Trump impact on Defence posture
If I am Xi Jinping or Vladimir Vladimirovich, at the moment I am sensing... opportunity.
How long before the first challenge to Trump's authority to test him?
Another sneaky little Baltic annexation?
A little South China sea armed confrontation - maybe a shoot down of a Japanese military jet?
I reckon middle of next year.
They'll want to find out if this new President is a paper tiger.
How long before the first challenge to Trump's authority to test him?
Another sneaky little Baltic annexation?
A little South China sea armed confrontation - maybe a shoot down of a Japanese military jet?
I reckon middle of next year.
They'll want to find out if this new President is a paper tiger.
He's said all sorts of things which will probably unravel now that he's been elected and the harshness of reality cannot be ignored. That's already happening - wall -> fence, scrap-Obamacare -> keep-it. Same may happen with foreign policy.
Actually the biggest worry is that his inevitable failure to do the things he said he will do could cause a full scale political meltdown in the USA, an end to effective federal government. That would be very dangerous.
Apparently a plan being whispered about is that there's plenty of potential for an impeachment. There's clearly a few skeletons in his cupboard (e.g. The risk of prosecution for sexual harassment). First hint of there being a court case against him will raise questions about an impeachment, and it'll presumably be the House and Senate voting on that. Both are controlled by the mainstream Republican party, who he right-royally pissed off.
Interesting though - if you read about the real potential for impeachment - he has to have done something pretty heinous, and a Republican dominated Senate and Congress might actually not be so keen - counter-intuitively.
See this article for an interesting perspective.
See this article for an interesting perspective.
The only ones talking impeachment are fringe elements who are still pissed off and haven't a clue about impeachment proceedings. I wouldn't hitch my wagon to those groups.
Yep - I reckon he's still gonna be CinC this time next year.
I suspect law and order won't melt down - but there are going to be some very ugly incidents when his voting base actually realise he was never going to be able to do what he said he would.
I suspect law and order won't melt down - but there are going to be some very ugly incidents when his voting base actually realise he was never going to be able to do what he said he would.
Have a cup of tea and calm the blood. Trump's going to have to learn on the job, just as all of his predecessors did.
Tartare makes the best point: he's going to get tested by the Russians and by the Chinese, to see if he can be pushed. Is he, Trump, thinking that far ahead? I hope so.
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Apparently a plan being whispered about is that there's plenty of potential for an impeachment. There's clearly a few skeletons in his cupboard (e.g. The risk of prosecution for sexual harassment). First hint of there being a court case against him will raise questions about an impeachment, and it'll presumably be the House and Senate voting on that. Both are controlled by the mainstream Republican party, who he right-royally pissed off.
First, Trump has never served a single day in federal office. Second, the Republican-controlled House will never vote the majority required to proceed with impeachment hearings against a President Trump. Third, the Republican-controlled Senate will never vote the two-thirds majority needed to formally remove a President Trump from office as a result of the impeachment process.
Trump is a thin skinned, volatile, tantrum throwing egomaniac with little to no interest in learning about anything significant.
If he's not insulting or threatening anyone different than him, he's on twitter whining about how unfair he is treated.
He is the most dangerous person in the world and will shortly be the most powerful.
Great combination.
If he's not insulting or threatening anyone different than him, he's on twitter whining about how unfair he is treated.
He is the most dangerous person in the world and will shortly be the most powerful.
Great combination.
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It's the usual:
Being in Opposition is easy - you can say what you like on a range of subjects and you don't have to actually do or deliver anything............
Once you are elected and 'In Power' it's a whole different ballgame - you look at the books and realize there isn't the $ to do what you want, you realize that actually there are a whole range of legal and constitutional checks and balances that stop you doing whatever you like, you find that people who you thought were your friends before and during the time in opposition actually have their own personal agendas - radically different to yours or what you thought theirs were....................... and finally, you can only blame the people who were there before you for so long before people get fed up with your whining................ and then vote you out next time around. If Trump didn't know this before then I am sure he's starting to realize it now.
Let's face it - when was the last time you saw a bunch of major changes made quickly or against public opinion in any of the 'great' democracies - Hmmm, let me think...................
