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Old 21st Oct 2023, 16:48
  #229 (permalink)  
SASless
 
Join Date: May 2002
Location: Downeast
Age: 75
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I went to Twitter and watched the Channel 4 video there.

To describe the contents as detailed and convincing is a huge leap.

Even if you accept the projectile (whatever it was) arrived from any of the many directions shown in blue or even directly opposite of the suspected launch direction of the six rockets......that still does not rule out a malfunctioning rocket.

The sound analysis.....well as I am not a qualified expert I will note that with all the many factors that could distort the sounds due to the buildings and other noise sources at the time....I don't put much credence to that either.

The communications intercepts.....I will leave to the organization that did the intercepts and the analysis of those intercepts as they have the better evidence.

So....Channel 4 and its choice of "experts" leaves me still thinking it was a malfunctioning rocket.

A couple of things I have noticed in rocket malfunctions seen first hand.....and lots seen in YouTube videos in the past two days.....rockets can go wandering about during failures and if the propellent loads are not completely burned out there is usually a lot of fire involved where they do land if on dirt and not into water.

That translates into lots of thermal damage rather than blast or shrapnel damage and generally minor cratering as they do not always arrive nose on to the ground.

Compound that with the absence of a proper crater analysis and forensic investigation by those holding the ground where it happened and[​​​​ absent any compelling proof otherwise I am sticking to the IDF, French and American Intelligence Services version of events.

If and when that level of proof arrives I will happily change my mind on this but not before then.
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