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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 14th September 2024 | 06:01
  #13241 (permalink)  
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From: Outer ring of HEL
An Ukrainian group placed an AK on a drone. A second group raised with a RPG7 equipped drone. Now a third group ups with a RPG22.
What next, a Hellfire?


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Old 14th September 2024 | 07:28
  #13242 (permalink)  
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Looks like the US blinked first - if so, the war has got a lot further to go.
Biden is incapable and Trump will pull support.
The Ukrainians had better get used to standing on their own, because I fear European support will wane without decisive US leadership - the lack of which has got us all into this mess.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-storm-shadow/

May be behind a paywall - so hopefully this helps -


Sir Keir Starmer was set to leave Washington on Friday night without any announcement on allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia.

The Prime Minister held talks with Joe Biden in the White House to discuss pleas from Volodymyr Zelensky to let the country use the Storm Shadow missiles.

But John Kirby, a spokesman for the US national security council, said there would be no announcement on long-range missiles after the meeting. He did not rule out one at a later date.

Foreign Office sources had briefed against expecting the green light at the end of Starmer’s visit, but it will come as a disappointment to leave without a decision.

After the meeting, Sir Keir said the pair had come to a “strong position” but suggested a final decision on Storm Shadow had been deferred to the UN General Assembly at the end of the month.

“Today was about having a chance to talk not just about a particular step or tactic, but the strategy in relation to Ukraine,” he said.

“It’s a really important occasion for us to have this chance to discuss with our allies.

“We get another chance a week after next week in UNGA and we’ll take that as well.”

He added: “It was a really good invitation from the President, we’ve had a very productive meeting and we’ve come to a strong position. I’m very pleased that we’ve had these discussions.”

On Thursday, Vladimir Putin said permitting Western-made missiles to strike Russia would mean Nato was engaged in “war” with Russia.

Mr Biden is reportedly holding back on supplying US-made ATACMS missiles, the country’s equivalent to the Storm Shadow, for fear of escalating the war.

But he is understood to be willing to approve the use of US intelligence and targeting systems to accompany the Storm Shadow, which is jointly produced by Britain, France and Italy.



A Downing Street spokesperson said Sir Keir and Mr Biden “agreed that now was the time for a more detailed discussion focused on immediate co-operation as well as long-term strategy over the next few months”.

They added: “Both leaders agreed on the importance of sustaining support to Ukraine in all aspects, including military, economic and diplomatic, for as long as it takes for Russia to withdraw.”

Earlier in the week the president said he was “working on” Kyiv’s demand to use long-range missiles.

In response to a question before Friday’s meeting asking how soon he was prepared to let Ukraine fire missiles deeper into Russia, the president said: “We’re going to discuss that now.”

Mr Kirby suggested Putin’s comments would not have delayed any announcement, saying they were “not something we haven’t heard before”.

But he added: “There is no change to our view on the provision of long-range strike capabilities for Ukraine to use inside Russia ... for all the reasons that we said before.

“I wouldn’t be looking for an announcement today on the long-range strike capabilities inside Russia. I can’t speak for the British and the French.”



Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said on Friday that Putin’s message on his “red line” was unambiguous, adding: “We have no doubt that this statement has reached its recipients.”

Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s UN ambassador, warned that letting Ukraine use long-range weapons would plunge Nato into “direct war with... a nuclear power”.

John Bolton, a former national security adviser to Donald Trump, said he was confident Mr Biden would agree to lift restrictions on Ukraine firing Storm Shadows into Russia, if not the US-made ATACMS.

“It would be extremely unusual to invite a British prime minister to the White House to say no to him. If the answer was no, that would have been delivered some other way,” he told The Telegraph.

He said the move, if it happened, was “essential” but “would have been better two-and-a-half years ago”.

Boris Johnson, the former prime minister, piled pressure on the UK and US to allow the use of the missiles.

Speaking after a meeting with Mr Zelensky in Kyiv, he said it was “vital” that the West authorised the use of long-range missiles so Ukraine can “defend itself properly by stopping the appalling Russian attacks with glide bombs and now Iranian missiles”.

“It is obvious that they should be able to use Storm Shadow and ATACMS as fast as possible against targets in Russia itself,” he said. “Every day that goes by means more pointless and tragic loss of Ukrainian lives.”



