The IL-76 shoot down continues to have repercussions, given Vlads wanton disregard for the lives of POWs. The problem remains Vlad has told the world that 60 POWs were on board. So here is the issue. The video of the loading of the "POW's" that has been put out by Russian media is not at Belgorod. There are 2 main ramps at Belgorod, and none of them look like the one in the video. There is no way to park a YAK-40, AN-72 and an IL-76 in Belgorod on the ramp that looks anything like the video, therefore, the loading is somewhere else.

If there are POWs on the plane, then the plane would be inbound to Belgorod.

The position of the crash is well established, it is close to the location on wikipedia, it hits the trees on the west side of the open field. The drone images show the destruction of the trees as the aircraft has descended the final few meters to the ground, and trees have been knocked down in the direction of the ground scar. The ground impact direction is approximately 050 True. The track from Belgorod Airport to the crash site is 061True.

The distance from the mid point of the runway at Belgorod is ~29.2nm, brg 061T to the smoke bearing intercept with the track from Belgorod, the intercept is at 50°52'34"N 37°17'02"E, and is around a minimum of 5900-5955m from the second camera position.

Between the start of the video and the image of the smoke, the camera is moved to the north from immediately outside of the building entrance to the east of the roadway, the video is on the walkway beside the building, and they move toward the triangular sign, around 15 meters north of the first position. A fair pace.

There is a lot of uncertainty on the distance to the smoke puff, however, the azimuth is pretty clear, and the video that had the impact at ~t=6s had a sharp crack sound at t=17s following which the car alarms sound. The distance to the ground impact is well known, (BTW, it is not 7km), it is around 4800m, to the centerlne of the ground scar.

Temperature at Belgorod was reported to have a high of -6 and a low of -9. It is during daylight, but also around 30nm+ away from the reporting station at UUOB.

Assuming -6C temp, a= 327m/sec, then :

the track is almost directly in line with outbound from UUOB to the ENE, (~060T) Distance from the missile smoke visual to the tree impact os 2.32nm.

The main point on this is the aircraft was certainly not going into Belgorod, it was outbound, and therefore cannot have had "POW's" on board. The timing errors in this rough "back of envelope" estimate using time offsets probably put the location marked below to the SW of the actual position of the strike, but in all cases, the plane is flying ENE, away from Belgorod. This analysis gives a very high speed impact, higher than I would expect to have occurred, but it is in the right rough order of merit.

If Russia turns up Ukrainian bodies purporting to be from the plane, they were not on this plane, and that would be a deliberate premeditated war crime, which is mainly just another day in Russia ending in Y.

The solution of the positions is relatively simple it is the same as the old "Julie" acoustics technique but far easier, we have an exact position of the impact point, and then we have a transient from the missile strike, although this being Russia, that could have been any old Lada blowing up too.

I am not fazed about the accuracy of this, am more interested in the track proof to make a point before Vlad "finds" new dead bodies of Ukrainians conveniently.

As far as bodies go, this aircraft hit at extremely high speed, well above MMO, there would be few if any bodies in one piece at all. In The Hague, Russia would need to show why they were outbound with the POWs not inbound. Showing up with pristine bodies would be a glaring bogus case, and any Ukrainians would appear to be simply a deliberate desecration or murder/desecration, which is quite on the cards, it is after all Russia and their sociopathic dictator.

A well reasoned explanation, fdr, even I can follow it. Thank you.

I wish that it wasn't necessary. I have no faith that Putin won't murder Ukrainians just to hide his embarrassment at being caught in a lie, which, like one or two other politicians we seem top be blessed with, only when they are awake. I have no confidence in Putin not undertaking the deliberate murder of 60 people just to CYA his delicate behind.

On the timing, that is going to be within +/-325m in the radius, and the location could be about up to 325m along the arc to the NE (clockwise) of the position I have calculated. The distance and time from the detonation to impact gives a possible but extremely high speed, so position along the arc clockwise would bring that down some, but it is still an extremely high speed impact. If someone has a series of frames of the last seconds, the angular change will give a fair speed value, it will be eye watering. No body came out of that in a tidy manner.

[the horizontal component of their speed is around 210 m.sec, vertical assuming they were only at, say, 10,000', 3000m (WAG), is 146m/sec, and the TAS averages 255m/sec, or about M0.785. Thats about 510KCAS average.. it's a lot of bang at the bottom].

