DogTailRed2

A Ukrainian Mig29 was damaged on the ground. Nothing unusual there. Using the Battle of Britain as an example aircraft that were dispersed and damaged, destroyed would be replaced by a pool of aircraft.
The pool would be resupplied from a factory pool which in turn is resupplied by the factory.
As there is no factory resupply (I'm not aware that the West is producing more stuff, just depleting it's old stocks even if it could make more `old` kit) is there a predicted date which the war will grind to a halt on the Ukrainians side or at least bog down into an infantry only war?
I'm surprised that no factories have been spooled up to produce more aircraft, tanks to meet demand.
Is that happening or are the predictions Ukraine will win before the West runs out of stuff?
(btw by stuff I'm talking Aircraft, Tanks and heavy equipment).

DaveReidUK

I think Ukraine has probably already passed the "mildly annoyed" stage.

Tartiflette Fan

I don't understand why they keep filming these grass fires.

Tartiflette Fan

Well, just looking numbers, I believe the USA has thousands of Abrams tanks in storage, then the Ukraine has captured more than 300 Russian tanks. I believe I have read that Russian tank capacity is in the low hundreds per year, so superficially, it would seem the Russkis would run out first.

GeeRam

They are struggling to do that with just ammo supplies.
It's simply not going to happen with aircraft, its not WW2, and no factory will be doing a make a Wellington bomber in 24hrs while being filmed...!
The only aircraft being made are those new orders for western aircraft (what there is of that) already on the books.
For a start, anything that has already stopped being made will never be made again.

NutLoose

Mud season is coming

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ORAC

The Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) is reported to have come under suspicion as a possible accomplice of Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny, following some strange occurrences involving the Wagner Group's weapons…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...518012196.html
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ORAC

Strikes on the Crimean bridge will continue on a regular basis. This was told by the head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov:

"The question is not whether we will attack or not. We do it regularly, so we will finish it. It's just a matter of time."

chopper2004

Anyhow back on topic, itn breaking news appears an IL-76 transport a/c has crashed somewhere in Africa, linked to Wagner exactly a month after the demise of their boss in a corporate jet

https://www.aviacionline.com/2023/09...-what-we-know/



cheers

elkadad

When anyone in the West refers to THE Crimea, it reinforces Putin's claim to Crimea. Thankfully, we don't hear/read The Ukraine any longer.

ORAC

Ukraine has broken through Russian defense in Verbove

"We have a breakthrough on the left flank near Verbove, and we continue to advance. Not as fast as expected, not as in the movies about the Second World War... The main thing is not to lose this initiative," Oleksandr Tarnavsky.

Commander of the Tavria Operational and Strategic Group

antheads

Poland gave Ukraine pretty much all it's tanks (incl pt-91 twardy)
whilst Germany was sending 5000 helmets. Poland demanded that the NATO upgraded Mig-29's should be sent to Ukraine, despite German protestations.

The Polish/Czech/Slovakian leaders were the first to catch the train to Ukraine, under the threat of being bombed by ruskis, whilst the EU was bemused and saying this visit was not officially approved.

ORAC

Ukrainian government has announced that all Ukrainians that may be in Crimea should leave immediately.

Things about to kick off..

​​​​​​​"I ask Ukrainians to leave Crimea if possible. Please wait out the de-occupation of the peninsula on the controlled territory or in third countries," Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk stressed.

ORAC

Figure for those killed in the attack on the navy HQ now up to 34, mostly officers….

ORAC

Warning, it’s a pretty brutal sustained attack on those already wounded until none survive….

​​​​​​​🔥 30th Mechanised Brigade continue destroy orcs near Bakhmut, #Donetsk region

The Russian commanders send these orcs for meat, but thanks to drones, Ukrainian soldiers can effectively destroy invaders without risk its own life

Beamr

Russian mobiks talk about murdering an Ukrainian POW.
The way things are going for the Russkies, none of these mobiks probably won't live to see Christmas so won't be seeing court either.

ORAC

The breakdown in law and order in Russia continues, with ever reducing numbers of police and local enforcement as men are sent to the front…

The 90s are back in Russia: Bandits set up checkpoints on highways and demand cash from drivers for passage.

​​​​​​​ This is in Chelyabinsk.

ORAC

👀👀👀

Lavrov:

Russia suppprts the territorial integrity of Ukraine - as long as it remains non-aligned?

Presumably, of course, excluding those parts which are now parts of Russia such as Kherson etc.

Colour me cynical….



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ORAC

Ex-Wagner group commander arrested in Norway for attempting to illegally cross back into Russia.

Andrey Medvedev, the former Wagner Group commander who escaped to Norway in a bid to seek asylum, was arrested by authorities near Kirkenes after trying to cross back into Russia.

Beamr

Interesting, during the full scale Russian attack Russian Armed Forces has lost 25 aircrafts and 9 helicopters in non-combat events. I.e. on top of combat losses. Interesting is especially the number of lost SU-34's which should be one of the latest and greatest Soviet Russian aircraft.