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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11206940)
Well you could park them in a lot next to the border and tip off the ukraine farmers !!!


Will a tractor be able to tow a tank towing a Mig 29? ;)

Thanks Airsound, I didn’t know :)

WB627 28th Mar 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by Geriaviator (Post 11206949)
:D Great idea!

You could do that with the Migs as well ;) We have no idea who stole them after we parked them there for the night :uhoh: I believe its called plausible deniability :oh:


MPN11 28th Mar 2022 17:40

Xi ... looks after his, and China's, Interests.
Putin ... looks after his personal glorification, and stuffs the proletariat..

Two dictators with different perspectives.

NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 17:49

I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it. Possibly trying to establish a siege before any ceasefire may come into force?

melmothtw 28th Mar 2022 17:58


I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it.
Where have you been for the last month?

NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 18:02

Ukrainian update.



Operational information on 12.00, 28.03.2022 regarding the russian invasion

2022-03-28 12:45:00 | ID: 67074 The thirty-third day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the russian military invasion continues.

The russian enemy is focusing on maintaining the occupied frontiers and preparing for the resumption of offensive operations.

There is noted a regrouping of russian troops in order to increase offensive capabilities to meet their objectives of reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. At the same time, the russian enemy continues to launch missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine.

Also, additional units of the Armed Forces of the russian federation are being trained and relocated to conduct hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

According to the available information, it is planned to send military equipment and 150 servicemen from the 155th Separate Brigade of the Pacific Fleet (permanent base of Vladivostok). A unit of the 14th special brigade of the Eastern Military District (Khabarovsk, permanent deployment point) has been formed.

In the Volyn direction, there are up to four BTGs from the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus, involved in strengthening and protecting the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. It is impossible to completely rule out the involvement of the armed forces of the republic of belarus in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine.

In the Polissya direction, the russian enemy did not carry out active offensive actions. It continues to inflict fire damage on units of Ukrainian troops in the areas of the settlements of Lychanka, Petrushka, Shpytka and Moshchun.

The russian enemy is regrouping troops and withdrawing some of the units to the territory of the republic of belarus to restore combat capability.

In the Gomel region of the republic of belarus, the transporting of Iskander-M mobile short range ballistic missile system in the direction of the State Border with Ukraine has been recorded.

In the Siversky direction, the russian enemy, with the help of certain units of the Central Military District, did not conduct offensive operations. It focused its efforts on consolidating and maintaining the previously occupied borders. Carries out regrouping, concentrates equipment in settlements and forests in order to prevent its fire damage.

The russian enemy continues to blockade the city of Chernihiv, inflicting fire damage on civilian infrastructure. It defends previously captured frontiers and conducts engineering equipment positions. According to available data, the russian enemy withdrew from the village of Snovsk, destroying the bridge over the river Snov.

In addition, the russian occupiers destroyed bridges in the settlements of Konotop, Stara Rudnya, Smyach, Maly Dyrchyn and Velykyi Dyrchyn.

In the direction of Brovary, the occupiers tried to act with the help of separate units of the 90th Tank Division and the 2nd All-Military Army of the Central Military District. The russian enemy was stopped by active defensive actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but it continued to shell the positions of our troops near the village of Lukyanivka.

In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy is acting with the help of separate units from the Western Military District.

In the area of ​​the city of Sumy, russian enemy did not conduct active hostilities, continued to regroup troops and withdraw them to the territory of the russian federation to restore combat capability after the losses. According to available information, the morale and psychological condition of the personnel is extremely low. Thus, servicemen of the 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment refuse to take part in the war.

In the direction of Kharkiv city, the russian enemy did not conduct offensive operations, continues to block the city and fire on civilian infrastructure and carries out measures of logistical support of troops.

In the area of ​​the city of Izyum, the russian enemy is operating with the help of separate units of the 20th All-Military and 1st Tank Armies and the Baltic Fleet. Carries out regrouping, it replenishment of ammunition in order to further resume the offensive on Slovyansk.

In the Donetsk direction, the russian occupiers are concentrating their main efforts on taking control of the settlements of Popasna and Rubizhne, exits to the districts of Vuhledar and Solodke, as well as capturing the city of Mariupol.

The russian enemy carried out artillery and mortar shelling of the settlements of Toretske, Svitlodarsk, Troitske, and Pisky.

In the direction of Terny, as a result of a combat clash with units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the russian enemy suffered losses and retreated to the area of ​​the settlement of Makiyivka.

In Rubizhne, with the support of artillery, russian enemy is trying to gain a foothold in the north-western part of the city, but it suffered losses with no success.

