AUKUS

[SpazSinbad]

Another 22 Jul 2022 report:
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/fleet-of-nuclear-submarines-will-be-sent-by-britain-to-australia-as-a-warning-to-china/ar-AAZPBMG
"...Last night the MoD said: ‘It is UK policy that we do not comment on matters relating to submarine activity or operations.’"

[golder]

Originally Posted by tartare

Yep - not surprised by that.
I suspect you'll see both British and American boats moving through Perth on a regular basis from now on.
Interesting backgrounder here on the similarities/differences between the two boats.
https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/as...for-australia/
Payload and combat system a significant tick for the Virginia class I would argue.
And that said - noting there'll be no capacity for Britain to build any Australian boats in the near future, this report makes for sobering reading on the US ability to even supply it's own needs:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL32418

If they get a firm ongoing order. The yard has said it can increase and build 3 Virginia's a year. Refer to Usni

[Asturias56]

"The yard has said it can increase and build 3 Virginia's a year. "

Well of course they have - but CAN they ? over the last 30 years getting vessels of any type out of any yard anywhere on time and cost has been a bit fraught. And all the N sub makers have had serious issues.

The fastest way for the RAN is to takeover some early Virginias on lease -that will minimise impact on the USN and allow the RAN to get up to speed with the very different operating environment of an SSN

[Going Boeing]

Originally Posted by golder

If they get a firm ongoing order. The yard has said it can increase and build 3 Virginia's a year. Refer to Usni

That’s not what they are telling Congress, the fact that construction of the Columbia class SSBN has absolute priority over every other military program has meant that most of the skilled workers at GDEB & HII have been moved onto that program so the completion and delivery of new Virginia SSN’s has been adversely affected with significant delays being experienced, especially with the Block 5 boats. They are currently unable to deliver 2 Virginia’s per annum as they can’t find sufficient staff and get them trained to a competent level.

It also indicates that they will struggle to release skilled managers to loan to ASC for the construction at Osborne.

As far as getting RAN personnel up to speed on Nukes, I suspect that the USN may end up home porting 2 Virginia’s at Fleet Base West. These vessels would be manned with experienced USN trainers and RAN submariners and would be deployed on normal USN missions. In this way, the USN would retain their critically needed submarines but assist the RAN in getting sufficient submariners trained before the ASC built vessels enter service. This obviously assumes that the RAN & Government choose the Virginia over the Astute.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Going Boeing

That’s not what they are telling Congress, the fact that construction of the Columbia class SSBN has absolute priority over every other military program has meant that most of the skilled workers at GDEB & HII have been moved onto that program so the completion and delivery of new Virginia SSN’s has been adversely affected with significant delays being experienced, especially with the Block 5 boats. They are currently unable to deliver 2 Virginia’s per annum as they can’t find sufficient staff and get them trained to a competent level.

It also indicates that they will struggle to release skilled managers to loan to ASC for the construction at Osborne.

As far as getting RAN personnel up to speed on Nukes, I suspect that the USN may end up home porting 2 Virginia’s at Fleet Base West. These vessels would be manned with experienced USN trainers and RAN submariners and would be deployed on normal USN missions. In this way, the USN would retain their critically needed submarines but assist the RAN in getting sufficient submariners trained before the ASC built vessels enter service. This obviously assumes that the RAN & Government choose the Virginia over the Astute.

I pretty much agree with what you said, a somewhat interesting side note. I have a friend who applied for and looks to have a been successful (accepted by previous govt but not yet confirmed by new govt) for the 20K grant to study nuclear engineering. He seems to believe that Australians will mostly be going to the UK nuclear engineering school as they have more spare capacity than the american school does atm. Also most of the sub officers goto either british or dutch perisher

[Imagegear]

If it were only about the boat, this decision would be a no-brainer.

But it is not. Perhaps this article has been fielded before, but it gives an idea of the magnitude of the decision.

Virginia vs Astute

IG

[golder]

Originally Posted by Going Boeing

That’s not what they are telling Congress, the fact that construction of the Columbia class SSBN has absolute priority over every other military program has meant that most of the skilled workers at GDEB & HII have been moved onto that program so the completion and delivery of new Virginia SSN’s has been adversely affected with significant delays being experienced, especially with the Block 5 boats. They are currently unable to deliver 2 Virginia’s per annum as they can’t find sufficient staff and get them trained to a competent level.

A lot is how they talk to congress. they do the same with the F-35.They do say they can ramp up to 3
https://news.usni.org/2020/11/18/nav...pyard-capacity
The Navy has “full confidence we can ramp up” to building three attack submarines per year if the Navy buildup proposed by former Defense Secretary Mark Esper were to be enacted, despite ongoing delays in Block IV Virginia-class construction, the program executive officer for submarines said today.

