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Hi LW50, thanks for the response, although I have no idea how you conclude bias from ramblings (opionionated or otherwise) on a cyber forum. Sometimes it's good to play good cop and bad cop in order to strike a balanced opinion.
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But for all their liberal values, I would just ask the politicians to answer one question: how did we, UK plc, feel when it transpired that the Libyans were arming the IRA? Because this is a carbon copy - we are seeking to arm a section of society in another country because we believe they are right, whilst the sitting government believes that very same section of society to be terrorists. Also Iraqi Shiite militias are now poring in on the side of the rebels. Making the conflict even more sectarian. Problem is, you can't protect the innocents when the crossfire is still going on. At the root of this is not a desire to get involved on either side per se, but the problem of whether involvement will stop said crossfire. My take is that any foreign intervention will just get both sides shooting at you, and the innocents will still get killed. As perhaps with many civil wars, the only options for the innocents are to flee the warzone or to cease being innocents and choose sides. EDIT: Vlad says it makes no sense to arm terroristic Islamists At least 600 Russians and Europeans fighting alongside Syrian opposition ? Putin ? RT News I mostly agree with him, but there's one small bit he's not mentioning. This whole dick measuring contest has to do with regional strategy, which means Iran. The US did Iran a huge favor by taking out Saddam. So, now that has to be corrected for. Looked at through that lens, a few hundred thousand dead Arabs of various sorts in the middle east doesn't matter, does it? See 8 years of war between Iran and Iran for an interesting parallel on what price is deemed suitable to give Iran the mickey. |
Dozens dead as Syrian war spreads to Sidon in Lebanon
Snipers out on the streets as Lebanese army scours city for anti-Hezbollah cleric |
The Washington Post reported this morning that the Russians are pulling what few of their citizens remain in Syria, at Tartus, out.
Their task force will, when needed, make port calls in Cyprus. (I imagine elsewhere as well, depending upon political things ... ) The article implied that this isn't a sudden move, but a culmination of slowly removing some 30,000 Russian citizens from Syria over the last year or so. It also makes me wonder: removing a potential source of friction between UN/NATO and Russia should our pols get a bit more froggy? :confused: Not sure what to make of this. |
Apparantly there were only 4 permanent servicemen at Tartus anyway....
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Interesting report, Lonewolf.
The report has appeared in the Russian media. All personnel withdrawn from Russian navy base in Syria - diplomat Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister says all personnel had been evacuated from the navy resupply base in Tartus, Syria, adding that not a single Russian military serviceman remained in the country. Mikhail Bogdanov made the announcement in an interview with the Al-Hayat newspaper. “Presently, the Russian Defense Ministry has not a single person stationed in Syria. The base does not have any strategic military importance,” the newspaper quoted the Russian official as saying. Russian media have verified the statement and the business daily Vedomosti quoted an unnamed source in the Defense Ministry as saying that this was true as all military and civilian personnel had been evacuated from the Tartus base and there were no Russian military instructors working with the Syrian military forces. The source added that the withdrawal was prompted not only by the increased risks caused by the ongoing military conflict, but also by the fact that in the current conditions any incident involving Russian servicemen would likely have some unfavorable reaction from the international community. The Black Sea Fleet Amur Class Repair Ship PM-138 is still hove to at Tartus. She arrived there during late April 2013. PM-138 regularly sends a Morse weather message. I just checked the 18Z transmission on 8345 Kilohertz. The weather report contains a lat long, course and speed. 8345 RCV DE RBIZ 27181 99349 10358 22200 @1813Z 34.9N 35.8E Hove to Tartus, Syria 34.9N 35.8E - Google Maps Image of PM-138 on her way to Tartus to replace Amur Class (PM-56) PM-138 Russian Floating Workshop Passing Through Bosphorus | The following website is excellent for keeping track of Russian Navy movements through the Turkish Straits. Russian Warship Movements Through Turkish Straits (Part 15) | |
Teej, thanks.
The Russian task force remaining in the Med is the more important consideration, and I don't think it's going anywhere any time soon. |
No problem, Lonewolf.
