Your guess is incorrect.
That did not happen.
You may, if you like, click on the OPs name and see when the last post from them was.
You'll want to click on the "find more posts by" choice.

Why does Putin continue with his nuclear war threats? Because he's not scared enough of the west that's why. On the whole, western governments have been extremely weak in dealing with him. Time to openly play his game and tell him that if he wants nuclear war, then live or die we'll give him it and so what will he achieve?

Rather apt justice.

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On what do you base that assumption?

I truly hope you are correct but I believe you are not. To say they ‘won’t dare’ is to remove any possibility that no matter what, they won’t use them. What if Russia really starts to lose - if the tanks make a huge difference and then we send jets, and the writing is on the wall. Are you really saying that there are no circumstances whatsoever that would bring about their use? If so, based on what?

I suspect that message has already been transmitted to Mr. Putin.

Because provided Ukraine does not invade Russia proper which is a condition of western support, there is no advantage to Russia by using them, it doesn't change anything.
There is no point turning the very country you are invading into a nuclear wasteland. If Russia were to use them it would be against Germany, Poland or one of the other Baltic States. It has been made very clear, should Putin use them at all then there is no scenario in which Putin himself survives.

There are a number of people here that fail to understand that 'nukes' is a colloquial term that vaguely describes a number of very different things as if they are one thing. Not just here, but other forums are beginning to sound like echo chambers shouting: that can't possibly happen because............

There are two things being thrown to the wayside in these arguments; Putin's mindset, and the fact that 'tactical nukes' aren't the same as 'strategic nukes'. A person can read article after article written by well meaning journalist types who are opposed to the use of 'nukes' tactical or otherwise, but I guarantee you that Putin does not get his information from those kinds of sources. We can be sure he gets his information from advocates of tactical nukes, and such people exist on our side as well as their side (otherwise we wouldn't have them).

Tactical nukes, don't turn landscapes into wastelands; they create virtually no fallout and leave behind very little radiation, long or short term; after about four days there would be no limitation on infantry troops passing through ground zero of an airburst of a 10kt or so tactical nuke. An armored column could pass through ground zero as soon as the ground cools if need be. The crews and any infantry carried by such a column would receive an unhealthy dose of radiation, but not a disabling dose. How much do you think that would bother a Russian commander?

Well meaning journalists claim that tactical nukes would be militarially ineffective - but they're dead wrong. They often postulate that a nuke wouldn't have any discernible affect on a hundred mile front, which is a silly argument. Tactical nukes would (will?) be very effective in blunting the forward units of an armored column advance. They could be very effective in opening a hole in the flank of an enemy advance, potentially cutting off and leaving the lead units surrounded. They could be very effective in "breaking down the door" for an offensive. Russian military doctrine is centered around the use of tactical nukes.

So let's get back to Putin - and the other hard core militants in the Russian hierarchy who are running this war. They have no intention of seeing their nation humbled by Ukraine and have no intention of bowing to the power of NATO. When push comes to shove they know how to deal with the weaklings of the west, it's already a part of their military doctrine, Escalate to De-Escalate. https://globalsecurityreview.com/nuc...ence-strategy/

Yes the west can launch a devastating air war, but remember the air war in the first Iraq war? That campaign with its 100,000 sorties and 88,500 tons of bombs over five weeks achieved less than a 10% reduction in the Iraq ground forces. The Ruskies know that. The west will not respond in kind, there would be no purpose in the west using tactical nukes against a Russian army that is already stalled (and it would be stalled under western air attack). So where do things go from there?

Faced with continued Russian intransigence and general mobilization, the west would be faced with two choices: launch a first strike nuclear war or negotiate.
And Putin would be in the drivers seat at the negotiating table.

IMO That's how Putin sees it.

BTW
If anybody wants some real information about tactical nukes, look here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...uclear-weapons

Sure but even if he doesn't admit it, it makes no difference. Your scenario and reasoning is exactly the same as what happened in Ukraine in the first place, except that your scenario is escalated to include the rest of Europe. Such an escalation is nuclear world war. Your argument assumes Russia is militarily capable and competent to do it. I would argue the evidence says it is not.
Your argument also assumes there is no risk to Europe if they stay out of it. We know that it not so, Poland and Germany along with the other former soviet states will also be reclaimed eventually using the same argument. Where do you draw your line, how much law and international agreements do you allow the Russians to just tear up whenever they like. Germany relied entirely on those agreements with Russia for it's Oil and Gas, tearing up that agreement has completely destroyed the German manufacturing model, a big price to pay for freedom and democracy all ready.

No Sir, freedom and democracy must be defended wherever it is in the world. I will say this though, you are Europe, don't be relying on the US and it's allies in the western hemisphere for your freedom. Europe is oceans away and serves no benefit to us at all. If you are not willing to defend it then roll over and become Russian and all that comes with it, just don't expect us to, not going to happen, the same applies to China.

