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The Times of Israel article.
TLDR summary: The US can easily take Kharg Island, but then the Iranians will beat the !!!!! out of them with FPV and Shahed drones, which they're not currently set up and trained to defend against. If they want to stop Iranian oil exports it would easier to stop and seize tankers after they leave and/or bomb the oil export equipment on the island. My comment - main customer is China who have moved a naval force into the Gulf to escort their tankers inbound and outbound, I don't think stopping the tankers is a realistic option as it risks a confrontation with China. https://www.timesofisrael.com/taking...etter-options/ Taking Kharg Island is seen as key to opening Hormuz. There are better options |
Saudi is reportedly urging the US to up the ante and finish the job (whatever that means). I wonder how much of this is down to the perceived long term threat, or more a wish to.hammer that troublesome branch of Islam which had been showing them up over the past few decades (in the eyes of the "Arab street")?
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Week 5....things are getting wobbly
POTUS statements are erratic....that's how he is. We should not look to these statements for the future direction of things.
Contrarian market traders may however see patterns. It is more interesting to follow CENTCOM briefings and watch the body language and commentary of those around the President. I get the impression there is a major wobble coming. The US air campaign is running into a cul-de-sac. It has trashed the vast majority of stuff it can trash in the military sense. What the Iranians have left is well dispersed, well hidden and the LoE required for further degradation of their capability is huge. And you cant bomb an ideology. However, intuitively, they don't need to preserve much to put the Strait at risk going forward. The US is faced with a very difficult choice. The economic impact is building by the day, at home and abroad. The buffer of oil at sea before the war and the release from strategic reserves is getting depleted rapidly. With no resolution, we are heading for rationing and $150 oil. Lucky it's Summer for a few months. The US options going forward are all pretty bad. Anything involving boots on the ground looks like a !!!!! show in the making. It's too hot to put USN in the Strait and Air looks increasingly limited in the context of Iran only needing to get lucky with the odd pop up. Everyone will agree....something will need to be done...but what? Well, something, obviously. I worry that US political leadership will bounce US military into another "no good option" scenario. If only the politicos in charge weren't a few kangaroos short in the top paddock. |
Posted yesterday so I would expect at least 4 out of the remaining 6 to leave today.
Interesting about the probe being "sheared off". Doesn't the probe have a replaceable frangible tip like all the others I've known? In which case it's just a matter of an AOG delivery and fitting. USAF United States Air Force - Coronet East Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 2x #AE07BA 62-3557 - GOLD 87 #AE035D 58-0063 - GOLD 88 + MAZDA 31-34 Flt 4x F-35Cs Four U.S. Marine Corps F-35Cs departed RAF Lakenheath this morning supported by KC-135s GOLD 87 and GOLD 88. They had made an attempt at departing yesterday, but were unable due to flight plan issues. MAZDA 31-35 flight arrived at Lakenheath on Tuesday night, and MAZDA 41-45 arrived last night. MAZDA 34 had an issue on the ground today and was replaced with a jet from last night, and one of the jets that arrived last night had it's fuel probe sheered off. This leaves us with 6 F-35Cs still at RAF Lakenheath. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12059790)
The Times of Israel article.
TLDR summary: The US can easily take Kharg Island, but then the Iranians will beat the !!!!! out of them with FPV and Shahed drones, which they're not currently set up and trained to defend against. If they want to stop Iranian oil exports it would easier to stop and seize tankers after they leave and/or bomb the oil export equipment on the island. My comment - main customer is China who have moved a naval force into the Gulf to escort their tankers inbound and outbound, I don't think stopping the tankers is a realistic option as it risks a confrontation with China. https://www.timesofisrael.com/taking...etter-options/ Taking Kharg Island is seen as key to opening Hormuz. There are better options |
Iran’s state-backed Fars News Agency has released a target list of energy infrastructure within the United Arab Emirates (UAE) that they plan to strike if the U.S. conducts a ground operation against the strategically and economically important Kharg Island or any other Iranian territory. These include desalination plants, nuclear power plants, and other power hubs across the UAE. |
Originally Posted by artee
(Post 12059822)
The optics aren't great if the Chinese Navy are seen to be ensuring safe passage and the US Navy are nowhere to be seen.
