Originally Posted by
Biggus
Lonewolf_50,
I suspect that the world is a much more risk averse place today than it was in the 80s,
Makes sense, in terms of how the pain is felt, and Russian crude is off the market and the insurers are pulling in their marks (or raising their fees...)
Originally Posted by
Mr Mac
My cousin served on tankers during that period, and did many transits, and indeed was on one of the ones shot up. They used to have to wait off Muscat to get special insurance clearance, and had a limited time in the Gulf while that cover was in place.
He said the missiles were less of an issue than being strafed, though given the clear lack of an Iranian Air Force now that should not be an issue, though missile guidance and indeed Drones have all changed, and improved in the intervening 30 plus years.
... he did not think the loss rate was as high as 40, he believed it to be in the low teens. He did say that he thinks you will start to see the convoying again of tankers in the not too distant future, as its just too much of an important product and choke point.
I may have lumped the 'severely damaged maybe written off' ones with the ones actually sunk. Sorry, it's been over 30 years since I presented that in a briefing.
And you are waaaaay ahead of me.
I was about to raise the topic of convoy / escorts / re-flagged vessels... but there is a difference this time around.
1. It isn't both Iran and Iraq shooting them up
2. Re-flagging them as Reagan did will attract missiles!
3. Drones rewrite the art of the possible for those attacking tankers in the Gulf.
Anyone heard about Iranian submarines? They can lay mines...with nobody the wiser until "boom" occurs.