North Korea!
I believe the Phat Un is actually a pretty shrewd guy, as are his cronies, playing Trump for all its worth knowing ultimately the US will certainly not go pre-emptive given the huge risks involved.
Trump on the other hand is an utter buffoon as are Nikki Haley and the others threatening all sorts of **** only to back down.. then threaten... then cajole... then threaten... the narrative coming from the US is pretty unstable.. worrying.. but ultimately toothless.
My only real worry is the Trump ego wildcard... admittedly a long shot but cannot be discounted.
Trump on the other hand is an utter buffoon as are Nikki Haley and the others threatening all sorts of **** only to back down.. then threaten... then cajole... then threaten... the narrative coming from the US is pretty unstable.. worrying.. but ultimately toothless.
My only real worry is the Trump ego wildcard... admittedly a long shot but cannot be discounted.
do you think the fat wun wouldn't unleash his nuclear fury on the Chinese if he believed they were intent on unseating him? What's to stop him?
Isn't that the whole point of having nukes in the first place?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
NK Threaten Atmospheric ICBM Launched H-Bomb Test in Pacific
Japan braces as North Korea threatens hydrogen bomb test in Pacific
Japan must brace itself for the possible launch of a nuclear-armed North Korean missile over its territory if the regime carries out a threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean, Japan’s defence minister has warned. Itsunori Onodera said such a test could involve a nuclear device mounted on a medium-range or intercontinental ballistic missile. “We cannot deny the possibility it may fly over our country,” Onodera said, hours after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said Donald Trump would “pay dearly” for threatening to destroy his regime.
The prospect of a major escalation in tensions in the region rose after North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, said Pyongyang could respond to Trump’s recent threat of military action by testing a powerful nuclear weapon in the Pacific. Ri, who is due to address the UN general assembly at the weekend, told reporters in New York: “It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un.”
Earlier, in an unprecedented personal statement, Kim said that he was considering retaliating at the “highest level” after Trump warned that the US would “totally destroy North Korea” if Washington was forced to defend itself or its allies. Earlier this month, North Korea detonated a powerful hydrogen bomb at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the north-east of the country. The explosion caused a 6.3 magnitude earthquake that was felt over the Chinese border in Yanji.
Testing a nuclear device beyond its own borders would mark a major escalation in tensions over the regime’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Analysts said a nuclear test involving a missile could be “truly terrifying” if something goes wrong. An atmospheric nuclear test of the kind that has only ever been conducted by the US and China could pose a risk to aircraft and shipping, even if the North declares a keep-out zone, according to Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategy expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And if the test doesn’t go according to plan, you could have population at risk, too,” Narang added. “We are talking about putting a live nuclear warhead on a missile that has been tested only a handful of times. It is truly terrifying if something goes wrong.”
Speculation is growing that North Korea will add to its robust verbal response to Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday with a military provocation, possibly a test of a Hwasong-14 missile, which is theoretically capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska. Chung Sung-yoon, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said there was a “very high possibility” that Kim would follow through with a provocation of some sort.............
In a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, Kim called Trump “mentally deranged” and warned him that he would “pay dearly for issuing threats to the regime during his maiden UN general assembly speech on Tuesday......
The North Korea leader is thought to be the first of three generations of the Kim dynasty to publicly read out a statement aimed at the international community in his own name. South Korea’s unification ministry said neither Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, nor his grandfather - and North Korean founder - Kim Il-sung, had issued a similar statement.
Kim said Trump’s remarks had convinced him “that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last”. He added that he was “thinking hard” about his response, but vowed that Trump would “pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying” North Korea. “Action is the best option in treating the dotard, who, hard of hearing, is uttering only what he wants to say,” he said. “Now that Trump has denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world and made the most ferocious declaration of a war in history that he would destroy [North Korea], we will consider with seriousness exercising of a corresponding, highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.”
His lengthy criticism of Trump ended: “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire.”.......
Japan must brace itself for the possible launch of a nuclear-armed North Korean missile over its territory if the regime carries out a threat to test a hydrogen bomb in the Pacific Ocean, Japan’s defence minister has warned. Itsunori Onodera said such a test could involve a nuclear device mounted on a medium-range or intercontinental ballistic missile. “We cannot deny the possibility it may fly over our country,” Onodera said, hours after the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said Donald Trump would “pay dearly” for threatening to destroy his regime.
