Originally Posted by
Lonewolf_50
For sure.
My confidence in the competence of the Gulf nations' military is very low, however, that's based on my experiences from a couple of decades ago, so my view may be well out of date.
How is this any different from the 8 year period in the 80's where the Iraq-Iran War impacted oil tanker flow, and (my memory is hazy) about 40 tankers were taken out.
What makes today's risks heavier? (Or is it not a bigger risk, and we too soon forget?)
Yup, its deja vu all over again...
We rigged a VLCC under tow travelling east along the iron highway back in the early 80's, and approaching from the bow, there was a small back hole in the middle of the NO SMOKING "O" (the second one...). On passing behind, there was more or less nothing remaining of the after sections of the superstructure, it was a smOking ruin. The Iraqi's and Iranians certainly changed the opinion of some of that crew, and yet, the highway had no shortage of VLCC's plying their trade.
Our economies rely on energy supplies, but over time, since the early 70's we have become more adept to reacting to the volatility of the supply chain. We have also become more reactive in doing something loud about it, but really, it was ever thus, (ask Stalin about the Caucuses and Hitler's summer vacation, '41).
Disrupting the flow of oil out of the gulf becomes an own goal, Xi will not be happy with choking off his energy source, and as Iran has electronic bits and stuff to support their projected power, and their defence from rowdy stuff inbound, upsetting the customer is probably not a brilliant tactic.