Originally Posted by
Recc
That assumes that the Il-76 had no warning. My understanding is that this aircraft type is equipped with RWR. If (as been theorised) this was a Ukranian SAM ambush, then, even against a patriot, the flight crew should still have seen the search radar some minutes before being hit. Given that, I'm not sure that the direction of flight can tell you with confidence where the aircraft was flying from.
Originally Posted by
jolihokistix
Especially as the Russian side say the 'other' plane turned back. The case for the direction of flight has been made quite forcefully both ways by several people so far.
That is indeed a consideration, however, why would a patriot be constrained to its own cells radar, or need to be actively transmitting itself early enough to give a target a chance? We have seen aircraft that have a fair reason to have RHAWS as well as ECM, and certainly have ESM be destroyed or severely disabled. Before 24 Feb 22, an expectation of competency for the Russian air forces would have been a reasonable expectation. Nothing since that date suggests they are competent at any level beyond throwing poorly trained, led, armed and fed troops against an agile defender. (Wonder what the exchange rate s for SRO-I Odd Rods vs vodka nowadays). It is possible the aircraft was alerted to the inbound missile, and did a 180, it would take less than 30 seconds. If they had any warning to that extent, then the Ukrainians need to keep working on their tactics, as good as they are. Do the IL-76's bother today with flares or chaff or has that been sold off for vodka?
money would be on the crew passing away in a relaxed state, a fitting response to Malaysian MH-17.