The Admiral Kuznetsov Carrier Group is scheduled to make a return to the Mediterranean by the end of 2013. The Russians are also seeking use of a Cypriot air base and port facilities. Financially strapped Cyprus is looking at allowing Russian military aircraft to use an airbase in Paphos, the country's defense minister said this weekend. Cypriot Defense Minister Fotis Fotiu told the Nicosia daily Fileleftheros the country was "studying the possibility of providing in certain cases" the use of the Andreas Papandreou Air Force Base for Russian military aircraft. He also indicated allowing Russian warships to use the port of Limassol was under consideration, less than two weeks after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the restoration of a permanent presence for the Russian fleet in the Mediterranean. The Admiral Kuznetsov heavy aircraft carrier will be ready to act as part of a Russian naval group in the Mediterranean by the end of 2013, Navy Commander Adm. Viktor Chirkov said. "The cruiser will complete its planned maintenance at the end of the year. It is expected to put out and perform a number of missions in an offshore oceanic zone as part of a group. |
Another day, another atrocity...
Catholic Priest 'Beheaded by Al-Qaida Fighters' in Northern Syria - IBTimes UK |
During a congressional hearing on Syria’s religious minorities on Tuesday last week, testimony came out that Syrians are asking why the Unites States is supporting the Islamic extremists who want to turn Syria into an Islamic state.
In an opening statement at Tuesday's hearing, Chairman Smith said statistics show "that Christians are even more fearful for their lives and safety than other segments of the Syrian population." Nina Shea, director of the Hudson Institute's Center for Religious Freedom, testified that Islamic insurgents are targeting Christians for "ethno-religious cleansing." Christian Solidarity International CEO Dr. John Eibner, recently in Syria and who also testified at the hearing, said the United States should work with Russia to negotiate a peace rather than help Sunni Muslims turn the country into an Islamic state. Interesting concept there, work with the Russians to get a solution, but I doubt if Obama would go for that. Bob C |
"Interesting concept there, work with the Russians to get a solution, but I doubt if Obama would go for that."
Nope, because he would have to share the limelight. He also can't see that Russia might be a good party to use as a negotiator as they have history in the country. |
MANPAD attrition of regime helicopters continues + many destroyed on the ground.
Lots of government armour being destroyed by ATGMs. The rebels seem to have a plentiful supply of these. On the government side there are lots of Iranians and Hezbollah who seem to be far more effective than Syrian troops. Likewise the rebel fighting now seems to be mainly the Jihadist Al Nusra Front, who are largely foreigners. They are very effective firstly because many of them are experienced fighters from other conflicts such as Chechnya, Libya and Iraq. Secondly because their nutty religion says that their death caused by a war against fellow muslims is a very good thing. These salafists are attacking Syrian Christian civilians at random. However bad things are now, they are going to get worse. Neither side thinks they can lose, or wants to negotiate. There is massive destruction in the country, infrastructure, buildings, military equipment and human lives. It is becoming a battlefield of rubble, like Beirut. The most effective weapons are man portable. Anything much bigger is vulnerable. Saudi, Qatar and now the USA are pouring man portable weapons into the country to keep the rebels effective. Most of these weapons end up with Al Nusra. Israel is gearing up to act. Their air force have just finished a major exercise in Bulgaria against an integrated air defence. Israel have struck several times in Syria this year, mostly unreported. They don't want Syria to become an Iranian proxy on their doorstep. |
Says it all really, one supposes these are the other lot that Haig isn't going to arm.
15-year-old boy executed for blasphemy by Syria jihadists - Telegraph Horrific video shows Syrian Catholic priest being 'beheaded by jihadist fighters in front of cheering crowd' | Mail Online Al-Qaeda calls on Syrian rebels to build anti-Western state - Telegraph The current encumbant suddenly starts to look not that bad. .. |
Western support for these rebels is disgusting. I am totally ashamed at what our leaders are doing. We keep getting told about the terrorist threat we apparently face and yet our government are supporting the terrorists!
