North Korea!
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Maybe this is nothing to do with international posturing, it's just that Kim il Fatwun fancies Ivana like crazy and is doing a display of showing off his big-boys' toys hoping she will ditch Trumpie and they then run off to a life of hedonistic bliss in his new villa on the Costa North Korea?
Photonic,
Thanks for the NY Times link, some very interesting pieces in there in addition to the one you originally posted.
Amongst the available pieces is a short VLOG describing the US' missile defence capabilities. It made the cogs turn a bit more after I had been thinking whilst out for a pre-dinner walk - does the UK need to bring back the SAM capability we used to have. And by that, I don't mean reinventing Bloodhound, or buying a few more Rapier or VSHORAD systems such as we saw deployed during the Olympics. But a new up to date system capable of dealing with threats such as those posed by ICBMs or ALCMs which I suspect are more likely than sqns of BLACKJACKs and BEARs in the North Sea.
Even during my time in, our AD capabilities have been pared back, both numerically and in terms of platforms that are multirole jacks of all trade. Whilst North Korea is half a world away, and KJU hasn't specifically threatened the UK mainland - yet, that half the world away shrinks somewhat if you lob an ICBM over the Pole. Even if we were to rely on US interceptors in Alaska to cover off the Polar route, that is but one threat. I can imagine Iran will be watching how this plays out very carefully and who's to say that other threats won't emerge in the coming years. Those who were until recently touting Afghanistan as 'the war rather than a war', were I fear sucked into what in reality was a low level policing action; there are far greater potential existential threats out there. Are we match fit AD wise across the full spectrum of threats? (a hypothetical question rather than asking for specific detail).
Thanks for the NY Times link, some very interesting pieces in there in addition to the one you originally posted.
Amongst the available pieces is a short VLOG describing the US' missile defence capabilities. It made the cogs turn a bit more after I had been thinking whilst out for a pre-dinner walk - does the UK need to bring back the SAM capability we used to have. And by that, I don't mean reinventing Bloodhound, or buying a few more Rapier or VSHORAD systems such as we saw deployed during the Olympics. But a new up to date system capable of dealing with threats such as those posed by ICBMs or ALCMs which I suspect are more likely than sqns of BLACKJACKs and BEARs in the North Sea.
Even during my time in, our AD capabilities have been pared back, both numerically and in terms of platforms that are multirole jacks of all trade. Whilst North Korea is half a world away, and KJU hasn't specifically threatened the UK mainland - yet, that half the world away shrinks somewhat if you lob an ICBM over the Pole. Even if we were to rely on US interceptors in Alaska to cover off the Polar route, that is but one threat. I can imagine Iran will be watching how this plays out very carefully and who's to say that other threats won't emerge in the coming years. Those who were until recently touting Afghanistan as 'the war rather than a war', were I fear sucked into what in reality was a low level policing action; there are far greater potential existential threats out there. Are we match fit AD wise across the full spectrum of threats? (a hypothetical question rather than asking for specific detail).
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Maybe this is a case where having a president who's nuts is an advantage. "Our Fat One is crazier than your Fat Wun." Let them be the sane ones for a change.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Following on from MPN, as very few of the population will have any memory of life before war, would they have any vestiges of free will to become refugees, or if they do, would they dare as it would be disloyal to the leadership with all that entails.
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
New development as we speak.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.
Covert movement of rocket to west coast.
One thing no-one's opined on so far, is what the plan might be after a conventional US strike.
A few days of carnage as Seoul's northern suburbs are shelled.
Perhaps a successful ballistic missile or three launched at other SK cities, or Japan, or Guam.
Tens of thousands dead.
Before the North's army is laregly obliterated and Kim and team taken out.
And then...
Mass refugee exodus to China?
Would the US and SK occupy the North - particularly after the disaster of Iraq?
Would there be any appetite from SK to re-unify?
Would the Chinese invade to stop them?
Presumably Putin wouldn't want a bar of the issue...
A few days of carnage as Seoul's northern suburbs are shelled.
Perhaps a successful ballistic missile or three launched at other SK cities, or Japan, or Guam.
Tens of thousands dead.
Before the North's army is laregly obliterated and Kim and team taken out.
And then...
Mass refugee exodus to China?
Would the US and SK occupy the North - particularly after the disaster of Iraq?
Would there be any appetite from SK to re-unify?
Would the Chinese invade to stop them?
Presumably Putin wouldn't want a bar of the issue...
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
These are not unwilling Arab conscripts and the terrain is not ideal open desert. Think Afg writ large with well equipped troops possibly well trained and fanatical fighting for the only life they know.