Grant Shapps, the former defence secretary, said the Biden-Starmer meeting “must deliver one outcome – Ukraine must be able to strike with Storm Shadows inside Russia if Russia continues to launch attacks on Ukraine from these locations”.

He added: “This is a defining moment for supporting democracy. No more words – it’s time for the West to take real action.”

Ben Wallace, another former defence secretary, told The Telegraph long-range missiles would allow Ukraine to “layer its defence” to cover Russian attacks between 30 km and 300 km from the front line.

“It is a mystery to me why countries that say they want Ukraine to win, such as Germany and America, often end up in this tug of war for capabilities,” he said. “We all know where this will end, and it’s best just to get on with it.

“Delay always benefits Russia. If we are serious about Ukraine we must make sure we remove from Russia’s grasp every factor that helps Putin now.”



In a statement on X, formerly Twitter, Mr Zelensky said after meeting with David Lammy, the Foreign Secretary, and Antony Blinken, his US counterpart, earlier this week that “there should be no unanswered questions about why Ukraine needs sufficient long-range capabilities.

“When we ask for these systems, we repeatedly hear ‘we are working on it’,” he wrote. “I am grateful to those who made the commitments and are fulfilling them, but we are still far from fully implementing what has been agreed.

“It’s difficult to repeatedly hear ‘we are working on this’, while Putin continues to burn down our cities and villages.”

Earlier this week, Mr Lammy and Mr Blinken announced further financial support for Ukraine, including a £600 million package from the UK and $717 million (£550 million) from the US to meet immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 08:47
  #13243 (permalink)  
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We have heard many US generals (retired often), intelligence officers and other ex officials, now able to speak and all have urged the release of UKR from this straightjacket and most lay the blame for Putrid's adventures on western weakness, so we are not alone in being frustrated. I am at a loss to understand this now unless US elections are having an inordinate effect on the lack of backbone. Putrid will now feel even stronger.
The only hope is that they are not saying anything but have gven them the nudge, nudge, wink, wink but I am not counting on it.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 09:05
  #13244 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
Looks like the US blinked first - if so, the war has got a lot further to go.
Biden is incapable and Trump will pull support.
The indecisiveness surely hurts but what's really damaging is the prospect of the US potentially totally withdrawing (again hinted at by the entourage of the other candidate), if a certain orange person were to enter the throne again. That's what's keeping Vlad's hopes up.
With the red lines it is a delicate thing. Chances that the said would happen are low but consequences if the unlikely were to happen extremely high impact. One of the critical (and somewhat less unlikely) scenarios being a 'Grey zone' Nuke by Russia. (I consider a direct Nuke on a NATO Country close to impossible -at least with the current US Admin). If NATO as a consequence wipes out the Russian Army conventionally, what will Russia do as a reaction? Sit on their hands and wait to get wiped out? Unlikely. Escalation circle almost impossible to prevent.
And that is why I do understand to some extent a certain reluctance to crossing red lines. On the other hand it strengthens Putin for sure. Which is absolutely undesirable and sends disastrous messages. In any case I don't envy those who have to make those decisions.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 09:37
  #13245 (permalink)  
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Perhaps for once we should 'draw a 'line in the sand' and tell Putin that if one more ballistic missile lands on Ukranian soil then we will give clearance? But we have politicians, not leaders.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 10:43
  #13246 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
As for reneging on the use of himars and ATACMS, why announce they were planning to allow their use in the first place, , simply give them the go ahead in private, then deny giving them authorisation, that way the US can deny they agreed to it and Russia has no comeback.

Meanwhile Russias thrust in Kursk appear to be about to be cut odff by Ukrainians trapping 1000 troops inside the pocket.

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Old 14th September 2024 | 11:03
  #13247 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
Looks like the US blinked first - if so, the war has got a lot further to go.
Biden is incapable and Trump will pull support.
The Ukrainians had better get used to standing on their own, because I fear European support will wane without decisive US leadership - the lack of which has got us all into this mess.
Yep.
Putrid must be laughing his head off......
And Xi will be smiling as well as he eyes up Taiwan, most of the SCS shoals and even Okinawa....