The prospect of a major escalation in tensions in the region rose after North Korea’s foreign minister, Ri Yong-ho, said Pyongyang could respond to Trump’s recent threat of military action by testing a powerful nuclear weapon in the Pacific. Ri, who is due to address the UN general assembly at the weekend, told reporters in New York: “It could be the most powerful detonation of an H-bomb in the Pacific. We have no idea about what actions could be taken as it will be ordered by leader Kim Jong-un.”
Earlier, in an unprecedented personal statement, Kim said that he was considering retaliating at the “highest level” after Trump warned that the US would “totally destroy North Korea” if Washington was forced to defend itself or its allies. Earlier this month, North Korea detonated a powerful hydrogen bomb at its Punggye-ri nuclear test site in the north-east of the country. The explosion caused a 6.3 magnitude earthquake that was felt over the Chinese border in Yanji.
Testing a nuclear device beyond its own borders would mark a major escalation in tensions over the regime’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes. Analysts said a nuclear test involving a missile could be “truly terrifying” if something goes wrong. An atmospheric nuclear test of the kind that has only ever been conducted by the US and China could pose a risk to aircraft and shipping, even if the North declares a keep-out zone, according to Vipin Narang, a nuclear strategy expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “And if the test doesn’t go according to plan, you could have population at risk, too,” Narang added. “We are talking about putting a live nuclear warhead on a missile that has been tested only a handful of times. It is truly terrifying if something goes wrong.”
Speculation is growing that North Korea will add to its robust verbal response to Trump’s UN speech on Tuesday with a military provocation, possibly a test of a Hwasong-14 missile, which is theoretically capable of reaching Hawaii and Alaska. Chung Sung-yoon, an analyst at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said there was a “very high possibility” that Kim would follow through with a provocation of some sort.............
In a statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, Kim called Trump “mentally deranged” and warned him that he would “pay dearly for issuing threats to the regime during his maiden UN general assembly speech on Tuesday......
The North Korea leader is thought to be the first of three generations of the Kim dynasty to publicly read out a statement aimed at the international community in his own name. South Korea’s unification ministry said neither Kim’s father, Kim Jong-il, nor his grandfather - and North Korean founder - Kim Il-sung, had issued a similar statement.
Kim said Trump’s remarks had convinced him “that the path I chose is correct and that it is the one I have to follow to the last”. He added that he was “thinking hard” about his response, but vowed that Trump would “pay dearly for his speech calling for totally destroying” North Korea. “Action is the best option in treating the dotard, who, hard of hearing, is uttering only what he wants to say,” he said. “Now that Trump has denied the existence of and insulted me and my country in front of the eyes of the world and made the most ferocious declaration of a war in history that he would destroy [North Korea], we will consider with seriousness exercising of a corresponding, highest level of hard-line countermeasure in history.”
His lengthy criticism of Trump ended: “I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged US dotard with fire.”.......
If Fat Wun carries out an atmospheric nuclear test then his goose is cooked cos the Russians and Chinese would then not be able to stand back and watch?
The Donald would probably have no opposition to him demolishing the North with his considerable assets.
The real danger is that Fat Wun surely knows this, so his test may be in the general direction of Guam....
The Donald would probably have no opposition to him demolishing the North with his considerable assets.
The real danger is that Fat Wun surely knows this, so his test may be in the general direction of Guam....
However, his last two fired off between the Japanese islands is very close to the trajectory path required to get to Hawaii.......
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Iceberg
Phat Wun might have launchers and big ka-booms but: it just happens to be a quite, quite closely guarded secret as to what else in the nature of military systems and weapons platforms he has at his disposal and as to which there are reasonable odds, statistically, of operational success if deployed. The "politics", H. Harry? - that's the part above the surface only. The prospects of something like a quasi-, or even partial, Kessler syndrome event in space systems from an atmospheric test are enough to warrant serious consideration of taking the entire military regime down, and taking it down now. Yes, pre-emptive strike.
Indeed. But it would probably be enough to allow them to turn a blind eye to any conventional strike that aimed to destroy NK?
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IMHO, yes, a blind "military" eye. Lots of shouts from UN through the "greens", league for sexual reforms and other old curiosity shops that would, however, vanish in the air in a couple of years.
