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" ..linking automatically to a single party..."yes, agreed, but in this case the very strong balance of probability is these cw were deployed by the regime.
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Originally Posted by Herod
(Post 9734378)
Isn't it just possible that the intelligence services know considerably more than they are putting in the public domain, for us to argue over?
This the same intelligence services that took 10 years to find Osama and told everybody about WMD's in Iraq......................... their record on anything is so bad that it is laughable. |
Racedo
You have enough information to make that claim? Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question. You look foolish to draw conclusions on everything they do. Makes identifying the drama queens easy enough though. |
Someone needs to discover oil in Syria. We'd sort it out quick enough then.
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Originally Posted by DroneDog
(Post 9735075)
Did the west not intervene and remove all the chemical weapons from Assad's forces.
OPCW Pressing Syria on Declaration Gaps April 2016 By Daniel Horner Hamid Ali Rao, deputy director-general of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (left) and OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü (right) during the annual meeting of the states-parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention in The Hague on December 3, 2015. (Photo: OPCW)Hamid Ali Rao, deputy director-general of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (left) and OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü (right) during the annual meeting of the states-parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention in The Hague on December 3, 2015. (Photo: OPCW)The policymaking body of the international organization that oversaw the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons expressed concern last month about problems with Syria’s formal accounting of its chemical stockpile and urged resolution of the problems in the next few months. In a March 23 decision document, the Executive Council of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) cited a report to the council by OPCW Director-General Ahmet Üzümcü. The report has not been publicly released, but the council document described it as saying that the OPCW Technical Secretariat “is unable at present to verify fully that the declaration and related submissions of the Syrian Arab Republic are accurate and complete.” Countries are required to submit a declaration of their stockpiles when they join the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Syria did in 2013. Questions about the declaration emerged almost immediately and have persisted since then. At a meeting in Washington last month, a U.S. official said the council action and the request for the Üzümcü report on which the decision was based were part of a U.S. initiative stemming from a feeling that the issue required higher-level political attention. Under the resolution, Üzümcü is to meet with Syrian officials and report back to the council before its next meeting, scheduled for July 12-15. Üzümcü’s meetings are to proceed in parallel with those of an OPCW unit known as the Declaration Assessment Team, which has had primary responsibility for probing the Syrian accounting and had made 15 visits to the country as of late March. In a March 15 statement to the council on behalf of the European Union, Pieter van Donkersgoed of the Netherlands said the list of unresolved questions “has been increasing during the last two years and is still growing.” Among the issues he cited as examples were “the fate of the 2000 aerial bombs [designed to carry chemical agents] that Syria claims to have converted” into conventional weapons and the discovery by the Declaration Assessment Team of “traces of chemicals directly linked” to the production of the nerve agents sarin, VX, and soman. |
Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 9735224)
Racedo
You have enough information to make that claim? Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question. You look foolish to draw conclusions on everything they do. Makes identifying the drama queens easy enough though. 14 years on from Iraq invasion yup reckon I do................ Finding Osama 10 years after 9/11 yup reckon that info is well and truly proven. Course if you wish to disprove that and show how Intelligence agencies had that information all the time but just kept it from Governments then go ahead. So should we trust the CIA in they stating that the Russians turned the US Presidential election to elect current incumbent or should we rely on other US Intelligence networks which have said that didn't happen. |
Racedo
Your comment, "record on anything " marks you as a lightweight. If you're willing to condemn them in totality, then that infers you have the data to do so, which armed with media reports means you dont. There are posters here that earn my respect by offering salient, adult like positions. You're not one of them as you choose to offer sweeping positions when you're clueless to the entirety of the subject you mention. How do you know the positions the CIA held internally about all the major positions of the past 15 years? I can imagine there was robust discussions and position/point papers in varying directions as to Iraq and Afghanistan. |
A few of years ago a huge underground bunker of Saddam-era chemical weapons was discovered in Iraq. It was so heavily sealed however that the temporary occupying fighters seemed at the time unlikely to have been able to open it. My memory is hazy regarding the where and when.
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Originally Posted by racedo
(Post 9735167)
This the same intelligence services that took 10 years to find Osama and told everybody about WMD's in Iraq......................... their record on anything is so bad that it is laughable.