I am sure Libya was much the same. |
A definition of madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
Why on earth do the Western politicians once again believe that supplying arms to extremists is a good idea and the weapons will never be used against us? We should follow the lead of Turkey, Brazil & Egypt, and organise mass protests to show our respective governments how much we despise them. As an aside, imagine the uproar in the Islamic world if we beheaded a Mullah with a kitchen knife and allowed the images to go viral. |
Arming islamist rebels in Syria = good :confused:
Elected islamist government in Egypt = bad :confused: |
If the major concern is that Syria's CW's will be used against the West, then why give military support to the so called "rebels", which include the salafists, and hence destabilizing the nation to the point where they could fall into the wrong hands?
The double-speak, propaganda, and hypocrisy of the West's involvement in Syria is despicable! |
I see al lot of parallels between the Spanish Civil War, which to various degrees involved Germany and Italy giving their support to Franco whilst an "international brigade" took sides with the Nationalists who eventually lost convincingly, after ten of thousands were killed either in combat or in multiple atrocities, carried out by both sides.
The main point is that then the League of Nations took no part and the major powers UK, France, USA just watched or tried to enforce a weak naval blockade, or did nothing. Just like the UN et al are doing now. The whole of the Middle East is a tinder-box and parts have already been set alight and the "fire" is now out of control now and arming the rebels (whoever they are) won't stop the fire spreading or put it out. The traditional super powers are weaker now in relative terms then they were during the height of the cold war and the threat of intervention is no longer a deterrent in the way it perhaps once was. Emerging powers in the region such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey are not ready to support intervention by a UN-backed coalition and in any event Russia and China have their own agendas and would veto even the introduction of a no-fly zone. In short, the West is s*****ed! I am afraid IMHO that it will get a lot worse for the people of Syria (on both sides) before the killing and destruction will stop.:ugh::ugh: MB |
It is by now fairly obvious that, within 30 days of the final handover to Afghanistan's security forces of all responsibility for maintaining order, the Taliban will have taken control of the whole of the country as opposed to the large swathes of it they presently control. The cabal of corrupt and ineffectual politicians nominally in charge will either join them or run.
That fact should penetrate through to Messrs Cameron, Hague et al, even through the barriers surrounding the Westminster village they inhabit, so that they think twice about initiating a third badly-thought out, extremely costly, pointless and ultimately useless intervention, with the inevitable death toll, between different sects of Muslims. But maybe it won't. |
It is by now fairly obvious that, within 30 days of the final handover to Afghanistan's security forces of all responsibility for maintaining order, the Taliban will have taken control of the whole of the country as opposed to the large swathes of it they presently control. Remember the Northern Alliance was at war with the Taliban government for many many years, and it was their forces, with Allied air and SF support who defeated them. With the arms and expertise they've built up over the years I can see no way the Taliban would make any substantial inroads into their homelands in the north. The question would be if they ended up in an uneasy national alliance or another prolonged civil war. |
ORAC, you are quite right and I am guilty of gross over-simplification in the search for a succinct phrase.
Perhaps I should have said that within 60 days (+/- 30 days) the political situation in Afghanistan will be pretty much what it was before the Taliban were pushed out of Kabul all those years ago. That, too is an oversimplification; what I'm really getting at is that our leaders should learn that squabbling Muslims are best left to get on with it, that BS about saving the world from Al Qaida is never credible when it emanates from a Western politician's backside, and that the intervention in Afghanistan has changed nothing. |
The question would be if they ended up in an uneasy national alliance or another prolonged civil war. |
The horrors of civil war are not unique to Syria, Al Qaeda or any side.