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Old 14th September 2024 | 11:23
  #13248 (permalink)  
 
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From: Cherniy Ostrov
Originally Posted by WideScreen
Not sure, if he effectively used the word "war" himself. For the subtitles, I have the impression, this is an AI type processing (and horrible to read anyway, why not delay the audio/video for 3-4 seconds and give the subtitle AI the time to process ??????).
He said "direct participation in war in Ukraine" - but whoever he is, he is not Vladimir Putin. Where's the 10 meter table for a start.

IM
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Old 14th September 2024 | 11:37
  #13249 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
I am not sure what this Russian was doing, but it’s safe to say he won’t do it again.

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Old 14th September 2024 | 12:25
  #13250 (permalink)  
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This is quite interesting, and shows how desperate things must be. No water purification or bulk distribution on land because of interdiction by Ukraine, so they are resorting to free dropping micro amounts using drones. Incredibly inefficient but probably better than nothing….

VideoUkrainian FPV drones attack every Russian vehicle and every visible soldier within their range, making forward resupply a desperate business.
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Bottles of water are encased in polyurethane foam to survive dropping by drones to Russian forward positions.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 12:32
  #13251 (permalink)  
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https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/sons...ce-frontlines/

Sons of elites safe while ordinary Russians face frontlines

A stark division is growing within Russia’s military ranks, where ordinary soldiers face the deadly frontlines, while the privileged few secure safer postings. This glaring disparity has led to growing discontent, including among elite military units, who are increasingly feeling abandoned by their leadership in the protracted war in Ukraine.

Recent intelligence reports from the UK Ministry of Defence have shed light on the formation of a specialised military unit, “Bars Kaskad.” This unit recruits personnel from affluent, influential Russian families and places them in operations far from the frontlines, in contrast to the grim conditions faced by everyday Russian soldiers.

Tensions escalated further when soldiers from Russia’s prestigious 155th Naval Infantry Brigade went public with their grievances, accusing their commanders of treating them as mere “cannon fodder” in Ukraine. Their open letter, which was widely circulated on the social media platform Telegram, underscored the heavy losses the unit had suffered during a disastrous offensive near Donetsk.

The letter explicitly stated, “Due to the ‘carefully’ planned offensive by the ‘great commanders’, we lost about 300 people and 50 percent of our vehicles.” The blunt criticism of the leadership spread quickly across Russia, prompting the military to publicly address these concerns, a rare occurrence since the conflict’s onset.

In sharp contrast, the Bars Kaskad unit serves as a refuge for Russia’s elite. Founded by Dmitry Sablin, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma’s Defence Committee, the unit boasts members from the pro-Putin United Russia Party and sons of high-ranking Kremlin officials. Their tasks, mostly drone operations, are conducted far from the dangers of the battlefield.

Bars Kaskad, operational since October 2022, has drawn heavy criticism, with many accusing it of being a means for the elite to sidestep compulsory military service. Analysts argue that it allows members to maintain a façade of patriotism while keeping out of harm’s way, bolstering their public image and future political ambitions without taking real risks.

Ordinary Russian soldiers, meanwhile, endure the full brutality of the conflict. The stark contrast between their harsh experiences and the relative safety of the elite has become a major source of frustration within the ranks.

Military expert Ruslan Leviev explains, “Bars Kaskad is a unit created for celebrities and officials who want to show they’ve gone to war. But in reality, they’re sitting safely at the rear, drinking tea, collecting medals, and using their ‘service’ to advance their political careers.”
One high-profile example is Alexei Blinovsky, husband of Russian influencer Yelena Blinovskaya. He reportedly joined Bars Kaskad to avoid legal issues stemming from her tax evasion case, ensuring her release while keeping himself out of danger.

The use of ordinary Russians as expendable “cannon fodder” while the elite remain shielded from the risks of war underscores the deep inequalities in Russian society. As everyday soldiers face the deadly realities of the battlefield, the elite’s ability to evade danger raises questions about how long this system can last before resentment turns into open rebellion.



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Old 14th September 2024 | 13:23
  #13252 (permalink)  
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Never stop the enemy when he is making a mistake….

Russian bloggers pouring out revelations about the constant sending of unwanted Russian soldiers, regardless of their specialisation, to assault squads. Even full-time propagandists like Sasha Kots cite many examples.

Although, there is no point in this whining. Nothing will change. Russians are truly amazing people.



There are more details to this story.

