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China's expansionist strategy

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China's expansionist strategy

Old 29th Apr 2020, 09:51
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China's expansionist strategy

Noting China's recent push into the South China Sea, sabre rattling noises regarding Taiwan, and the latest Australian "Gum under the Shoe" insults, I cannot help but
see remarkable parallels with Hitler's annexation of Austria and the masquerade at the Polish border crossing. Russia's annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing activities in eastern Ukraine, etc.

I am fully expecting Chinese troops to start to infiltrate borders, or create diversions with various countries in the region.

Where do we think that a scenario is likely to be played out first?

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 09:58
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North Korea? Sorry, couldn't resist....
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:22
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Image - none of these things are new

Why would they start a war with anyone when they're still trying to get the country back on its feet after the CV-19 problem?

the "It's Hitler all over again" has been (mis-used) to justify every military intervention since WW2 - especially Vietnam and Iraq. If you want to repeat that exercise..............
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:52
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Originally Posted by DirtyProp View Post
North Korea? Sorry, couldn't resist....
Actually that's not way off the mark. Should NK go super-critical, there will be a need to lock down the nuclear arsenal very quickly.

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 10:59
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Arcturias56

Yes - there is an impact from COVID but if they are to strike anytime it is while the world is distracted, and they don't seem to be particularly focussed on their own internal COVID issues and more concerned with leveraging power.

I agree that it will not be Hitler all over again, but the parallels are there.

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 11:14
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China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China. The building of small airports in the SCS is a first line defence against the American PO Fleet.

The thing is that they want a unification with Taiwan before 2049, 100 years for the CM Mao era, and China as we know it today. But not only that. They want a big celebration in 2049, not being remembered for the however the Taiwan was handled. In general it took 20 years for the Chinese to not being in bad standing after the 1989 tiananmen sq, so that means that they have 10 years from now, to handle the Taiwan issue also including a military solution. The US, Brits and French know this, hence they have upgraded their attention and patrols in the international waters at the straits of Taiwan. China will not risk a WW, but for Taiwan, a destruction will be acceptable for them. Therefore is the solution to keep patrolling, these international waters.

The Hong Kong issue will be over soon. But clock is ticking fast regarding Taiwan.

Just MHO.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 11:15
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1. Realise that waiting a year or 10 until the next major pandemic comes along is better that conjuring up plausible deniability if you release a virus from a lab.
2. Prepare the battle space in any areas of interest that have a long lead time (e.g. South China Sea).
3. Be able to absorb the effects of a pandemic in your own population.
4. Do some window dressing by knocking up a hospital or 2 in very short order.
5. Be able to hide the real effects on your own population by controlling the media, medical stats reporting etc
6. Be ready to act the good guy and win influence in key areas (PPE to Italy to undermine EU).
7. Know that your own economy will recover quicker than the Wests's, so you will be able to take an even more dominating share of markets as your economy recovers.
8. Time your moves in to your other areas of interest when the World's attention is most distracted.

All you need is a large enough group of people to be able to handle operations on more than one front...
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 11:29
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That's it then bridgets boy - the Chinese have everything in place - so we are going to have to man up or shut up.

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 11:32
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Originally Posted by Easyheat View Post
China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China. The building of small airports in the SCS is a first line defence against the American PO Fleet.

The thing is that they want a unification with Taiwan before 2049, 100 years for the CM Mao era, and China as we know it today. But not only that. They want a big celebration in 2049, not being remembered for the however the Taiwan was handled. In general it took 20 years for the Chinese to not being in bad standing after the 1989 tiananmen sq, so that means that they have 10 years from now, to handle the Taiwan issue also including a military solution. The US, Brits and French know this, hence they have upgraded their attention and patrols in the international waters at the straits of Taiwan. China will not risk a WW, but for Taiwan, a destruction will be acceptable for them. Therefore is the solution to keep patrolling, these international waters.

The Hong Kong issue will be over soon. But clock is ticking fast regarding Taiwan.

Just MHO.
With China grabbing large swathes of the South China sea which borders on many countries in that part of Asia, it's not a stretch to see something being engineered in the littoral. We are also talking Oil here, not a rare commodity at the moment but in the future, may becomes so. China playing the long game.

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 11:50
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https://www.ebrd.com/what-we-do/belt.../overview.html
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 12:35
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Originally Posted by Imagegear View Post
Noting China's recent push into the South China Sea, sabre rattling noises regarding Taiwan, and the latest Australian "Gum under the Shoe" insults, I cannot help but
see remarkable parallels with Hitler's annexation of Austria and the masquerade at the Polish border crossing. Russia's annexation of the Crimea, and the ongoing activities in eastern Ukraine, etc.

I am fully expecting Chinese troops to start to infiltrate borders, or create diversions with various countries in the region.

Where do we think that a scenario is likely to be played out first?

IG
No reason for them to put troops anywhere. They've set out to pursue a zone of influence into the Pacific which both provides a buffer zone to PRC itself and also massively increases their proximity / influence to other Asian nations. They said they'd do it, drew maps about what they were going to do, built islands / atolls where they said they would and have essentially proceeded as per plan. Other than the odd FoNEx and some stiff words in the UNSC, no meaningful challenge to this presented.

