Iran

[GeeRam]

Originally Posted by esscee

Last time there was a full internet blackout 4 years ago, the "authorities" killed over 1500 people I hope that does not happen again. Will be big trouble.
Suspect various aircraft are being filled up with "loot" ready for the "top lot" to flee north.

Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...?

[ORAC]

Emirates, Qatar and Turkish airlines have cancelled all flights into Teheran.

Countries which presumably have a close touch in what the situation is in the ground.

[skydiver69]

My wife is Iranian and was back in the country until last week so she was able to leave before flights started to get cancelled. She didn't see anything different about these protests than other which have happened before, except that the Bazar owners seem to be taking a more central role. They have never protested before so the loss of their support wil hurt the Government more than most things the protesters can do, however that also means that the Government might be able to appease them with some targetted measures and separate them from from the rank and file on the streets.

[Lonewolf_50]

Glad to get a 'closer to the front' perspective.
But the prospects are rather grim, at the moment:

• Iranian authorities, particularly the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), have indicated they will intensify their crackdown. The IRGC has blamed "terrorists" for targeting military and law enforcement bases and vowed to protect the governing system, calling security a "red line." The regular military has also pledged to safeguard national interests and public property. Supreme Leader Khamenei has accused protesters of acting on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump and condemned them as "mercenaries for foreigners."
• There are fresh reports of violence across the country, though an internet blackout hinders comprehensive assessment. State media reported a municipal building set on fire in Karaj and footage of funerals for security forces killed in protests in Shiraz, Qom, and Hamedan. A doctor in northwestern Iran reported many injured protesters with severe injuries, including gunshot wounds, with at least five deaths from live ammunition. The IRGC reported three members of the Basij security force killed and five wounded, and other security personnel have also been reported killed. Iranian rights group HRANA states at least 50 protesters and 15 security personnel have been killed, and approximately 2,300 arrested.
• Iran's authorities accuse the U.S. and Israel of fomenting unrest.
• Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last shah, has emerged as a prominent voice, calling for protests to broaden into a revolt to topple the clerical rulers and urging people to "prepare to seize city centres."

I've read in a few sources that most of the opposition does NOT want Pahlavi back, seeing him as an opportunist and as much a part of the problem as any sort of solution.
Foreign interference, particularly of a military sort, will (I suspect) hurt the anti regime movement more than help it.

[SASless]

What "military" option would gain the most support from outside Iran, give max boost to the people in the streets protesting, and cause the most harm to the Regime without hurting the People?

My thought would to be 1) go after the cash cow of the regime...which is probably its sales of Oil and Gas. 2) Decapitate the leadership that is responsible for internal security. 3) install yet more economic sanctions on senior members of the Regime and seek out and seize any external holdings they have. Whatever done should not harm the people on the streets but do massive harm to the select few that are benefitting from their ill-gotten Gains.

[Lonewolf_50]

SASless, a decapitation strike takes quite a bit of inside assistance. I don't think that the juice is worth the squeeze.

[SASless]

Solemani turned out well.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by SASless

Solemani turned out well.

That's not a decapitation strike run inside of Iran, that was a very well planned and orchestrated assassination of a high value target outside of his home country. (And I personally appaluded the decision to take him out given his body of work, despite the Iraqi government making a lot of public complaints about it happening in their airspace).

Originally Posted by Sobelena

'Help is on its way', Trump says

Removed, noise
T28B

Do you have any insider information as to what this "help" is?
As we are in the Military Aviation forum, I'll take the hard to refute position that any help will involve air assets, and probably space based assets.
Which may not be the kind of help that the people in Iran are looking for.

Originally Posted by Hangarless

...act quite decisively soon to help the protestors and stop the killing..

I seriously doubt that. (The bolded part).

Originally Posted by WaPo

Iran’s government disconnected its 90 million people from the internet on Thursday, in a drastic effort to quell massive nationwide protests against the regime. The internet blackout extended to a partial jamming of the Starlink satellite service, which people in Iran have been using to circumvent official internet censorship, organize protests and communicate with the outside world.

Of course they did. That's information age warfare 101. The EM spectrum is a part of the battlefield.

Originally Posted by WaPo same article, further down

The issue was escalated internally to Musk at SpaceX over the weekend, with Musk saying he is fully on board with efforts to restore connectivity in Iran and green-lit his engineers to work on a solution, according to a person familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss closed-door discussions.

“Starlink is pretty much the only way to connect, to send news out of the country,” said Mehdi Yahyanejad, co-founder of NetFreedom Pioneers, of the technology’s role for protesters in Iran. “It’s been very critical. All these videos and pictures that have come out in the past few days have been sent out through Starlink.”

And thus made themselves a target of the regime's counter measures.

[justapax]

From what I understand (which is a very limited amount of information) SkyLink is jammed but Thuraya is not because that's what most of the regime use themselves. Thuraya is basically a 2G technology, phone and text, but that all the protestors need to co-ordinate their activities.

[charliegolf]

Saudis have just made clear that no bases there can be used; nor will there be overflight through their airspace. Was in the car, not sure if any other gulf states have said the same.

CG

[T28B]

We have restored this thread to the Military Aviation forum where it began, but I will remind you all that it is focused on the military activity.
Recent political unrest is covered here, in Jet Blast.
Iran Headed For A Western Style Democratic Government?

[Bob Viking]

Here we go again

We’re seeing the same pattern of events as we did in June 2025.

US and UK pulling some personnel from Qatar military base https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c701xywwxw8o

I’d suggest it might be a little less performative and a bit more damaging this time around. Let’s just hope though that the number of incoming rockets do not outnumber the amount of patriots in and around Al Udeid. And let’s hope that the targets are all within the base.

BV

[ORAC]

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...786754091?s=61

The U.S. Air Force’s evacuation of military aircraft from Al Udeid Air Base has begun in preparation of strikes against Iran, with a steady stream of at least 6 KC-135R/T “Stratotanker” Aerial-Refueling Tankers seen departing the base in Qatar.

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[SINGAPURCANAC]

Some local experts ( ww have experience with bombing ) claim that decesion has been put forward to wing commanders so question of attack is just question of weather conditions.
So, what is the weather in the Gulf and over Teheran/ Iran?

[Hangarless]

Trump just announcing from the Oval Office, with some caution, that the Iranians have agreed to stop firing on protestors and will not execute the protestors..

I pray that it is true.

[JanetFlight]

Iran just closed its Airspace...another traffic "hole" such as Ukraine and Venezuela...
Right now only two Mahan 340 flying...

X - Formerly Twitter

X - Formerly Twitter

[Undertow]

New NOTAM

X - Formerly Twitter

Faytuks News
@Faytuks
Iran has extended its airspace closure NOTAM until 03:30 UTC (around 2 hours from now)

[Lonewolf_50]

Thank you for that update, as unhappy as it is.

[Sallyann1234]

Originally Posted by GeeRam

Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...?

Putin depends on weapons deliveries from Iran.
Would he encourage its leaders to abandon the place, when whoever takes over might not be so supportive ?

[ORAC]

Weren't there reports from a day or two ago, that several Russian AF transport aircraft had arrived in Tehran, on the suspicion that gold and other 'items' were being shipped to Moscow in preparation for Khamenei bolting north with his family...?

Not to Moscow, much to cold and unwelcoming as well as a different culture. By all accounts large amounts of cash and gold have been transferred to banks in Dubai and aircraft are on standby, just in case they are required.