Goodwin and his mate Ernest (who also died in the meat assault) were part of the 87th Regiment and led a team of specialists who handled drones and combat tasks. Despite their effectiveness, a new commander disbanded the team and confiscated their equipment, restricting aid channels. Ernest

and some team members re-formed into a reconnaissance group, identifying key targets before their drone was shot down by friendly fire. After acquiring new equipment, they were tasked with an assault on Lesovka, but by September 13, their group had gone missing.




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Old 14th September 2024 | 13:28
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From: Frensham
"GUR publishes the full video of the raid on "Crimea-2" drilling rig in the Black Sea on September 11."


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Old 14th September 2024 | 15:19
  #13254 (permalink)  
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You will recall the earlier tweet from a Russian professional commenting on the total chaos of local forces and how dangerous they would to themselves and their own forces. In the Kursk region, the local security forces attacked retreating conscripts and a unit of the FSB, mistaking them for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The number of losses is unknown, but the number is several dozen.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 15:56
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Video included. A very curious incident occurred for Russians in the Pokrovsk direction.

We've all heard when Russians send specialists like UAV operators and tankmen into meat assaults. In this case, one operator recorded a video before his death...

In the video, he accused his regiment commander "Zloy" of disbanding their long-range UAV unit, drug trafficking, and failing to cause damage to the Ukrainian Armed Forces following intelligence data provided by the same UAV operators.

The video states that it will be published in the event of death. The man, called "Goodwin", was killed in an assault alongside his colleagues without supplies, maps, or any equipment. He warned about this in text messages to other Russians, and asked for help with transfer.

The transfer never happened.

There's a second video, which I didn't translate as it doesn't bring much new, with Goodwin and his colleague "Ernest" who was also sent to sure death. Aside from previous accusations, they said humanitarian aid is also being stolen.

Thus, at the very spearhead of the Russian offensive in Donbas, we have corruption, theft, nepotism, sending specialists to certain death, accusations of the senior leadership of the "DPR" of embezzlement of property. All that Russia is well known for.

There is now apparently "some" movement now that this footage and accusations surfaced, but we know that nothing is going to come out of it and the Russian army will stay Russian.
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https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...994945728.html
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Old 14th September 2024 | 16:25
  #13256 (permalink)  
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We mustn’t be too quick to jump to conclusions. Just because there has been no announcement about freeing UKR to use longer range weapons to strike inside Russia doesn’t mean that an agreement hasn’t been struck. Let’s wait and see…
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Old 14th September 2024 | 16:33
  #13257 (permalink)  
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Military correspondent Saponkov reports on a mass shutdown of Starlinks in use by Russians. He says that Starlinks cannot be used for more than 90 days outside the country of registration. Apparently, most are activated in Europe.

"Since the morning, there has been a mass blocking of Starlinks. Dishes registered in the EU are flying off. According to Starlink rules, you cannot use a dish outside the country of registration for more than 90 days. There is also information that dishes with activation in Germany are being massively disconnected."




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Old 14th September 2024 | 17:09
  #13258 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/09/...-defend-kursk/

Frontline report: Russian forces finally sacrifice Pokrovsk offensive to defend Kursk

Ukraine has managed to alter battlefield dynamics with its Kursk incursion in just six weeks: Russia redeploys forces from crucial Pokrovsk offensive

Today there are a lot of important updates from the Kursk direction.

Here, in a critical turning point, Ukrainian forces finally managed to escalate the pressure in the Kursk Oblast to such an extent that the Russians were forced to sacrifice their Pokrovsk offensive and redeploy their most critical reserves to the north.

By disrupting the biggest Russian offensive operation, on which Russians staked everything, the Ukrainian Kursk offensive proved to be a strategic success…..
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Old 14th September 2024 | 17:51
  #13259 (permalink)  
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From: Over the rainbow
Originally Posted by Canary Boy
We mustn’t be too quick to jump to conclusions. Just because there has been no announcement about freeing UKR to use longer range weapons to strike inside Russia doesn’t mean that an agreement hasn’t been struck. Let’s wait and see…
To be honest I cannot see the use not granted. If we say `no` that just lets Putin know we will back down and that's bad in my opinion.
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Old 14th September 2024 | 18:32
  #13260 (permalink)  
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The US spokesman said, “I cannot speak for France or Britain…”
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