Innocent civilians take refuge in a church, which the State soldiers then set fire to. The soldiers accept the surrender of the civilians, then promptly strip them naked and murder them in the street. Damascus 2013? No, a nice little village in England, 1643. ( and it was "moste barbarouslie & contr[ar]y to the Lawes of Armes" even then) I am unaware of any civil war having been 'civil', and I don't think a daily detailed description of atrocities helps matters. In fact, I find it gratuitous. |
Key White House Ally Wants 'Targeted' Strikes in Syria
WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, an influential Obama administration ally on Capitol Hill, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.” Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King............ Any US military involvement in the kinds of “targeted strikes” called for by Levin and King would come with a hefty price. As America learned with the Libya intervention, even modern-day aerial bombardments from aircraft and naval vessels are extremely costly. The cost of the Libya mission was around $1 billion, according to Pentagon data released in 2011. Congressional sources are mixed about whether a new 2013 emergency spending measure tailored specifically for a Syrian effort would be needed. Some say it would depend on the shape and duration — as well as the level of direct US military involvement — of such a mission. |
Libya 2.0. Well at least they aren't calling it "humanitarian" this time.
They will never get this idea through the UN after the mission creep over Libya, so the US and their associated lapdogs will have to go it alone. They also need to make up their mind quickly, recent government gains are pushing the jihadis closer to defeat. TTFN |
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Syrian P-800 AShMs destroyed by Incognito State Reacting to Arms Embargo Limitations
Syria naval base blast points to Israeli raid
Asked about the Latakia blasts, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon told reporters: "We have set red lines in regards to our own interests, and we keep them. There is an attack here, an explosion there, various versions - in any event, in the Middle East it is usually we who are blamed for most." |
We are backing the wrong side.
Al-Qaida in Syria is most serious terrorist threat to UK, says report | World news | guardian.co.uk |
We have been backing the wrong side and the conflict is spreading to Lebanon as well as threatening stability elsewhere.
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WASHINGTON — The United States should press Syria and Russia to enter into talks to end the Syrian civil war, including “targeted” strikes on Bashar al-Assad’s military forces, a White House ally said Tuesday. Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sen. Carl Levin, is calling for America and its allies to conduct “limited, targeted strikes at Assad’s apparatus of terror, including airplanes, helicopters, missiles, tanks and artillery.” I'll suggest that Senator Levin's Jewish ancestry can be used as a political rhetorical point by Assad, Iran, and those fun loving folks of all sorts who believe that the recent attacks on the missile warehouse "seems to be from Israel" (who knows, at this point?) ... and thus part of a US/Zionist plot to do X evil thing in Syria for Y reason. I'd say he's tone deaf to the politics of the region. He's also tone deaf to the politico military fusion. Such strikes should be “coordinated with the actions of the Syrian opposition on the ground,” the Michigan Democrat said in a joint statement with fellow SASC member Angus King, I-Maine. “Such strikes could degrade Assad’s military capabilities, bring some relief to the embattled Syrian people, show we are serious,” said Levin and King. Senator, please learn this: THERE IS NO COOKIE CUTTER! :ugh: Would somebody please send him a clue? :mad: |
With great respect to all, I have no intent to offend anyone, but, I believe that we have a situation here where 8 pints Hague, Camoron and a few other rabid warmongers have decided that we need to get involved, militarily, in a civil war that is nothing to do with our country, offers no threat to our country and we can't afford it anyway. There is now evidence, and I see no reason why we should disbelieve Russian reports more than American reports, that the people we are supporting are actually the people lobbing the chemical sh1t around. As a taxpayer and voting citizen of this country, my vote would go to keeping well away from this quagmire of international disingenuity. Not that I will get that vote. Reading this thread I believe that many posters have the happy disposition of being able to say "I told you so" when it all goes tits up and Bill and "Roly Poly" Dave look stupid.
Smudge |
+1 to the above. But Dave a rabid warmonger? I don't think he's a rabid anything; he just leans with the wind like the rest of them.
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Points well made, smuj, and I think no few American tax payers feel as you do. As I noted a few weeks back, supporting Jordan and their effort to aid and deal with refugees ought to be the focus of American efforts in the area for two reasons:
It's a humanitarian mess that risks becoming worse It's a condition that can potentially destabilize Jordan, who have been a decent ally for some time It's a good way to show that Americans care about the people in the area. That message isn't always well made. Feeding weapons to rebels who are as likely to be allies of Al Q as not seems a poor long term strategy. The US has for a variety of "realist" reasons put up with despots of various sorts and quality for decades. Why Assad is especially unworthy to be worked with needs a bit better explanation to me, given some of the thugs we've supported over the years to advance our larger interests. :p |
I found a possible explaination for my question at post number 1.