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2002...aqspecialoct02 It always surprises me that nobody wonders where the unaccounted ones went. |
Googling "Saddam era chemical weapons bunker captured by ISIS" brings up numerous reports from 2014; this one the Torygraph
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Originally Posted by Doctor Cruces
(Post 9735244)
Someone needs to discover oil in Syria. We'd sort it out quick enough then.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpre...mption-eia.png There is oil in Syria, however, not quite in the over abundance one finds in Iraq or Saudi. The line on the map from Sikes Picot didn't quite settle over the sweet spots for that particular country. |
Someone needs to discover the plans for a proposed gas pipeline through Syria that Assad had refused.
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Originally Posted by DroneDog
(Post 9736195)
Someone needs to discover the plans for a proposed gas pipeline through Syria that Assad had refused.
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Roland Pulfrew above, many thanks.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 9735224)
Racedo
You have enough information to make that claim? Don't worry, it's a rhetorical question. You look foolish to draw conclusions on everything they do. Makes identifying the drama queens easy enough though. During the Cold War, and to a lesser extent during other UK-oriented conflicts such as NI and Falklands, intelligence was sourced from informants with a genuine ideological abhorrence of the antagonist. Modern day informants are almost universally venal - they just provide information that will maximise their personal revenue. Hence I too have a very disdainful regard for the intelligence provided by our intelligence services today. |
Lonewolf 50 is right, as usual: pipeline was among sources of trouble as many analysts say. Even RFK Jr is among them
Syria Is Another Pipeline War Was it a major reason, or just one among many, difficult to say. But coincidently, when Assad sent Qatar and Turkey to hell and started dancing with Iran, Qatar and Saudis started warming/boiling and supporting everybody who might be considered as an opposition to Assad Jr. |
UK Government cant seem to hold it together on the issue.
Boris Johnson insists Russia could still face sanctions as Government colleagues criticise 'total let down' at G7 summit Our Foreign sec. clearly the odd one out at G7 and looking increasingly isolated within the cabinet as well. I actually don't think sanctions are the answer either. Distinct credibility gaps are apparent everywhere within our side. The credibility of US and UK Govts. their intelligence services...everything really. It all utterly stinks. |
US warns Syria over 'potential' plan for chemical attack - BBC News
The US says it has identified "potential preparations" for another chemical attack in Syria, and issued a stark warning to the Syrian government. The White House said the activities were similar to those made before a suspected chemical attack in April........ The US statement warned President Bashar al-Assad of "a heavy price" if another strike occurred. It said "another chemical weapons attack by the Assad regime" was likely to result "in the mass murder of civilians". The statement added: "As we have previously stated, the United States is in Syria to eliminate the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. If, however, Mr Assad conducts another mass murder attack using chemical weapons, he and his military will pay a heavy price."....... |
Van
I think you've forgotten there was pipeline through the area for many years - the old TAP line. And it was bedevilled by politics even then - every time Syria wanted some more cash a "farmer" would "accidently" drive a bulldozer through it............................. Construction of the Trans-Arabian Pipeline began in 1947 and was mainly managed by the American company Bechtel. Originally the Tapline was intended to terminate in Haifa which was then in the British Mandate of Palestine, but due to the establishment of the state of Israel, an alternative route through Syria (Golan Heights) and Lebanon was selected with an export terminal in Sidon. The Syrian government initially opposed the plan, but ratified Tapline construction in 1949 following a military coup overthrowing democratic rule there.[1] Oil transport through the pipeline started in 1950. Since the 1967 Six-Day War, the section of the pipeline which runs through the Golan Heights came under Israeli occupation, though the Israelis permitted the pipeline's operation to continue. After years of constant arguing between Saudi Arabia and Syria and Lebanon over transit fees, the emergence of oil supertankers, and pipeline breakdowns, the section of the line beyond Jordan ceased operation in 1976. The remainder of the line between Saudi Arabia and Jordan continued to transport modest amounts of petroleum until 1990 when the Saudis cut off the pipeline in response to Jordan's support of Iraq during the first Gulf War. Today, the entire line is unfit for oil transport |
Harry
From what looks to be the source you used (Wikipedia article, which is very informative) I note the following: (1) In early 2005, rehabilitation of the Tapline at an estimated cost of US$100 to US$300 million was one of the strategic options being considered by the Jordanian government to meet oil needs. {Possible problem being the increase in diameter needed to be viable?} (2) The pipeline was built and operated by the Trans-Arabian Pipeline Company.--snip--The company continued operating with no oil being transported until the end of 2002, when Aramco fully closed the Tapline subsidiary. With things getting squirrely again, does it argue for or against opening that transfer mode again? Granted, at the moment Syria is intensely unstable, but that route seems to run less in the ISIS sorts of areas and more in the "controllable" areas. (All labels conditional, at best). |
The Trump White House is at war with reality. Threats of harsh action directed against Syria if there is another chemical weapons attack, setting up a perfect scenario for the “rebels” to stage one. And what is the evidence that such a thing is being planned? Where was the evidence tha Assad planned and carried out the Chemical attack in which Trump was so devastated about 'beautify children' being gassed that he ordered Tomahawk strikes?