In the area of ​​the settlement of New York, Donetsk oblast, the russian enemy attempted assault twice . It was unsuccessful, was retreated, and continued artillery shelling of the positions of Ukrainian defenders.

The russian enemy carried out assaults in the area of ​​Marinka. It was unsuccessful and suffered losses. In Mariupol - russian enemy continued to advance to the city centre and fire on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

In the areas of Stepnohirsk and Huliaipole, the russian occupiers carried out artillery shelling of the positions of units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

In the areas of Stepnohirsk and Huliaipole, the russian occupiers carried out artillery shelling of the positions of units of the Ukrainian Defence Forces.

In the Tavriya direction, rosguard units in the temporarily occupied territories of the Kherson region continue to carry out filtering measures to identify Ukrainian servicemen, participants in the anti-terrorist operation, civic activists, as well as the seizure of weapons and ammunition.

In the South Buh direction, the enemy is taking measures to restore combat capability and replenish ammunition, continues engineering work. It carried out assault operations in the direction of the settlement of Blahodatne, but with no success.

The naval staff of the Black Sea Fleet of the russian federation performs tasks in certain areas of the Black Sea and Azov operational zones. Some ships went to a closed area, probably to launch missile strikes on targets in Ukraine.

Let's win together! We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine!

Keep calm!

Glory to Ukraine!
https://www.mil.gov.ua/en/news/2022/...sian-invasion/

NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 18:23

A classical case of over reporting in the propaganda war. I do find it strange considering how many air kills that have reported on both sides that no new shoot downs have been filmed or shown for several weeks.


NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 18:35

Words fail me, how could you do that to his poor mother..


DaveReidUK 28th Mar 2022 18:51


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11206981)
Words fail me, how could you do that to his poor mother.

It's hard to know which is worse for a Russian mother, hearing of her son's death in such horrible circumstances, or not having his death acknowledged at all by the State.

NutLoose 28th Mar 2022 18:57


Originally Posted by Usertim (Post 11206690)
If there really was so much forest burning I am pretty sure it would show on FIRMS https://[email protected],51.3,13z
Cannot see amything except a few smallish fires 6 days ago.

Usertrim, see


https://twitter.com/clmono

rattman 28th Mar 2022 19:22


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11206957)
I see there are reports of heavy fighting around Kyvi as the Russians attempt to surround it. Possibly trying to establish a siege before any ceasefire may come into force?

You mean localized ukrainian counter attacks, it seem like ukraine is attacking in an attempt to encircle russian forces. The the reports in the last few hours is that Ukraine has retaken Irpin

peter we 28th Mar 2022 19:27


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11206991)

no fires according to Ukrainian sources

MAINJAFAD 28th Mar 2022 22:07


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11206998)
no fires according to Ukrainian sources

The NASA FIRMS system shows something burning not that far away from the site.

https://[email protected],51.4,13z

Sue Vêtements 28th Mar 2022 22:45


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11206921)
Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich [snip] suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month

Maybe he forgot whether it was the Vessel with the pestle or the Chalice from the Palace . . .

macmp419 28th Mar 2022 22:57


Originally Posted by Sue Vêtements (Post 11207074)
Maybe he forgot whether it was the Vessel with the pestle or the Chalice from the Palace . . .

Spot on 👍

Roman has been Putins “friendly face in the West” for a long time, a warning shot for sure. As Vlad has consistently shown - cross me and I will deal you.

You only get to be an Oligarch in “modern” Russia so long as you tow the line.


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 00:26

Film of an NLAW fired at a tank but possibly too close, see. Link, stills in thread show the missile in flight.


SnowFella 29th Mar 2022 00:44

NLAW in it's direct attack mode has selectable arming range, normal setting is 100m but with the flick of a switch it can be changed to 20m.

Sue Vêtements 29th Mar 2022 00:45


Originally Posted by macmp419 (Post 11207076)
Spot on 👍

Roman has been Putins “friendly face in the West” for a long time, a warning shot for sure.


I don't know why he'd have such trouble though. It's really quite clear:


Griselda: Listen. I have put a pellet of poison in one of the vessels.

Hawkins: Which one?

Griselda: The one with the figure of a pestle.

Hawkins: The vessel with the pestle?

Griselda: Yes. But you don't want the vessel with the pestle, you want the chalice from the palace!

Hawkins: I-I don't want the vessel with the pestle, I want the chalice from the what?

Jean: The chalice from the palace!

Hawkins: Hm?