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More Bombers Arrive to RAF Fairford FreeIran! --- Operation EPIC FURY --- A total of 3 additional B-1B "Lancer" bombers, operating as callsigns "PURSE33", "PURSE34" and "PURSE35" have arrived at RAF Fairford (EGVA) this afternoon, bringing the total US bomber fleet to 21 aircraft. New arrivals: B-1B "PURSE33" 85-0060 #AE6BD1 "Dakota Posse" B-1B "PURSE34" 86-0134 #AE6C05 "Thunderbird" B-1B "PURSE35" 85-0069 #AE6BD0 "Avenger" This means there are now: B-52H "Stratofortress" x 6 B-1B "Lancer" x 15 |
IRGC Larak Island Control System: How it Operates: 1.Ships nearing the Strait are hailed over VHF by IRGC units positioned at Larak Island. 2. Vessels are required to provide full cargo details, ownership structure, destination, and crew list through IRGC-linked intermediaries. 3.The IRGC reviews each vessel based on nationality, ownership, cargo type, and crew. Energy shipments receive priority. 4.Cleared ships are charged up to $2 million per passage. Payments are made in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency, sometimes routed through third-party maritime brokers. 5. Approved vessels receive authorization and are guided by IRGC escorts through a designated corridor inside Iranian-controlled waters. 6. Ships that do not comply are denied passage. One container vessel ‘the Selen’ was turned back after failing to meet the required protocols. |
The does appear to be confusion regarding the IRGC ship control system. According to Tehran Chinese ships were supposed to be exempt, as allies, and their major shipping company, COSCO, had announced several days ago that were resuming shipping to Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Iraq etc.
That now seems on hold. Presumably the IRGC still want their cash per ship? Video COSCO vessels abort Strait of Hormuz transit attempt amid ongoing instability Following COSCO’s announcement to resume booking acceptance to Gulf destinations, new developments overnight suggest the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains highly unstable. According to #MarineTraffic data, two of its Ultra Large Container Vessels, CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean, attempted to transit the strait but turned back at approximately 03:20 and 03:50 UTC, indicating that safe passage could not be guaranteed. This marks the first attempted crossing by a major container carrier since the start of the conflict. Both vessels operate on COSCO’s MEX service, part of the Ocean Alliance network linking the Middle East with the Far East. COSCO, a Chinese carrier, is currently the world’s fourth-largest container shipping line by capacity. |
President Zelenskyy:
We have reached an important Arrangement between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on defense cooperation. The document was signed ahead of our meeting with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud. It lays the foundation for future contracts, technological cooperation, and investment. It also strengthens Ukraine’s international role as a security donor. We are ready to share our expertise and systems with Saudi Arabia and to work together to strengthen the protection of lives. Now into the fifth year, Ukrainians are resisting the same kind of terrorist attacks – ballistic missiles and drones – that the Iranian regime is currently carrying out in the Middle East and the Gulf region. Saudi Arabia also has capabilities that are of interest to Ukraine, and this cooperation can be mutually beneficial. We also discussed the situation in the Middle East and the Gulf region as a whole, Russia’s assistance to the Iranian regime, developments in fuel markets, and potential energy cooperation. Thank you for the meeting. |
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Iran hit Kuwait’s Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, a China-linked Belt and Road project, with multiple missiles and drones, huge damage reported. Kuwait’s Ministry of Public Works said on Friday that infrastructure at Mubarak Al-Kabeer Port was hit in a dual attack involving drones and cruise missiles at dawn. Preliminary reports showed the strike caused material damage but no human casualties, the ministry said in a statement. It added that emergency procedures were activated in coordination with relevant authorities. |
LBC radio reporting that Iran is not allowing any ships through the Strait.
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united states air force - iran war special operations command / raf mildenhall 27 march - 0020z the build-up and transit of mc-130j commando iis at raf mildenhall has been ongoing since the start of march. So far, there have been at least 41 mc-130js (excluding based aircraft) that have arrived at raf mildenhall. Of those 41, at least 11 have the silent knight modification. These aircraft have been arriving in the early hours of the morning and have largely been unmarked or had their tail numbers taped over. A few have been changing their callsigns on departure, and most have had 20+ passengers on their inbound flights. The first aircraft, 14-5805, arrived at mildenhall on the 3rd of march as unlit 77, departed on the 24th as bzain 31 and then arrived back on the 25th again as bzain 31. In the past 24 hours there have been 15 mc-130js departing. Dacha 11/12/13 and lapel 23/25/27 departed on the 26th and 25th, although i'm not sure what callsign they arrived under, nor their identity. Agree 35/41/45, pilum 53/55 and swash 03/05/07/11 all departed on the 26th of march, leaving behind swash 09 which had a bird strike on landing on the 23rd march. Three ac-130s remain at raf lakenheath, along with a single usmc kc-130 which arrived from mcas miramar. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12059831)
Interesting picture
McDill AFB is where HQ to USCENTCOM is located. A brother and sister are facing federal charges after authorities said an explosive device was found at MacDill Air Force Base near Tampa, Florida, last week. Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Kash Patel announced in a March 26 post on X that the siblings were indicted in connection with the incident at the military base. Patel said one sibling was in custody on charges including evidence tampering. The other sibling, who Patel called the "prime suspect" in the case, has been charged with explosives offenses and is "currently in China." Federal court records identified the siblings charged as Alen Zheng, 20, and Ann Mary Zheng, 27. The FBI Tampa office previously reported the improvised explosive device, or IED, was found on March 16 outside the MacDill base visitor center. How big is Larak Island? What would it take to neutralize that particular design of the Iranian toll taking scheme? It has an area of about 49 km2 (19 sq mi) A quick little summary from the folks at wiki, grains of salt as needed: During their occupation in the 16th century, the Portuguese built fortresses here, as well as on the nearby Qeshm and Hormuz Islands. The island contains an Iranian military base which maintains several Chinese-made Silkworm HY-2 surface-to-surface missiles placed there in 1987. A floating terminal was established on Larak Island in June 1986. The island was bombed by Iraq in November and December 1986, as part of the Iran–Iraq War. As part of Operation Praying Mantis, the Iranian frigate Sahand was sunk by the United States Navy, 200 meters southwest of Larak Island. On 14 May 1988, the largest ship at the time, the Liberian supertanker, Seawise Giant, whilst carrying crude Iranian oil, was sunk by Iraqi anti-ship missiles off the coast of Larak Islan The ship was later refloated, repaired and used for another few years. In late March during the 2026 Iran war Iran began routing oil tankers north of Larak Island for a fee ("Tehran's Tollbooth"); distinct from the main channel, this route affords visual inspection of the ships by the IRGC Navy and port authorities. |
I am constantly seeing parallels between this conflict and the Allied offensive in the Dardanelles. That little attempt to open a sea passage cost around 500,000 lives.
Worth looking at for those interested. The weapons have changed as have the politics but the tactical problems are very similar |
Promotion sure is fast in Iran these days....
