Ukraine War Thread Part 2
The Ukrainians fully understand that Putin's aim is their extermination followed by repopulation by Ruzzians. The West has given them the option of standing up to Putin, something that did not happen when the Bolsheviks rolled into present day Ukraine, previously divided between Austria-Hungary and Russia.
Like WWI, static warfare could continue for some years.
Like WWI, static warfare could continue for some years.
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I doubt even if defeated, would they capitulate? there is enough weaponry in country for them to carry on a partisan war for years, and Russia, one would doubt, have the military manpower to leave a credible sized force in Ukraine to hold it securely, what would you need, 500,000? More?
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The talk of forced relocation of Ukrainians to the likes of Siberia would create its own problems too.
This war, regardless of everything else, is a Russian war of old men, men who remember a time of ultimate power and the USSR.
But even amongst them the Oligarchs whose wealth is derived from Russia “fled” in droves to the west to enjoy the freedom and lifestyle Russia could never offer them, they must be wanting a return to the lifestyle the west offers.
The clock is ticking on their time on this world and one believes the youth of Russia, or what’s left of it, have had 30 years of peace, prosperity and westernisation, the longer it goes on the less they will have of those Western goods they cherish, true they will still be available to the few, but the majority will be priced out of the market and wish for a return of what they once had, which in their cases was not Communism, but westernisation.
Just like nazism in Germany, time is a great healer and the generations that were fervent nazis are dying out and the country has changed.
Yes, you will get the odd fringe movement, you get that in all walks of life, but the Third Reich and all of its baggage tends to have been eradicated.
So one hopes with time the same happens in Russia as the older population dies off.
One should never look back for a better life, but forward..
….
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The talk of forced relocation of Ukrainians to the likes of Siberia would create its own problems too.
This war, regardless of everything else, is a Russian war of old men, men who remember a time of ultimate power and the USSR.
But even amongst them the Oligarchs whose wealth is derived from Russia “fled” in droves to the west to enjoy the freedom and lifestyle Russia could never offer them, they must be wanting a return to the lifestyle the west offers.
The clock is ticking on their time on this world and one believes the youth of Russia, or what’s left of it, have had 30 years of peace, prosperity and westernisation, the longer it goes on the less they will have of those Western goods they cherish, true they will still be available to the few, but the majority will be priced out of the market and wish for a return of what they once had, which in their cases was not Communism, but westernisation.
Just like nazism in Germany, time is a great healer and the generations that were fervent nazis are dying out and the country has changed.
Yes, you will get the odd fringe movement, you get that in all walks of life, but the Third Reich and all of its baggage tends to have been eradicated.
So one hopes with time the same happens in Russia as the older population dies off.
One should never look back for a better life, but forward..
….
It's time to begin decisive steps to bring this war to an end as soon as possible.
This is necessary to end the suffering and killing of all involved.
It is necessary because, as many have already said, Putin must never be allowed to gain a thing for Russia or himself and know he will be made accountable.
It is necessary because the west has neither inexhaustible resources nor inexhaustible will to continue supporting Ukraine (I hate to say it).
The west must get this thing over as soon as possible, it's that simple (but not easy). But, letting this go on and on is even harder.
The west must unite, and exercise both leadership and commitment.
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Originally Posted by GlobalNav;
It's time to begin decisive steps to bring this war to an end as soon as possible..................
Accelerating the war to that end by swiftly ramping up military supplies to produce a decisive routing of the occupation may catalyze desperation within the Kremlin. Regime collapse is, imho, unlikely since the narrative pursued by the Kremlin is firmly accepted by the Russian populace and therefore any existential threat will come with it the acceptance of nuclear use as unavoidable.- as the least worst outcome.
It is therefore logical and necessary to erode Russian occupation to a point where they are forced into an untenable position but not so fast to conclude the nuclear option as the only way out.
It is therefore logical and necessary to erode Russian occupation to a point where they are forced into an untenable position but not so fast to conclude the nuclear option as the only way out.
