The problem is that the material in question normally has a unique signature, and can be traced to a particular processing plant.

Willard

I know, which is why I said what I said. If someone, ie the US, is going to incriminate someone else using Isotopes or some other Nuclear material, I was hinting that they have some "hidden away" meaning some that has come from known source that was stolen but can't be traced back to the US - or Israel !!! LOL

Conspiracy theories begin.

Ah yes. That was revealed to us in another Clancy book and movie, wasn't it? So, very probably true. But, when to the nuclear inspectors have the time or cability to analyse samples of nuclear material to determine its origin. Maybe it does simply balance the books.

I think you guys may have lost the plot while I've been away. It's taken me hours to read all the new posts. Can we have a unified judgement on what going to happen? I need to know because I want to make my Christmas plans.

BEagle and SAM, what are your views?

Christmas day

The North Koreans attack the south, dragging in the USA forces
Iran launches a high-speed tank strike into central Iran,which is predominantly Shia and sympathetic to Iran. They keep going into Syria, back the Assad regime, reach the Syrian Coast where they link up with the Russian fleet, who protect their flank from the sea, The Turkish border is condoned with chemical weapons to prevent Nato forces approaching through Kurdistan
Once Syria is secure and the Russians have a safe base, they move to Suez and blockade the north end of the canal. Simultaneously the Iranian fleet, already on exercises blockade the southern end of the Red Sea and close the Straits of Hormuz with mines and missiles
While all this is going on, Iran systematically targets all allied bases in the middle east with rockets - possibly chemical armed - and starts a slow infantry assault into Afghanistan
Pakistan closes its airspace to coaliton forces and seals the two passes.
Russian forces move into Khazakstan in line with mutual aid agreements and close the road north out of Afghanistan. Russia takes another poke at Georgia at the same time, just for fun

Result?
Total closure of oil routes to the west.
Isolation of Israel
An army mired down in Korea, struggling to repel the commie forces
A second army trapped in Afghanistan whose only escape route it to fight to the Pakistani coast and take control of a sea port. Even then, the closure of Suez will limit the available shipping to lift them off
Economic isolation of the Gulf states who will be forced to capitulate to Iran
The big question is Saudi -if the Iranians can create a Shia uprising then its possible the ruling al-Saud family could be overthrown. However thats not certaiin

An option is that the Iranians overthrow the Assad regime and replace it with a puppet government. Same result - Iranian control of the Mediterranean coast

JD.... You've been at my medication!

Tom Clancy needs to watch out as you might be 'out plotting' that man :ok::)

the problem is, with the drawdown of forces in Iraq,and the problems Pakistan has been giving the coalition forces over passage in the last few weeks, its all too believable.
I really do believe that something like this is feasible. Its just a matter of whether they are mad enough.

And as someone said earlier, with the USA tied up with two major shooting wars, you could throw in a forced "reconciliation" between China and Taiwan, coupled with a Chinese move into the Spratleys


and now ... really pushing things to the logical extreme...if Egypt were to fall to an Iranian fundamentalist government....

APG
A whole heap of posters have forgotten to take their medication over the last week:rolleyes:

Re "
BEagle and SAM, what are your views?"

I think Beagle doesn't like it and that the thread should go to Jetblast.:O

The really big question of course is whether a preemptive strike can be made against Iran. The difficulty there is that any attacking aircraft would have to transit Iraq or Syria. Now that the USA has withdrawn from Iraq, that route has become less certain.Syria would have been an option IF the Arab League & Turkey had managed to impose a UN no-fly zone over Syria. However Russia effectively vetoed that idea.
So any attacking aircraft may have to fight their way in, and back out again.

Over Jordan & Saudi is pretty direct - and neither is likely to object. :cool:

There is a big difference between believable, possible and the probability of it happening. Mind you I wonder how many major "issues" have happened in the past because the circumstances where thought unlikely, hence take advantage or complacency or attention else where.

I've been rather overdoing my 'medication' of late.

It's not always the expected that ends up happening. Look back in history and see how many events, wars or ops weren't seen coming. Look through JD's Christmas day scenario and count up how many of the events listed COULD happen (probably not all at once, although I'm not betting).

Back on the meds now, but still overdoing it. Hey it's Christmas!!!

M2

Between you, Jamesdevice, Glojo, Courtney ad one or two others,
I think you could keep quite a few Psychiatrists in work ;)

Have enjoyed the last few days watching some SAM type
humour:O:ok:

That's funny, my Boss recently said something like that too. I'll start to get my sensible hat back on. Didn't mean to upset the locals.

Opinion - Israel became convinced several months ago that the US administration has absolutely no intention of attacking Iran and would make every effort to stop Israel doing so. Hence their recent refusal to agree that they would keep the US informed of their plans.

The recent flurry of statements from Panetta and Dempsey et al are an attempt to convince them otherwise.

But that ship has already sailed........ :hmm:

US military 'ready to engage in a conflict with Iran'

So, maybe our mad rantings weren't so mad after all.

The key to that happening is in the opening paragraph.

...if President Barack Obama were to give the signal.

I sincerely hope that no one from the tabloid press (or worse still Mossad) is reading this thread otherwise they are quite likely to "go to press--"SCOOP/BANG"!!) and ruin everyone's Festive Season you know what they are lik
e
.
.........aaaah

And there's me thinking that you colonial types should be seen and not heard! :rolleyes::ok:

Why drink and drive when we can take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!

take pills and flyyyyyyy!!!
Stimulant Use in Extended Flight Operations

The use of amphetamines in U.S. Air ... [Aviat Space Environ Med. 1995] - PubMed - NCBI

"Of pilots who were surveyed, 65% used amphetamines during the deployment to the SWA AOR and/or during Operation Desert Storm."

Didn't realise it was that common