Iran
Joined: Feb 2006
Aviation Qualifications: LAME
Posts: 36,137
Likes: 5,738
From: Falling off the end of the thread
He has said 2 weeks for many months over Putin’s actions and does squat except repeat his 2 weeks threat, so I take 1 week with a pinch of salt.
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
That seems pretty final
Video
[Q]: "Mr. President, what does unconditional surrender mean?"
President Trump: "Two very simple words - unconditional surrender. That means I've had it, okay? I've had it, I give up. No more.
Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there [in Iran].
[Q]: "Mr. President, what do you say to the Supreme Leader of Iran who says that they will not surrender?"
Trump: "I say good luck."
[Q]: "When does your patience with Iran run out?"
Trump: "It's already run out. That's why we're doing what we're doing. They had 60 days. Plenty of time. And they made a mistake, honestly. Their country's in ruins. So many people are dead that shouldn't be dead. It's very sad."
Video
[Q]: "Mr. President, what does unconditional surrender mean?"
President Trump: "Two very simple words - unconditional surrender. That means I've had it, okay? I've had it, I give up. No more.
Then we go blow up all the nuclear stuff that's all over the place there [in Iran].
[Q]: "Mr. President, what do you say to the Supreme Leader of Iran who says that they will not surrender?"
Trump: "I say good luck."
[Q]: "When does your patience with Iran run out?"
Trump: "It's already run out. That's why we're doing what we're doing. They had 60 days. Plenty of time. And they made a mistake, honestly. Their country's in ruins. So many people are dead that shouldn't be dead. It's very sad."
Joined: Feb 2006
Aviation Qualifications: LAME
Posts: 36,137
Likes: 5,738
From: Falling off the end of the thread
Iranian Tv the regimes mouthpiece is possibly off the air.
Joined: Feb 2005
Posts: 366
Likes: 14
From: California
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
………….
According to a US Official who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, Israel is beginning to run low on “Arrow-2/3” missile interceptors, which have been used to shoot down hundreds of ballistic missiles fired by Iran and the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen since Friday, with the US also expending interceptors at an alarming rate, using several of the US Army’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries deployed in Israel as well as Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers with the US Navy in the eastern mediterranean.
Officials and analysts still believe that Iran has more missiles than both Israel and the US have interceptors, which is why the Israeli Air Force has been heavily targeting surface-to-surface missile launchers and other launch infrastructure so much in Iran.
Officials and analysts still believe that Iran has more missiles than both Israel and the US have interceptors, which is why the Israeli Air Force has been heavily targeting surface-to-surface missile launchers and other launch infrastructure so much in Iran.
Joined: Feb 2006
Aviation Qualifications: LAME
Posts: 36,137
Likes: 5,738
From: Falling off the end of the thread
And now for the pot calling the kettle black, Zaporizhzhia comes to mind.
Lavorov said in a statement to TASS that Israel's ongoing attacks on "peaceful" nuclear facilities in Iran are illegal
Lavorov said in a statement to TASS that Israel's ongoing attacks on "peaceful" nuclear facilities in Iran are illegal
Thread Starter
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Joined: Jul 2000
Aviation Qualifications: Spotter
Posts: 24,509
Likes: 7,252
From: Peripatetic
https://archive.ph/4XLnC
Air and sea operation to bring home Israelis stranded abroad
Thousands of Israelis stran#ded abroad have started making their way back home in an exercise dubbed “Operation Safe Return” as flights #remain #cancelled and Israel’s airspace shut down amid conflict with Iran.
Six days into the military escalation that has led to regular air raid alerts in Israel due to Iranian missile and drone attacks, the country’s airport authority had begun to organise repatriation flights home, with the first planeload landing from Larnaca, Cyprus, on Wednesday morning.
Estimates say some 150,000 Israelis are abroad but wishing to return. Israel has created a committee to determine who will receive priority to do so, such as those with medical needs.
Sharon Kedmi, chief executive of the Israel Airports Authority, said: “Our aim is to bring back as many people as possible, but it is more important that they are safe. We are carrying out #assessments on an hourly basis.”
Up to 2,800 Israelis were #expected to fly back on Wednesday. “It’s a pleasure to be back in Israel,” Dror, one of the first passengers to return, told Israel’s Channel 12 after landing. “It’s better to be here,” he added. He was meant to return last #Friday, only for his flight to perform a U-turn 15 minutes before landing in Israel due to the start of the war……
Israel’s national security bureau# has advised citizens not to cross through the land borders, assessing the threat to Israelis at level four, the second-highest level. Passengers have also travelled to and from Israel by sea, including on ferries to Cyprus, a crossing that can take up to 20 hours.