Debacle: An event or enterprise that ends suddenly and disastrously, often with humiliating consequences. OAP |
Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight. This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won! The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship. This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely. Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win. Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters. The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose. Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit. Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference. Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary. A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain. Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity. |
Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front. So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight. This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won! The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship. This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely. Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win. Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters. The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose. Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit. Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference. Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary. A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain. Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity. |
Lonewolf. Here is the simple BBC reference you want: BBC News - Key Free Syria Army rebel 'killed by Islamist group'
More nuanced: Al-Qaeda Tries to Control Areas Liberated by Free Syrian Army - Al-Monitor: the Pulse of the Middle East |
Good stuff, thanks.
Kamal Hamami was in charge of a key brigade within the Free Syrian Army (FSA). He is believed to have met members of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in the port city of Latakia to inform them of a planned offensive in the area, before being ambushed and shot dead. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A year ago the jihadis were still operating almost underground in Syria. Now they are powerful and important players, in some places running whole towns, where they impose Sharia law. "This is a disaster for us, a disaster for the revolution," a female opposition activist told me. She was complaining about Islamist gunmen telling her not to smoke, to cover her head, and to leave meetings where she was the only woman. The jihadis had grown in popularity because of corruption and infighting among the FSA. The moral clarity of the early days of the uprising has been lost. Then, people wanted to defend themselves against overwhelming and brutal force - and ultimately to replace a corrupt, one-party dictatorship. Now the revolution itself has become corrupt and, in rebel-held areas, people fear a different kind of tyranny: crime, kidnapping, gangsterism. Tunisi ordered all FSA members in his area of control to declare their allegiance to ISI and to hand over their weapons. FSA intelligence has learned that ISI is sending weapons to Iraq. According to security sources, Iran has penetrated al-Qaeda since 2004 and has used it to further Iranian goals in Iraq, and today in Syria. An Iraqi security official said to Azzaman that al-Qaeda is doing in Syria what it did in Iraq: killing anyone who refuses to surrender his weapons and swear allegiance. ISI has killed many fighters that were fighting US troops in Iraq. The source said that ISI is helping the Syrian regime, either with or without coordination, by killing armed oppositionists in Syria. |
Confirmation that there are now three sides: Syrian rebels and al-Qaeda-linked fighters battling each other at key checkpoint in Aleppo - Washington Times
But the extremist nutters have fallen out with each other! ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) and al Nusra are the two main nutter salafist groups. ISIS think al Nusra aren't extreme enough. And al Nusra think that ISIS are too extreme. Al Nusra?s Syria Strategy; Update: FSA declares war on ISIS ? 2.0: The Blogmocracy So we are on the very verge of a four way war. There are other factions on the ground including Hezbollah, the Kurds, Christians and Druze. All armed and fighting. Alliances are constantly shifting, depending on many factors including who has the most money/arms. Soldiers often switch groups. Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side. Afghani fighters are also arriving now they have beaten the UK/USA in their own country. Messy doesn't even begin to describe what is happening. Israel is the biggest factor. They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran. Assad and Hezbollah are both Iranian clients so Israel wants them both beaten. The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved. Creating trouble between them and the Sunnis. And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit. In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists. Interesting times. |
So we are on the very verge of a four way war. Large numbers of fighters have arrived from Iraq, some fighting on the Sunni side and some on the Shia side. Israel is the biggest factor. They are a regional superpower and are already engaged in a undeclared war with Iran. They are a regional power. (And one not to be taken lightly, of course). The big car bomb in a Hezbollah district in the Lebanon this week looked like Mossad was involved. And there have been repeated Israeli air strikes against Gucci kit. In the diplomatic world it appears that the USA and Russia are getting much closer (despite Snowden). They both have a huge vested interest in acting against islamic extremists. Interesting times. |
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