I think it was Obama who recently told his wife he was the most powerful leader in the world but he couldn't get anything done. Trump will be likewise - I expect the status quo pretty much as it is now in 4 years time. The Russians and the Chinese will push him to see what he is made of.......... he will have to put up or shut up IMHO......................which will it be ?
I know what I think he'll do.................
Arc
Being in Opposition is easy - you can say what you like on a range of subjects and you don't have to actually do or deliver anything............
Once you are elected and 'In Power' it's a whole different ballgame - you look at the books and realize there isn't the $ to do what you want, you realize that actually there are a whole range of legal and constitutional checks and balances that stop you doing whatever you like, you find that people who you thought were your friends before and during the time in opposition actually have their own personal agendas - radically different to yours or what you thought theirs were....................... and finally, you can only blame the people who were there before you for so long before people get fed up with your whining................ and then vote you out next time around. If Trump didn't know this before then I am sure he's starting to realize it now.
Let's face it - when was the last time you saw a bunch of major changes made quickly or against public opinion in any of the 'great' democracies - Hmmm, let me think...................
I think it was Obama who recently told his wife he was the most powerful leader in the world but he couldn't get anything done. Trump will be likewise - I expect the status quo pretty much as it is now in 4 years time. The Russians and the Chinese will push him to see what he is made of.......... he will have to put up or shut up IMHO......................which will it be ?
I know what I think he'll do.................
Arc
From this side of the pond I see Trump as an archetypal bully. And what do bullies do when someone actually stands up to them So I for one am hoping neither the Chinese nor Russian actually do take him on because there would be a lot of teddy throwing, foot stamping and thumb sucking, but he will run away, IMHO of course
Last edited by Wander00; 17th Nov 2016 at 14:59. Reason: "t"
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Obama who recently told his wife he was the most powerful leader in the world but he couldn't get anything done.
He is the most dangerous person in the world and will shortly be the most powerful.
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Open warfare that cant be lost and is worth attempting.
Or maybe Putin and USA Trump v. PRC?
It gets the rust belt back into war production after 70 odd years of decline. It may cancel out the incredible debt?
Its totally dreamy up, comic book stuff by me just now after a good evening, but I would never discount it, at all these strange days.
Seeing Trump and his incredible rhetoric and all.
Wipe out the debt, get mainland production going...do a deal with Russia.... I mean it is so simple and plausible....
China would be militarily annihilated.
**** the dead, what's not to like?
It gets the rust belt back into war production after 70 odd years of decline. It may cancel out the incredible debt?
Its totally dreamy up, comic book stuff by me just now after a good evening, but I would never discount it, at all these strange days.
Seeing Trump and his incredible rhetoric and all.
Wipe out the debt, get mainland production going...do a deal with Russia.... I mean it is so simple and plausible....
China would be militarily annihilated.
**** the dead, what's not to like?
From a purely military / strategic perspective, that would make perfect sense HS - and perfect time - wise, too (it'd be far trickier a generation from now).
Morally / ethically, however, the thought should make any normal - minded chap feel sick.
Just as well the proposed aggressor states aren't governed by sociopaths, then. Oh, hang on...
Morally / ethically, however, the thought should make any normal - minded chap feel sick.
Just as well the proposed aggressor states aren't governed by sociopaths, then. Oh, hang on...
Or maybe Putin and USA Trump v. PRC?
It gets the rust belt back into war production after 70 odd years of decline. It may cancel out the incredible debt?
Its totally dreamy up, comic book stuff by me just now after a good evening, but I would never discount it, at all these strange days.
Seeing Trump and his incredible rhetoric and all.
Wipe out the debt, get mainland production going...do a deal with Russia.... I mean it is so simple and plausible....
China would be militarily annihilated.
**** the dead, what's not to like?
It gets the rust belt back into war production after 70 odd years of decline. It may cancel out the incredible debt?
Its totally dreamy up, comic book stuff by me just now after a good evening, but I would never discount it, at all these strange days.
Seeing Trump and his incredible rhetoric and all.
Wipe out the debt, get mainland production going...do a deal with Russia.... I mean it is so simple and plausible....
China would be militarily annihilated.
**** the dead, what's not to like?
Pro Tip: The Chinese aren't stupid. They'll flex their muscles when they are good and ready, on their timeline ... not someone else's. My view of their strategy is that they play the long game.