Last edited by Sfojimbo; 7th Oct 2023 at 04:29.
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We shouldn't expect the Russians to stop fighting. Like Nazi Germany, Putin has absolute power over what information ordinary Russians receive. They are dying in droves, but casualty figures are banned - only Ukranian deaths are reported. Everything Putin does is good, everything Ukraine does is bad. Anyone who dissents in Russia is jailed.
Putin is also banning VPNs - this will soon shut the population off from any available truth completely and forever. Time is ticking.
This all means that Putin can, and will, sacrifice great numbers of his young men without any personal consequence - a big difference between him and free world leaders.
So what does it look like to ordinary Russians? Well, the farmer who had 2 goats now only has one and, mysteriously, his son who joined the Army hasn't returned and nobody knows where he is. Bread is getting expensive too...
However, Putin's media is full of fake economic good news and no Russian casualties are acknowledged. They are helpless as lambs to the slaughter, and will continue to be so indefinitely,
At least the World is now aware of what Russia really is, and many Nations are safer for that knowledge. Thanks Ukraine, other civilised nations and NATO - keep up the pressure.
Putin is also banning VPNs - this will soon shut the population off from any available truth completely and forever. Time is ticking.
This all means that Putin can, and will, sacrifice great numbers of his young men without any personal consequence - a big difference between him and free world leaders.
So what does it look like to ordinary Russians? Well, the farmer who had 2 goats now only has one and, mysteriously, his son who joined the Army hasn't returned and nobody knows where he is. Bread is getting expensive too...
However, Putin's media is full of fake economic good news and no Russian casualties are acknowledged. They are helpless as lambs to the slaughter, and will continue to be so indefinitely,
At least the World is now aware of what Russia really is, and many Nations are safer for that knowledge. Thanks Ukraine, other civilised nations and NATO - keep up the pressure.
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The opposite side of this coin was given by Uberteknik who in post #5683 above stated succinctly what I see as the true situation the west faces:
Personally, I believe before this is over we are going to see at least one tactical nuke used by Russia. We will be very lucky if I am wrong on this IMO.
Personally, I believe before this is over we are going to see at least one tactical nuke used by Russia. We will be very lucky if I am wrong on this IMO.
It isn’t, a nuke, Is a nuke, Is a nuke….. one hopes the West has had the balls in no uncertain terms to tell Moscow, one nuke and Moscow is a smouldering glow in the dark hole.
That HAS TO BE the response, because if you do not respond then the Genie is well and truly out of the bottle and tinpot dictators the world over may gamble on dropping one in the belief there will not be a response.
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I see a great difference between a nuke or two decapitating the head of an armored column and a nuke on London, Berlin or New York. Tactical is tactical and strategic is strategic there is a great difference.
I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.
They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.
I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.
They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.
I see a great difference between a nuke or two decapitating the head of an armored column and a nuke on London, Berlin or New York. Tactical is tactical and strategic is strategic there is a great difference.
I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.
They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.
I believe that NATO's response to a tactical nuke would be overwhelming air power; that's what I would hope for too.
Russia is in a very weak position in the scenario of all out nuclear warfare, and I am sure their decision makers know it.
They are a country with two and only two centers of power: St Petersburg and Moscow, the West is widely disbursed.
They are very unlikely to unleash their ICBMs and boomers, we should never push them to the point where they believe they have nothing left to lose.
What might be the 'wiggle room' in which Putin would be minded to concede defeat, yet without believing he has nothing left to lose? He wishes to re-establish the old Soviet Empire, if I understand correctly. He has set himself up as the warrior facing the twin evils of Ukraine and NATO. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.
It's a realistic scenario; one which has been thoroughly wargamed in Washington, I expect. This raises the question of how rapidly a NATO force could be assembled and deployed. Not to forget: how the justification for NATO's action would be formulated, given that Ukraine is not a member.