Putin and his crowd know that if an all out nuclear war occurs it will for 100% sure be the end of Russia.
They would never nuke a western city.

I''m with Xeptu here and this has been discussed earlier in depth in this thread. The assumption is that Ukraine stops at its legitimate borders. Biden made it very clear that if Z-ombies start throwing even the tiniest of nukes, the U.S. will take a stand. Not necessarily by nukes initially but maybe with overwhelming conventional weapons. Call it gloves off if you like. No more Vipers to Ukraine but everything that U.S. has that flies, with crews and things that go bang.
If the Z-team continues tossing NBC's, then there's the rest of the strategic arsenal.
Also that would mean most probably that China gets upset: who would trust a neighbour sending nukes cross the border? It would pretty much quarantee total isolation from the rest of the world.

If V.V.Putin is stupid enough to send a loud and radiating message to a NATO country it would without a doubt mean article 5 activation and at that point it would be game over, maybe for mankind but in any case for Putin and his regime.. NATO joining the war is meaning opening an entirely new front to which Russia has no equipment nor troops to put against. The barracks from Murmansk all the way down to Kaliningrad has been exhausted of troops already. To emphasize the situation we can take the elite spearhead of Russian army that Russia (and Soviet Union) has planned to use as elite counterforce repelling NATO attack, the 1st Guards Tank Army. It was destroyed north of Kyiv a year ago by Ukrainian forces.

But sending a covert ship up Thames turning London into glass and not claiming the quilt? I am sorry but that's a bit too much Hollywood for me. It would not be a subtle reminder nor could it be denied and it would inevitably lead to all of NATO joining the war with the result as above.

Putin may be mad and all that, but I bet that even he is not that stupid to use NBC's. Not over Ukraine. And even in Russia there is a chain of command and events to follow for the nukes tobe launched and the hope is that sanity prevails in there. But the message has been sent to Moscow that at minimum they'll find out why the U.S. is ranked the most powerful army in the world if they use WMD's.

Trouble is, from what we've seen of many of his advisers and Generals Putinoften looks like the sanest and most peacable one of the lot.

Whether the nuke is in the centre of London or Paris, or somewhere at 1000 feet under the Arctic Sea makes no difference and will elicit the same final response

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If you compare him to lunatics like Kadyrov and Prigozhin (and Medwedew -but in his case these statements sound quite non-convincing) and some of the media weirdoes I agree. That said, Gerassimov and Shoigu have never openly expressed similar strange musings. They do appear at least modestly level- headed.

Well some good news amongst all you Nuclear doomsayers… Western Companies are starting to ramp up production…meanwhile in the U.K. :(

BDIM, in other posts you've said you work at a high level in defence, have privileged insight, and that NATO and allies are drawing this out in order to deplete Russia's war capacity. That seems entirely reasonable - whether true or not.

But this new assessment doesn't seem reasonable at all. If Russia takes out a major Western city, by whatever means, the notion that the free world at that point meakly surrenders seems ... far fetched. In fact the whole plot does. I'm guessing this is your own personal speculation, rather than further insight from the inner sanctum of defence leadership?

I would hope our highest levels of defence leadership are committed to responding swiftly and authoritatively to any such attack and have communicated this clearly and unequivocally via diplomatic channels to Russia.

I know nothing, but that's what I feel.

Hi guy's, new here but I've lurked since the beginning observing with great interest.

​​​​A simple observation if I may: Mr BDIM is attempting to qualify himself with high level 'insider' privileged information. If this is indeed the case, then he needs to consider he may well have breached the official secrets act for potentially disseminating classified information on a public forum.

Having said that, V.V. P's nuclear scaremongering imho is intended to sow fear and uncertainty. a) to bolster his own legitimacy as the only choice of leader to deliver victory against the collective West intent on destroying Russia as a Superpower. b) to put pressure on and fracture Western government support by invoking cold-war nuclear war rhetoric and promote the rise of CND type movements. c) to raise the stakes for the Kyiv government and people's of Ukraine that only total annihilation awaits if they persist on their current path.

It's about forcing Zelensky to the negotiating table at a time where Russia can realistically force Ukraine relinquishment of Crimea and the four annexed Oblasts to be sold as a Russian victory.

This is nothing more than a game of poker and who will fold first.

It goes further: giving in to nuclear blackmail opens the flood gates for every imperial expansionist wannabe dictator with a grudge to get their own way. Pushing the nuclear can down the road will make the task of containing non-proliferation exponentially harder with the very real chance of a pre-emptive strike somewhere.

A coward only threatens when he feels secure. V.V. P knows he cannot use NBC even in a demonstration because that would indeed lead to nuclear armaggedon.

The tragedy is tens of millions of Russians believe and worship him.