Griselda: It's a little crystal chalice with a figure of a palace.

Hawkins: Th-the chalice from the palace has the pellet with the poison?

Griselda: No, the pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle.

Hawkins: Oh, oh, the pestle with the vessel.

Jean: The vessel with the pestle.

Hawkins: What about the palace from the chalice?

Griselda: Not the palace from the chalice! The chalice from the palace!

Hawkins: Where's the pellet with the poison?

Griselda: In the vessel with the pestle!

Jean: Don't you see? The pellet with the poison's in the vessel with the pestle.

Griselda: The chalice from the palace has the brew that is true!

Jean: It's so easy, I can say it!

Hawkins: Well then you fight him!

etc etc etc

MAINJAFAD 29th Mar 2022 01:20


Originally Posted by SnowFella (Post 11207102)
NLAW in it's direct attack mode has selectable arming range, normal setting is 100m but with the flick of a switch it can be changed to 20m.

Which is 66 feet, That Tank is closer than that. Looks like it was fired from a third story room which would be around 25 to 30 feet Max and the Tank is less than 30 feet from the launch point. Warhead didn't arm!!

ACW342 29th Mar 2022 11:20

Yoo Hoo, we’re over here
 
I see the cousins are really trailing their coats today, F15 and two B52s, one just coming off as his/her replacement are coming on

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:26

Ukraine recovers the bogged down Russian T80 tanks


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:30


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:41

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....7c1233d4f8.png

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 11:49


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11206997)
You mean localized ukrainian counter attacks, it seem like ukraine is attacking in an attempt to encircle russian forces. The the reports in the last few hours is that Ukraine has retaken Irpin

No, see link below


NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 12:07

A couple more Russian Generals no more?

Google translation


THE RUSSIAN REICH CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS COMMANDERS. 🔥Today, during the fighting, Ukrainian soldiers organized a meeting with the devil of the next batch of Russian war criminals. According to preliminary information, among the "disposed" is the commander and chief of staff of the 503rd motorized rifle regiment of the 19th Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Combined Arms Army. 😈At this pace in the abyss will have to open an officer's club. And if the Kremlin leaders do not think about it, then our defenders will regularly send new participants there. Glory to Ukraine!




macmp419 29th Mar 2022 12:25


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207323)
A couple more Russian Generals no more?

Another being reported:
❌Commander Denis Kurilo, commander of the 200th separate motorized rifle brigade (military unit 08275, Pechenga), was liquidated.

🌎 News | World | Politics
https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....881c7bca3.jpeg

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 12:29

FROM CNN
https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-22/index.html


Russia says it will "drastically reduce" military assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv

From Daria Markina
Moscow says it will “drastically reduce military activity” on two fronts — Kyiv and Chernihiv — according to the Russian Ministry of Defense Telegram channel.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier claimed “certain units” of Russia’s military are withdrawing from battlefronts in the capital, Kyiv, and from the northern city of Chernihiv.

“The Russian enemy did not meet the goal of its offensive operation,” it said in an official Facebook update Tuesday.

However, it warned of a “high risk” of Russian troops attacking military and civilian infrastructure. The Russian military, it claimed, is struggling to reinforce and rotate in new soldiers, due to the “refusal of personnel to participate in the so-called special operation,” and are “not able to staff even one battalion-tactical group.”

In the fifth week of the Russian invasion, the “heroic” Ukrainian resistance is “conducting a defence operation in the eastern, southeastern and northeastern directions, restrains the enemy in all directions, in some directions - displaces the enemy,” it said.

Less Hair 29th Mar 2022 12:45

Haven't they done exactly the opposite of what they announced and promised every time until now? Let's wait for some visible retreat first.

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 13:05

One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Tartiflette Fan 29th Mar 2022 13:15


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force


Presumably they will see if they just withdraw 10km, or back over their border, and act accordingly.

Everything else apart, both the May 9th Red Square Victory parade and also the beginning of the induction of the new class of conscripts are at hand, so you would expect more than usual redeployments at this time;

dead_pan 29th Mar 2022 13:26


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Somehow I think the Ukrainians may be more than aware of the risks (esp with NATO recce assets at their side). Also, an extensive, well laid minefield along the border should act as a nice little hindrance.

