Iran

[dctyke]

Originally Posted by judyjudy

Thats a cheesy remark!

help protect the Kurds…………

[Abbas Ibn Firnas]

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

From Starmer’s speech today

“Our priority is to protect British people, which is why ‘long before’ the US-Israeli strikes began, we had begun adding defence assets to the region ‘to defend our interests’. Throughout January and February, the UK was moving defensive assets to Cyprus and Qatar, including fighter jets, air defence missiles and advanced radar systems, to ensure the UK was "in a heightened state of readiness" in advance of any conflict. When the strikes began on Saturday, the UK ‘immediately’ put those jets in the sky and they were able to shoot down multiple drones, at least one of which was heading towards a base housing British military personnel. The UK is ‘constantly resupplying our jets and our missile stores’ and responding to allies in the region for further help”

Why on earth this hasn’t received more publicity is very strange. If true, it would have deflected a lot of criticism. If untrue…

If this was the case, is it easily corroborated?
Personally, I don't believe a word he says..

[Thrust Augmentation]

Originally Posted by Canary Boy

Why on earth this hasn’t received more publicity is very strange.

There was a junior minister talking the same bull on the BBC this morning - its the same bull that our government (of any colour) dishes out when any shortfall becomes public. A bit like Covid track & trace being up to speed, just blatant bull to make the questions stop.

[DogTailRed2]

The wider question is though shouldn't an airbase have defences?
I'm a little concerned our bases are undefended until attacked.

[DogTailRed2]

If Iran drags on for months and starts draining our missile reserves how does that impact Ukraine?
The West might be dragged into a conflict on two fronts where it's struggling to supply a country fighting on one.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Whew, for a moment, I was concerned there was no plan, not just no prospect of a plan that may have existed actually working as advertised.
Iran hasn't struck Botswana, Heard Island or Djibouti yet, but it is early in the day so, never say never.

I should prefer the plan where we line up the current crop of politicians and leaders, add a bit of negative buoyancy and get them to enter deep water to at least find application as fish food. That is only one suggestion, a 'gator farm would also suffice.

Seems to me that while ruminating over 2000 year old manuscripts that portray the same events and yet appear to arrive at conflicting conclusions anyway, is a really weird abrogation of responsibility to behave like an adult rather than a petulant child that throws their dummy out of the cot to garner some attention and to achieve their immediate aims. At least the child in the cot has an aim; plonking par avion rowdy stuff into Azerbaiyadayada seems to be obtuse.

Had thought that Vlad had already made the position clear that there was stuff all intelligent life in the universe, there being a distinct lack of it in the Kremlin, White House and sundry other halls of wisdom. When the responsible adult turned out to be Boris Johnson, you gotta wonder if we stepped into a parallel universe some time back.

The grand plan of Iran is to...
1. Repeat the glory of 80-88...?
2. Plink the back of young girls heads who take exception to wearing a Klingon Cloaking device as some male decided that was a brill idea, after all, the guys don't wear the same device...
3. Smoke your neighbours as that has always ended well...
4. Incentivise your population into reverting to the Stone Age...
5. Increase demand for prosthetics.

The argument that having defence leads to conflict, ergo no defence is the best defence seems to have run its course. Previously Gavvy Princip had shown that the law of unintended consequences probably should be considered before going out and enacting fantasies. Plinking the HOS of a nation not known for rational thought for the last 50 years just seems to be a bit.... silly, in hindsight. Seems to me that someone pulling levers is making a side bet that the demand for uranium from every country in the world from Monte Carlo, to the Maldives will increase as it becomes apparent that the only effective way to keep the peace is by having the means to mess in the rice bowl of the other team. If that was the learning point of messing with Irans efforts to set aside some buckets of sunshine for rainy days, then, well done! (being an existential threat does not obviate the need for the other player to defend against existential threats).

Personally, I find camomile tea helps understand the grand strategy that we observe in practice.