[ORAC]

Contractors always swear they can perform up to the moment the contract is signed - then the delays are always factors outside their control, especially the inevitable contract changes…

[golder]

It is the USN and Defense Secretary Mark Esper saying it. The contractor wants a firm order before they spend their money on infrastructure

[Asturias56]

That's what they say but "despite ongoing delays in Block IV Virginia-class construction, " shows there is still a problem with current build rates.

As I've said NO country is able to deliver SSN/'s and SSBN's on time - they are extremely complex bits of kit

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Asturias56

That's what they say but "despite ongoing delays in Block IV Virginia-class construction, " shows there is still a problem with current build rates.

As I've said NO country is able to deliver SSN/'s and SSBN's on time - they are extremely complex bits of kit

Pretty sure all the early virginia's were on time, or close enough for government work. They block V's have been delayed but all the a earlier blocks have been near enough to on schedule. The block V are having issues because of covid and being ordered to a prioritise the columbia class

[golder]

Part of the reason is that some lifetime parts aren't lasting a lifetime. They were stolen from current build and they are now delayed till the new replacement parts come.

[JeanKhul]

Aussies will never get nuclear subs - painful, but so obvious.
The only thing they can dream about, would be leasing some UK our US subs - or asking them to stop from time to time in Darwin or Perth - and put a RAN flag on top, for the duration of the stopover. Maximum.

[Tocsin]

Originally Posted by JeanKhul

Aussies will never get nuclear subs - painful, but so obvious.
The only thing they can dream about, would be leasing some UK our US subs - or asking them to stop from time to time in Darwin or Perth - and put a RAN flag on top, for the duration of the stopover. Maximum.

French grapes are so sour...

[HK144]

Originally Posted by JeanKhul

Aussies will never get nuclear subs - painful, but so obvious.
The only thing they can dream about, would be leasing some UK our US subs - or asking them to stop from time to time in Darwin or Perth - and put a RAN flag on top, for the duration of the stopover. Maximum.

Get out of le bed on the wrong side did we?

[Buster Hyman]

Originally Posted by JeanKhul

Aussies will never get nuclear subs - painful, but so obvious.
The only thing they can dream about, would be leasing some UK our US subs - or asking them to stop from time to time in Darwin or Perth - and put a RAN flag on top, for the duration of the stopover. Maximum.

Better than a White one.

[BBadanov]

Originally Posted by JeanKhul

Aussies will never get nuclear subs - painful, but so obvious.
The only thing they can dream about, would be leasing some UK our US subs - or asking them to stop from time to time in Darwin or Perth - and put a RAN flag on top, for the duration of the stopover. Maximum.

Unfortunately, I may agree with our Froggie mate here.
With a Labor Govt in now (who never really want to talk nuke), and with our appalling and delayed procurement process, and the limited SSN supply pool, and the virtual lack of an AUS nuke industry and knowledge, nuke subs are not only a way off - but also delays will likely lead to a lack of interest as the project falls by the wayside.
But there is much benefit in ongoing AUKUS 3-eyes common procurement (of airframes for instance), intel, basing, networking, policy, procedures, exercises, operations, and dialog.

[tartare]

Originally Posted by BBadanov

Unfortunately, I may agree with our Froggie mate here.
With a Labor Govt in now (who never really want to talk nuke), and with our appalling and delayed procurement process, and the limited SSN supply pool, and the virtual lack of an AUS nuke industry and knowledge, nuke subs are not only a way off - but also delays will likely lead to a lack of interest as the project falls by the wayside.
But there is much benefit in ongoing AUKUS 3-eyes common procurement (of airframes for instance), intel, basing, networking, policy, procedures, exercises, operations, and dialog.

Nah - disagree.
The fact we have a Labor government has nothing to do with whether the subs will arrive.
AUKUS was the only thing those useless, do nothing muppets who were booted out did of any note.
Trust God, not Government? That's the calibre of leader we had for the last decade.
The adults who are now in charge are committed to the nuclear boats, and they'll arrive, despite the whining.
Might be a while, but the geopolitics of the region over the next few decades mean they're essential.

[JeanKhul]

Originally Posted by Buster Hyman

Better than a White one.

Never raised a white one ? Singapore / Feb 1942
Never re-embarked in a rush ? Dunkirk, Gallipoli.....
Let's try to keep it to the sub subject.
There has been a major government change down under, so now the failure of the process can be offloaded to the previous one.
Being in need of nuclear subs is not the same as operating them, not even building.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by JeanKhul

There has been a major government change down under, so now the failure of the process can be offloaded to the previous one.
Being in need of nuclear subs is not the same as operating them, not even building.

Labor wont dump the project, its one of the few things the liberals did that is popular with majority of Australians. Last figures I saw it had 60-70% popularity, it was a not insubstantial amount of greens, which is why that after a few hours of criticising it the greens leader went AFK on the subject, polling came out it was popular even with greens voters