Iran

[ORAC]

Germany orders 3 Iranian consulates to shut after an Iranian German prisoner is executed

AP: Germany ordered the closure of all three Iranian consulates in the country on Thursday in response to the execution of Iranian-German prisoner Jamshid Sharmahd, who lived in the United States and was kidnapped in Dubai in 2020 by Iranian security forces.

Sharmahd, 69, was put to death in Iran on Monday on terrorism charges, the Iranian judiciary said. That followed a 2023 trial that Germany, the U.S. and international rights groups dismissed as a sham.

The decision to close the Iranian consulates in Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich, announced by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, leaves the Islamic Republic with only its embassy in Berlin.

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by ORAC

worrying if true….

CNN: https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...003b6lu1vnybo2

Iran to carry out "definitive and painful" response to Israeli strikes, high-ranking source tells CNN

Israel’s recent attacks on Iran will be met with a “definitive and painful” response that will likely come before the US presidential vote, a high-ranking source told CNN on Wednesday.

The remarks signal a departure from Iran’s initial attempts to downplay the severity of the strikes carried out by Israel on October 25, which marked the first time Israel has openly acknowledged striking Iranian targets.

“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be definitive and painful,” the source, who is familiar with Iran’s deliberations, said.

Although the source did not provide an exact date for the attack, they said it “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election.”

CNN has reached out to the Israeli military for comment on the remarks.

If some of the reports I've seen of the results of the Israeli attach on Iran are true, Iran needs to think twice about this - seems their air defense system was left in taters by the attack (and it'll take a lot of time to resurrect that capability, especially since Russia needs to keep their own stuff for Ukraine), so they currently pretty much have their pants down...
One example here:
That's Gonna Leave a Mark: Israeli Air Force Just Stripped Iran Naked – PJ Media

[ORAC]

WSJ: https://archive.ph/6C2MS

Iran Tells Region ‘Strong and Complex’ Attack Coming on Israel

Tehran has warned diplomats that it is planning to use more powerful warheads and other weapons

[Lonewolf_50]

Two members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) died in a gyroplane crash near Sirkan, a city in the southeastern Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchistan, on Nov. 4 according to the Fars news agency.

Headline in Newsweek, not sure if details will be forthcoming. This is over by the Pakistan (and a bit of Afghanistan) border. Unkown if Baluchi irredentist factions were involved, or if it's a mishap/accident.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/18...078511035?s=61

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Researcher with the Washington Institute, believes that Iran may launch its Retaliatory Strike against Israel on Tuesday Night during the U.S. Presidential Election.

With the Attack likely to involve at least 400 Missiles aimed at Israeli Air Defense Bases and Sites, as well as Defense Manufacturing Industries around the City of Haifa. Iran is likely to utilize its “Khorramshahr-4” Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles, as well as Missiles launched by Iranian-Backed Groups in Iraq and possible Syria.

​​​​​​​Iaddition, the Iranian Army or Artesh is expected to participate, likely using its “Arash” Long-Range Attack Drones and Su-24MK “Fencer-D” Tactical Bombers, equipped with Stand-Off Weapons.

[ORAC]

According to Israeli Channel 14; the IDF and Israeli intelligence establishment are reported to be “closely watching” any and all activity by the IRGC as they consider launching preemptive strikes.

I am presuming that will primarily be on the forces reported as being deployed in Syria and Iraq for attacks tonight.

[Lonewolf_50]

Theater Ballistic Missile Defense (we were focused on the Southeaster Turkey scenario) was a project that we did some work on about thirty years ago when I was working some NATO stuff. It's a complex problem to solve.
My estimate is that if Iran wants to hit some things, they'll try for a saturation style attack with ballistic missiles.

[ORAC]

Obviously still expecting an attack, even though it obviously didn’t come last night.

Video

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/18...318107946?s=61

​​​​​​​Syrian channels are reporting a significant deployment of U.S. military assets to bases in northeastern Syria, with at least 6 C-17 and C-130 transports having landed at both Kharab al-Jir Aarbase and the Rumalyn landing zone in the last 48 Hours. The Aircraft are said to have contained Air Defense systems, American personnel, and other military equipment.

[DogTailRed2]

Now Trump is in power can we expect all these US assets withdrawn?

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

Now Trump is in power can we expect all these US assets withdrawn?

Get a clue, amigo. Trump is not in power. President Joe Biden is still in office. The change doesn't take place until January 20. Short answer is: No.
Longer answer is "think before posting."

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

Get a clue, amigo. Trump is not in power. President Joe Biden is still in office. The change doesn't take place until January 20. Short answer is: No.
Longer answer is "think before posting."

Further, Trump was a strong supporter of Israel during his first term, and a Trump presidency has to be one of Iran's worst nightmares based on the actions he took during his previous term.

[GlobalNav]

Originally Posted by tdracer

Further, Trump was a strong supporter of Israel during his first term, and a Trump presidency has to be one of Iran's worst nightmares based on the actions he took during his previous term.

That Trump is a strong supporter of anyone or anything all depends on his latest momentary assessment of what's best for himself.
He is more faithful with his enemies list than he is with his friends. His favor is fueled by incessant flattery.

[Lonewolf_50]

You are channeling John Bolton, GlobalNav, did you know that? He said something very close to what you said recently in a little snippet I lined to in the JB Russia/Ukraine thread.