[Lonewolf_50]

fdr:
The intelligent life forms in other parts of the universe have already taken a look at what's available on Terra Firma, and have quarantined our sector of the galaxy.

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting article on the missile assets, and deployment strategy, that Iran has built up over the years. They cover the pros and cons of this strategic approach. This also makes me think back to the Scud Hunting issues from Gulf War I (Operation Desert Storm) and how the current missile hunting effort is both similar and different. I'll put it in a spoiler, it's a pretty long article.

He opens up with calling their strategy a 'blunder' and I disagree with his characterization. It's a very practical approach when one considers the use of air power by their (Iran's) primary threats. They shot over 500 missiles at various targets in less than a week, and still have a substantial inventory on hand.

Originally Posted by WSJ

Story by David S. Cloud | 3/5/2026

Spoiler

 

 

Iran spent decades constructing underground bunkers to shield its vast missile arsenal from destruction. Less than a week into the war with its two most powerful adversaries, the strategy is beginning to look like a blunder. U.S. and Israeli war planes and armed drones are circling over the dozens of cavernous bases, striking missile-carrying launchers when they emerge to fire. Meanwhile, waves of heavy bombers have dropped munitions on the sites, apparently entombing the Iranian weapons below ground in some locations.

Satellite imagery taken in recent days shows the smoldering remains of several Iranian missiles and launchers destroyed in U.S. and Israeli airstrikes near entrances to the “missile cities,” as Iranian officials call the subterranean sites. Tehran managed to shoot more than 500 missiles at Israel, at U.S. bases and at other targets in the Persian Gulf region since the conflict began this past Saturday, although many have been intercepted, according to governments in the region. There have been fewer large salvos since the first days of the conflict, a sign that the U.S.-Israeli attacks are degrading Tehran’s ability to strike back.

“We’re hunting Iran’s last remaining ballistic missile launchers to eliminate what I would characterize as their lingering ballistic missile capability,” Adm. Brad Cooper, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, said in a video briefing Tuesday. “We’re seeing Iran’s ability to hit us and our partners is declining.”

Tehran appears to have moved some of its missiles and truck launchers out of the bunkers before the war began, hoping to protect them from attack by dispersing them. Cooper said the U.S. and Israel have destroyed hundreds of missiles, launchers and drones. U.S. Central Command, which is conducting the air campaign, said Wednesday that Iran’s missile launches have dropped 86% in four days.

Analysts said it is likely that much of Tehran’s remaining stockpile of thousands of medium- and short-range missiles remains in underground bases whose locations are mostly known to the U.S. and Israeli militaries.

That underscores a fundamental flaw in the missile-city concept: “What was once mobile and difficult to find is no longer mobile, and easier to hit,” said Sam Lair, a research associate at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, a research organization in Monterey, Calif.

With Iranian air-defense batteries largely neutralized, the U.S. and Israel are keeping slow-moving surveillance aircraft flying over known missile bases in some locations—and only attacking, using manned jet fighters or with armed drones, when they see signs of activity, analysts said.

A cluster of bases near the southern city of Shiraz appears to have been struck several times, according to analysts. Commercial-satellite photos released by the Martin Center show mobile missile launchers that had apparently exited one of the underground sites into a nearby canyon were destroyed before firing their missiles. A March 2 satellite image of Shiraz, three days into the war, showed a reddish plume near one of the demolished launchers, indicating that nitric acid fuel was leaking from a missile. Several other launchers were destroyed, igniting a fire that appeared to have spread through the canyon, according to Lair.

At a base near Isfahan, a satellite on March 1 captured a photo of an undamaged missile launcher, apparently moving down the road near the facility. A crater in the road nearby suggested a U.S. or Israeli warplane tried to strike the vehicle but missed, said Lair. A photo of the same site the following day revealed evidence of later heavy bombing of several entrances to the underground facility. Debris “from bunker buster munitions can be seen around both sets of tunnel entrances,” Lair said in a social-media post. “Whether the entrances collapsed is unclear.” The entrance and nearby roads to an Iranian base near Kermanshah appeared to have been struck by heavy U.S. bombs, according to Lair, citing a March 3 photo by Planet, a commercial satellite imagery company.

