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UK Strategic Defence Review 2020 - get your bids in now ladies & gents

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UK Strategic Defence Review 2020 - get your bids in now ladies & gents

Old 5th Nov 2020, 10:18
  #481 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Sigh.....

The Chancellor is appointed by, and works for, the PRIME Minister. The incumbent Chancellors job, as for the rest of the Cabinet, is to deliver policy as laid down by the PRIME Minister based on the manifesto. They are not independent post holders with their own ideas, policies, plans and agendas.

Some people need to remember the other title on No. 10 Downing Street, and the PM's additional title; FIRST LORD OF THE TREASURY.
...and that theory really worked during the infighting of the Bliar/Brown years didn't it?

(Tumbleweed).
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 11:04
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Okay, my mistake on the numbers.

£3bn a year vs £1.9bn for one year....

The latter serves no purpose in the post-Brexit climate.

If only there wasn't an economic crisis....
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 11:30
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Sigh..... The Chancellor is appointed by, and works for, the PRIME Minister. The incumbent Chancellors job, as for the rest of the Cabinet, is to deliver policy as laid down by the PRIME Minister based on the manifesto. They are not independent post holders with their own ideas, policies, plans and agendas. ........
But then there was that chillingly accurate potrayal of UK politics, "Yes Minister". H 'n' H's view is that any manifesto is a rather pie-in-the-sky attempt by the respective Parties to con as many people as possible into voting for them and which is then promptly sidelined after the Election as it is generally obviously unachievable ... and that's before things like Covid pandemics come along and completely derail the train set! As for inter-departmental spats, par for the course. Just some PM's are better than others at herding the cats!!!

Or maybe I'm just a cynic.........!
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 13:18
  #484 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by BVRAAM
Okay, my mistake on the numbers.

£3bn a year vs £1.9bn for one year....

The latter serves no purpose in the post-Brexit climate.

If only there wasn't an economic crisis....

An increase of £1.9b "serves no purpose?"

What!!!!

Are you real, with people blathering on about defence CUTS you blithely dismiss a £1.9b increase?
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 13:22
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Hot 'n' High,

If you want a chillingly accurate portrayal of UK politics take a look at "The thick of it" TV series or spin offs rather that a quaint 40 year old BBC sitcom.

No manifesto is chucked aside with such a cavalier attitude as you suggest, unless you are a Lib Dem and ylou are talking tuition fees...

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Old 5th Nov 2020, 15:02
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
An increase of £1.9b "serves no purpose?"

What!!!!

Are you real, with people blathering on about defence CUTS you blithely dismiss a £1.9b increase?

Over one single year, it isn't going to address the issue, is it?
If anything, it's going to harm defence because it will be a cut to the following year's budget. One step forward, one back - that's not progress, and certainly won't achieve the vision of a "global Britain," as the Prime Minister has repeatedly alluded to.

It's pretty terrible.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 15:25
  #487 (permalink)  
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The problem is that the Ministry of Defence is facing a black hole of £13 billion in its ten-year budget for equipment. If you kick in £ 1.9 Bn extra for one year most of it will go to fill the hole - or if it is spent on new kit the hole only gets bigger (and that has been the pattern since 1945).

Since the MoD are incapable of costing things properly we finish up with something BIG having to be sacrificed or alternatively just let everything slowly bleed down

|The alternative, to ring fence cash from a tax raise, is politically not on the table even in good times
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 15:35
  #488 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Training Risky
...and that theory really worked during the infighting of the Bliar/Brown years didn't it?

(Tumbleweed).
Blair Brown were in dispute about succession, not fiscal policy.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 16:01
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
..... No manifesto is chucked aside with such a cavalier attitude as you suggest, unless you are a Lib Dem and ylou are talking tuition fees...
Ok, to be fair (and perhaps nearer the reality), I was simply making the point that the world we live in is somewhat more complex than the "PM says, the Party jumps" world as in your post #489. Clearly, any Party wishes to deliver what it offers in the Manifesto.

However, the track record of Manifesto's being achieved is patchy, often due to changing circumstances such as 2008 or Covid. On a good day, many a manifesto relies on a dose of good fortune as the "affordability" of such plans is often debatable - much like some MoD Procurement Projects as Asturias56 wryly observes in post #497! There are also other forces at work when priorities need to be weighed up as various Ministers fight their corner for a slice of the pie as Easy Street observes in post #490. I'd suggest the "human nature" satirically demonstrated in "Yes Minister" has not changed much when it comes to such fights. That was the beauty of that sitcom - then and now!

This Thread started on 2nd Dec last year. Many of us "rolled eyes" having seen endless "brave new worlds" all of which have crashed or, rather, fizzled out. Today, the whole game has changed significantly. We have, on the last couple of pages, been discussing how to minimise the long term impact of the current Covid borrowing. Any Review now has Covid repayments to factor in when it comes to "affordability". As Marly Lite said at post #475, "Dont worry, YOU (and I) will pay for it in taxes and inflation. For the rest of our lives."! One of my kids is on furlough - oblivious as to what this is lining her and her generation up for long after H 'n' H has checked out from "life".

Interesting times ...... and a whole new slant to the title of this Thread - ".....get your bids in now ladies & gents" - we could add "... now the limited pie is about to be slashed further!". The Economy over the next few years has just become even more unpredictable, hence the one-year settlement being mooted.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 19:13
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
Blair Brown were in dispute about succession, not fiscal policy.
pr00ne,

From all I'm given to understand, not what I actually know of course, there was considerable disagreement between Blair and Brown concerning a couple of policy decisions, one was whether or not to take us into the Euro, Blair wanted in, Brown out, for fiscal reasons indeed. Then there was the interventionist nature of Blair and his seeming obsession with standing by Bush Jnr every step of the way, hence Gulf War 2. Brown was very much a reluctant participant and didn't/couldn't/wouldn't find the funding for the Defence Budget which the Defence Chiefs believed was necessary to maintain all the overseas campaigns and maintain the kind of projected peacetime defence posture, determined through SDR '98, outside of this. The result was very much the outcome of Hoon's "Delivering Security in an ever changing World" (I hope I've got the title right) review in 2004. Hope this post doesn't place me below the bar of that expected of a "professional" contributant.

