Originally Posted by
tartare
If I am Xi Jinping or Vladimir Vladimirovich, at the moment I am sensing... opportunity.
How long before the first challenge to Trump's authority to test him?
Another sneaky little Baltic annexation?
A little South China sea armed confrontation - maybe a shoot down of a Japanese military jet?
I reckon middle of next year.
They'll want to find out if this new President is a paper tiger.
His unpredictability is of concern to everyone, including Russia and China. He's said all sorts of things about withdrawal from the Western Pacific, which has got the Japanese quite worried.
He's said all sorts of things which will probably unravel now that he's been elected and the harshness of reality cannot be ignored. That's already happening - wall -> fence, scrap-Obamacare -> keep-it. Same may happen with foreign policy.
Actually the biggest worry is that his inevitable failure to do the things he said he will do could cause a full scale political meltdown in the USA, an end to effective federal government. That would be very dangerous.
Apparently a plan being whispered about is that there's plenty of potential for an impeachment. There's clearly a few skeletons in his cupboard (e.g. The risk of prosecution for sexual harassment). First hint of there being a court case against him will raise questions about an impeachment, and it'll presumably be the House and Senate voting on that. Both are controlled by the mainstream Republican party, who he right-royally pissed off.