This is an interesting thread
Does anyone else have any thoughts for what action christmas and new year will bring?

I would think there's going to be a few blokes on this thread who are going to see action, the once or twice year type of action that the missus let's you have that is.:E

Fars News Agency :: Iran to Stage Naval Wargames Saturday

"Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said at a press conference on Thursday that the naval maneuvers dubbed Velayat 90 will start on Saturday and will cover an area stretching from the east of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden.

According to Sayyari, this is the first time that Iran's Navy carries out naval drills in such a vast area.

He added the exercises will manifest Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in the international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment among other objectives of the drills.

Rear Admiral Sayyari said that the newest missile systems and torpedoes will be employed in the maneuvers, adding that the most recent tactics used in subsurface battles will also be demonstrated in the maneuvers.

He also said that Iranian destroyers, missile-launching vessels, logistic vessels, drones and coastal missiles will also be tested."

So how well does that fit the "it all kicks off on xmas day" theory??

Don't forget the Russians entered the Med today

Which translates as:

A desparate attempt to demonstrate an massive military capability, which really isn't that good and to show off how much hardware they've managed to acquire and/or keep alive through dogged determination.

Peace and Friendship? I'm not really sensing that.

Moreover, it is designed to send a clear message to the west that Iran can shut down the Persian Gulf and turn the oil tap off whenever they like.

Peace and Friendship.

P.S. Are there some people missing here?

Yes, I believe there are a few involuntary absentees on this thread
Shame really as its the only topical discussion thread about actual military threats currently running

FARS reran that press release today, with slightly more detail
The key difference is they added:
"The exercises are bound to put Iranian warships close to vessels of the United States Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, which patrols some of the same waters, including the Strait of Hormuz."

Is that a threat? Or a heads up to the local population to expect trouble?
Remember FARS is effectively an agency of the Revolutionary Guards

An open source warning regarding the Iranian exercises:

REPORTS FROM MARITIME FORCES AND COMMERCIAL MARITIME INTERESTS INDICATE CONCERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DISRUPTION TO SHIPPING IN CONJUNCTION WITH FUTURE IRANIAN NAVAL EXERCISES. DURING PREVIOUS EXERCISES IRANIAN MARITIME FORCES CONDUCTED BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS OF MERCHANT SHIPS, INCLUDING THOSE FLAGGED TO EUROPEAN NATIONS. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT IRAN WILL ATTEMPT TO CONDUCT BOARDINGS AND INSPECTIONS DURING EXERCISES BETWEEN DECEMBER 2011 AND MARCH 2012. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS CLOSER TO IRANIAN TERRITORIAL WATERS.

From the US Office of Naval Intelligence ;


http://www.oni.navy.mil/Intelligence...avy_forces.pdf

A report on Iran's Naval forces.

Note, this is a very large pdf. I suggest that you only open this if you want a very detailed report of their capabilities, possible intentions etc.

Makes fascinating reading though.

So, following all the interesting speculation in this thread and the ones on the Next Falklands and the Russian Naval deployment, is a picture emerging? The US are out of Iran, not talking (supposedly) to Israel, Iran about to blockade and harass shipping, Syria attacked with a massive bomb, South American states adding to pressure in the South Atlantic, our forces still embroilled in the sandpit, etc.

Separate threads that all add up to a very complex picture. Our masters are wondering where to look most closely and what to prepare for. They're probably thanking their lucky stars that we just had such a huge boost to befence spending to ensure we have the resources to cope with whatever comes next.

Mr Hammond is talking about getting more for less. So expect less!:ouch:

FB:)

Nah .... they will be far more glad for having the threats of these potential conflicts drawn to their attention with all the open source, unclassified information/intelligence and non-military opinion found here on PPRuNe. Without such sterling work the government, PJHQ, MOD et al couldn't even consider making a decision - I hope you are all remembered when it comes to the next honours list;):E

I very much doubt the government will make a decision, until it's too late (if at all).

Diplomacy = Failed
Sanctions = Failed
Direct military action = Definitely

Obama wont be able to put this off until after the elections IMHO

As today is the nominated date of attack by SAM does anyone have an updated TOT?

as this is the thread which had much of the wild predictive stuff in, this post fits here
You may have thought SAMs predictions were off the wall, take a read of this Russian view.
2012 The Year We Entered the Tunnel - English pravda.ru

Blimey, well done. You managed to find an article on the Internet written by a lunatic: good effort. I'll see if I can dig out the one that detailed how we got captured UFOs from Lyneham to the underground city at Corsham via the secret tunnels. That's also about as relevant.

I can see why Tourist is so exasperated with this place..... :hmm:

Rudloe Manor the "focal point" for UFO reports | Nettleden.com

:8

Ministry of Defence | Freedom of Information | Publication Scheme | Search Publication Scheme | UFO Reports in the UK

.

BEagle

The conspiracy theorists obviously had a field day with that place,
all because it was the central location for collection of UFO sightings !:ugh:

They could be a bit more original.

Timing could prove to be interesting here. The Iranians are said to be "about a year" off from having a nuke up and running. November - (and more importantly, the two months between November and the possible inauguration of a new President) - are also "about a year" away. If Obama does prevaricate - (which, with his record to date, is quite a distinct possibility) - and if he were to lose the election**, the USA could find itself in the unfortunate situation of having to make some very hard decisions re Iran during the changeover of administrations - the equivalent of having to win a Moto GP race while you've still got your training wheels on.

I don't think any of this is lost on the Iranians.


**an outside chance, IMHO, not because Obama doesn't richly deserve to be rolled, but more because of the Republicans' inability to field a credible candidate to oppose him.