They’re not ready yet...
Despite the aggression in the SCS, the Chinese military is not ready for a large scale confrontation.
Their economy would be devastated because it’s so highly geared towards exports. In about 10 years when there is more domestic demand maybe they’ll consider it.
If you look through all the noise regarding building LHD’s in ‘months’ (rubbish), the navy has at best two training carriers and a very limited amphibious assault capability. The bases in the SCS make up for this lack of power projection but wouldn’t stop the US Navy sitting off the east coast of Taiwan assisting in a war overhead Taiwan tomorrow.
The Air Force is the same, the development of stealth fighters and bombers will be much further advanced 10-15 years from now. By then all the US will have is more F-35’s!!
The PLA is being reorganised into regional commands and reduced in size to improve its quality.
Today China could give the USA/Japan a decent sting in the western pacific and SCS. But they wouldn’t win. Give them 10-15 years on their current trajectory and the USA may find it difficult operating west of Hawaii. Guam will need significant work (SAM defence and hardened shelters) to make it more than a fighter outpost in any conflict. I’d argue the US would not risk bombers landing there in a US-China war.
China has changed under President Xi and will not return to being a ‘cuddly panda’. But there is plenty of grey areas to be exploited before we find ourselves at war.
“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting”