Gaza Air War
The ballistic analysis carried out by CH4 was based on the missile following an unpowered and undisturbed flight from launch. The videos from various sources show the missile exploding in flight, presumably as the motor fails - the debris will then have fallen, if not directly downwards, in a variety of directions.
It should also be noted the same videos show the missile to be part of a salvo of 6 (the normal launcher load for R160 missiles) and all the others in the salvo are shown flying from SW to NE.
It should also be noted the same videos show the missile to be part of a salvo of 6 (the normal launcher load for R160 missiles) and all the others in the salvo are shown flying from SW to NE.
UK Intelligence is reported to be investigating the matter but so far no news reports are citing any determination made as a result of that investigation.
The PM cautioned against rushing to judgement.
The PM cautioned against rushing to judgement.
How people are viewing the evidence is heavily dependant on their initial prejudices (myself included), but one fact that can't be disputed is that a week on not a single bomb fragment that might pin this on the IDF has been produced (and let's not forget it's the Palestinians that control the ground). I think that's telling.
Alright....let's cut to the chase shall we?
Who were the "experts' and where is their Report of Investigation to be found?
What sources and methods did they employ.....what access to forensic evidence did they have?
Who were the "experts' and where is their Report of Investigation to be found?
What sources and methods did they employ.....what access to forensic evidence did they have?
The story is here
https://www.channel4.com/news/human-...ital-explosion
https://www.channel4.com/news/human-...ital-explosion
... and the Ramallah based NGO Al Haq have shared new information with Channel 4 News they say casts doubt on some aspects of Israel’s account.
Impartial source? check.
Unfortunately, this is the Court of Rumour, Speculation, Half-Truth-is-Enough-Truth, Social-Media, International Politicking and, above all, Fanatical Partisan Bias.
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I went to Twitter and watched the Channel 4 video there.
To describe the contents as detailed and convincing is a huge leap.
Even if you accept the projectile (whatever it was) arrived from any of the many directions shown in blue or even directly opposite of the suspected launch direction of the six rockets......that still does not rule out a malfunctioning rocket.
The sound analysis.....well as I am not a qualified expert I will note that with all the many factors that could distort the sounds due to the buildings and other noise sources at the time....I don't put much credence to that either.
The communications intercepts.....I will leave to the organization that did the intercepts and the analysis of those intercepts as they have the better evidence.
So....Channel 4 and its choice of "experts" leaves me still thinking it was a malfunctioning rocket.
A couple of things I have noticed in rocket malfunctions seen first hand.....and lots seen in YouTube videos in the past two days.....rockets can go wandering about during failures and if the propellent loads are not completely burned out there is usually a lot of fire involved where they do land if on dirt and not into water.
That translates into lots of thermal damage rather than blast or shrapnel damage and generally minor cratering as they do not always arrive nose on to the ground.
Compound that with the absence of a proper crater analysis and forensic investigation by those holding the ground where it happened and[ absent any compelling proof otherwise I am sticking to the IDF, French and American Intelligence Services version of events.
If and when that level of proof arrives I will happily change my mind on this but not before then.
To describe the contents as detailed and convincing is a huge leap.
Even if you accept the projectile (whatever it was) arrived from any of the many directions shown in blue or even directly opposite of the suspected launch direction of the six rockets......that still does not rule out a malfunctioning rocket.
The sound analysis.....well as I am not a qualified expert I will note that with all the many factors that could distort the sounds due to the buildings and other noise sources at the time....I don't put much credence to that either.
The communications intercepts.....I will leave to the organization that did the intercepts and the analysis of those intercepts as they have the better evidence.
So....Channel 4 and its choice of "experts" leaves me still thinking it was a malfunctioning rocket.
A couple of things I have noticed in rocket malfunctions seen first hand.....and lots seen in YouTube videos in the past two days.....rockets can go wandering about during failures and if the propellent loads are not completely burned out there is usually a lot of fire involved where they do land if on dirt and not into water.
That translates into lots of thermal damage rather than blast or shrapnel damage and generally minor cratering as they do not always arrive nose on to the ground.
Compound that with the absence of a proper crater analysis and forensic investigation by those holding the ground where it happened and[ absent any compelling proof otherwise I am sticking to the IDF, French and American Intelligence Services version of events.
If and when that level of proof arrives I will happily change my mind on this but not before then.
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Without serious, unbiased, investigators on the ground we'll never know. And the site has been tramped over by so many people now you'd never know what was original and what wasn't.
people will believe what they want - doesn't change the fact a lot of innocent people probably were killed.
people will believe what they want - doesn't change the fact a lot of innocent people probably were killed.
However, I strongly object to the quote above, Channel 4 presented the piece as part of the information war - go back and listen to the introduction again. The information was offered to them and they reported it as such, Channel 4 did not choose the "experts", nor did they insist it was a true. It was presented as part of the narrative about the event and demonstrated that there may be more than one possible interpretation of what happened, and that perhaps the explanations offered should not be taken at face value.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Israeli strikes were reported against the Aleppo and Damascus international airports overnight, for the second time since October 7th.
Flights have been transferred to Latakia airport according to the Syrian Arab News Agency.
Flights have been transferred to Latakia airport according to the Syrian Arab News Agency.
It's not rocket science (pardon the pun). The solar panels are likely facing south (Gaza being in the northern hemisphere). The debris thrown out from the hole in the ground gives the direction from which the projectile hit the ground which when married with the solar panels gives the direction in which it was travelling, which in turn leads you to the location from where it was fired.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
What do they know that we don’t know…
New announcement from the DOD this evening, in response to “recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region”, the US will deploy the Eisenhower CSG to the CENTCOM AOR, along with an additional THAAD ABM battery and PATRIOT SAM battalions.
Additionally, an “additional number of forces [have been placed] on prepare to deploy orders as part of prudent contingency planning”
https://www.defense.gov/News/Release...-increase-for/
Statement From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Steps to Increase Force Posture
New announcement from the DOD this evening, in response to “recent escalations by Iran and its proxy forces across the Middle East Region”, the US will deploy the Eisenhower CSG to the CENTCOM AOR, along with an additional THAAD ABM battery and PATRIOT SAM battalions.
Additionally, an “additional number of forces [have been placed] on prepare to deploy orders as part of prudent contingency planning”
https://www.defense.gov/News/Release...-increase-for/
Statement From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on Steps to Increase Force Posture
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Clock ticking down.
The Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar held a Briefing today with Squadron Commanders and other Military Officers on the “Eve of the Historic Ground Invasion of the Gaza Strip” in which he stated:
“I would not want to Exchange with any Enemy, and meet a Brigade or Division of the Israel Defense Forces…We will embrace every Fighter on the Ground with an Aerial Umbrella, we will come with all the Power.
“Every Terrorist will meet us before he meets the Ground Forces. The Combat Teams in the Brigades are Determined, Strong, our Comrades in Arms with whom we have Trained for Years for this Moment.”
The Chief of General Staff for the Israeli Defense Force, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi met with Commanders of Golani Brigade today in Southern Lebanon near the Border with the Gaza Strip where he stated:
“We will soon enter the Gaza Strip. We will embark on an Operational and Professional Mission to Target any Hamas Operatives and Infrastructure, all while keeping in our Hearts the Memories of the Events from Two Weeks Ago…Gaza will present a Complex and Densely Populated Environment, and the Enemy is Actively Preparing. Rest assured, we are Equally Prepared.”
The Commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar held a Briefing today with Squadron Commanders and other Military Officers on the “Eve of the Historic Ground Invasion of the Gaza Strip” in which he stated:
“I would not want to Exchange with any Enemy, and meet a Brigade or Division of the Israel Defense Forces…We will embrace every Fighter on the Ground with an Aerial Umbrella, we will come with all the Power.
