North Korea!

[A_Van]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

Still might be cheaper than turning the korean peninsula into a wasteland........

Being always skeptical about usual blah-blah of various "foreign offices" (US, Russian, China, etc), I have to admit in this particular case that military action against NK is a bad option. However, since the situation was not resolved earlier, it would not be resolved if the same policy is in use now and onwards.

Therefore, HH's words "still might be cheaper" seem to me quite wise. Germany paid hundreds B's for reunification but I doubt there is even 1% there who have regrets now.

I recall there was time during the reign of the previous Kim when NK and SK started talking, exchanging visits of family members, even some sort of joint ventures were tried. If at that time (no N-stuff yet, no ICBMs in NK) some serious efforts were undertaken to "contain" NK in one way or another, there were chances it would yield a success. Yes, the price (in USD) might be bloody high, but first, the cost would be shared among SK, Japan, perhaps US and even China and Russia. And, second, future costs to produce, deploy and operate all those PAC, THAAD and SM-3 systems would be significantly less (and still LockMart and Raytheon would survive). IMHO 10-15-20 years ago wrong forecasts from various military analysts (who wrote that NK would not have toys in the foreseeable future that it already has now) contributed heavily to the decision of doing nothing except for sanctions. Why to pay if it is all bluff? Now we see that not all was/is bluff.

IMHO, a realistic option now is to switch from anger to patience and careful hard everyday work "under the carpet", instead of escalating rhetoric promising quick and total elimination and so on. Bad fat Un is "joining the club", this is the reality. And he will fully join, in two or five years - does not matter in the long run. Is it the end of the world? No. When Pakistan was in that situation, it also looked very dangerous.

Of course, sanctions should be in place, but serious efforts should be concentrated in another direction as the current one leads to nowhere. E.g., focus on China, press them (in a strict confidence) to start actively but carefully working on erosion of the current NK regime, fostering potential alternatives and at a certain point of time replace/remove the "rocket guy". China itself,comparing times of Mao and guys in charge in XXI century - are different countries. That is, such a change is doable in that part of the planet. But neither US, nor Russia nor Europe can do that. Yes, it will definitely take not less than 15-20 years. Still better that converting the whole peninsula to a wasteland with death of millions of innocent lives and triggering other conflicts because the value of human life all over the planet would be decreased.