General Ahmad Vahidi, who was appointed as commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on March 1st 2026, has reportedly has been killed in an Israel air strike. |
https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...hawk-missiles/
U.S. uses hundreds of Tomahawk missiles on Iran, alarming some at Pentagon The U.S. military has fired more than 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles in four weeks of war with Iran, burning through the precision weapons at a rate that has alarmed some Pentagon officials and prompted internal discussions about how to make more available, said people familiar with the matter. The missiles, which can be launched from Navy surface warships and submarines, have been a staple of U.S. military attacks since they were first used in combat in 1991 during the Persian Gulf War.But only a few hundred are manufactured each year, meaning the global supply is limited. The Pentagon does not publicly disclose how many missiles are in its inventory at any one time. Tomahawks are prized in part because they can travel more than 1,000 miles, reducing the need to send American pilots into well-defended airspace. The heavy reliance on them in the Iran conflict will require urgent discussions about whether to relocate some from other parts of the world, including the Indo-Pacific, and a concerted long-term effort to build more, said several U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military planning..... The Pentagon has tracked the number of Tomahawks used with an increasing focus on what the burn rate will mean for not only for a sustained campaign against Iran but for future military operations as well, people familiar with the matter said. One official characterized the number of Tomahawks left in the Middle East as “alarmingly low,” while another said that without intervention, the Pentagon is closing in on “Winchester” — military slang meaning out of ammunition — for its supply of Tomahawk missiles in the Middle East..... The Pentagon has tracked the number of Tomahawks used with an increasing focus on what the burn rate will mean for not only for a sustained campaign against Iran but for future military operations as well, people familiar with the matter said. One official characterized the number of Tomahawks left in the Middle East as “alarmingly low,” while another said that without intervention, the Pentagon is closing in on “Winchester” — military slang meaning out of ammunition — for its supply of Tomahawk missiles in the Middle East..... The missile is built by Raytheon with help from other manufacturers. The defense industry has capacity to produce about 600 missiles per year, said Ryan Brobst, deputy director of the Center on Military and Political Power at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.... Trump administration officials have adamantly disputed concerns that the Iran war will deplete key U.S. munitions..... the administration nonetheless has convened meetings on the issue, inviting executives from numerous defense contractors, including Raytheon, to the White House. Trump said on social media afterward that the companies had agreed to “quadruple Production of the ‘Exquisite Class’ Weaponry.” A similar meeting is expected again in two months, the president wrote.... |
Saw an analysis of missile usage a few days ago which suggested that over 900 Patriots had been used in March, more than those used over four years in Ukraine. I do not remember the exact numbers quoted but it was close to a thousand at that point; if someone has more reliable figures, please post them.
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 12059969)
Saw an analysis of missile usage a few days ago which suggested that over 900 Patriots had been used in March, more than those used over four years in Ukraine. I do not remember the exact numbers quoted but it was close to a thousand at that point; if someone has more reliable figures, please post them.
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BREAKING: Iranian Mehr News Agency reports airstrikes hit Iran’s key steel facilities, Khuzestan Steel in Ahvaz and Mobarakeh Steel near Isfahan, and also struck Mobarakeh’s power plant. Mobarakeh Steel is Iran’s largest steelmaker and produces over half of the country’s steel output. Israeli forces are increasingly striking Iranian industrial targets, hitting the Khouzestan Steel Plant near Ahvaz and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan today. The strikes were directly ordered by Israeli leadership, and are expected to heavily damage the Iranian economy. https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3bc08e82f4.png |
Saw an analysis of missile usage a few days ago which suggested that over 900 Patriots had been used in March, more than those used over four years in Ukraine. I do not remember the exact numbers quoted but it was close to a thousand at that point; if someone has more reliable figures, please post them. RUSI data was based on the first 16 days. I estimate the number of days remaining as of today assuming the same daily rate held since.* Here are some findings. 1. Israel is basically out of Arrow interceptors, close to running out of David’s sling, and maybe 10 days of THAAD interceptors. This may be why even non-hypersonic and non-terminally maneuvering missiles are getting through more. 2. US interceptors are also running low. THAAD is expected to run out in 2 weeks. SMs and Patriots may last 2 months. 3. Israel has essentially run out of offensive long-range missiles. The US is in a better place, but then the US has global responsibilities. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-res...erns-endurance https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7824345fd4.png https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....64791c9b1d.png |
An unconfirmed report by Reuters suggests the US can only account for one third of Iranian missiles being destroyed. Perhaps another third damaged or in need of repair. An independent expert suggests that Iran has about 30% of its missiles remaining. Sorry can't post the link.
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Somebody needs to explain percentages to RUSI
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12059981)
See below.
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Originally Posted by larssnowpharter
(Post 12059986)
An unconfirmed report by Reuters suggests the US can only account for one third of Iranian missiles being destroyed. Perhaps another third damaged or in need of repair. An independent expert suggests that Iran has about 30% of its missiles remaining. Sorry can't post the link.
