Hey guys! Be nice. O.K. to strongly disagree with tactics and strategy, and personal experience adds flavor and an amount of credibility/rationale, but ad hominen crapola is poor form. I think many folks think too highly of Kharg Island and should not believe it will be From our experience in these matters, you don't need to storm the beaches and have an outpost on every street corner. The complex has very visible weak points that can indeed be eliminated by air, and are not too hard to deal with by special ops folks if need be. Secondly, although well over 90% of the country's oil is passing thru that bottle neck, the dedicated fringe religious element in charge there for over 40 years coulld care less about a viable economy for the masses they kill for demonstrating or defecting. Their goal is not economi domination but religious. The masses could revert to 19th century conditions and such for all they care. The oil $$ helped advance the development of nuclear weaponry despite international, but inneffective agreements, and the $$ did not for big social programs or better highways/health care, manufacturing or good trading deals/commerce. It's just a cryin' shame more pipelines into Oman were not built. China has a fair say on the existing pipline/port facilities that bypass Homuz now, but maybe anothe two or three Gulf states will help with more. loggin' Gums... |
gums, they are sending in a MEU. Used to be that might not be expected but now in the "Information Age" the element of surprise is harder to harness.
Unless Iran's leadership feels a vice grip pinch on their nuts, they are not gonna stand down. Too proud, too stubborn. Human Psychology 101. |
For those of you who know who Simon Whistler is, he just did a brilliant analysis of the strikes on Kargh Island, and the strikes in Saudi Arabia. I think he nailed it.
His "this was merely the opening act" was chilling, but he made a good case for his assessment. |
:} IF 'mooch' would stop yapping at the beginning we may get: Deep Intel on the F-35 Hit over Iran
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Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. One missile failed in flight, the other was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.
Makes the range of the Iranian IRBM ~3800km+, far enough to target sites into Central Europe. 4000Km is long enough to reach Fairford…. Or London. (The great circle distance between Tabriz in NW Iran and London is 3900Km*) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../129712958.cms How Iran targeted US, UK base Diego Garcia 4,000km away in Indian Ocean https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ts-2026-03-21/ Iran targeted but did not hit Diego Garcia base with missiles, WSJ reports March 20 (Reuters) - Iran fired two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia but did !not hit the U.S.-U.K. military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing multiple U.S. officials. One of the missiles failed in flight, while a U.S. warship fired an SM-3 interceptor at the other, although it could not be determined !if the interception succeeded, the newspaper said. The Journal did not specify when the missiles were fired. The White House and the British embassy in Washington and Ministry of Defence did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12055942)
Iran fired a pair of intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. One missile failed in flight, the other was engaged by a US Navy destroyer using an SM-3 missile.
Makes the range of the Iranian IRBM ~3800km+, far enough to target sites into Central Europe. 4000Km is long enough to reach Fairford…. Or London. (The great circle distance between Tabriz in NW Iran and London is 3900Km*) https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../129712958.cms How Iran targeted US, UK base Diego Garcia 4,000km away in Indian Ocean https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ts-2026-03-21/ * https://www.greatcirclemap.com/?routes=TBZ-LHR |
When is 100% not 100%
Originally Posted by artee
(Post 12055960)
Food for thought, given that the UK has effectively no anti-ballistic missile defence, bar any T45s that may be available.
The latest reports that US may declare victory and mosey off back to CONUS pose some interesting challenges. Facts - the daily launches of missiles and drones clearly demonstrate that Iran's capability while degraded remains potent enough to inflict pressure across the region. If the US retires, it will fall on the regional powers to "negotiate" the near term future with Iran. They will need support from those that depend on the Gulf for petroleum and by-products. Huge increase in Chinese presence/influence anyone? The economic carnage resulting from US action is baked in - it doesn't go away because the USN is over the horizon heading home. It will reverberate for years. The damage is done. The terrorist threat is hugely increased in the West and will remain so for a generation. Do we need another SDR? |
If the US does pull out of Iran and this isn't just smoke and mirrors pending a land war and Europe gets involved that plays right into the hand of Putin.
The UK and Europe gets bogged down in Iran. Putin makes a move for Estonia, it's already using Psy-Ops on them. China makes a move for Taiwan. Perfect strom. |
Food for thought, given that the UK has effectively no anti-ballistic missile defence, bar any T45s that may be available. 1. A missile that range is outside the current engagement envelope of the T45 Aster 1 missile envelope, the planned upgrade to enable it won’t be done till the mid-2030s*. 2. With Dragon in the Med the only available T45 is Duncan, but th question is does she have missiles on board or would she have to go to Gibraltar to replenish. 3. Does the UK a suitably robust ABM C3 net to link Fylingdales BMEWS, T45 and No 10 to enable target detection, identification, decision making and interception with the missile time of flight. * https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...l#post12049975 |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12055796)
Cheers Donny, I'm sure the West will be delighted. "But other nations must guard Hormuz" (the italics from the BBC thing quoted by DTR2 and added for context by me)
Originally Posted by Wyntor
(Post 12055973)
......... The latest reports that US may declare victory and mosey off back to CONUS pose some interesting challenges. ............. If the US retires, it will fall on the regional powers to "negotiate" the near term future with Iran. They will need support from those that depend on the Gulf for petroleum and by-products. ......................
Simplistic? Not if all US forces high-tailed it back to CONUS. Likely? Who the hell knows in these crazy times ....... Thinks, would I get a Nobel Peace Prize for the above suggestion? :ok:
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12055987)
If the US does pull out of Iran and this isn't just smoke and mirrors pending a land war and Europe gets involved that plays right into the hand of Putin. Putin makes a move for Estonia, it's already using Psy-Ops on them.
China makes a move for Taiwan. Perfect storm. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/vlad...trump-11246050 |
Do you suggest a land war?
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The objective needs to be remove the regime from power. Once it is gone there won't be a nuclear programme or long range missile programme to worry about.
The regime should have never been allowed into power in the first place. If the useless Jimmy Carter had actually done something in 1979 we would not have to deal with this now. It would have been far simpler back then. Yet again it appears the Iranian people will be abandoned to their fate and left under the control of the regime. Strange that Saddam, Gaddafi and Assad were all removed but many in the western establishment want to leave the regime in Tehran in power. I wonder why it is the regime has such support, my Iranian friends often ask me the same question. |
An IRBM or ICBM without precision guidance and conventional ammunition is a waste of resources. To hit and destroy a bomber or other valuable target without terminal guidance of some kind, like lighting the traget with a laser is less likely than a hole in one in golf. The real danger comes when Iran develops working precision guidance systems.
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