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NATO vs Russia

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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 09:54
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
https://www.politico.eu/article/trum...ear-nightmare/

Trump triggers Germany’s nuclear nightmare

German leaders fear confronting Putin’s menace without the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella.
The real problem with this is not the fact that Russia would attack Germany 'out of the Blue' with Nukes. The problem ist that should Russia invade the Baltics, the one sided Nuclear Threat may keep Germany from defending its Eastern Neighbours. So the real risk of the US retiring it's Nuclear Umbrella is for the Baltics and to some extent Poland. And the damage is already done by having this discussion alone. Should Trump win the Election I expect an invasion into one of the Baltics quickly afterwards.
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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 09:57
  #122 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Nuclear is the current deterrence concept. Germany even bought new F-35s and the US just modernized and upgraded the B61 to continue.
But these are only about 20 tactical Nukes. OK, you could wipe out Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg with that and with stretching one's luck also Moscow. But not the Rest of Russia.
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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 10:06
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Without the US nuke shield we might see Russia racing to conquer as much as possible before the West can set up some reaction.
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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 16:44
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Originally Posted by henra
But these are only about 20 tactical Nukes. OK, you could wipe out Kaliningrad and St. Petersburg with that and with stretching one's luck also Moscow. But not the Rest of Russia.
if you destroy "the rest of Russia" Europe isn't going to be a very healthy spot....................
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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 16:58
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Originally Posted by Less Hair
Without the US nuke shield we might see Russia racing to conquer as much as possible before the West can set up some reaction.
And when Europe starts to fight back and regain ground they may threaten to nuke said Countries. In which case all bar FR + UK might be strongly tempted to stop continuing fighting back lost territories. Super dangerous and stupid game. And needless.
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Old 23rd Feb 2024, 18:31
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About 800 megatons. That's a lot of fallout.
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 09:26
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 11:03
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What annoys me is that the Europeans have used the blanket of NATO in order to cut their own defence spending, and in a few cases, cosy up to Russia for cheap energy.

Now the foolishness of that strategy is laid bare, they’re calling for the Uk to introduce conscription and bail them out.

Ukraine is 1600 miles from the UK - I’d like to see Europeans defending Europe. There seems to be a lot of fighting age Eastern European males in the UK, whom I’d expect to return and fight before we start feeding our youth into the grinder.

And if the EU need a nuclear deterrent - Ł38b should cover it. If you want to be on a club you have to pay, if I recall correctly…,
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 11:20
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
MAD has been not quite the scenario for about a generation. They are just now waking up to this, apparently.
Well, what's new is that it will now be OSAD (One Sided Assured Destruction).
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 11:36
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Now the foolishness of that strategy is laid bare, they’re calling for the Uk to introduce conscription and bail them out.
???
I don't think conscription in UK is what European Defence most urgently needs. For the whole of Europe we simply need massive upstocking of Ammo and an additional 1000+ Warheads.
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 11:45
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And first stages that ignite as intended.
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 12:42
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Originally Posted by minigundiplomat
Now the foolishness of that strategy is laid bare, they’re calling for the Uk to introduce conscription and bail them out. Ukraine is 1600 miles from the UK - I’d like to see Europeans defending Europe. There seems to be a lot of fighting age Eastern European males in the UK, whom I’d expect to return and fight before we start feeding our youth into the grinder.
1. I have not heard anyone in the rest of Europe (or the USA) ask the UK to introduce conscription. I have heard the former head of the army suggest that our own defence failures mean that we would be forced to introduce conscription if required to meet our treaty obligation in a future (hypothetical) conflict.
2. Nobody has asked the UK (or any other European country) to send personnel to fight in Ukraine. We have been asked to consider our own strategic interests in: preserving the post cold war order; constraining Russian imperialism and preventing a wider conflict in Europe (which would almost certainly involve us whether or not we wanted it to). To this end, the UK has done a reasonable (but not exceptional job) of financing and supplying Ukrainian defences. Eastern Europe (as you might expect) is well ahead of us. Estonia, for example, has committed about 3 times more than us (as % of GDP).
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Old 24th Feb 2024, 12:52
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Originally Posted by henra
???
I don't think conscription in UK is what European Defence most urgently needs. For the whole of Europe we simply need massive upstocking of Ammo and an additional 1000+ Warheads.
It's worth noting that since 2022 Putin is brainwashing and militairizing Russia's next generation - those who were young teens in 2022 will shortly be of fighting age and, since 2022 have been exposed to a far greater barrage of propoganda and false history. The textbooks have been changed. Heroes are everywhere.