Nevertheless, as discussed many times here in this thread - what to do with millions of civilians in Seoul and around? Mad hamster's conventional artillery and MLRS systems can do lots of harm even in the first round.
I cant see why russia or china would respond to NK firing an icbm and an a bomb into the pacific.... doesn't change the politics for them
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And maybe a million refugees......
The russians and the chinese would no doubt be very happy to see regime change and they know a lot more about NK than we do.. If they can't see how to do it without bringing on catastrophe why do we think we can do better?
Given how well we forecast outcomes in Iran & Afghanistan'............
The russians and the chinese would no doubt be very happy to see regime change and they know a lot more about NK than we do.. If they can't see how to do it without bringing on catastrophe why do we think we can do better?
Given how well we forecast outcomes in Iran & Afghanistan'............
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And in the background, I believe that secret squirrel talks are being held that, basically, revolve around the Norks saying to the rest of the worlds governments "Give us a gazillion dollars and we won't launch any more".
The rest of the world pays the gazillion dollars on the QT. Problem over.
Then. in 2 years or so, the Norks start the whole process again.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1BW08B
The rest of the world pays the gazillion dollars on the QT. Problem over.
Then. in 2 years or so, the Norks start the whole process again.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1BW08B
Options
1. Get the cross-hairs on fatwun.
2. Turn some of the Korean Peninsula into a wasteland.
ALL other options just buy time and make the final outcome worse, as NK gets more and more tooled-up.
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Being always skeptical about usual blah-blah of various "foreign offices" (US, Russian, China, etc), I have to admit in this particular case that military action against NK is a bad option. However, since the situation was not resolved earlier, it would not be resolved if the same policy is in use now and onwards.
Therefore, HH's words "still might be cheaper" seem to me quite wise. Germany paid hundreds B's for reunification but I doubt there is even 1% there who have regrets now.
I recall there was time during the reign of the previous Kim when NK and SK started talking, exchanging visits of family members, even some sort of joint ventures were tried. If at that time (no N-stuff yet, no ICBMs in NK) some serious efforts were undertaken to "contain" NK in one way or another, there were chances it would yield a success. Yes, the price (in USD) might be bloody high, but first, the cost would be shared among SK, Japan, perhaps US and even China and Russia. And, second, future costs to produce, deploy and operate all those PAC, THAAD and SM-3 systems would be significantly less (and still LockMart and Raytheon would survive). IMHO 10-15-20 years ago wrong forecasts from various military analysts (who wrote that NK would not have toys in the foreseeable future that it already has now) contributed heavily to the decision of doing nothing except for sanctions. Why to pay if it is all bluff? Now we see that not all was/is bluff.
IMHO, a realistic option now is to switch from anger to patience and careful hard everyday work "under the carpet", instead of escalating rhetoric promising quick and total elimination and so on. Bad fat Un is "joining the club", this is the reality. And he will fully join, in two or five years - does not matter in the long run. Is it the end of the world? No. When Pakistan was in that situation, it also looked very dangerous.
Of course, sanctions should be in place, but serious efforts should be concentrated in another direction as the current one leads to nowhere. E.g., focus on China, press them (in a strict confidence) to start actively but carefully working on erosion of the current NK regime, fostering potential alternatives and at a certain point of time replace/remove the "rocket guy". China itself,comparing times of Mao and guys in charge in XXI century - are different countries. That is, such a change is doable in that part of the planet. But neither US, nor Russia nor Europe can do that. Yes, it will definitely take not less than 15-20 years. Still better that converting the whole peninsula to a wasteland with death of millions of innocent lives and triggering other conflicts because the value of human life all over the planet would be decreased.
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Can't we convince the Islamic State that North Korea is a perfect place for them . . . Fatty-un can have them . . . all . . . free and what's more the West and the Rest would be delighted.
All the mad bastards in one basket . . .
All the mad bastards in one basket . . .
There are only two long term options.
1. Get the cross-hairs on fatwun.
2. Turn some of the Korean Peninsula into a wasteland.
1. Get the cross-hairs on fatwun.
2. Turn some of the Korean Peninsula into a wasteland.
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
It didn't work for East Germany. It was the collapse of Communism and the USSR that gave the opportunity to demolish the wall. When everyone is spying on everyone else, and radio/TV that can receive signals from the west are banned, there is no easy way to show the people of the North what they are missing, and certainly no way (at the moment) to establish a freedom movement.