We might like to think they are an oppressed people hoping for salvation from American cruise missiles but we thought that of Iraq, Syria etc and have forgotten Vietnam.
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It is being said that Kim Jun Il is taking note of what happened to Ghadafi as regards regime change and going nuclear is his way of protecting himself and his regime. But that is not directly comparable. The overthrow of Ghadafi was triggered internally, with the west assisting with air supremacy. Saddam is a more comparable case - he was overthrown because he was actively threatening US and Western Interests. By aggressively testing missiles and carrying out nuclear weapons testing Kim Jun Il is threatening the US and thereby setting himself up as the next candidate for regime change.
We are not looking at an Afghanistan or even a Vietnam situation, and especially not an invasion. We are looking at dealing with massive troop concentrations and known nuclear facility locations. Prime targets for MOAB. How many does the US have? Is that what POTUS actually means by "fire and fury"? The recent use of MOAB against entrenched Taliban positions in Afghanistan always looked like an operational test of the weapon - and it appears to have been very effective.
We are not looking at an Afghanistan or even a Vietnam situation, and especially not an invasion. We are looking at dealing with massive troop concentrations and known nuclear facility locations. Prime targets for MOAB. How many does the US have? Is that what POTUS actually means by "fire and fury"? The recent use of MOAB against entrenched Taliban positions in Afghanistan always looked like an operational test of the weapon - and it appears to have been very effective.
Being reported here on evening news that said missile may possibly be aimed at Guam... not sure of accuracy of sources.
Trump is due to call Turnbull tomorrow morning.
Pine Gap will be essential in providing SIGINT I would imagine.
I reckon if they fired it at Guam, the US would try to shoot it down, while simultaneously striking the launch site.
MOAB? Possibly. But wouldn't this be a cruise missile conflict in early stages?
Update - for Northern hemisphere friends who may just be waking up - Putin issues a statement saying sanctions have been exhausted.
Trump is due to call Turnbull tomorrow morning.
Pine Gap will be essential in providing SIGINT I would imagine.
I reckon if they fired it at Guam, the US would try to shoot it down, while simultaneously striking the launch site.
MOAB? Possibly. But wouldn't this be a cruise missile conflict in early stages?
Update - for Northern hemisphere friends who may just be waking up - Putin issues a statement saying sanctions have been exhausted.
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New development as we speak.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.
And this after China's `stern representations' too.
Nice to see their 'covert' movement wasn't as covert as they might have wished
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"Cruise missile conflict in early stages..?" If there were to be a conflict it would make no sense for either side to have "early stages"; rather a massive all-out initial attack
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
They're paranoid and they watch the news. Everything of military value - plus the leadership - lives in deep hardened bunkers against which cruise missiles are ineffective. You need MOP not MOAB
Hmm, recollect the Japs 'moved'* all their assets to the east end of the Johore Strait before attacking on the west.
*Half a dozen trucks with lights on heading east; turn lights off, go back west and repeat until dawn. With hindsight, pretty obvious stuff but it worked.
*Half a dozen trucks with lights on heading east; turn lights off, go back west and repeat until dawn. With hindsight, pretty obvious stuff but it worked.
I think it would start out one of two ways - a precision weapon to take out the ICBM pre-launch (and hope Phat Wun gets the message), or it would be shock and awe - massive nearly simultaneous attack with cruise missiles and stealth bombers to take out the air defenses, quickly followed by nearly every available aircraft carrying as much as they can carry.
Don't fool yourself, North Korea is probably the most thoroughly mapped area on earth, with every suspected weapon site cataloged. I suspect a fair number of drones are monitoring NK as I write this (and they have pretty good night capabilities, quite different from the 1940s)
Don't fool yourself, North Korea is probably the most thoroughly mapped area on earth, with every suspected weapon site cataloged. I suspect a fair number of drones are monitoring NK as I write this (and they have pretty good night capabilities, quite different from the 1940s)
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So we will have a war in Korea, then in Ukraine/ Baltic States with Russia, another one in Syria, not forgetting Afghanistan and Irak, also with Iran of course... and maybe we should start something in Myanmar (our medias are becoming adamant that we should do something there) Quite busy in Africa too.
No wonder we will need more and more surrogates to do the job.
Shall we have enough carriers ?
And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.
No wonder we will need more and more surrogates to do the job.
Shall we have enough carriers ?
And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.
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And tdracer, OK you seem quite enthusiastic - but you go first, and we follow you.
In fact I'm going to be in Seoul next week so I rather hope it doesn't come to that.