FB
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 21:54
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Sadly there is no strategy at all today, because the UK government has not decided where to go.
A Euro centric focus would be mostly business as usual, deter the Russians somewhere, maybe along the Eastern Polish Frontier, tanks, strike aircraft and air to air supremacy.
An independent stance would be totally different, lots of territorial control assets, mostly offshore oriented, a modest nuclear deterrent and a fairly robust SAS style intervention force.
Has anyone articulated the basis for the current 'strategic review'?
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 23:36
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Originally Posted by etudiant
Sadly there is no strategy at all today, because the UK government has not decided where to go.
A Euro centric focus would be mostly business as usual, deter the Russians somewhere, maybe along the Eastern Polish Frontier, tanks, strike aircraft and air to air supremacy.
An independent stance would be totally different, lots of territorial control assets, mostly offshore oriented, a modest nuclear deterrent and a fairly robust SAS style intervention force.
Has anyone articulated the basis for the current 'strategic review'?
The Euro centric focus? I imagine you mean the NATO focus? That's not changed for us anymore than it has for anyone else. Unless you're referring to the occasionally denied Euro Army?

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Old 13th Nov 2020, 07:55
  #493 (permalink)  
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Cummings to be gone by Christmas according to the BBC - you can hear the sigh of relief though the Industrial/Military Complex.............
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Old 13th Nov 2020, 09:21
  #494 (permalink)  
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Cummings to be gone by Christmas according to the BBC - you can hear the sigh of relief though the Industrial/Military Complex.............
Why would they be relieved? He is big on R&D, which is what they love.....

Guido Fawkes:

...”There are now rumours Cummings may leave Downing Street in January only to oversee Britain’s DARPA, Dom’s Advanced Research Projects Agency, where he would hot desk out of the Cabinet Office while working on pet projects.

His WhatsApp profile bio lists his priorities as “GetBrexitDoneThenARPA” – referencing the Advanced Research Projects Agency set up by the US in 1958 that has had mixed results.

Coincidentally, Sunak announced £800 million for such a “blue skies thinking agency” back in March…”

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Old 13th Nov 2020, 16:17
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Cummings to be gone by Christmas according to the BBC - you can hear the sigh of relief though the Industrial/Military Complex.............

I hope not.
At least, not until he has royally stuffed the institutional cronyism within the Armed Forces and MOD which favours promotion by boot licking, rather than performance and time served...
The government and senior leaders require subordinates who are willing to speak "truth to power" without fear of consequences affecting their career progression. Total accountability is impossible without this, because 'yes men' will say whatever is needed for a good report and it's not necessarily in the interests of protecting the country. Just look at the recent history with regards to Labour's extreme, overly ambitious spending plans in defence, which really hurt the military after the review in 2010 when it was realised that our economy couldn't sustain it. Speaking out against it would have been career damaging.... on both occasions.
The history books have documented a lot of this and it's rather sad.
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Old 13th Nov 2020, 16:33
  #496 (permalink)  
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Already gone.....

Breaking News:

PM adviser Dominic Cummings has left Number 10 with immediate effect, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says.

Mr Cummings spoke to the PM earlier on Friday and it was decided it was best for him to go immediately after days of turmoil, our political editor said.

The PM's director of communications Lee Cain has also left.

This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly. Please refresh the page for the fullest version.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54938050


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Old 13th Nov 2020, 16:51
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Cummings to be gone by Christmas according to the BBC - you can hear the sigh of relief though the Industrial/Military Complex.............
I agree with ORAC that this is the wrong take, with one exception... BAES will be breathing a huge sigh of relief as they can stop worrying about high-end R&D and get back to their preferred business model of selling unremarkable products “cheaply” to MOD at marginal cost, to Gulf states at high markups, and trousering support and upgrade money from its customers over an extended service life. Many within the military were actually hoping that Cummings would succeed in forcing a different approach with his support for Defence investment in other industries and academic research. However - he has been intending to move on for some time and I wonder whether the Cabinet Secretary, an unusual appointment in many ways and much less vulnerable to being ousted, has been primed to take forward some of Cummings’s thinking on research and innovation without it attracting fire simply for being Cummings’s.
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Old 13th Nov 2020, 19:16
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Spaceship 1 to Epsilon 5.... If the link doesn't work, look for Spitting Image on the web/Facebook...

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Old 14th Nov 2020, 06:54
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I wonder what Cummings departure will mean for the supposedly already thrashed out Foreign, Defence and Security review? I was speaking to a mate this morning who reckoned, Lee Cain, an ally of Cummings, a former Daily Mirror reporter or some such position, apart from dressing up as a Chicken and mocking Tory MPs, was actively engaged, with Cummings in discrediting the Prime Minister. Taking all this into account, how the hell was it thought prudent to hire either of them in the first place. But my mate believes, that the pair worked very hard to wrong foot Johnson, and it worked. Hopefully now, Boris can get back on an even Kiel.

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Old 14th Nov 2020, 07:12
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" was actively engaged, with Cummings in discrediting the Prime Minister."

That's unlikely - they owed their whole promotion & position to him. Its a classic faction fight between two groups for the ear of a weak and indecisive man - check out Barchester Towers - or remember the question asked in 1912 of a very senior Tsarist Minister "Who is the most important man in Russia?" "Simple - the last man the Tsar talked to"
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