Please don't consider all former east Germans to be pro Russia, pro communism, invasion or similar. It's quite the opposite. Admittedly, there is an old generation of frustrated former functionaries that is unable to move their minds. They are only a small part, and age out.

Agreed.
Not agreed. In surveys a significant majority of the East Germans is against militarily supporting Ukraine with Heavy/Offensive Weapons.
Some of that are the old farts who are still wanting back their GDR. But that is not the majority. The sad fact is that also a high proportion of the younger generation of Germans from the Eastern Part is against the military support. And that is why both, the Left's and the AfD are against it as well. The reason behind that is a bit difficult to find out. It may be a mixture between general Anti- Westernism/Americanism (because they feel being the losers of Unification - which is to some extent understandable: They lost almost all its Industry, the bosses of Administration, Universities, Justice and Industry are even after 30 Years still >85% from the Western part = "the winners"). Contributing may be general fear of Russia traded over from their parents (for whome Russia was an omnipresent and dominant threat) and being afraid to 'poke the Bear'.
The latter being also an issue in the Western Part of Germany. There, Fear of escalation for sure dominates over deep ingrained admiration for Russia.

Fear of Nuclear war is over- proportionally high in Germany. This is probably exacerbated by the WWII experience of total destruction of pratically all medium and bigger cities (typically cities with >50.000 inhaitants were >60% destroyed) which was pretty close to how a city would look after a nuclear hit. Effectively Germany had hundreds of Hiroshimas minus the radiation. Plus the fact that it is densely populated, i.e. there is not much space where to move if one or multiple cities/areas become ininhabitable.

Somehow I feel it is a mixture of the above which leads to this hesitance.

Pistorius has confirmed that the German Leo contribution will be delivered in late March, which simply makes it official that there will be very little possibility of operating/advancing over frozen ground. The Poles might possibly be able to deliver quicker, but that presumably depends on the duration of the training programme they have put in place.

Another interesting snippet is that it is claimed that an unnamed ally has sent a request to Germany to permit the supply of cluster-munitions. I'm not going to search the treaty date, but they must be moderately old ( although generally it seems munitions stock can date back quite a way ) From the way the discussion is reported, it seems to me as if the country involved is most likely Poland.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html

The BBC mentioned something about the tanks from the USA taking a year to get there.
I think elsewhere it’s also been mentioned that the Abrams are old kit that they need to recondition / update before sending them.
Can anyone tell me if either’s true?

That was close


Spare parts for Mig 29's supplied previously by Poland to Ukraine were ermmmm cough, cough, allegedly all wrapped up in complete aircraft :E

Late March means less than 8 weeks, or two months if you like. That's very fast, unless of course they have already prepared all the equipment that needs to be changed as UKR ones (at least comms) and the crews are already trained/in training. At least the crews must've been chosen and on their way to training already.

As stated previously, the Aid program under which the Abrams are being funded is one where funds are supplied to the equipment manufacturer, in this case General Dynamics Land Systems when they sign a contract with the customer.

GDLS signed a $1.1B contract in August with Poland for the manufacture of 250 tanks and a follow-on order for another 116 on 4th Jan, with production starting to finish in late 2024 and delivery from 2025 - so Ukraine is at the bck of a long line unless Poland agrees to let them jump the queue.

I wouldn’t hold your breath on them getting a delivery from GDLS before late 2025.

Their best hope is to, eventually, get some early from US stocks (or try to buy some Egypt who have a M1A1 production line and have built over 1300 under licence.)

Wars vary rarely end because there are no people left. They end when there is no fuel, food, energy, weapons or will left to fight them.
WW1, WW2, Vietnam, Afghanistan are all examples of this.
This war will end politically due to one of the above.

It's not true. The US Army is positively dripping with Abrams tanks with countless stored and many produced simply to go direct-to-storage. A few years back the US Army was nudging towards 4 tanks per qualified crew. No doubt the numbers have changed since but you get the idea.

The Abrams MBT was supposed to end serial production (IIRC) in 1992. It didn't, initially as a consequence of GW1 and the subsequent upgrade in capabilities. Since then the Abrams has been in production, partly due to exports but primarily through pork-barrel politics.

There have been several years when the US Army asked for zero new tanks, but got them anyway. Around 3 or 4 years where the US Army specifically stated they really didn't want any more due to storage costs, but got them anyway. In more recent years the US Army (under the new system) asked for zero but produced an 'unfunded list' that included extra Abrams, which then was funded by Congress, to a number slightly higher than the US Army had on it's unfunded list. Go figure.

The DoD did manage some reasonably significant exports but still found itself swamped with Abrams MBTs after the USMC decided to divest themselves of all their Abrams....

The last '5 Year Plan' for Abrams was back in 2021, where the US Army was set to receive even more Abrams MBTs. Under the FY23 revision they have asked to reduce the Abrams buy from 102 down to just 22. They also have an aspiration to reduce their FY24 buy from 101 to 30 and for FY25 from 113 to 53. They are still on the hook for at least 40 (more like 100+) per year after that. The factory pumps out 15 MBTs a month and the pork needs to be barrelled...



(All figures correct to my memory alone but unlikely to be far off. I'm not minded to wade through my notes!)

I find your post difficult to understand. When you write " They end when there is no fuel, food, energy, weapons or will left to fight them" you make it sound as if this is mutual exhaustion and the opponents have fought themselves to a standstill and then subsequently quote WW2 as an example. I can't agree with that. The Allies finished by steam-rollering the Germans into unconditional surrender. That is exactly the opposite of what you claim. I would agree with you on the other wars.

Ex-GRU Officer explains Putin’s Nuclear Threats

A cracking interview. 30 mins but worth watching through if only to watch a prize BS merchant in action.

Agreed, but wasn't that WWII "steamrollering" down to the Nazis having exhausted their supplies? Their food and fuel supplies, and their war machine, had been all but annihilated in the months before the final surrender. I believe even the civilian population were virtually starving towards the end.

The effectiveness of destroying supply chains is proven. If Ukraine had better means to hit the Russian supply chains at their locations just outside HIMARS range then they could end this war sooner. There's evidence that Russia's ability to supply its troops is poor. May not need to be made to get much worse before it fails. Russia is being forced to have long supply lines to the front, thanks to long range artillery pushing their forward bases back. Push those bases back a bit further and it could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

Pity that ER GMLRS isn't on-stream yet. Extending the range of HIMARS out to 150km could make a hell of a difference.

Hey, if they didn't have the cigarette lighter in, then that would do it for me... Well done Poland, Go 303 SQN!

Someone needs to explain to me why the Poles should have anything other than utter distrust for Russia for the last 120 years of history.

1. Katyn
2. Von Ribbentrop-Molotov
3. Occupation of Poland
4. Extermination of Poles

"Poles were the first nation to have been subject to extermination in the Soviet Union solely on grounds of nationality. Over the course of the Polish Operation, conducted between 1937 and 1938, nearly 140,000 were persecuted, with 111,000 suffering immediate death. The sole criterion of repression was Polish nationality. It was the first nationally-motivated act of genocide in a communist state, as opposed to mass killings carried out on political, social or classist grounds." [1]

If they appease the apologists with platitudes, while providing support to a country suffering the genocide that Russia has conducted in Ukraine, then bless them, and pass the ammo.






[1] https://warsawinstitute.org/post-war...4-1963-poland/

Well yes, but that will be the case in all "successful" wars. As I pointed out, uxb's post indicates that both sides are exhausted: clearly not the case in WW2.

The GLSDB missiles may be available in a couple of months. I wonder if Russia will make any pre-emptive moves as regards their supply dumps, or wait until they begin exploding.

(military content)
Don't anyone dare think RF is not working behind our lines.

I would have expected the Germans to let the Ukrainians make any "Ukrainian " modifications. Whether that would happen in Germany, or only after transfer to Ukraine, obviously I have no idea.

quite possible, however I would like to have all the time consuming modifications done in the safety of other countries.

Russkies will be looking for the opportunity to take those out, so why do the modifications in Ukraine.

I would imagine they would have a modification centre at or near the point of delivery just over the border in a NATO Country, just the same as the US repair artillery damaged in the war across the Border in a NATO Country. Then any future mods found to be required wouldn't mean shipping it back to the likes of Germany, Norway etc.

Remember they are coming from all over Europe so you will want a centralised modification depot, as one in each Country would be a waste of manpower and resources.

Can't find it at the moment, but earlier in this thread there was a post about a large training and maintenance depot just over the border in Poland, I believe. Makes a lot of sense. Also fits with the proactive role Poland has played from the start. I can understand that. Worked with a few Polish blokes over the years. One universal thing about all of them was their hatred of Russia. No doubt Poland's support is also driven by them not wanting another Russian puppet state on their borders.

US Department of the Treasury Sanctions Russian Proxy Wagner Group as a Transnational Criminal Organization

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1220

Summary:

"WASHINGTON — Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is taking additional actions to degrade the Russian Federation’s capacity to wage war against Ukraine by sanctioning six individuals and 12 entities. Today’s action, concurrent with additional sanctions actions by the Department of State, targets the infrastructure that supports battlefield operations in Ukraine, including producers of Russia’s weapons and those administering Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. Notably, today’s actions include the designation of persons that support Russian defense-related entities. “As sanctions and export controls on Russia from our international coalition continue to bite, the Kremlin is desperately searching for arms and support – including through the brutal Wagner Group – to continue its unjust war against Ukraine,” said Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen. “Today’s expanded sanctions on Wagner, as well as new sanctions on their associates and other companies enabling the Russian military complex, will further impede Putin’s ability to arm and equip his war machine.”