The US embassy is organising #evacuation flights and cruise ship #departures for its citizens, said Mike Huckabee, the American ambassador to Israel, on Wednesday.
However, the UK has come under criticism from #stranded Britons in Israel. Although the Foreign Office now advises against all travel to the country, British citizens have been advised so far to notify the government in order to receive instructions on how best to leave…..
Air and sea operation to bring home Israelis stranded abroad
Thousands of Israelis stran#ded abroad have started making their way back home in an exercise dubbed “Operation Safe Return” as flights #remain #cancelled and Israel’s airspace shut down amid conflict with Iran.
Six days into the military escalation that has led to regular air raid alerts in Israel due to Iranian missile and drone attacks, the country’s airport authority had begun to organise repatriation flights home, with the first planeload landing from Larnaca, Cyprus, on Wednesday morning.
Estimates say some 150,000 Israelis are abroad but wishing to return. Israel has created a committee to determine who will receive priority to do so, such as those with medical needs.
Sharon Kedmi, chief executive of the Israel Airports Authority, said: “Our aim is to bring back as many people as possible, but it is more important that they are safe. We are carrying out #assessments on an hourly basis.”
Up to 2,800 Israelis were #expected to fly back on Wednesday. “It’s a pleasure to be back in Israel,” Dror, one of the first passengers to return, told Israel’s Channel 12 after landing. “It’s better to be here,” he added. He was meant to return last #Friday, only for his flight to perform a U-turn 15 minutes before landing in Israel due to the start of the war……
Israel’s national security bureau# has advised citizens not to cross through the land borders, assessing the threat to Israelis at level four, the second-highest level. Passengers have also travelled to and from Israel by sea, including on ferries to Cyprus, a crossing that can take up to 20 hours.
The US embassy is organising #evacuation flights and cruise ship #departures for its citizens, said Mike Huckabee, the American ambassador to Israel, on Wednesday.
However, the UK has come under criticism from #stranded Britons in Israel. Although the Foreign Office now advises against all travel to the country, British citizens have been advised so far to notify the government in order to receive instructions on how best to leave…..
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,515
Likes: 151
From: A better place.
Latest reports seem to indicate a strike plan has been approved, but Trump is waiting to see if the Iranians will still come to the table - ignoring the learned experience that they've been salami slicing the west for the last 10-15 years on the nuclear issue.
Also Israel definitely has a plan to enter Fordo using special forces, and have informed the US - crazy brave.If the Israelis decide to enter Fordow from the ground, using special forces to destroy the centrifuge halls, what might that operation look like?
Also Israel definitely has a plan to enter Fordo using special forces, and have informed the US - crazy brave.If the Israelis decide to enter Fordow from the ground, using special forces to destroy the centrifuge halls, what might that operation look like?
ChatGPT said:
A ground operation by Israeli special forces to enter and destroy Iran’s Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) would be one of the most daring and logistically complex military operations in modern history. Fordow is built deep inside a mountain, near the city of Qom, and is one of Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facilities. Here's what such an operation might involve, based on known capabilities and military doctrine:🔍 Mission Objectives
- Infiltrate the Fordow site undetected.
- Access the underground centrifuge halls.
- Plant demolition charges to destroy or severely disable uranium enrichment capabilities.
- Exfiltrate the team safely, if possible.
🚧 Operational Challenges
- Location & Fortification
- Fordow is buried under 80–100 meters of rock.
- Built to withstand aerial bombardment (deep-earth facility).
- Surrounded by IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) troops and advanced surveillance.
- Limited access roads and entrance points, which are likely booby-trapped or guarded.
- Fordow is buried under 80–100 meters of rock.
- Distance
- ~1,000–1,500 km from Israel.
- Surrounded by hostile territory.
- Requires covert insertion and extraction, likely without access to nearby friendly bases.
- ~1,000–1,500 km from Israel.
- Time on Target
- High risk of detection; must move fast.
- May need to neutralize security personnel and surveillance silently.
- High risk of detection; must move fast.
🪂 Possible Insertion Methods
- Airborne Infiltration
- C-130 or C-17 aircraft flying at low altitude, dropping Sayeret Matkal or Shayetet 13 via HALO (High Altitude, Low Opening) parachute jumps.