A fair bet they've managed a fait accompli.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 12:41
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Boff,

Yes, but when does island hopping stop, and peninsular grabbing begin?

I fear it's on the cards (or in the tea leaves)

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 13:15
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Up to a point, I'm with IG. Before this evil that has befallen us, I spent considerable time in Vietnam working alongside the locals. Asking the Man on the Saigon Omnibus what he fears for the future and the answer is invariably China and invasion. And surely now is the very time for China to act, while the world's attention is elsewhere. Should it want to, of course?

Last edited by BirdController; 29th Apr 2020 at 13:37.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 13:58
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should watch the German documentary "the new Silk Road" very enlightening
confirms the below ideas about Chinese expansion, worrisome about the balkans and expansion into Eastern Europe (Hungary etc)
worth the 2 episodes
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 14:20
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magyr,

Viewing the China expansion as an economic policy opposed to a military intention; to date it has made significant progress. There will be military defensive positioning to follow up - providing support to foreign nations in return for use of ports or infrastructure, most likely defending a much needed resource. Look towards Africa.

Thus it is interesting to reconsider this aspect post Covid.
China's manufacturing capability appears to be faring as well as any in the current economic climate. The dependance on oil may not be as significant now as would be basic materials, food, cheap manufactured goods. Thus world positioning vs essential resource could dominate - consider the focus on rare earth metals used in computers, phones, etc.

In parallel there is high level education, technology development, energy resource, and a relatively low cost infrastructure to support these.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 14:29
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….and of course Australia is a significant mineral resource supplier to China.

One only has to look at the sheer number of Chinese ore carriers waiting to load in the Northern Territories. They have also of course, "Acquired access" by buying out the Port of Darwin.

In 2015, the Chinese-owned Landbridge Group won the bid for a lease of Port Darwin. The Northern Territory Government granted the company a 99-year lease for A$506 million.
The question is whether the market for Chinese products will continue post COVID. Personally I see a punitive tariff framework coming to the fore.

IG
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 15:02
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In 2015, the Chinese-owned Landbridge Group won the bid for a lease of Port Darwin. The Northern Territory Government granted the company a 99-year lease for A$506 million.
By the time that lease is up Australia will be an atoll.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 16:28
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"China has IMHO no plans of expanding its impire, but it does consider Taiwan to be a part of China."

Ermmm the Govt of Taiwan also considers it is part of China

"
The question is whether the market for Chinese products will continue post COVID. Personally I see a punitive tariff framework coming to the fore." - that assumes those imposing the tariffs can source things from elsewhere - I don't think they can in many cases - or not in the volumes and prices voters expect.

In my opinion there is only one thing that would cause the Chinese to kick of a major military action - and that would be Taiwan declaring full independence. That is something the mainland will never, ever, countenance.
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Old 29th Apr 2020, 16:58
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Originally Posted by Asturias56 View Post
Ermmm the Govt of Taiwan also considers it is part of China.
I doubt that Govt of Taiwan considers itself as part of Communist China in any shape or form. Pretty hard to be a functioning democracy if did.

About the closest you could get to the 'One China' or the 'One Country, Two Systems' is the Communist (revisionist) view of the '1992 Consensus', but that view is not shared by Taiwan.

Consider this statement from the Taiwanese President in early 2019:
First, I must emphasise that we have never accepted the "1992 Consensus." The fundamental reason is because the Beijing authorities' definition of the "1992 Consensus" is "one China" and "one country, two systems." The speech delivered by China's leader today has confirmed our misgivings. Here, I want to reiterate that Taiwan absolutely will not accept "one country, two systems." The vast majority of Taiwanese also resolutely oppose "one country, two systems," and this opposition is also a "Taiwan consensus."
The govt of Taiwan would support China rejecting the current totalitarian communist system and 'bravely move towards democracy'. Not sure anyone was holding their breath with that one.


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Old 29th Apr 2020, 17:01
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They’re not ready yet...

Despite the aggression in the SCS, the Chinese military is not ready for a large scale confrontation.

Their economy would be devastated because it’s so highly geared towards exports. In about 10 years when there is more domestic demand maybe they’ll consider it.

If you look through all the noise regarding building LHD’s in ‘months’ (rubbish), the navy has at best two training carriers and a very limited amphibious assault capability. The bases in the SCS make up for this lack of power projection but wouldn’t stop the US Navy sitting off the east coast of Taiwan assisting in a war overhead Taiwan tomorrow.

The Air Force is the same, the development of stealth fighters and bombers will be much further advanced 10-15 years from now. By then all the US will have is more F-35’s!!

The PLA is being reorganised into regional commands and reduced in size to improve its quality.

Today China could give the USA/Japan a decent sting in the western pacific and SCS. But they wouldn’t win. Give them 10-15 years on their current trajectory and the USA may find it difficult operating west of Hawaii. Guam will need significant work (SAM defence and hardened shelters) to make it more than a fighter outpost in any conflict. I’d argue the US would not risk bombers landing there in a US-China war.

China has changed under President Xi and will not return to being a ‘cuddly panda’. But there is plenty of grey areas to be exploited before we find ourselves at war.


“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”
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