“Every Terrorist will meet us before he meets the Ground Forces. The Combat Teams in the Brigades are Determined, Strong, our Comrades in Arms with whom we have Trained for Years for this Moment.”
The Chief of General Staff for the Israeli Defense Force, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi met with Commanders of Golani Brigade today in Southern Lebanon near the Border with the Gaza Strip where he stated:
“We will soon enter the Gaza Strip. We will embark on an Operational and Professional Mission to Target any Hamas Operatives and Infrastructure, all while keeping in our Hearts the Memories of the Events from Two Weeks Ago…Gaza will present a Complex and Densely Populated Environment, and the Enemy is Actively Preparing. Rest assured, we are Equally Prepared.”
Last edited by ORAC; 22nd Oct 2023 at 08:52.
Thread Starter
Drones
Has there been much in the way of drone activity coming out of Gaza? I assume that Hamas will have all the latest toys such as those that have been used so extensively in Ukraine. Do Israel have such an effective anti-drone network as to render them ineffective when they attempt to cross the border or do Hamas just not have any?
It will be interesting to see how this situation manifests once the ground offensive starts in earnest. The Russians seem to have struggled with the drone threat so I wonder how the IDF will manage.
BV
It will be interesting to see how this situation manifests once the ground offensive starts in earnest. The Russians seem to have struggled with the drone threat so I wonder how the IDF will manage.
BV
Has there been much in the way of drone activity coming out of Gaza? I assume that Hamas will have all the latest toys such as those that have been used so extensively in Ukraine. Do Israel have such an effective anti-drone network as to render them ineffective when they attempt to cross the border or do Hamas just not have any?
It will be interesting to see how this situation manifests once the ground offensive starts in earnest. The Russians seem to have struggled with the drone threat so I wonder how the IDF will manage.
BV
It will be interesting to see how this situation manifests once the ground offensive starts in earnest. The Russians seem to have struggled with the drone threat so I wonder how the IDF will manage.
BV
Then there was similar footage of the attack on the Israeli MBT.
Not seen anything since though.
A ground offensive into a dense urban environment is not going to be easy.
I am sure that when the US advisors speak with their Israeli counterparts they will talk of the experience gained in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is especially true in the Gaza environment as the true enemy is going to be very hard, if not impossible, to locate and even identify. I think that Hamas leadership has skipped town days, if not weeks, ago leaving fanatical cannon-fodder behind to become martyrs for the cause.
The government is under extreme pressure to “do something” but is a ground offensive the correct “something”?
My theory is that Hamas, caring not one bit for the Palestinian population, set out with the express intention of forcing Israel into a ground attack on the theory that the inevitable large civilian casualties will cause massive worldwide condemnation of Israel, even amongst their supporters.
The attack will be used by nations and terrorist groups in the region as justification to attack Israel at home and Jewish people worldwide.
Casualties in the Israeli forces will also be demoralizing to the Israeli population.
How they will prevent this from descending into an “Operation Quagmire” is another problem.
I have no answer to the question “So Albatross, If you are so damned smart, what is your brilliant solution!”
I am sure that when the US advisors speak with their Israeli counterparts they will talk of the experience gained in Iraq and Afghanistan.
This is especially true in the Gaza environment as the true enemy is going to be very hard, if not impossible, to locate and even identify. I think that Hamas leadership has skipped town days, if not weeks, ago leaving fanatical cannon-fodder behind to become martyrs for the cause.
The government is under extreme pressure to “do something” but is a ground offensive the correct “something”?
My theory is that Hamas, caring not one bit for the Palestinian population, set out with the express intention of forcing Israel into a ground attack on the theory that the inevitable large civilian casualties will cause massive worldwide condemnation of Israel, even amongst their supporters.
The attack will be used by nations and terrorist groups in the region as justification to attack Israel at home and Jewish people worldwide.
Casualties in the Israeli forces will also be demoralizing to the Israeli population.
How they will prevent this from descending into an “Operation Quagmire” is another problem.
I have no answer to the question “So Albatross, If you are so damned smart, what is your brilliant solution!”