It looks like Russia is attempting to draw N Korea and China into WW3, I some how doubt China would be so stupid, and they may have sway over N Korea.

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It wouldn’t even need that, a suitcase nuke could be brought in under diplomatic mail.

This guy needs to play the lottery tonight.

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It’s sounding bad in Bakhmut

Ohh dear never mind.

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I do not have privileged insight in as much as everything I say is open source and freely available on legitimate sites.

Re: your 2nd point, yes, as I said it is schoolboy speculation. I personally do believe Putin would use nukes before losing the war, and agree with others that he won’t want to pollute Ukraine. He will want to punish the West, and if he is about to lose the war anyway, I don’t think he will be overly troubled by the consequences.

All my opinion, nothing more. I am often wrong and desperately hope this is one of those times 🤞.

Then he'll condemn himself, his girlfriend, daughters and the whole of Russia, which he supposedly serves, to certain, inescapable death.

A low probability in my opinion.

A lot depends on the truth regarding his mental health. He comes across as calm and collected on the exterior but that can't possibly match what's between his ears.

Actually, I think it does. He's a trained KGB agent, used to acting calm and collected on the outside. In the KGB, he would have been involved in things that would numb him emotionally. Cold, calculating, ruthless....but not crazy.

Hannibal Lecter also came across as a calm and collected individual, but I wouldn’t let him anywhere near set of steak knives.

China is downwind, and will not see the funny side of savings on UHT milk courtesy of Vlad the impaler.

Right now, any bucket of sunshine getting popped is going to be attributed to Count Vlad, it could say "Made in North Korea" and "Greetings from our Dear Leader" with pictures of a dude with a curious hair cut pushing the big red button, and it would still be put down to V.V.Pukin.

There is an assumption that the US and NATO response to the Kremlin using NBC would be conventional, and focused within Ukraine to evict the overstayers. That would be both irrational and inappropriate for an attack on a NATO country arising from a hissy fit of a criminal leader who stuffed up "biggly". That would be worthy of lots of popcorn, and SPF 1M, welding googles etc. If Puking wishes to make our home planet as appealing in real estate as the moon is, then the people that can actually stop him aren't sitting in Bonn or Washington, they are standing in the streets of Moscow.

If the West continues to suggest a less than direct response to Vlad, we are increasing the risk of a reckless act, that gets to the same place...

Interesting times.

Has anyone been watching Putin vs The West on BBC? (Episode 2 tonight if anyone is interested). That very point was made about him in Episode 1. He's a risk taker, but a calculated risk taker. In that respect he's perfectly rational

Not in Ukraine but most definitely associated to the war: this morning Sweden has placed Patriot system to the port of Gothenburg.
"This is not an exercise. we are increasing the preparedness" comments the press manager of Swedish Armed Forces.
Although they also say that there is no change in the threat evaluation or threat risk against Sweden.

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a...ion-i-goteborg

I suspect that there may be more than one individual posting as user racedo, because the writing style has changed over time (as has the user's location, which was once "Darkest Surrey") but I am quite sure that the mother tongue of the poster is not English, based on some oddities of English phraseology which are characteristic of native speakers of Slavic languages - such as misuse of definite and indefinite articles. That is not to say that the demonstrated fluency in English is anything but admirable, and a credit to the Department for Language Support at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow.

A bit of Russian truth for a change

She's got a nasty twitch there and i can totally understand why, brave girl..

Braver than I would be. Thankfully a lot of the press are.

They say that if you can hear the shell coming it's not for you. If you hear the rush of air time to duck. Not sure how accurate that is but it's something like that.
In time you get used to anything I guess.

Yes, I must admit seeing her step backwards towards that wall of glass, I hoped the hell it wasn’t a close hit as she would have been shredded.

I sometimes feel this is the most important thing that is happening in the world in our generation and has the ability to destroy everything and everyone in the beautiful World we inhabit, hence why I try to keep this thread relevant, at the top of the forum and current, though I do wonder sometimes when one see people are more interested in Williams bloody hat!

Defense companies in Switzerland are currently struggling to receive new contracts with every company in the industry reporting they have already lost at least 1 to 2 contracts because of the “neutrality” claim.

https://t.co/E2aBAjQ5ZN

It always surprised me how a Country can be a major ams supplier and neutral at the same time.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...up-2023-02-06/

There is one unexpected element in that article that astonishes me. It states that in 2021 the Swiss law governing export of armaments was tightened. Not only are there the usual limits on re-exports, but a much greater restriction that no exports will be allowed to any country involved either in internal conflict or international conflict, so Switzerland would not be allowed to supply its NATO customers if they were directly involved in a war with Russia. I'm not surprised that they are complaining that they are complaining that they are being excluded from Requests to Tender. Who wants a supplier which is legally prevented from supplying when you most need its goods ?

It may just be that some of us are briefly deflected from weeping for Ukraine by being a bit silly and trivial.