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UK Strategic Defence Review 2020 - get your bids in now ladies & gents

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UK Strategic Defence Review 2020 - get your bids in now ladies & gents

Old 1st Nov 2020, 17:32
  #461 (permalink)  
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"With the deficit at £350 billion and the pandemic far from over" - and another extension of Govt spending coming ....

The cuts could be severe - but I suspect it'll be kick the can down the road time until they can see what the mountain of debt finally looks like
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Old 1st Nov 2020, 20:15
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Debt is cheap just now, so maybe we write Covid costs off over the next couple of generations. Almost a war debt. Defence on the other hand needs money now.
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Old 1st Nov 2020, 20:34
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Originally Posted by NWSRG
Debt is cheap just now, so maybe we write Covid costs off over the next couple of generations. Almost a war debt. Defence on the other hand needs money now.
Not sure that will work. Social security will go up, NHS... up, crime... up. All due to £100bn of Covid, keeping people alive in the UK.

There’s no sexy war, no clips of humanitarian aid, disaster relief etc. There’s just a mountain of debt, and a population that doesn’t want to lose their quality of life, as it used to be just 8 months ago.

Time to wake up, money will go to the closest beak, not the best in the background.

For every £ you want for the military, there’s a need just as desperate for a tax payer. Expect scrutiny like never before now.
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Old 2nd Nov 2020, 13:33
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Bank of England currently owns about 50% of government debt. Plans this week to increase quantitative easing. The interest from that deb goes... back to the government. All Boris needs to do is change that debts status. Never to be paid back, but interest to be paid forever. A circle will be formed and 50% of uk debt will effectively disappear.
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Old 3rd Nov 2020, 02:32
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Originally Posted by hulahoop7
Bank of England currently owns about 50% of government debt. Plans this week to increase quantitative easing. The interest from that deb goes... back to the government. All Boris needs to do is change that debts status. Never to be paid back, but interest to be paid forever. A circle will be formed and 50% of uk debt will effectively disappear.
Firstly, The BoE owns 25% not 50%. Secondly, writing the debt of would lead to hyperinflation. Dont worry, YOU (and I) will pay for it in taxes and inflation. For the rest of our lives.
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Old 3rd Nov 2020, 21:00
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QE hit £745bn in summer, with more to come. Out of a total debt pile that has just jumped to £2tn in short order. Im not suggesting the debt is written off, but QE is made firm, and locked in for long term. Cost of the debt is essentially zero as interest is paid back to the exchequer.

If hyperinflation was a risk then it would have happened already, as the money is already ‘printed’ and those forces have already been released. Fortunately the deflationary pressures over the last decade have countered that and created this opportunity.
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Old 3rd Nov 2020, 21:53
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Originally Posted by hulahoop7
QE hit £745bn in summer, with more to come. Out of a total debt pile that has just jumped to £2tn in short order. Im not suggesting the debt is written off, but QE is made firm, and locked in for long term. Cost of the debt is essentially zero as interest is paid back to the exchequer.

If hyperinflation was a risk then it would have happened already, as the money is already ‘printed’ and those forces have already been released. Fortunately the deflationary pressures over the last decade have countered that and created this opportunity.
When last I looked, the BoE raises money (to lend to HMG) by selling government bonds, which are essentially a promise to repay the loan with a guaranteed interest rate. The lower the likelihood of the principal being repaid, the higher the interest rate on the bond.

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Old 4th Nov 2020, 10:53
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Markets are great until the sentiment changes (overnight) and they won't lend you a thing and the rates on your debt go through the roof
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 11:25
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Chaps,

What are your thoughts on flying training and the likelihood of a move to buy additional assets, especially with regards to fixed wing? Multi-Engine seems to be the one suffering the most here - only four airframes used to supply aircrew across the most varied of the three flying streams. It just seems wrong to me.
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 13:53
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Originally Posted by BVRAAM
The Americans had specifically requested the F3 be deployed during the beginning stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom, because it was more capable than anything they had in countering a High Fast Flyer threat, in the form of the Iraqi MiG-31 Foxhounds. More so than the F-14.

Just because the RAF tried to use the F.3 in a role for which it was not designed, as you say, does not mean it was an ineffective platform. It was amazing at doing the job that it was designed to do.
Where on earth did you get that from? The F3 with AMRAAM was as capable as many of the other AMRAAM shooters against a high and fast target - the F14D was equally as capable and more so AIM-54.

You need to stop posting hoop on this forum. You are obviously a non-military individual looking at your other posts (which are equal “hoop”).
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 14:30
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He's a wannabe who has re-appeared again.
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 15:13
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Come on guys - lets lay off the abuse

Now to the question

"What are your thoughts on flying training and the likelihood of a move to buy additional assets, especially with regards to fixed wing?"

No one has mentioned training at all in regards to the Review - TBH its probably not even on the radar . No doubt the view will be that its probably going to be that it works now and we're not going to spend another dollar on it that we don't have to. This review will be about cuts to conventional forces not more of them................
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 16:45
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Come on guys - lets lay off the abuse

Now to the question

"What are your thoughts on flying training and the likelihood of a move to buy additional assets, especially with regards to fixed wing?"