- Helicopter insertion (e.g., CH-53 Yasur or Sikorsky UH-60) if a nearby landing zone can be secured.
- C-130 or C-17 aircraft flying at low altitude, dropping Sayeret Matkal or Shayetet 13 via HALO (High Altitude, Low Opening) parachute jumps.
- Overland Infiltration
- Through Kurdish territory in northern Iraq (using Mossad or Kurdish contacts).
- Disguised as Iranian military or civilians, using months of preparation and linguistic/cultural training.
- Through Kurdish territory in northern Iraq (using Mossad or Kurdish contacts).
- Underground Sabotage
- Unlikely but theoretically possible: a tunneling operation using robotics or mining equipment pre-positioned through sabotage teams or sympathetic locals.
- Unlikely but theoretically possible: a tunneling operation using robotics or mining equipment pre-positioned through sabotage teams or sympathetic locals.
💣 Attack Tactics
- Shaped charges to penetrate the centrifuge halls from access corridors.
- Use of thermobaric or specialized explosive devices to collapse or damage tunnel structures.
- Possibly include EMP devices to damage electronics and control systems.
- Plant time-delayed explosives to allow exfiltration before detonation.
🛡️ Deception & Diversion
- Simultaneous cyberattacks to disable alarms or communications.
- Decoy drone or missile attacks elsewhere in Iran (e.g., Natanz or Isfahan) to distract IRGC forces.
- Use of Iranian uniforms, fake documentation, and fake vehicles for deception.
🚁 Extraction Options
- Exfiltration via helicopter to a ship in the Gulf or a base in northern Iraq.
- Escape on foot to a safehouse for later pickup by air or land convoy.
- In some scenarios, the mission could be considered "no-return" – with operators sacrificing themselves or preparing for capture.
🪖 Likely Units Involved
- Sayeret Matkal – elite reconnaissance and counterterrorism unit.
- Shayetet 13 – naval commandos, comparable to SEAL Team 6.
- Mossad operatives – for local logistics, disguises, and intelligence.
- Cyber Units (Unit 8200) – for surveillance, hacking, jamming.
🧭 Historical Parallels
- Operation Entebbe (1976) – Israeli commandos flew 4,000 km to rescue hostages.
- Operation Orchard (2007) – secret airstrike on Syria’s nuclear reactor.
- Iran’s own assassination ops – e.g., targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by Mossad-linked operatives inside Tehran.
🎯 Strategic Risk
- If caught or killed, operators could spark full-scale war.
- Would almost certainly be considered an act of war by Iran.
- Huge diplomatic fallout even from allies like the US or European nations.
- Extremely high political and military risk for Netanyahu or any Israeli PM.
💬 Bottom Line
A ground operation into Fordow would be feasible only under extreme conditions and with months or years of planning. It would require local assets, deception, cyber warfare, and elite special forces, and even then would face extraordinary risk. Israel is more likely to attempt sabotage or air-launched deep-penetration strikes using MOPs (Massive Ordnance Penetrators) if available, or covert means, than to risk a commando raid inside the mountain. But in a do-or-die scenario, such a raid can’t be entirely ruled out.
Joined: Apr 2008
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 1,118
Likes: 182
From: cowtown
Would using a T12 cloud maker breech the weather modification treaties ?
The B52s can accurately drop them through a letterbox from way up high far above the flying carpets .
The B52s can accurately drop them through a letterbox from way up high far above the flying carpets .
Joined: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,515
Likes: 151
From: A better place.
Further to Fordow scenarios. All this hysterical talk about radiological danger posed by bombing Fordow is rubbish.
If Uranium hexafluoride gas is released from bombed centrifuges and somehow manages to make its way to the surface, while very corrosive, it disperses within about 40 minutes on exposure to air.
If there is metallic HEU on site (suitable for pits in warheads) it's a radiological hazard requiring specialised equipment, shielding and handling to avoid danger to those in proximity.
So in summary, its not a case of loading a few nuggets of glowing HEU onto the back of a camel and disappearing into the desert to rendezvous with your terrorist mates, who can then disperse to all corners of the Middle East to build their own dirty bombs.
Grain of salt or two needed.
If Uranium hexafluoride gas is released from bombed centrifuges and somehow manages to make its way to the surface, while very corrosive, it disperses within about 40 minutes on exposure to air.
