Iceberg
Phat Wun might have launchers and big ka-booms but: it just happens to be a quite, quite closely guarded secret as to what else in the nature of military systems and weapons platforms he has at his disposal and as to which there are reasonable odds, statistically, of operational success if deployed. The "politics", H. Harry? - that's the part above the surface only. The prospects of something like a quasi-, or even partial, Kessler syndrome event in space systems from an atmospheric test are enough to warrant serious consideration of taking the entire military regime down, and taking it down now. Yes, pre-emptive strike.