Iran is continuing to attack using armed drones and sporadic missile launches. It might be holding back some of its most powerful and longest-range missiles for use as a last resort if the regime appears in imminent danger of falling. “No one can count their arsenal, which means there’s a lot of uncertainty about how long they can last, which helps them,” said Decker Eveleth, a research analyst with CNA Corp., a Washington, D.C.-area think tank.

Tehran decentralized authority for firing missiles to prevent U.S. and Israeli strikes on its military and political leadership from crippling its ability to respond. Iranian commanders have said they can quickly replace destroyed missiles by building more, though adding additional launchers is more difficult. Almost all of the dozens of missile bases are underground but have aboveground buildings, roads and entrances that make it possible to identify them from satellite photos, áccording to analysts. The Pentagon and Israel’s military have spent years locating the facilities.

U.S. air attacks appear to be focusing on bases in southern Iran, while Israeli warplanes are mostly striking facilities in the north, analysts said. The tunnel entrance to an underground missile base north of the Iranian city of Tabriz, which was visible in satellite photos taken last month, appeared to be collapsed in a March 1 photo, a sign that the facility had been targeted in airstrikes. Tunnel entrances at another site near Tabriz were damaged, a Planet image released by the Martin Center showed. Three other missile bases in southern Iran, near the towns of Khorgo, Haji Abad and Jam, have also been hit, according to analysts.

The decision to attack surface targets reflects both the large numbers of Iranian sites as well as the limited availability of bunker-busting bombs in the U.S. arsenal that could penetrate beneath the surface and destroy the underground facilities, analysts said. It also highlights the urgency for the Pentagon to knock out Tehran’s missiles early in the conflict, or at least cripple its ability to fire them, before the supply of air-defense interceptors for knocking down incoming Iranian missiles is exhausted.

“These attacks are being carried out in waves, where they destroy two or three targets at a time,” said Colin David, a former U.S. Army missile specialist and a researcher with Alma. “After multiple waves, the bases lose their effectiveness due to the loss of surface structures and launchers.”

Separating fact from fiction about the missile cities has always been difficult.
Iran released video footage in March 2025 of what it claimed was its latest large underground facility, showing senior commanders touring long, windowless corridors filled with missile-carrying trucks. The video didn’t name the location.

At some bases, Tehran has built crude underground silos for firing missiles without having to bring them into the open. A base in southern Iran near the town of Khormuj is believed to have nine underground silos for firing missiles without bringing them to the surface, according to David. Primitive by U.S. standards, the silos are little more than deep holes dug into the side of a mountain that point toward the nearby Persian Gulf, flanking a paved entrance to the underground facility. It is believed that Khormuj has a mechanical loader for moving missiles into the silos on train tracks, instead of on mobile launchers. Tehran released a video in 2022 showing a facility that resembled Khormuj without identifying the location, David said. It showed a half-dozen upright missiles moving along the tracked carousel in a cavernous tunnel.

But Iran has largely abandoned the idea of firing missiles from underground launch locations, according to Eveleth, owing to the technical difficulties of reusing silos.

[sharpend]

Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation

There was a junior minister talking the same bull on the BBC this morning - its the same bull that our government (of any colour) dishes out when any shortfall becomes public. A bit like Covid track & trace being up to speed, just blatant bull to make the questions stop.

When I was based at Akroriri the RAF Regiment had armour cars, Bofers guns, Rapier and Bloodhound missiles were there too. That was when there was no threat. Where did it all go wrong?

[TURIN]

He contrasted the slowness of the UK response with that of Greece and France, which had announced support for Cyprus earlier. Kouros said: “The French are coming. The least we expect is the Britons to also be present since, as I said, we are not only defending Cypriots on the islands.”