To be honest I'll believe they're withdrawing only when there's incontrovertible evidence on the ground, and even then...


airsound 29th Mar 2022 14:16

ACW342

...cousins are really trailing their coats today, F15 and two B52s,
Yes, but it's rather odd - on FlightRadar they don't seem to know about Fairford, where the Buffies are detached. They said one of the two had departed Kemble (now Cotswold) and the other Brize Norton.
No, they both came from Fairford - though I'd be interested to see a Buffie taking off from Cotswold (Or landing, come to that...) 🤔

airsound

MPN11 29th Mar 2022 14:33

My take on the “withdrawal” is for RU to cut their losses and regroup to secure the Donbas and the south coast ports. Thus shifting to centre of gravity toward what Vlad really has as a priority.

However, no doubt lies and maskirovka will make my prognosis further dribblings on an elderly armchair.

GlobalNav 29th Mar 2022 14:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207352)
One did wonder if it was a ploy to get Ukrainian forces to redeploy elsewhere then for them to reopen the attack against a severely depleted UA force

Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 15:00

More on the bunkers available


https://www.nti.org/analysis/article...t-nuclear-war/

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...lmost-complete



Russian Sites

Russia, too, has its own network of deep underground sites. In 2016, there were reports of Russia modernizing and expanding dozens of these sites.
  • A deep underground facility beneath the Kremlin. [6]
  • According to a leaked Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, there is an “enormous underground leadership bunker adjacent to Moscow State University … intended for the national command authority in wartime.” [7] This is known as the Ramenki Underground facility, and it is reportedly connected to the Kremlin by a VIP subway, popularly called Metro-2.
  • The underground subway reportedly travels further out to at least two extra-urban underground bunkers, one near Voronovo and another near Sharapovo. [8]
  • Far outside of Moscow, there is a large underground command center near Kosvinsky that is said to be a survivable command post roughly comparable to Raven Rock. [9]

The United States and Russian Federation are spending billions of dollars to maintain these facilities, and they are enormous in size. Each site has miles of tunnels under hundreds of feet of earth and rock. They have room for thousands of officials. A leaked DIA report about Russia’s growing emphasis on nuclear bunkers reportedly states that the two bunkers under Moscow alone could accommodate 10,000 people. [12] The same report asserts, “Highly effective life-support systems may permit independent operations for many months following a nuclear attack.” [13] These include power plants, water reservoirs and air filters to allow the occupants to continue their duties while Americans and Russians aboveground die in massive and excruciating numbers. Still, the statistics do not begin to convey the enormity of this enterprise.

macmp419 29th Mar 2022 15:00


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11207417)
Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.


Given that they have done exactly the opposite to what they have said so far, this statement released today caught my eye:

'No one is thinking about using nuclear weapons', Kremlin says

Russia has sought to allay fears it is considering the use of nuclear weapons.

Since the outbreak of war on 24 February, there have been concerns over Russia's intentions after Vladimir Putin ordered his nuclear deterrent forces to be placed on high alert.

However, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov today told the American broadcaster PBS "no one" was thinking about using nuclear weapons.

Asked whether Mr Putin had previously suggested he would use nuclear weapons if a third party got involved in the conflict in Ukraine, Mr Peskov said: "No. I don’t think so.

"But he was quite bold in saying do not interfere, if you do, we have all the possibilities to prevent that and to punish all those who are going to interfere."

The Kremlin spokesman went on to say: "No one is thinking about using… even about the idea of using nuclear weapons."

henra 29th Mar 2022 15:38


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11207417)
Only speculation of course, reports of the "missing" government officials holed up in nuclear bunkers and the Russian army is withdrawing could be an ominous sign of more sister intentions, by one who has no limits for such things.

In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).

GlobalNav 29th Mar 2022 16:10


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11207437)
In all their paranoia I wouldn't rule out that Putin is concerned about a (conventional) 'decapitation strike' against himself (which is ridiculous but I think he lost touch with reality quite some time ago).

Sad thing is, the monster is calling all the shots, even from a relative position of weakness, and the west is only deciding to react or not. How can the west gain the initiative? His strength is his lack of inhibition way beyond what what decent people would dare. Ukraine’s strength is laudable courage, perseverance and resolve in the face of an existential threat. When is the west going to show some strength?

NutLoose 29th Mar 2022 16:25

I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.

You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.

charliegolf 29th Mar 2022 16:40


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11207468)
I read a thread somewhere where it was put across that Putin isolated in his bunker and ignoring the tragedy being inflicted on his own people, may find lower rank officials start to take day to day decisions to keep the country running and in effect cutting Putin, cowering in his little bunker out of the loop, which is effectively wresting power from him due to his self isolation.

You are no longer a leader of a Country when the Country takes control of itself.

Didn't Stalin do similar when Barbarossa kicked off? Though he survived to kill a few more million...

CG


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