What might be the 'wiggle room' in which Putin would be minded to concede defeat, yet without believing he has nothing left to lose? He wishes to re-establish the old Soviet Empire, if I understand correctly. He has set himself up as the warrior facing the twin evils of Ukraine and NATO. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.
What might be the 'wiggle room' in which Putin would be minded to concede defeat, yet without believing he has nothing left to lose? He wishes to re-establish the old Soviet Empire, if I understand correctly. He has set himself up as the warrior facing the twin evils of Ukraine and NATO. An all or nothing mindset, akin to Hitler's. Will he put a bullet through his brain? I wonder.
As far as assembling the force, it's already there. There are F-35s in Romania and Poland for sure, there have been F-22s in Romania, I don't know if they are still there. NATO could begin reducing Russia's air defenses in Ukraine within a few hours if desired.
Russia has already been warned that they will receive a vigorous response if they use nukes.
IMO
Putin wants to bluff his way into re-creating the 21st century version of the SU, he believes the west has weak knees and will be cowed by a minor nuke demonstration. But The Russians can war game things too. They can see the weak position they would be in if the west didn't fold. Under air attack from NATO, Putin would withdraw from Ukraine and tell the Russian people that he has saved the world from nuclear armageddon, and they would believe him.
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He will wait out the US elections and hope for chaos.
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A nuke no matter what you call it does not respect international borders, drop one and everyone gets a piece of the fall out.
it is no good saying, but they only dropped it on Ukraine when your hair is falling out in Poland, Hungary, Germany,. Chernobyl showed that.
Drop it in the south of the country and the world starve’s.
Saying if he drops one NATO will unleash the airforce etc, then what, he has already settled his conscience to the fact he has used one, why not use another to thwart NATOs AirPower… and another and another…
Hence why I believe the only response is for him to see key cities in his country glowing in reprisal and that’s from a person the believes the world should get rid of them all, no one wins..
…
it is no good saying, but they only dropped it on Ukraine when your hair is falling out in Poland, Hungary, Germany,. Chernobyl showed that.
Drop it in the south of the country and the world starve’s.
Saying if he drops one NATO will unleash the airforce etc, then what, he has already settled his conscience to the fact he has used one, why not use another to thwart NATOs AirPower… and another and another…
Hence why I believe the only response is for him to see key cities in his country glowing in reprisal and that’s from a person the believes the world should get rid of them all, no one wins..
…
Last edited by NutLoose; 7th Oct 2023 at 08:10.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
480th FS F-16 pilot sporting a Ghost of Kyiv patch that reads ВіРИТИ (Believe). This is particularly symbolic because the squadron is currently deployed and flying combat air patrols along the eastern flank.
I am just trying to get across that what is put out in the press and as military capabilities are often not the truth, you do NOT give out to the opposition your true capabilities. To do so would be madness, so you massage the figures to play down the range etc..
If as an example you put out your new super fighter had a max altitude of 56 thousand feet, then the other side would build a missile to intercept that, but if in reality the aircrafts max altitude is 66 thousand then it is ineffective.
If as an example you put out your new super fighter had a max altitude of 56 thousand feet, then the other side would build a missile to intercept that, but if in reality the aircrafts max altitude is 66 thousand then it is ineffective.
I'd also add (insider knowledge) that range specifications are highly dependent on launch conditions with a wide variation e.g. launch altitude, release speed, air temperature, air pressure, humidity etc. The target geodesic range is obviously not the same as flight path when waypoints are included.
All this to say the maximum flight distance is always an understatement for Western manufactured kit. The opposite tends to be true for Russian kit where specifications are quoted under best possible conditions and wholly unrealistic under true operational environments.
Which is why it's always suspect when someone pushes for critical weapon specifications and demands reliable sources. Rather like the 1982 incident where the BBC unforgivably reported Argentinian bomb fuzes were set incorrectly thus accounting for their high failure to detonate on striking Royal Navy ships. Sir Galahad and Sir Tristan with others paid the price.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
it is no good saying, but they only dropped it on Ukraine when your hair is falling out in Poland, Hungary, Germany,. Chernobyl showed that.
