Trump impact on Defence posture
Thread Starter
Trump impact on Defence posture
A tricky question, but just how sincere is Trump's accommodation of Vladimir Putin? How do we imagine it will impact on NATO/Russian relations?
FB
FB
Given Trump's previously expressed view that NATO should be disbanded I guess the answer would be "dangerously".
But no doubt someone will be along explaining that Trump was only trolling, so that's alright.
PDR
But no doubt someone will be along explaining that Trump was only trolling, so that's alright.
PDR
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Often in Jersey, but mainly in the past.
Age: 79
Posts: 7,809
Received 135 Likes
on
63 Posts
Trump + Sincere = Expediency.
Will President Trump, when he gets into office, choose the former posture or the latter? Before making a prediction, I will wait to see who he gets to be his Sec Def and his Sec State. I'll also want to see who wins the Speaker of the House (money is raised in the house) scrum about to happen. Ryan may not stay in his chair.
Why Trump may retract that rhetoric.
Trump's a real estate guy. Location, Location, Location.
Having access to real estate in various parts of Europe via NATO, or bilateral arrangements, is advantageous to the US. I think that such an argument to him may get him to reconsider that position, from "value of the location" but that also may not matter.
He may pursue the 'NATO is past its sell by date" PoV and see if he can pull out, which will take work with the Senate who is in charge of Treaties. If he does that successfully, NATO ceases to exist.
As noted in another thread, loose cannon. No telling what he'll do.
Thread Starter
It would be interesting to see how his relations with Putin will pan out, if they start to firm, will they with Europe as well? I'm thinking of how the Baltic States and Poland will react in particular. What would complicate matters would be if Putin starts giving the latter 'menacing food for thought' while pressing the flesh with Donald?
I can see things starting to unravel somewhere along the way.
FB
I can see things starting to unravel somewhere along the way.FB
Surely the answer is that nobody knows, as there is no track record.
What people say before they get elected isn't normally a great guide as to future actions...
What people say before they get elected isn't normally a great guide as to future actions...
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
Of note regarding US/UK is the headline of the local newspaper , the Buchan Observer:
Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidential election
Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidential election
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Hanging off the end of a thread
Posts: 32,934
Received 2,851 Likes
on
1,219 Posts
Russia will get the ports and airfields, America will get real estate and potential holiday resort and golf course locations.
Thread Starter
Of note regarding US/UK is the headline of the local newspaper , the Buchan Observer:
Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidential election
Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidential election
FB
I suspect in certain quarters there was a sharp intake of breath followed by some drumming of fingers on tables.
Whether or not we actually invest the required 2% of GDP and haven't cooked the books by including all sorts of other associated costs, the U.K. believes NATO to be the cornerstone of Defence going forward. I think this reliance on NATO was probably the get out of jail free card in the event of a post-BREXIT economic reset and another SDSR and the need to find quick cash to buy votes in the run up to 2020.
However, behind the bluster Trump's perfectly legitimate question of why should the US foot the bill for others when they are not prepared to help themselves and their partners by investing in NATO, if we want to rely on NATO we will have to ensure our contribution isn't smoke and mirrors. Especially if Trump does decide to refocus on the domestic front which would leave the UK as one of if not the major defence player in Europe.
Whether or not the politicians appreciate this and actually start to take Defence investment seriously remains to be seen. Maybe we need Trump to call the Government's bluff before anything changes. Until then our posture will look like an unfortunate combination of hand to mouth meets knee jerk reaction.
Whether or not we actually invest the required 2% of GDP and haven't cooked the books by including all sorts of other associated costs, the U.K. believes NATO to be the cornerstone of Defence going forward. I think this reliance on NATO was probably the get out of jail free card in the event of a post-BREXIT economic reset and another SDSR and the need to find quick cash to buy votes in the run up to 2020.
However, behind the bluster Trump's perfectly legitimate question of why should the US foot the bill for others when they are not prepared to help themselves and their partners by investing in NATO, if we want to rely on NATO we will have to ensure our contribution isn't smoke and mirrors. Especially if Trump does decide to refocus on the domestic front which would leave the UK as one of if not the major defence player in Europe.
Whether or not the politicians appreciate this and actually start to take Defence investment seriously remains to be seen. Maybe we need Trump to call the Government's bluff before anything changes. Until then our posture will look like an unfortunate combination of hand to mouth meets knee jerk reaction.
FB - reminds me - nearly as good as when my former boss (DDIOT) at Cranwell in the 80s, who lived in Rauceby and had a few sheep made Air Vice Marshal -
Sleaford Standard
"Local Farmer Promoted"
Sleaford Standard
"Local Farmer Promoted"
"Mildly" Eccentric Stardriver
Aberdeenshire business owner wins presidential election
Wander00:-
Ah! That would explain a lot...
...and had a few sheep made Air Vice Marshal
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
We're just finalising the shopping list down here in Australia for when Guam is closed and you all go home from everywhere else in our backyard.
We'll have eight Virginia class boast on lease complete with ICBMs, some special TLAMs, and we really think you should start working on a special package for those JASSMs our Hornets carry.
Oh - and send some GE nuclear engineers down here please - we'll need something a little bigger than Lucas Heights.
We'll have eight Virginia class boast on lease complete with ICBMs, some special TLAMs, and we really think you should start working on a special package for those JASSMs our Hornets carry.
Oh - and send some GE nuclear engineers down here please - we'll need something a little bigger than Lucas Heights.
Trump and Republicans ran on a project defense platform to build up the military.Trump says he knows more about fighting ISIS than the generals do.That said he is buddies with Putin who considers him a useful tool so who knows. If I were a European NATO member I would be thinking seriously about vastly increasing my defense budget.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Maine USA
Age: 82
Posts: 199
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As I understand it, Trump's position isn't that NATO should be disbanded, but that members who don't meet their financial commitments to it shouldn't be able to rely on its support.
I think we'll have to wait and see; Trump was elected to 'drain the swamp' here in the US and may not be too concerned with the rest of the world. In which case, 'the rest of the world' had better see to its own defense. And really, given that Russia is much reduced from the old Soviet Union, why can't Europe take care of itself?
I think we'll have to wait and see; Trump was elected to 'drain the swamp' here in the US and may not be too concerned with the rest of the world. In which case, 'the rest of the world' had better see to its own defense. And really, given that Russia is much reduced from the old Soviet Union, why can't Europe take care of itself?
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: UK on a crosswind
Posts: 262
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As long as that EU army and EU air force doesn't include us, fine - but it will probably just be the latest in the line of the armies commanded by Napoleon I and Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel. So we should look to our own defences - our Navy and Air Force primarily.