Iran

[ORAC]

Looks like a deployment, including most of the Lakenheath wing, to join the buildup...

https://x.com/DefenceGeek/status/202...789120736?s=20

​​​​​​​UPDATE (1520Z): USAF F-35s move Lakenheath to Middle East #FreeIran

Total of 18 F-35As departed now, believed going to Jordan (Muffawaq Salti AB?) with support from several tankers, most of whom are going to Chania Airport after drop-offs.

Moves to Chania (LGSA):
KC-135T "LAGER10" 59-1464 #AE0659
KC-135R "LAGER11" 59-1475 #AE04C4
KC-135R "LAGER17" 63-8008 #AE048A
KC-135R "LAGER14" 62-3540 #AE0669
KC-135T "LAGER13" 59-1470 #AE04C3
KC-135R "LAGER15" 61-0315 #AE0237
KC-135R "LAGER12" 57-2605 #AE04FB
KC-135R "RCH465" 64-14832 #AE0394 (direct from CONUS, no receivers)
KC-135R "RCH128" 59-1478 #AE04E5 (direct from CONUS, no receivers)

Moves to Ramstein (ETAR):

KC-135R "LAGER16" 60-0324 #AE0480

Jets to Middle East, likely Muffawaq (OJMS):

F-35A "VALKYRIE01" 20-5570 #AE6B00
F-35A "VALKYRIE02" 20-5618 #AE693F
F-35A "VALKYRIE03" 19-5487 #AE675D
F-35A "VALKYRIE04" 19-5473 #AE6716
F-35A "VALKYRIE05" 20-5475 #AE6935
F-35A "VALKYRIE06" 19-5484 #AE6182
F-35A "VALKYRIE07" 19-5476 #AE6D19
F-35A "VALKYRIE08" 19-5495 #AE6361
F-35A "VALKYRIE09" 20-5608 #AE6E40
F-35A "GREEN01" 20-5589 #AE6E2D
F-35A "GREEN02" 19-5473 #AE6A6A
F-35A "GREEN03" 20-5581 #AE6B8D
F-35A "GREEN04" 20-5615 #AE69A4
F-35A "GREEN05" 20-5571 #AE6E1B
F-35A "GREEN06" 20-5600 #AE6E38
F-35A "GREEN07" 20-5605 #AE6E3D
F-35A "GREEN08" 20-5590 #AE6E2E
F-35A "GREEN09" 20-5597 #AE6E35

Jets supporting (Air Spares) but returned to Lakenheath:

F-35A "AXE01" 19-5486 #AE6A77
F-35A "AXE02" 20-5582 #AE6E26

With these additions, it will bring Muffawaq Salti Airbase's potential ORBAT to:

- 30x F-35A (LN x18, VT x12)
- 6x EA-18G (USN)
- 24x F-15E (LN x12, SJ x12)
- 12(?)x A-10C (FT x?)

And we anticipate more jets moving over from CONUS later today or tomorrow.

[ORAC]

.............

https://x.com/Osint613/status/2023147006965805155?s=20

​​​​​​​Israeli officials assess the U.S. administration is likely to request direct IDF participation in a potential American strike on Iran. - YNET

The IDF is no longer posturing for a limited flare up. It is preparing for a regional war. Seven air defense battalions are now deployed nationwide, translating to roughly 100 to 150 active launchers positioned to absorb sustained missile fire.

The Air Force is fortifying its operational backbone to ensure continuous combat capability, even under a sustained, prolonged and heavy Iranian assault.

[Lyneham Lad]

Two E-3C Sentrys en-route from Anchorage (currently over Dorset) heading to ??? Another part of the continuing build-up of US forces in the Middle East?

[ORAC]

U2 deploying to join the rest.

https://x.com/andyyyyrrrr/status/202...239006632?s=61

​​​​​​​08:13 DRAGON 51 USAF U-2/s Dragon Lady

Departed from RAF Fairford to relocate downrange/to the Middle East.
​​​​​​​
#DRAGON51 wkg Swanwick 135.150 (No Mode-S)

[Strucky]

Over the last six weeks, I would estimate the costs involved for the US forces deployment (ships, aircraft, troops, logistics, etc) is probably equivalent to the annual UK Defence Budget.

Awfully expensive if they do nothing.....

[Lonewolf_50]

By Olivia Le Poidevin

GENEVA, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Iran's supreme leader warned on Tuesday that U.S. attempts to depose his government would fail, as Washington and Tehran began indirect talks in Geneva on their long-running nuclear dispute amid a U.S. military buildup in the Middle East.

Just a few hours after the negotiations began, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that parts of the strategic Strait of Hormuz will close for a few hours due to "security precautions" while Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards conduct military drills in the world's most vital oil export route.

Might be a bit more robust than Operation Praying Mantis...if things go south.

[ORAC]

..............

https://x.com/ArmchairAdml/status/20...094524890?s=20

#USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Activity 17 February - 0930z

Total flights have risen to at least 176, with air force-related flights now being the majority. Flights from Spangdahlem, RAF Lakenheath and McEntire JNGB are headed to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, and a number of tankers have deployed overnight.