If there is metallic HEU on site (suitable for pits in warheads) it's a radiological hazard requiring specialised equipment, shielding and handling to avoid danger to those in proximity.
So in summary, its not a case of loading a few nuggets of glowing HEU onto the back of a camel and disappearing into the desert to rendezvous with your terrorist mates, who can then disperse to all corners of the Middle East to build their own dirty bombs.
Grain of salt or two needed.
Joined: Oct 2019
Aviation Qualifications: Non-Aircrew
Posts: 1,689
Likes: 1,069
From: USA
Radioactive material does not "disperse", at least to the extent that it becomes not radioactive by dilution. UF6 is a solid material at normal temp/pressure, though it's a vapor at 135ºF, so likely to sublimate in the Middle East. It's likely to form a dense radioactive dust that has a radiological half-life of 700M years. The main danger is from inhalation of dust or gas and results in lung and other cancers. The main product of U-235 fission is alpha particles which are easily stopped by thin materials. It's those alpha particles, basically helium nuclei, that are a danger for inhalation. They are like a short-range cannon that does damage by kinetic energy transfer, punching through the living cell walls in lung tissue and damaging DNA. The main hope (?) would be that the intensity of the radiation from spread of material would lower its effects below the normal background radiation.
The biggest limit to transport is to keep the concentrated mass below the critical mass; this mass depends on the amount of enrichment, but it looks like a 100 pound sphere is the limit for pure U-235; as UF6 that mass should be much larger with an atomic mass of around 350 vs plain U-235 of, yup, around 235 grams/mole. I don't know if fluorine is a neutron moderator.
At no point is U-235 "glowing." It's unlikely to even be warm. In a cloud chamber a reasonably small chunk will look interesting, but far below the activity of Americium that is used in home ionization detectors for fire alerting.
I recall reading a story of a physicist called in to look over a reactor complex storage facility who noted that while the individual buckets of material were sub-critical, the orderliness and packing on the facility floor were just about at the limit. Being really tidy can be a real problem.
If Iran was interested in dirty bombs they would have been packing this material onto warheads aimed at the Israeli defense manufacturing plants. Even "shot down" the material would continue on a ballistic path to spread on impact and leave the Israelis with an expensive cleanup. They would need dust filter masks and a decent washdown every working day for 1000 years if no other measures were taken to scoop all the dirt up and bury elsewhere.
The biggest limit to transport is to keep the concentrated mass below the critical mass; this mass depends on the amount of enrichment, but it looks like a 100 pound sphere is the limit for pure U-235; as UF6 that mass should be much larger with an atomic mass of around 350 vs plain U-235 of, yup, around 235 grams/mole. I don't know if fluorine is a neutron moderator.
At no point is U-235 "glowing." It's unlikely to even be warm. In a cloud chamber a reasonably small chunk will look interesting, but far below the activity of Americium that is used in home ionization detectors for fire alerting.
I recall reading a story of a physicist called in to look over a reactor complex storage facility who noted that while the individual buckets of material were sub-critical, the orderliness and packing on the facility floor were just about at the limit. Being really tidy can be a real problem.
If Iran was interested in dirty bombs they would have been packing this material onto warheads aimed at the Israeli defense manufacturing plants. Even "shot down" the material would continue on a ballistic path to spread on impact and leave the Israelis with an expensive cleanup. They would need dust filter masks and a decent washdown every working day for 1000 years if no other measures were taken to scoop all the dirt up and bury elsewhere.
Joined: Nov 2011
Aviation Qualifications: SLF
Posts: 2,870
Likes: 508
From: Japan
Having read Tartare's Chat GPT detailed description of Israeli tactics to take Fordow (Mordor) in Post #2014, I wonder what the presumably now-prepared Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps would/will do under that same scenario, again according to Chat GPT or other AI analysis? (Assuming they do not simply drop weapons and vanish into the desert...)
Administrator
Joined: Apr 2015
Aviation Qualifications: Military
Posts: 2,968
Likes: 1,610
From: The Gulf Coast
In answer to your question, even though I am not the authority on such things that Chat GPT is...
1. Set up an ambush.
2. Position reserves to follow up on the ambush.
3. Parade the bodies of dead enemies through the streets of Tehran.
That's a plan, I am sure others can be dreamed up.
1. Set up an ambush.
2. Position reserves to follow up on the ambush.
3. Parade the bodies of dead enemies through the streets of Tehran.
That's a plan, I am sure others can be dreamed up.