This is intentional - military awareness and skills are taught and viewed positively in schools - they will grow up to firmly believe Putin's lies as they will not be told anything else, believing they are fighting for their very existence and will hate the Free World and admire the heroes of the "SMO" until they are much, much older and wiser and can look back with regret.

As each year goes past, Russia's next fighting generation is becoming more psychologically prepared (brainwashed) to survive, fight, die and be grateful for it.

Now look at our next generation. Have we adequately prepared them against this threat? I would say no - we've only just discovered our peaceful worldview was grossly naive. How can we prepare them? Conscription is one way, but severe, and we are tarnished by Afghanistan.

I do however think we need to urgently change how military skills, mindset and people are valued and perceived by our very diverse society. I think our education system has a part to play in that, but exactly how will need to be thought through carefully.

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Old 25th Feb 2024, 07:07
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​​​​​​​Poland’s Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski hints that countries such as Poland could get nuclear weapons because of lack of aid for Ukraine.

He says the gridlock in the U.S. will have consequences for how its security guarantees are viewed by allies.
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 07:52
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Originally Posted by ORAC
He says the gridlock in the U.S. will have consequences for how its security guarantees are viewed by allies.
It's sad to see how Trust and Relationships built up over decades are destroyed within one or two Years of internal political skirmishes. The damage done to the Trustworthiness of the US by this cannot be overestimated. Close to irreparable. Will also be disastrous for building alliances against China. Who after this mess would put all bets on the US to bail him out should he support the US against China and get under pressure from them consequently. Absolutely f**king stoopid.
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 08:15
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Originally Posted by henra
It's sad to see how Trust and Relationships built up over decades are destroyed within one or two Years of internal political skirmishes. The damage done to the Trustworthiness of the US by this cannot be overestimated. Close to irreparable. Will also be disastrous for building alliances against China. Who after this mess would put all bets on the US to bail him out should he support the US against China and get under pressure from them consequently. Absolutely f**king stoopid.
The US has provided a nuclear umbrella that allowed, almost promoted the atrophy of euro military capabilities. I say if only euro leaders had acted upon the back room urging of past US Presidents, y’awl wouldn’t be as afraid of the situation you may find yourself in.
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 09:14
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If the US pulls support from Ukraine why does the UK still need US bases on British soil?
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 09:42
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Originally Posted by West Coast
The US has provided a nuclear umbrella that allowed, almost promoted the atrophy of euro military capabilities. I say if only euro leaders had acted upon the back room urging of past US Presidents, y’awl wouldn’t be as afraid of the situation you may find yourself in.
We assumed that our transatlantic alliance was about more than just bombs and bullets. We thought it was about shared values, a dedication to freedom and democracy and a rejection of totalitarian and brutalist regimes. If the US can no longer be relied upon to uphold and defend those values it is not a trustworthy ally. Is that where we are now?
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 10:36
  #139 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
The US has provided a nuclear umbrella that allowed, almost promoted the atrophy of euro military capabilities. I say if only euro leaders had acted upon the back room urging of past US Presidents, y’awl wouldn’t be as afraid of the situation you may find yourself in.
Wouldn't we? Why?
Would we really have 5x more Nukes than we currently have? The main concern is about asymmetry in Nukes. Conventionally filling up the Ammo depots will be sufficient to be not overly concerned. Nothing that can't be fixed in a few Years. But achieving our own European true MAD capability will be more complicated. And that is all that worries me.
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Old 25th Feb 2024, 11:35
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If Mr. Trump pulls out everybody will need his own nukes as life insurance against Russia.
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