Coronet East 030 with the CLEAN tankers now appears to be for McEntire F-16s which are headed for Naval Station Rota/Moron, whereas the ROMA tankers have filed for RAF Mildenhall and are likely bringing F-22 Raptors to RAF Lakenheath today.

As hightlighted by @Andyyyyrrrr, a U-2S Dragonlady has deployed from RAF Fairford today towards the Middle East, as well as two E-3 Sentrys arriving at RAF Mildenhall this morning.

Coronet East 030 -

169th Fighter Wing Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 2x
#AE0153 63-8002 - CLEAN 33
#AE0151 57-1493 - CLEAN 23

Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 2x
#AE5BC1 16-46016 - CLEAN 32
#AE5F97 18-46044 - CLEAN 22

Coronet East 030 looks to be dragging a number of F-16s from McEntire JNGB. CLEAN 23/33 look like they'll drag them part of the way and return to MacDill AFB, with CLEAN 22/32 taking them to Spain.

Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, Jordan

Boeing C-17 Globemaster III 6x
#AE117C 02-1110 - REACH 710 (Spangdahlem Air Base)
#AE1461 06-6163 - REACH 538 (Spangdahlem Air Base)
#AE117D 02-1111 - REACH 277 (RAF Lakenheath)
#AE4F15 10-0221 - REACH 877 (RAF Lakenheath)
#AE1239 04-4129 - REACH 271 (Roosevelt Roads NAS)
#AE123D 04-4132 - REACH 536 (Biggs AAF)

Lots of deployment support now flowing into Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, flights from RAF Lakenheath supporting the 495th Fighter Squadron "LN" F-35As which deployed yesterday, as well as "SP" F-16s from Spangdahlem Air Base - although those fighters haven't moved yet.

Other Airlift Movements

Boeing C-17 Globemaster III 5x
#AE49C6 09-9210 - REACH 830 (McEntire JNGB)
#AE2FAA 08-8198 - REACH 831 (McEntire JNGB)
#AE0805 99-0059 - REACH 864 (McEntire JNGB)
#AE2FA8 08-8196 - REACH 853 (McEntire JNGB)
#AE07E9 95-0106 - REACH 893 (McEntire JNGB)

Lockheed C-5 Super Galaxy 1x
#AE0589 87-0044 - REACH 1803 (Roosevelt Roads NAS)

Five C-17 flight have positioned to McEntire Joint National Guard Base where F-16s are based, these will fly to wherever those F-16s decide to deploy. Muwaffaq Salti may be close to full, and so these may go to Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia.

Tanker Movements

Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 5x
#AE0157 58-0083 - REACH 532
#AE0598 59-1521 - Unknown C/S
#AE023C 63-8888 - Unknown C/S
#AE0651 58-0057 - REACH 288
#AE0471 57-1451 - REACH 129 Boeing

KC-46 Pegasus 1x
#AE5E08 17-46027 - REACH 292

Six KC-135s have arrived overnight at Chania Airport, Naval Station Rota and Sofia Airport. These don't appear to be on Coronets and are potentially being staged for refuelling bombers. A single KC-46 has positioned to Lajes as well.

​​​​​​​
#USAF United States Air Force - Middle East Activity (Coronet) 17 February - 1129z

There are currently 36x F-16s and 12x F-22s on the move, or about to depart towards the Middle East. 12x F-16s each from Aviano and Spangdahlem in Europe, and 12x from McEntire Joint National Guard Base.

F-22 Raptors as TREND 51 flight have departed Langley Air Force Base with ROMA tankers on Coronet East 033.

USAFE Movements

Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 4x
#AE04C4 59-1475 - LAGER 12 (Chania, "AV") (with Nicosia 124.200, confirmed with 6x F-16s)
#AE048A 63-8008 - LAGER 13 (Chania, "AV")
#AE0669 62-3540 - LAGER 14 (Ramstein, "SP")
#AE0659 59-1464 - LAGER 10 (Ramstein, "SP")

LAGER 12/13 are supporting "AV" F-16s from Aviano Air Base in Italy, and LAGER 10/14 supporting the "SP" F-16s from Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany.

Coronet East 030

Boeing KC-135 Stratotanker 3x
#AE0151 57-1493 - CLEAN 23
#AE0153 63-8002 - CLEAN 33
#AE938D 63-7976 - CLEAN 31

Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 1x
#AE5F97 18-46044 - CLEAN 22

Four CLEAN tankers are supporting TABOR 71-76 and TABOR 81-86 flight of F-16s from McEntire JNGB. They will cross the Atlantic to Spain.

Coronet East 033

Boeing KC-46 Pegasus 1x
#AE63B1 15-46069 - ROMA 01

​​​​​​​ROMA 01 has met with the first flight of F-22 Raptors from Langley Air Force Base, headed for RAF Lakenheath.

[ORAC]

............

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...898496382?s=20

​​​​​​​Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of Russia and Chairman of the State Maritime Council announced that Iranian, Russian, and Chinese warships have been dispatched to the Strait of Hormuz to conduct the "Maritime Security Belt 2026" exercise.