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Your emotions are noted, flyhardmo. Suggest that you remember that the year is 2017, and information is a tool of war, and even moreso a tool of conflict "other than war" which seems to be the popular pastime anymore.
What Mr Assad and his crew have to now consider is as follows: If they haven't any such thing in the works, is this a good chance to send counterbattery fire of news/noise/propaganda in the other direction? Or just ignore? If they have something in the works, is Trump "bluffing or not?" (The last strike leans toward not, but the ever-mercurial President Trump might be tossing this out for a different reason). This isn't about what did or didn't previously happen: that's water under the bridge. The story you linked to is on the topic of possible futures. |
ISIS / Al Qaeda under pressure and Saudi' not happy that their mates are under presssure hence time to concoct something to enable bombing of Syrian Government to take place. SAA about to begin a big offensive in Hama province
Are Qatari's and Saudi's good guys this week or bad guys..................... just changes so often, what about Al Qaeda have they been fogiven for that little misunderstanding on 9/11. |
Reasons for starting wars:
Let us see, Vietnam - Golf of Tonkin - made up Iraq - WMD - made up Afghanistan - 9/11 - not Afghanistan, still seeking true culprits Libya - made up Syria - made up Assad is winning, ISIS is being wiped out, it would be ludicrous to suggest Assad would carry out such an attack considering the repercussions. The Syrian Free Army or ISIS if you like have everything to gain by faking an attack. Let's see how our 'bought and paid for' media react if such an attack does take place. |
Drone Dog "The Syrian Free Army or ISIS if you like..."
Are you serious? |
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Originally Posted by DroneDog
(Post 9814660)
Assad is winning, ISIS is being wiped out, it would be ludicrous to suggest Assad would carry out such an attack considering the repercussions.
Balanced against that is the general imperative in a civil war of "hit the opponent hard enough so that they stop fighting." Look at how long this civil war has been going on, and the hope that any and all of his opponents have that he'll get removed if they just keep fighting. This hope that is boosted by foreign assistance (from numerous actors) to the various factions who are his opponents. (The longer this thing goes on the more I am reminded of the Spanish Civil War, but it's got its own sort of logic ... ) Assad and his inner circle do not want a forever war. It's incredibly destructive to the unity and prosperity of their country. Would he and his team reach for something beyond the pale with the aim of "ending this?" Maybe. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, nor beyond the range of the plausible that the chemical weapons tool is perceived as useful toward that end. Preposterous? Not if you analyze it unemotionally. A good idea? If one considers the long range political fall out ... I'd say it's would be a bad move since his intent is to stay in office/stay in power in Syria. But I am not sitting in his chair trying to figure out how to do two things at once: 1. end this civil war 2. remain in office I won't pretend to know what steps he will or won't take to achieve that end. Has he actually run out of other options? I don't know, and opinions on that vary. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 9815123)
Argument from incredulity noted. Not convincing. From where I sit, it makes no sense for him to engage in a chemical attack because he knows the whole world is watching and getting into his business. Has been since the uprising 2011-2012. In the long game, politically, since his intention is to remain in power and not go into exile (or whatever) then he's got to take the long position.
Balanced against that is the general imperative in a civil war of "hit the opponent hard enough so that they stop fighting." Look at how long this civil war has been going on, and the hope that any and all of his opponents have that he'll get removed if they just keep fighting. This hope that is boosted by foreign assistance (from numerous actors) to the various factions who are his opponents. (The longer this thing goes on the more I am reminded of the Spanish Civil War, but it's got its own sort of logic ... ) Assad and his inner circle do not want a forever war. It's incredibly destructive to the unity and prosperity of their country. Would he and his team reach for something beyond the pale with the aim of "ending this?" Maybe. It's not beyond the realm of possibility, nor beyond the range of the plausible that the chemical weapons tool is perceived as useful toward that end. Preposterous? Not if you analyze it unemotionally. A good idea? If one considers the long range political fall out ... I'd say it's would be a bad move since his intent is to stay in office/stay in power in Syria. But I am not sitting in his chair trying to figure out how to do two things at once: 1. end this civil war 2. remain in office I won't pretend to know what steps he will or won't take to achieve that end. Has he actually run out of other options? I don't know, and opinions on that vary. I do wonder whether people will accept 100000 people being killed by bullets and then complain about 100 by chemical weapons? The quicker this war finishes the less will die anyway. |
Originally Posted by The Nip
(Post 9815154)
I can see your point about Assad. My question has always been, why does it matter how you kill people?
The quicker this war finishes the less will die anyway. |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 9814880)
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ISIS has recently been mostly put out of Mosul, which means their power base is moving back towards Syria. And now some news that may or may not be verifiable.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights told Reuters on Tuesday that it had "confirmed information" that Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has been killed. The report came just days after the Iraqi army recaptured the last sectors of the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, which Baghdadi's forces overran almost exactly three years ago. If he is now dead, what is the likelihood that it was an air strike, or a drone strike, that did for him? I'd say low. I suspect if he'd been targeted/taken out by an air attack, the air force would not be able to shut up about it. |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 9827791)
.... I suspect if he'd been targeted/taken out by an air attack, the air force would not be able to shut up about it.
Sometime in late June there were many publications in the Russian media with references to the Russian AF (or MoD) officials that there was a strike specially undertaken on the location where this rat was hiding. It was said that though the strike was massive and precise, it was, however, not possible to confirm for sure that he was eliminated. It was suggested to wait for intelligence data or indirect confirmation from sources linked to terrorists. Now it seems that such indirect confirmations started spreading. I agree that anyway that it is indeed very difficult to be 100% sure in such cases. |
You could scrape some DNA off the walls, I suppose but in the Russian aerial photos that I saw the buildings were gone, leaving two flat squares.
"Square bombs?" I remember thinking. |
Its going to be interesting to see what happens if and when the American backed Syrian Democratic Forces win in Raqqa. The city will swap from one anti Assad force to another so will that lead to Assad besieging the city or will it become a political bargaining chip.
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17 minutes if you have them, skydiver69.
Well considered and thought out. Includes a discussion of a possible temporary working solution to Raqqa. The women leading the fight against so-called IS in Syria - BBC News |
Someone's out there fighting, but on his own dime?
A 22-year-old British man has been killed fighting against so-called Islamic State in northern Syria, Kurdish fighters have said. Luke Rutter, of Birkenhead, Merseyside, was killed on 6 July in a neighbourhood south of Raqqa, they said. |
Vietnam - Golf of Tonkin - made up Iraq - WMD - made up Afghanistan - 9/11 - not Afghanistan, still seeking true culprits Libya - made up Syria - made up Iraq did have WMD, as Saddam Hussein had already used them against his own people. This is well documented. He chose to hamper and obstruct the work of the UN inspectors sent in to ascertain the status of his programme just ahead of the 2003 war, so giving credence to the belief that he still had them. Afghanistan - the 9/11 attacks were planned and orchestrated from that country, not Saudi Arabia. The Taliban government were given the opportunity to give Bin Laden up, but opted not too leaving the US and its allies with no alternative than to go in and get him. Libya - what was "made up" about Libya? Colonel Gadaffi publicly stated that he was going to 'exterminate the rats' in Benghazi, and the West intervened to prevent a massacre. Syria - what is "made up" about Syria. There is a war going on that the West did not start. The West has become involved to eliminate Islamic State, which has perpetrated attacks against us. |
Originally Posted by jolihokistix
(Post 9828359)
17 minutes if you have them, skydiver69.
Well considered and thought out. Includes a discussion of a possible temporary working solution to Raqqa. The women leading the fight against so-called IS in Syria - BBC News |
Originally Posted by skydiver69
(Post 9828639)
I can't see the Syrians, Iranians or Turks accepting a well armed and battle hardened pseudo Kurd state being set up in the area.
Granted, he was a little biased having worked with the Kurds quite a bit when he was in government. Let's just say that I am not the only person who referred to OIF as OKF: Operation Kurdish Freedom. I still want to see that come true, even moreso now that Erdogan is playing the neo-caliph in Istanbul. |
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