No one has mentioned training at all in regards to the Review - TBH its probably not even on the radar . No doubt the view will be that its probably going to be that it works now and we're not going to spend another dollar on it that we don't have to. This review will be about cuts to conventional forces not more of them................
Do you think the PM will win the argument with the Treasury with regards to securing more funding?

A year ago I'd have said yes, but we've spent quite a lot of money on mitigating the consequences of the pandemic.
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Old 4th Nov 2020, 20:36
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Originally Posted by BVRAAM
Do you think the PM will win the argument with the Treasury with regards to securing more funding?

A year ago I'd have said yes, but we've spent quite a lot of money on mitigating the consequences of the pandemic.

How on earth do you know that the PM is arguing with the Treasury? You do know that they work for him?

As to multi-engine training, there are FIVE Phenom T1 plus the supplementary L3 contract.

An additional four Texan T1's were just delivered to Valley, and another 4 Juno or Jupiters, no idea which, have gone to Shawbury/Valley, so there is investment taking place.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 07:46
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pr00ne - sadly the infiltration of walts and wannabes has been the death of this forum over a number of years. It really can’t claim to be:

A forum for the professionals who fly military hardware. Also for the backroom boys and girls who support the flying and maintain the equipment, and without whom nothing would ever leave the ground. All armies, navies and air forces of the world equally welcome here.

The only way to recover it, would be to make it private and have some gatekeepers who only admit on production of evidence of the above. There is a forum for RAF Aircrew only on the Defence Gateway that nearly half the current cadre are using.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 08:00
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LJ - that pass was sold years ago......................... you'd also cut out all the old hands who don't fly anymore but who are a mine of wonderful stories and information.

"How on earth do you know that the PM is arguing with the Treasury? You do know that they work for him?"

Pr00ne - just page up the thread and see all the leaks in the media from various interested parties WITHIN the Govt. eg Lyneham Lads #470 5 days ago. BoJo has already fired one Chancellor and he wants to spend, the current Chancellor (like all his predecessors) doesn't - it sets up tension in the best of times (Blair/Brown for example) and in the worst of times it gets toxic quite fast.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 08:16
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
"How on earth do you know that the PM is arguing with the Treasury? You do know that they work for him?"

Pr00ne - just page up the thread and see all the leaks in the media from various interested parties WITHIN the Govt. eg Lyneham Lads #470 5 days ago. BoJo has already fired one Chancellor and he wants to spend, the current Chancellor (like all his predecessors) doesn't - it sets up tension in the best of times (Blair/Brown for example) and in the worst of times it gets toxic quite fast.

Exactly....

This isn't the first time there has been a debate within the Cabinet about how best to allocate the annual budget.

I personally admire the PM's desire to invest in defence, I just don't think £15bn p/a is realistic given our current climate.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 08:58
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A more accurate way of characterising the contest is to say that it's between the Treasury and No.10, i.e. the PM's staff. No. 10 had been supporting a multi-year settlement for MOD, which in normal times would mean the battle was won. This time, however, it seems that the currently-unsackable Chancellor went straight to the PM and 'convinced' him otherwise. At least, that's the reading of experienced Whitehall-watchers like Michael Clarke:


Last edited by Easy Street; 5th Nov 2020 at 09:33.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 09:26
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Sigh.....

The Chancellor is appointed by, and works for, the PRIME Minister. The incumbent Chancellors job, as for the rest of the Cabinet, is to deliver policy as laid down by the PRIME Minister based on the manifesto. They are not independent post holders with their own ideas, policies, plans and agendas.

Some people need to remember the other title on No. 10 Downing Street, and the PM's additional title; FIRST LORD OF THE TREASURY.

And BVRAAM, it was £15b over five years, not £15b per annum. The Chancellor has, allegedly as no-one actually knows, proposed a £1.9b increase for the current fiscal year only, in line with all other depts one year spending review. The same thing happened last year when the multi year comprehensive spending review was canned and replaced by a 1 year settlement, Defence in that case was given an additional £2b.

So the difference means that the increase will either be £3b per year for the next 5 years, or £1.9b for the next year only. Next year there will be a multi year comprehensive spending review, or another one year settlement.
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Old 5th Nov 2020, 09:42
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Originally Posted by pr00ne
The Chancellor is appointed by, and works for, the PRIME Minister. The incumbent Chancellors job, as for the rest of the Cabinet, is to deliver policy as laid down by the PRIME Minister based on the manifesto. They are not independent post holders with their own ideas, policies, plans and agendas.
I don't think you're disagreeing with my point, but I would suggest that cabinet ministers do have their own priorities; resolution of those differences in priority is precisely the PM's job and the cause of occasional Cabinet spats, sackings and resignations. In this case the PM has agreed that the Chancellor's priority outweighs those of the PM's own policy staff and of the Defence Secretary.
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