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U.S. Central Command said on Friday, March 27, that "U.S. forces continue to eliminate the Iranian regime’s ability to project military power beyond its borders." The CENTCOM home page has some info, but they usually lag a day or two in updating ops summaries during current ops. The last "Commander's Update" was posted on 25 March. https://www.centcom.mil/OPERATIONS-A...SES/EPIC-FURY/ Something I noticed in their summary of Operation Epic Fury: Targets Struck: 9,000+ Combat Flights: 9,000+ Iranian Vessels Damaged or Destroyed: 140+ There is a list of "US Assets Employed" (covers air and naval assets that we have all discussed) as well as a bland reference to "Counter Drone Systems" which is separate from anti air missiles (Patriots, THAAD) and then at the bottom ...and special capabilities we can't list here! M-142 HMARS; High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems. I have a feeling that the Land Assets list will expand soon. |
Originally Posted by noalign
(Post 12060008)
Are these drones that would have otherwise been used on the Ukrainians?
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https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....fa12a560d4.png
Strategic Consequences coming home to roost NYTimes |
Iran is believed only to have lost or fired 33% 0f their ballistic missiles according to US intelligence.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ay-2026-03-27/ |
Marco Rubio announces that the war will be over in a matter of a few short weeks. Well ahead of schedule and not requiring use of ground troops. Objectives more or less completely achieved. We’ll see. Can’t argue about the objectives though, because nobody has any idea what they are/were.
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Originally Posted by Canary Boy
(Post 12060064)
Marco Rubio announces that the war will be over in a matter of a few short weeks. Well ahead of schedule and not requiring use of ground troops. Objectives more or less completely achieved. We’ll see. Can’t argue about the objectives though, because nobody has any idea what they are/were.
Originally Posted by Reuters
PARIS, March 27 (Reuters) - Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday the United States could achieve its objectives in Iran without the use of any ground troops and expected its operation to conclude in a matter of weeks, despite recent deployments of additional forces to the region. Rubio spoke to reporters before returning to the U.S. after he discussed with G7 foreign ministers in France the conflict launched by the U.S. and Israel late last month.
Rubio said the U.S. was achieving its objectives in the war - which he said were destroying Iran's missile and drone capabilities and factories to produce those weapons, as well as its navy and its air force - and expected to conclude its operation in "weeks, not months". "We are ahead of schedule on most of them, and we can achieve them without any ground troops, without any," Rubio said. Rubio said recent deployments of thousands more troops to the region were intended to give President Donald Trump options to respond to contingencies in the conflict, but declined to go into operational details. "In terms of why there's deployments, number one, the President has to be prepared for multiple contingencies... We are always going to be prepared to give the president maximum optionality and maximum opportunity to adjust the contingencies, should they emerge," he said. Rubio also said Iran may decide to set up a tolling system for the Strait of Hormuz and insisted that European and Asian countries that benefit from trade through the waterway should contribute to efforts to secure free passage through the strait once the conflict ends. The news casters are sometime dazzling in their cluelessness.
Originally Posted by CNN
Iran makes new threats against US troops in region ]Iran is threatening to target U.S. service members who are now forced to stay in hotels and office spaces across the Middle East. Jim Sciutto reports on OutFront.
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Report circulating that the US may have lost another 3 KC135s in a drone or ballistic missiles strike.
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Ref post #4406
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LW - thanks for putting a bit more meat on the bones! That detail wasn’t included in the news report I read. Interesting that the prime objective of destroying the nuclear capability was omitted.
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So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?
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Originally Posted by EDLB
(Post 12060083)
So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?
Hence the DT waffling and "here's another fine mess you've gotten me into!". |
If Ukraine has taught us anything it's that kit and personnel out in the open is vulnerable especially when the Ruskies are sending you targeting information.
Knock out the tankers and you reduce the USA's ability to provide air power. This will force more anti-air to be pulled from other areas to protect these bases. This is a proxy war and China, Russia will do all they can to support Iran and weaken the West for the eventual push towards Europe and Taiwan. |
Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
(Post 12060095)
If Ukraine has taught us anything it's that kit and personnel out in the open is venerable especially when the Ruskies are sending you targeting information.
. Venereal perhaps? |
Originally Posted by EDLB
(Post 12060083)
So the USA can not secure XX Million worth KC135 on Saudi Arabia soil in a military compound against drone warfare, but thinks it can secure tankers several times the size in the SoH?
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