The announcement from Russia comes as the IRGC has told the Iranian state news agency Fars that they will partially close the Strait of Hormuz for hours today for the "Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz" exercise currently being held. Traffic at this time appears normal.

[ORAC]

Ramstein is expecting tonight (ETA 23.30) USAF E11A 22-9046 (Blackwulf02). Arriving from Warner Robins KWRB and expected to leave for ME to join the 3 already deployed.

Blackwulf was a pair, uncertain as too whether the are still a pair or one was RTB'd or diverted with a problem.

That does make 50% of the entire fleet nw deployed to the Gulf.

[ORAC]

Coronet East 033 (see posts above), towing across the F-22s would now seem to contain 4 tankers.

https://x.com/DefenceGeek/status/202...955787822?s=20

​​​​​​​4x tankers bringing 6x F-22s towards the UK presently:

KC-46A "ROMA01" 15-46069 #AE63B1
KC-46A "ROMA02" 21-46095 #AE63CB
KC-46A "ROMA03" 22-46100 #AE63D0
KC-135R "ROMA04" 57-1440 #AE023B

​​​​​​​F-22A (x6) "TREND51" to "TREND56"

[Bob Viking]

Persian Gulf

It has to be said that, if this is all just posturing, it’s a very expensive and labour intensive way of sending a message.

The question needs to be at what stage all out war becomes inevitable.

BV

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

It has to be said that, if this is all just posturing, it’s a very expensive and labour intensive way of sending a message.

The question needs to be at what stage all out war becomes inevitable.

BV

The Great War became almost inevitable once the belligerants called up reservists at harvest time, thus causing widespread problems at home. Once done, it became a case of "p1ss or get off the pot".

Is there a 2026 equivalent?

[West Coast]

Originally Posted by Bob Viking

It has to be said that, if this is all just posturing, it’s a very expensive and labour intensive way of sending a message.

The question needs to be at what stage all out war becomes inevitable.

BV

What makes you think this is all posturing? All in would be my description.

[ORAC]

………….

https://x.com/defencegeek/status/202...351186809?s=61

​​​​​​​Lajes Airport - A Bomber Fuel Station?

During Op MIDNIGHT HAMMER in 2025, at least 10 tankers operating from Lajes (LPLA) supported B-2s going to/from Iran. Tankers are starting to position there again today:

Confirmed to LPLA:
KC-46A "RCH422" 17-46030 #AE5E0B
KC-46A "RCH292" 17-46027 #AE5E08
KC-46A "RCH280" 20-46082 #AE63BE
KC-46A "RCH304" 17-46026 #AE5E07
KC-46A "RCH317" 11-46059 #AE5FA6

Unconfirmed movements LEMO -> LPLA?
KC-135RT "?" 58-0018 #AE04B8
KC-135R "?" 62-3502 #AE0377
KC-135R "?" 58-0042 #AE0375

[RAFEngO74to09]

24 of the F-16s are the F-16CJ variant (from Spangdahlem AB & McEntire JNGB) and 12 are the F-16CG with LANTIRN (from Aviano)

[RAFEngO74to09]

2 x E-3G arriving at RAF Mildenhall, UK

You Tube

[Bob Viking]

WC

Originally Posted by West Coast

What makes you think this is all posturing? All in would be my description.

I didn’t say I think it is posturing. I said if that’s what it is it’s a very expensive way of doing it.

My thoughts are that, unless this is just Donald’s way of holding the Iranians feet to the fire, war seems inevitable.

That’s another key election pledge broken. Unless team USA really can wrap it up in 5 days and Trump can claim it’s not a forever war.

I suspect any war will not be quick and it will not be without regional collateral damage.

That’s fine for someone who lives thousands of miles away but not for the many millions that live in the region.

It’s a hell of an armada and air component that has been assembled but with no obvious ground forces.

Pummelling Iran should be no problem with the assembled might. Effecting regime change and doing it without killing thousands of Iranian civilians might be trickier.

BV

[West Coast]

War by its very nature is expensive, measured in dollar bills but more importantly in blood. If talks aren’t successful, there will be war.

[Bob Viking]

Honest, open question

Is it REALLY in the USA’s best interests to start/fight/end a war with Iran.

The elephant in this particular room is that it seems to be in the interests of a different country, allied to America, in the region to have Iran obliterated.

Despite the threats of the Iranian regime does anyone really think they pose a threat to mainland USA?

Let’s just hope that, if Donald and his little friend, do manage to get rid of the Ayatollah, they don’t just start a slide towards total anarchy and destabilisation in the wider region.

Would it all feel worthwhile if the USS Abraham Lincoln and its 6,000+ crew end up at the bottom of the Persian Gulf?

BV

[dead_pan]

Presumably they'll wait for the 2nd carrier group to arrive before starting anything? So a couple of weeks tops to hammer out a deal, which seems unlikely given the scope of negotiations.

Also it can't be good for all those F35s to be out in the open in those conditions. One assumes their deployment must be time limited by such environmental factors.