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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 28th Feb 2023 07:15

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....86d4a55f2.jpeg

ORAC 28th Feb 2023 07:49

Russian media report that around 2 a.m. on February 28. Two drones with explosives attacked the Rosneft oil depot near the city of Tuapse.

Distance to the territory controlled by Ukraine from there is +430km.

​​​​​​​

Sfojimbo 28th Feb 2023 08:04


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11392689)
Russian media report that around 2 a.m. on February 28. Two drones with explosives attacked the Rosneft oil depot near the city of Tuapse.
Distance to the territory controlled by Ukraine from there is +430km.​​​​​​​

But only 275km from Georgia.
Or about 100km from Abkhazia.
Mysteries abound!

Round up the usual suspects!

ORAC 28th Feb 2023 08:06

Most responses humorous and referencing balloons and aliens, but the Russians seem in a bit of a panic.

All Commercial Aircraft that were inbound towards St. Petersburg have been diverted away reportedly due to “Unknown Objects” being spotted over the City; the Russian Air Force is said to have been scrambled to handle the Intrusion.

The Federal Agency for Air Transport has closed the Airspace over St. Petersburg until at least 1300 Local Time; it is currently 1118.

The 2 Russian Fighter Aircraft that were scrambled earlier have reportedly identified the “Object” as what appears to be a large drone.…


ORAC 28th Feb 2023 08:28

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/13591

OPINION: Old NATO’s Road to Nowhere

Indecision among NATO’s founding members about what degree of victory Ukraine should reap, risks playing into Vladimir Putin’s hands. Yet Ukraine has earned the right to an unconditional victory.

petit plateau 28th Feb 2023 08:45


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11392671)
The eventual full price of the SMO might be starting to become clearer…..



You might have never heard of cities called "Khaishenvai", "Boli" or "Shuangchenzi" as well as the island of "Quedao", because that are the official names according the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources for Vladivostok, Khabarovsk, Ussuriysk and Sakhalin, "newly" introduced.….



Interesting. The red circle marks where the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict took place. The main railway runs roughly North-South down to Vladivostok close alongside the Russian side of the border.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-S...order_conflict

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....73575bde71.png


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f08b32ac0b.png



wondering 28th Feb 2023 08:47


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11392674)

Clever to sacrifice the 'Untermenschen' in the disadvantaged regions who are not ethnic Russians. Vlad doesn't make the same mistake the SU did in the war against Afghanistan.

FUMR 28th Feb 2023 10:02

Meanwhile things are becoming worse in Bakhmut:

EXTRACT FROM BBC NEWS

The situation in the city of Bakhmut, on the eastern frontline, is becoming "more and more difficult", Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said.

Russian forces have been trying to take the city for over six months.

"The enemy is constantly destroying everything that can be used to protect our positions", Mr Zelensky stated.

The Ukrainian leader's remarks came as US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China against arming Russia during a visit to Kyiv on Monday.

Some of the fiercest fighting to take place since Russia invaded Ukraine just over a year ago has taken place in Bakhmut, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, part of which is under the control of Russia and its separatist allies.

Recently efforts by Russian forces to capture the industrial city have intensified, with its troops gaining ground.

The separatist leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, said "practically all roads" into the city were "under [Russian] fire control".

And the commander of Ukraine's ground forces, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, said the situation around Bakhmut was "extremely tense".

"Despite significant losses, the enemy threw in the most prepared assault units of Wagner, who are trying to break through the defences of our troops and surround the city," Gen Syrskyi said.

Speaking about the situation in his nightly address, President Zelensky said managing to gain a foothold in Bakhmut and ensuring its defence were being heavily compromised by Russia's renewed onslaught.

He was "grateful to each and every person who is heroically holding" the area.

President Zelensky also called once again for modern combat aircraft to be sent so that "the entire territory of our country" can be defended from "Russian terror".

peter we 28th Feb 2023 11:03


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11392216)

is he Ukrainian?
The reference to 100k is the bonus paid to Russians.

peter we 28th Feb 2023 11:14


Originally Posted by Wyntor (Post 11392500)
I love some of the commentary....hilarious. Nearly collapsed laughing at the "low and slow" stuff. A dirty Viper is cleared 600kts IAS/M1.6.

Low and slow.... hardly - 600kts M.9+ at sea level is pretty zippy.

Just ask a puff jet mate.

I suspect the f-16 will be used to lob JDAM-ER 40+miles from the target.
Does that seem a reasonable strategy?

fdr 28th Feb 2023 11:29


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11392674)

and other than underreporting deaths by an order of magnitude and disregarding injuries around 2 times the higher number, that map indicates the probable demise of the Russian Federation as we know it. Subjugation may be fun for a while but it comes around and bites eventually, when the capacity to suppress the dispossessed has diminished, then the masters become the prey.

Wokkafans 28th Feb 2023 12:03


Winemaker 28th Feb 2023 14:35


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11392848)

An interesting photo. The thought that instantly comes to my mind is that to move this ammo to the front every single piece will have to be un-stacked by hand, loaded into boxcars, then unloaded by hand into trucks, then unloaded by hand at the front. The lack of forklifts and pallets or crates is a very real impediment to good logistics (not to mention the rust). It sure seems to be the Russian way......

jolihokistix 28th Feb 2023 14:46

Let it blow.

Russia can then scratch Transnistria off their immediate options list.

ORAC 28th Feb 2023 15:02

Looks like the Russians really did panic this morning over those “drones”. TV, radio, internet air raid warnings….

Air raid sirens & alerts all over Western #Russia including the #Moscow region appeared on TV and radio. "Attention! Attention! Air Raid Alert declared! Everyone must immediately seek shelter! ...Risk of a rocket strike!"

PukinDog 28th Feb 2023 15:21


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11392848)


...contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-Era Arms and Munitions with reports done by the Moldavian Academy of Science stating that if the Depot was destroyed the explosion could be the size of the Atomic Bombs dropped on both Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Well, I suppose it could be, but only if you destroyed it using an atomic bomb with a yield of around 15kt.


Whoever did the math must've forgotten that explosive material represents just a small portion of the total weight of an artillery shell (not to mention the tricky bit of somehow detonating all those shells at exactly the same instant).

Sfojimbo 28th Feb 2023 15:34


Originally Posted by peter we (Post 11392820)
I suspect the f-16 will be used to lob JDAM-ER 40+miles from the target.
Does that seem a reasonable strategy?

They don't need an F-16 for that, they have Mig-29s.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/23/u...ns-russia.html

Sfojimbo 28th Feb 2023 15:36


Originally Posted by Wyntor (Post 11392500)
I love some of the commentary....hilarious. Nearly collapsed laughing at the "low and slow" stuff. A dirty Viper is cleared 600kts IAS/M1.6.

Low and slow.... hardly - 600kts M.9+ at sea level is pretty zippy.

Just ask a puff jet mate.

Yea, when they're clean they're pretty slick.

tdracer 28th Feb 2023 16:25


Originally Posted by wondering (Post 11392729)
Clever to sacrifice the 'Untermenschen' in the disadvantaged regions who are not ethnic Russians. Vlad doesn't make the same mistake the SU did in the war against Afghanistan.

Reminds me a bit of the Hunger Games - people in the Capitol living in luxury, while the outside districts work almost as slave labor to support the excesses of the capitol.
I doubt the author of the Hunger Games intended it as a 'how to' guide...

Wokkafans 28th Feb 2023 16:26



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