Did Greece and France have aircaft based in Cyprus before this kicked off?

[AnglianAV8R]

Originally Posted by TURIN

Did Greece and France have aircraft based in Cyprus before this kicked off?

No, but Greece was instrumental in the building of Paphos airport, including the military facilities. It was intended for reinforcing the Greek Cypriot side in the event of further hostilities with the marauding Turks.

[WillFlyForCheese]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Hmmmm - she looks like she's on her own. No escorts?

[Biggus]

If that is CdG I thought she was based in Toulon, so she could just as likely be on her way home as heading for the Eastern Mediterranean.

[Lonewolf_50]

An interesting article about an Iranian strategy (that was apparently featured in exercises recently) can be found at this link:
https://sundayguardianlive.com/world...hormuz-173392/

Its from the Guardian and is fairly concise, although its caveats include that of being a summary of other reports.
It would appear that they developed this to mitigate the problems they knew that they would face with America and its allies establishing air superiority (which seems to have come to pass as of this writing).

Israel-Iran War: Iran flipped the script on its defense playbook today, fully activating the Decentralized Mosaic Defense doctrine. This hands IRGC provincial commanders total freedom to call shots without Tehran’s nod. The move ramps up after US and Israel strikes hammered central command lines.

How Does Decentralized Mosaic Defense Actually Work?

IRGC splits into 31 standalone units—one for Tehran, 30 for provinces. Each acts like a puzzle piece. Commanders get full tactical power. Fire missiles? Launch drones? Guerrilla raids? Their call. No waiting for green lights. Rugged mountains and deserts turn into kill zones. “Defense in depth” wears down invaders slow.

Why Is This Mosaic Shift a Game-Changer for IRGC?

Old way: Everything funneled through Tehran. One big strike, whole army freezes.
New way: Pieces keep fighting solo. Tested in February’s “Smart Control” drills. Swarms of speedboats buzzed Strait of Hormuz. Electronic tricks jammed foes.
Now live amid real war. Resilience skyrockets.

What’s the Real Goal Behind Iran’s Rogue Commanders?

Exhaust attackers. Use terrain for ambushes. Make invasion a nightmare.
History echoes Vietnam or Afghanistan traps.
IRGC ground, navy, air all plug in.
Provinces run their show. Tehran strike? Others ramp up.
{Foreign Minister} Araghchi says it locks Iran’s endgame control.

How Did Recent Drills Prep This Mosaic Madness?

Mid-February “Smart Control” exercises nailed it. Fast-attack craft swarmed in Hormuz.
EW systems blinded radars. Decentralized orders flew without central okay. Proven ready.
Now, post-strikes, it’s go-time. IRGC’s 190,000 troops plus reserves scatter smart.

What Risks Does This Spell for US, Israel, and Gulf?

Rogue units mean surprise hits anywhere. Strait chokepoints tighten. Oil flows choke. Allies like GCC sweat.
US-Israel face endless pinpricks. No quick win. Escalation odds spike. World watches if mosaic cracks or multiplies the mess.

Q: What is Iran’s Decentralized Mosaic Defense?
A: Doctrine splitting IRGC into 31 autonomous units for resilient fighting without central control.

Q: Why did Iran activate Mosaic Defense now?
A: US-Israel strikes disrupted command; ensures ops continue via provincial autonomy.

Q: Who gets full decision power under this?
A: IRGC provincial and field commanders—no Tehran approval needed for tactics.

Q: What was tested before activation?
A: “Smart Control” exercises in February with boat swarms and EW in Strait of Hormuz.

Q: What did Foreign Minister Araghchi say?
A: Iran decides conflict’s end “when and how,” thanks to decentralized strength.

Q: How does geography play into Mosaic Defense?
A: Mountains, deserts enable guerrilla “defense in depth” to exhaust invaders.