The Chinese get a vote on whether or not they want to go to war with anyone.
Pro Tip: The Chinese aren't stupid. They'll flex their muscles when they are good and ready, on their timeline ... not someone else's. My view of their strategy is that they play the long game.
Pro Tip: The Chinese aren't stupid. They'll flex their muscles when they are good and ready, on their timeline ... not someone else's. My view of their strategy is that they play the long game.
I dreaded the idea of HRC winning because it would inevitably have kept poor relations with Russia and the continuing attempts to get a conflict going somewhere where Neo Cons would assume it would not go hot.
GCC money being used to lobby and buy off many people across the Western World be it media and politicians.
Given Russia has been invaded by the West 3 times in 100 years and lost between 30-35 million people then any war will get hot very quickly.
Trump being elected gets a full reset on relations.
Idea that Russia wants to invade all of Europe is laughable.................... why would they want to damage their biggest Customers for Oil and Gas and to achieve what exactly ?
Anybody want a laugh is youtube John Simpson of BBC and Putin.
GCC money being used to lobby and buy off many people across the Western World be it media and politicians.
Given Russia has been invaded by the West 3 times in 100 years and lost between 30-35 million people then any war will get hot very quickly.
Trump being elected gets a full reset on relations.
Idea that Russia wants to invade all of Europe is laughable.................... why would they want to damage their biggest Customers for Oil and Gas and to achieve what exactly ?
Anybody want a laugh is youtube John Simpson of BBC and Putin.
Andy, as I see the current Chinese ambitions, it is to further anchor themselves as The Big Dog locally, which they are already. Go back to Imperial Japan and consider the "Asian Co Prosperity Sphere" idea. That's step one. They are already trading globally. They already have significant links to resources in African nations without all of the moralizing the modern West brings with them.
Jung Gwo (my spelling) aka China aka the Middle Kingdom has an eye on becoming "the Middle Empire" but I don't know how to parse that in Mandarin.
As to the debt: that is leverage for "war by other means" ...
Jung Gwo (my spelling) aka China aka the Middle Kingdom has an eye on becoming "the Middle Empire" but I don't know how to parse that in Mandarin.
As to the debt: that is leverage for "war by other means" ...
They already have significant links to resources in African nations without all of the moralizing the modern West brings with them.
One gave his view on China, they come in build roads, schools, hospitals, stay out of politics and don't try and run the country as fiefdoms for personal enrichment.
Yup they can sometimes have racist views but they ensure they build infrastructure which unsurprisingly is popular with Population and Politicans.
His view on Western Govt and Companies is they buy off a few politicians who use the Military to give Western companys what they demand and give nothing back to the people. Then then arms sellers turn up to sell arms so those in power can settle scores. Then the have the social justice warriors arriving under NGO's telling them how to run their country. Oh and he finds their racism even worse.
Not unsurprisingly him and lots of other Africans want China not the West.
Yep - China will be happy when their 5000 years of history (which in their eyes means they should be as culturally revered as the Greeks or Romans) means they are treated with the international respect and reverence they feel they deserve.
Or at least that's how it was explained to me last time I was in Shanghai.
Under Mao they apparently had ambitions regarding Burma, Laos, Northern India, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Ryukyu Islands, 300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Taiwan, South Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Bahdashan, Transbaikalia and the Far East to South Okhotsk... that's if you believe Pravda!
I think Russia is incrementally more dangerous in the near term.
Thinking they're going to invade large swathes of Europe is laughable.
But some more Baltic adventures seem highly likely to me.
Even moreso under Trump, who I think will wilt under the extraordinary pressure and seriousness of what to do if Putin marched into another neighbouring state.
Or at least that's how it was explained to me last time I was in Shanghai.
Under Mao they apparently had ambitions regarding Burma, Laos, Northern India, Vietnam, Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Ryukyu Islands, 300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas, as well as Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Taiwan, South Kazakhstan, the Afghan province of Bahdashan, Transbaikalia and the Far East to South Okhotsk... that's if you believe Pravda!
I think Russia is incrementally more dangerous in the near term.
Thinking they're going to invade large swathes of Europe is laughable.
But some more Baltic adventures seem highly likely to me.
Even moreso under Trump, who I think will wilt under the extraordinary pressure and seriousness of what to do if Putin marched into another neighbouring state.