Getting as much material as has already been approved is a worthy aim, which means that a bunch of people in the military (and civil service) are not going to get Christmas leave this year.

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by GlobalNav

That Trump is a strong supporter of anyone or anything all depends on his latest momentary assessment of what's best for himself.
He is more faithful with his enemies list than he is with his friends. His favor is fueled by incessant flattery.

While you are certainly entitled to your opinion, you might want to look back into what actions the US took with regard to Iran during Trumps first presidency (and contrast those to what happened during Biden).
You'll find there was a pretty stark difference.

[ORAC]

I await the `Biden reaction - if none then the eventual Trump retaliation….

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx28x187rmko

US charges man over alleged Iranian plot to kill Trump

[ORAC]

https://www.axios.com/2024/11/15/ira...earch-facility

Scoop: Israel destroyed active nuclear weapons research facility in Iran, officials say

The Israeli attack on Iran in late October destroyed an active top secret nuclear weapons research facility in Parchin, according to three U.S. officials, one current Israeli official and one former Israeli official.

Why it matters: The strike — which targeted a site previously reported to be inactive — significantly damaged Iran's effort over the past year to resume nuclear weapons research, Israeli and U.S. officials said.
.

• One former Israeli official briefed on the strike said it destroyed sophisticated equipment used to design the plastic explosives that surround uranium in a nuclear device and are needed to detonate it.….

Driving the news: One of the targets of the Israeli strike on Oct. 25 was the Taleghan 2 facility in the Parchin military complex, about 20 miles southeast of Tehran.
.

• The facility was part of the Iranian Amad nuclear weapons program until Iran halted its military nuclear program in 2003.It was used for testing explosives needed to set off a nuclear device, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.
• High-resolution satellite imagery acquired by the institute after the Israeli strike showed the Taleghan 2 building was completely destroyed.

Behind the scenes: Israeli and U.S. officials said the activity that took place recently at the Taleghan 2 facility was part of an effort inside the Iranian government to conduct research that could be used for the development of nuclear weapons but could also be presented as research for civilian purposes.
.

• "They conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't," a U.S. official said.
• Israeli and U.S. intelligence began detecting research activity at Parchin earlier this year, including Iranian scientists conducting computer modeling, metallurgy and explosive research that could be used for nuclear weapons.

Flashback: Last June, the White House officials privately warned the Iranians in direct conversations about the suspicious research activities, Axios reported.
.

• The U.S. hoped the warning would make the Iranians stop their nuclear activity, but they continued, the officials said.

A U.S. official said that in the months before the Israeli attack "there was concern across the board" about the Iranian activity at the Taleghan 2 facility.
.

• The Iranian nuclear weapons research even led the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI) to change its assessment about the Iranian nuclear program.

• The Wall Street Journal reported in August that a DNI report to Congress didn't include a sentence that had appeared in intelligence assessments in recent years, which said Iran "is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device."

Between the lines: When Israel prepared its retaliation for Iran's massive Oct. 1 missile attack, the Taleghan 2 facility was chosen as a target.
.

• President Biden asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities in order not to trigger a war with Iran, U.S. officials said.
• But Taleghan 2 was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program so the Iranians wouldn't be able to acknowledge the significance of the attack without admitting they violated the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
• "The strike was a not so subtle message that the Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government," a U.S. official said.……

[tdracer]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Scoop: Israel destroyed active nuclear weapons research facility in Iran, officials say
<snip>
.

• "They conducted scientific activity that could lay the ground for the production of a nuclear weapon. It was a top secret thing. A small part of the Iranian government knew about this, but most of the Iranian government didn't," a U.S. official said.

<snip>
"The strike was a not so subtle message that the Israelis have significant insight into the Iranian system even when it comes to things that were kept top secret and known to a very small group of people in the Iranian government," a U.S. official said.……

Wow, if this is accurate, Iran must be freaking about how good the Israeli intelligence is.

[DButler]

Of course they almost certainly assume the Israelis know EVERYTHING - especially the high level stuff.

But the history of Intelligence is that you can know something and still either mis-read the actions that are going to happen, or get your reaction totally wrong.

[DuncanDoenitz]

Thus, the difference between Intelligence and Wisdom.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50

You are channeling John Bolton, GlobalNav, did you know that? He said something very close to what you said recently in a little snippet I lined to in the JB Russia/Ukraine thread.
Getting as much material as has already been approved is a worthy aim, which means that a bunch of people in the military (and civil service) are not going to get Christmas leave this year.

GN may be channelling Bolton, however, there are serious concerns with the incoming team come January 20, 25. NATO, 5-i, and various other relationships are based on trust and sharing of intel, and last time round, it took a mere 14 days before gross breaches of trust occurred, to the level that Julius and Ethel Rosenberg could only dream of, (up until the time they took up smoking due to their 50 USC §52 tiff). Placing conspiracy theorists into the top post of the national security apparatus will likely have some allies adding new classification categories to avoid feeding their intel directly to those that flatter the CiC. On the other hand, paying a sub to MaL and visiting the boys room will give a great insight into the collection apparatus to the extent that it remains.

Selling out Ukraine and damaging NATO's interests to get a chintzy, gaudy sign over a hotel in Moscow seems to be a pretty poor trade. The next few years will be a rich source for future historians, working out if y'all there voted in Julius Caesar, or will it turn out to be Caligula.

Dolphin 17