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Well they could swing it around and use it all on someone else, but I can’t think of any other large candidate targets around there.
And Israel can at any point declare further ‘peace’ talks pointless, and they will surely not allow this prime opportunity to hammer Iran to slip away. |
I doubt that Israel will need to be involved in airborne ops, given that Iran's Air Defence Radar was effectively neutralised by them on their last outing. Israeli intelligence and saboteurs on the ground in Iran will be invaluable, however.
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Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12039601)
If this intended, as suggested, as more of a sustained campaign I would expect they would deploy to DG
UK holds off approval for US to use its bases in any Iran strike - Bloomberg |
Not sure, under th terms of the lease agreement, if the UK has that authority. In fact, it was a particular point raised by the House of Commons that, when the renewal of the treaty became due, that such restrictions be added - but I am unable to find any document or report that any such restrictions were agreed prior to the lease renewal automatically rolling over in 2016.
https://publications.parliament.uk/p...7/37704.htm#a3 While the 1966, 1972 and 1976 Agreements relating to use of Diego Garcia impose obligations on the US relating to use of the Territory[[url=https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmselect/cmfaff/377/37704.htm#note25]25] and make provision for (amongst other things) the exercise of criminal jurisdiction, employment of personnel, customs duties, access to the island, and conservation of flora and fauna, they do not impose any clear requirement upon the US to seek permission for a highly sensitive activity such as rendition, or even to support combat operations. The requirement which the FCO referred to in the extract from evidence to the previous Committee, cited above, appears to be entirely informal. This seems to us to be an unsatisfactory gap in the UK's formal oversight of the use of Diego Garcia by the US for defence purposes. 17. We believe that steps need to be taken to restore public confidence that the UK exercises effective control over the British Indian Ocean Territory. We recommend that, if the 1966 Agreement on Availability for Defence Purposes of the British Indian Ocean Territory is to be rolled over from 2016, the text of the Agreement should be revised. It should specify that any extraordinary use of the US base or facilities, such as combat operations or any other politically sensitive activity, requires prior approval from the UK Government; and it should state explicitly that the British Indian Ocean Territory should not be used for rendition unless authority has first been granted by the UK Government, on a case by case basis. |
10 days
Trump has given them 10 days
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I wasn't sure if this should be here or in the NATO-Russia thread. But since it's also Iranian....
BREAKING: Danish authorities have detained the 226-meter container ship Nora, now flying the Iranian flag, east of Aalbæk, after it was found not properly registered with its claimed flag state. Previously sailing under the Comorian flag, the vessel suddenly changed its registration to Iran, raising immediate concerns. T he ship, formerly named Cerus, is believed to be part of the so-called shadow fleet, reportedly operated by Iranian businessman Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani, the son of a senior Iranian regime official. Tracking data shows Nora repeatedly sailed north of Skagen and then into Russian waters off St. Petersburg, where it systematically turned off its AIS tracking from January 13th to 16th, disappearing from monitoring systems. After moving back through the Baltic, it stalled in international waters between Denmark and Norway on January 22nd before anchoring in the Kattegat, 28 kilometers east of Aalbæk. During this period, it received a brief inspection from the Danish patrol ship P520 Diana, while Danish naval drones monitored the surrounding waters. The Danish Maritime Authority confirms the vessel has been detained until proper registration is verified, citing both flag state irregularities and its suspicious behavior. U.S. authorities have flagged Nora as part of a network of shadow fleet ships used for covert shipments, including sanctions evasion, and Shamkhani is reported to run a large, illegal shipping operation connected to Iranian strategic interests |
A U.S. Air Force C-32B Gatekeeper with Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) landed earlier today in Tel Aviv, Israel. The C-32B has been associated with the 150th Special Operations Squadron out of Joint Base McGuire, and is used to respond to government crisis response activities and support CIA Special Activities. |
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12039816)
Trump has given them 10 days
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ORAC at #2706, good work for finding that. It seems that in 2016 it slipped through the cracks and the USA has carte blanche to operate whatever they like out of DG. But then we all assumed that was the case anyway...
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Which is now eight.The coil is cocked. The only thing that can stop it is Iran being trustworthy. In other words----8 days.
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A concise briefing on the world order; Iran, in the second discussion.
Follow the embedded links for further detail and reflect that these 'individual' activities are actually simultaneous events directed centrally. From this stems the inter-linked military activity. https://theconversationuk.cmail20.co...-nirulyukid-r/ |
“Iran used to allow inspections as well before Trump got rid of the Obama era deal. Wouldn’t it be nice if we’d kept them?”
Absolutely, if they actually prevented countries from developing weapons outside the NPT but that hasn’t happened. I certainly don’t know how to get the nuclear genie back in the bottle but a largely voluntary system of inspections hasn’t worked. Maybe South Africa is the template for Iran. Getting rid of a terrible system of governance is proving harder for the people of Iran but hopefully they manage it and then choose to abandon any nuclear weapons program they may have. |
Meanwhile, elsewhere in the Middle East:
Saudi Arabia may have uranium enrichment under proposed deal with US, arms control experts warn | The Independent |
IIRC the late Ayatollah Kohmeni said that using atomic weapons would be an act of Satan
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12040217)
IIRC the late Ayatollah Kohmeni said that using atomic weapons would be an act of Satan
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The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and its escorts have transited the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the western Mediterranean Sea on their way eastbound towards the Middle East.
https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....6b083d93d3.png |
Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS
(Post 12040222)
He said lots of things.
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He also issued a fatwa against the production and use of nuclear weapons - since the current extant programme started under his regime I think some doublethink might have been involved...
https://tinyurl.com/2vzet36v The nuclear fatwa that wasn’t—how Iran sold the world a false narrative |
MissChief, in a general sense deception is necessary in war.
We had a Ukranian exchange/liaison officer (a bit over 30 years ago) explain to us a few things about Soviet doctrine and maskirovka, which he summed up as (roughly) "If you don't have a deception plan you don't have a plan." I have been using that line ever since in various discussions of military operations. I wonder if I owe him royalty payments?
Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12039638)
Does illustrate how important the US bases in Europe are, for all those NATO naysayers stateside.
Originally Posted by 51bravo
(Post 12039713)
Well we can all agree, it cant be a bluff anymore, the pure inertia is past V1 by now.
Originally Posted by Asturias56
(Post 12039816)
Trump has given them 10 days
I suspect that the leadership in Iran is keenly aware of that, and are in this case not resting on their heels. As to whatever the Ayatollah Ruhullah Khomeini said: he's dead. There's been a new sheriff in town for over 35 years. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is the Supreme Leader of Iran, a position he has held since 1989 - in other words, he's been in charge about three and a half times as long as the founder of the Islamic Republic ever was. I'd pay more attention to what he has to say. As to Israeli involvement: I doubt that they'll play this time around. They are not part of the negotiating group, and as I read this current round of saber rattling (yes, it may result in air strikes) it is meant to influence the current talks between the US and Iran. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12040229)
The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) and its escorts have transited the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the western Mediterranean Sea on their way eastbound towards the Middle East.
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