It's Ulitsa Aerodromnaya, Shchyolkovo, Moscow

https://www.google.com/maps/@55.8839...!1e3?entry=ttu

Interesting super hackhttps://www.bleepingcomputer.com/new...search-center/

Russian military reporter describes an interesting FPV tactic: Ukrainians place drones on the road, watch the cameras, and once they notice an incoming vehicle, they raise the drone and let the car drive into it.…
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These Shahed-136/131 have been apparently downed mostly intact. Of it would be only one then it could be a malfunction but three separate events indicate the usage of electronic warfare. Especially the first pictures shows a trail behind the drone. It landed as softly as possible.

Source of pics: t.me/operativnoZSU








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That assumes that the Il-76 had no warning. My understanding is that this aircraft type is equipped with RWR. If (as been theorised) this was a Ukranian SAM ambush, then, even against a patriot, the flight crew should still have seen the search radar some minutes before being hit. Given that, I'm not sure that the direction of flight can tell you with confidence where the aircraft was flying from.

Especially as the Russian side say the 'other' plane turned back. The case for the direction of flight has been made quite forcefully both ways by several people so far.

There is a road a little ways away that lil' tactic would work well at....

That is a pretty neat tactic to apply to remove the rubbish from Donbas, Zaporizhzhia & Crimea.

Transparent blades anyone? 2-tone paint...

Ukrainians are altering the manner of conducting self defence faster than the Russians can type up new Idiots Guides to Terminate your own Troops.


I just can't see how the clip can give a definite direction of flight prior to the IL-76 being hit. When hit it could have turned back on itself by the time the filming started.

That is indeed a consideration, however, why would a patriot be constrained to its own cells radar, or need to be actively transmitting itself early enough to give a target a chance? We have seen aircraft that have a fair reason to have RHAWS as well as ECM, and certainly have ESM be destroyed or severely disabled. Before 24 Feb 22, an expectation of competency for the Russian air forces would have been a reasonable expectation. Nothing since that date suggests they are competent at any level beyond throwing poorly trained, led, armed and fed troops against an agile defender. (Wonder what the exchange rate s for SRO-I Odd Rods vs vodka nowadays). It is possible the aircraft was alerted to the inbound missile, and did a 180, it would take less than 30 seconds. If they had any warning to that extent, then the Ukrainians need to keep working on their tactics, as good as they are. Do the IL-76's bother today with flares or chaff or has that been sold off for vodka?
money would be on the crew passing away in a relaxed state, a fitting response to Malaysian MH-17.

Diving 180 even?

By no means an expert, but would imagine that it would be very difficult/ impossible for a TVM missile to use a separate transmitter in the terminal guidance phase. We aren't talking about the target 'having a chance'; just having enough warning to start evasion maneuverers.

It would explain why Putin seems particularly miffed this time, at losing another good aircraft plus crew.

He would naturally feel a strong urge to make the whole of Ukraine hurt too, by talking up wasted Ukrainian POW lives, whether there were actually any prisoners on the aircraft or not.

Greece has approved the transfer of AD weapons systems to Ukraine, - Kathimerini

It is not specified which systems, but Greece has in service ZU-23-2 anti-aircraft guns and ammunition plus Tor, Osa and S-300 missile systems.

The newspaper notes that the decision to transfer the weapons was made after the US approved the sale of F-35 fighter jets worth $8.6 billion to Athens.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-EXPLODES.html

'The worms will have no ammo to shoot tonight': Dramatic moment Russian ammunition depot in Kremlin-occupied southern Ukraine EXPLODES in terrifying fireball blast

Footage shared on Telegram shows a building hidden behind trees which suddenly burst into a terrifying fireball, lighting up the area.

The local who filmed the explosion at the alleged ammunition depot in Krynky, in the occupied Kherson region of Ukraine, said: 'Worms will have no ammo to shoot tonight.'

He said the warehouse was 'burning nicely' yesterday after allegedly being hit by a Ukrainian drone.

This comes as Russia carried out overnight drone and missile attacks on four regions of Ukraine, wounding at least three people, the Ukrainian armed forces said today.

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Footage shared on social media shows a building hidden behind trees which suddenly burst into a terrifying fireball (pictured above) lighting up the area

Russias finest..

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A Russian tank driver films their assault right up until abandoning their knocked out tank and leaves his phone behind.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1751329362798915618


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If you are going to get hit by a drone make sure you haven’t got a grenade in each hand, he was just about to throw them.

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