Also very very wrong regarding the Great War. "The Hundred Days" was a vindication of the way the citizen armies of GB, the Dominions, France [once it pulled itself together after the mutinies] and the fresh USA had learned and applied the lessons of all-arms cooperation, and the concept of exploiting a schwerpunkt. Germany had exhausted itself in its last throw of the dice in March and April, the population was near starvation, and the Eastern front was a mess. Mutual inability to continue the war did not happen. I doubt if it ever does.

I wonder outloud if the slow-ish delivery of MBTs might pursuade Putin to go preemptively for another February offensive. Probably unwise because he appears weaker and Ukraine is certainly stronger. Tactical nuclear might do the trick for him, but unless NATO is even more full of wind and p1ss than the barber's cat, the response would erase his occupying forces.

Then we get to the more general threat of a nuclear exchange. If the tea lady on the 6th floor in Defence knows it will happen, we would like to be told who the targets are; my survival bunker needs refurbishing.

Could do worse than copy the pindar. I spent an unhappy few months working down there 30 years ago. During my short stint in MB there were only gods on the 6th floor and above. Mere mortals weren't allowed up there.

If you leave the BS aside you can at least see quite well where they miscalculated and how badly they miscalculated. And now they have zero clue how to get out of this mess with the head up high.
They totally underestimated the 'West'. And we are a not totally unguilty for this. The general image we left as a whole was obsiously to heterogeneous, pondering, split, selfish, undecisive. Now, Russia has found out that when it counts the 'West' can act quite united. And if they count 1 + 1 they would find that the capability gap is orders of magnitudes bigger than they probably expected in their worst nightmares. They are worried over 150 Leopards + Abrams. The 'West' has >5000 of those. 30 HIMARS (w/o ATACMS) +20 CAESARs + 15 PzH2000 + a few more modern howitzers cause Havoc with them. The 'West' has hundreds of each of those. And this covers only the 'weak spot' of the 'West', i.e. its land forces. The real strength of the 'West' is its Air Force. With totally overwhelming disparity: 1000+ Top Gen 5 Fighters vs. 5- 10 dubious ones. 1400 Gen4.5 Fighters vs. 220 (+ 150 Gen4.5 Bombers). + >3000 Gen 4 Fighters vs 200 + 270 Gen 4 Bombers. And this is not even considering real world capability.
They are up sh*t creek without a paddle and they know it. That's why also this guy was keeping the implicit nuclear threat up. It's their last straw.

I wasn't sure about WW1, so had a quick read up. Given that the war ended in an armistice and not a surrender, that the the aggressor nation was not physically invaded and (imo ) both sides were exhausted ( American influx excluded ) then I would say that is in line with uxb's premise.

Tea person :=

Canada sends four Leopards and a training team to Ukraine.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/cana...says-1.6247335

*other drinks are available

Every time one thinks one has seen it all... the Russkies take incompetence yet a step further.

Coming soon to a sky nr you..

​​​​​​​

Just watched that Interview:

I found it hard to work out the fact that Dmitiri Trenin said right at the end, "That the stakes are so much higher for Russia, I think that Russia will prevail over the West".

Well, he might be right. However, given the numbers as Henra is claiming in #13987 (just above), how can Russia win?

Is Dmitiri another example of the Russian Motherland mindset (shown by many recent interviews of the normal Russian public), being superior, never failing, always strong, always survive?
Or was the talk of 'maybe' Nuclear weapons being used as a last means for Russia to PREVAIL...?

US sends the beefed up A2 version of the Abrams. Good.

Just how sad is this regardless of sides.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....42e323170.jpeg

The German army was routed utterly before it had got back home.
A slower read would reveal that there was a BAOR occupying the Rhineland in 1919, that Germany was starving and that massive reparations were exacted.
the British Army, mostly conscripts, led by very experienced NCOs and officers was far from exhausted. Tempered in tbe flames.

I only need room for my wives. As the tea person is a fount of knowledge I want a hotline to him/ her/ they/ it.

What a bunch of muppets..

Langleybaston


Thanks for that correction my mother was born in an American hospital in the French part of the occupied territory, grandfather having been gassed earlier in WWI was now part of the army of occupation.

Clive R

Wasn't one of the deciding factors in Germany loosing WW1 the successful naval blockade of food and supplies? Ironically the same tactic Hitler tried in WW2 but failed.

It's only fair that the Z-team gets tanks as donation as well :E

Yes I believe so but the naval side of the Great War is not in my Mastermind brief.
The even broader picture is the respective governments' ability and willingness to care for soldiers' dependents. In this respect, the British led the field, with compulsory allotments from soldiers pay, and dependents' allowances based on status and age. By contrast, the French and Germans were not "Welfare State". This also applied to death benefits, disablement, wounds etc.
That is emphatically NOT to claim that British soldiers and dependents were particularly well paid or treated, just better than others. Apart from minor incidents [in the scale of things] the British army was not subjected to mutinies, mass desertions and malingering. A huge subject, a long way from aviation, but has some bearing on UKR versus RUS, and the welfare systems in place.