The Russian top brass may be corrupt but they are not complete idiots. The drip feeding (yes I would love to see a bit more enthusiastic deliveries here, there are close to 5000 Abrams idling towards their retirement somewhere in the US) by NATO countires of surplus of it's weakest area (Ground Forces, Arty) is (even without supporting/protecting Air Power) sufficient to slowly repell the by far strongest part of the Russian Military (Ground Forces, Arty). NATO's strong area is overwhelming Air Power and this hasn't even been part of the War in Ukraine. (Reminds me of: "We are fighting against Ukraine an the whole NATO and have lost 200 thousand men. And NATO? NATO hasn't yet arrived...")
Herein lies a message.
Yes the Media Dumb Heads and possibly a sizeable portion of the Russian populace may not understand this. But you can be sure the Top Brass of the Russian Military very clearly understands this. You can also be sure that if they had known what they know now, they would have never started this war.
Don't get me wrong: We should continue and increase the military support of Ukraine. We should do so because of all the atrocities, the Russians are committing. And to send a signal to all countries considering the same. But we shouldn't create 'fake-' scenarios for that. (Media is trying this all too often and often causing the exact opposite result to what they want to achieve) When people get the feeling it's faked (and counting 1 + 1 will lead them to this conclusion) it will be detrimental to the cause. People don't like to feel being considered idiots.
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How do you thwart whole NATO Air Power with a nuke? And with which carrier system do you want to achieve that? You can easily wipe out a city like Kiev. But in order to reach for instance Ramstein (and this wouldn't even thwart NATO Air Power, there is still for example the big docked Aircraft carrier HMS UK or its sister ships Spain and France) ballistic Iskanders won't be able to reach it. A Cruise Missile chuggin along merrily for close to one and a half hours over 1000km of NATO territory without being shot down? Ain't gonn'a happen. Only realistic option: ICBM with MIRV.
Can we please refrain from such blatant oversimplified phrases/scenarios. Don't consider your opponent to stoopid. They make mistakes. They make errors in judgement. They may be incompletely/ill informed. Still doesn't mean they are all out idiots. As*holes maybe but not idiots.
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Nutty, none of your arguments recognise the fact that nucs on Ukranian territory cannot provoke any sort of retaliatory military reaction from NATO as its charter specifically prevents that. And as ORAC pointed out, the radiation argument is fairly easily circumvented too, and pretty insignificant with small numbers of tactical warheads in any case.
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?
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Nutty, none of your arguments recognise the fact that nucs on Ukranian territory cannot provoke any sort of retaliatory military reaction from NATO as its charter specifically prevents that. And as ORAC pointed out, the radiation argument is fairly easily circumvented too, and pretty insignificant with small numbers of tactical warheads in any case.
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?
There'd be an absolute global uproar, certainly, and dountless massed mobilisation to NATO's borders, but the alliance remains powerless to respond militarily to action outside its territory, and Putain understands that perfectly well. Do you suppose he cares?
A342
Buster15, and in addition to your final outcome, the west pays the price some years down the line when Russia (now full of confidence) decide on a Special Operation to free western Europe!
My only conclusion is that Russia MUST be defeated NOW at whatever costs. If the west weakens their resolve now, they will suffer a worse fate later!
My only conclusion is that Russia MUST be defeated NOW at whatever costs. If the west weakens their resolve now, they will suffer a worse fate later!
Unfortunately, the US strained its resources in its forever wars in the Middle East too much. How many trillions were spend on them?
Russia is obviously playing for time. And it vastly outnumbers Ukraine in manpower.
Do we think the Hamas attack on Israel is partly a tactic to divert US attention from Ukraine? Sponsored by Syria under pressure from Putrid?
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