The question that arises is: what if the invader doesn't invade?

Regardless of that question's answer, the IRGC intends to survive intact, no matter how long this war (or Operation Epic Fury, if you like) lasts.

[Martin the Martian]

A couple of questions.

Is the UK obligated to defend Cyprus? Is there a treaty that commits us to this?

If Bahrain, the UAE etc spend billions on the latest, most modern military equipment and build up huge armed forces, why do they expect the UK to turn up and defend their territory when somebody starts sending missiles their way?

[AnglianAV8R]

Originally Posted by Martin the Martian

A couple of questions.

Is the UK obligated to defend Cyprus? Is there a treaty that commits us to this?

No. We are (technically) guarantor powers but that has gone by the wayside after the events of 1974. Our only obligation is our Sovereign Base Areas which remained British territory after the island gained independence in 1960.

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by sharpend

When I was based at Akroriri the RAF Regiment had armour cars, Bofers guns, Rapier and Bloodhound missiles were there too. That was when there was no threat. Where did it all go wrong?

And at RAF Nicosia [joint civil] 1963 the Rocks were dug in on the perimeter very quickly ......... we had a Vickers MG in our back garden, next door a Bofors. The doctrine of force protection looks very thin these days if the Regiment has no AA assets. RAFG bases bristled with AA back in the day.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by DogTailRed2

If Iran drags on for months and starts draining our missile reserves how does that impact Ukraine?

Mr Zelenskyy has asked that same question recently. The answer is 'negatively' and I am sure that Mr Putin is taking notes.

The West might be dragged into a conflict on two fronts where it's struggling to supply a country fighting on one.

The leadership in various European countries would probably be better off if they took the French and German position of 2003: "No thank you, we'll sit this one out" as regards Iran, and where possible continue support to Ukraine.
Is that what will happen? I have no idea.

Originally Posted by Tu.114

There are reports that Mr. Trump desires to be consulted in the selection of a successor to Mr. Khamenei.
What does he base this wish on?

Probably his recent experience with Venezuela?
EDIT: OK, I hit the translate button, they mentioned that.

Spoiler

 

 

To be honest, questions like that are often unanswerable...as I am not sure he knows himself.

Getting back to Iran, I have an idea that the IRGC is going to have in input into whomever is put into the leadership seat...for as long as the war goes on.

There were some very good articles published in the last year about the Iranian succession process, as Ayatollah Khamenei began to show signs of slowing down and declining health. Given that there have only been two since the founding of the Islamic Republic, Khomeini and Khamenei, they may adapt and adjust how they do all of this. I doubt taking advice from Washington figures into any of that.

[SWBKCB]

From the BBC:

We can bring you an update now on UK defence operations in the Middle East.

Defence sources say:

• The UK will rapidly deploy four additional Typhoon jets to Qatar to support regional defensive operations - as Starmer mentioned earlier

• RAF F-35B and Typhoon fighter jets took part in further defensive operations overnight, including over Qatar and Jordan
• Across the UK’s bases in Cyprus, 400 additional UK personnel sent over past weeks are supporting air defence activities
• British counter-drone specialists who have worked closely with Ukrainian experts have deployed to the region

[Canary Boy]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

RAFG bases bristled with AA back in the day.

And a total waste of time, money and manpower they were. As demonstrated on multiple occasions by, to hame but one, the Banana Bomber. Much to the embarrassment of the then defence minister (‘sleepy’ Fred Mulley) when 26 Sqn RAF Regt were supposed to demonstrate our new technology. I’m sure the defence of the UK sovereign territories will now be safe in the hands of just about everybody who could possibly be involved. HMS Dragon arriving sometime next week (possibly) is a non story in practical terms, but in the political arena its a shocker!

[ORAC]

No. We are (technically) guarantor powers but that has gone by the wayside after the events of 1974.

Practically, yes. Legally, no.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk...ings/cbp-10540