Iran

[CurlyB]

Originally Posted by BANANASBANANAS

Uranium has to be enriched with U-235 to around 3%-5% to efficiently power a nuclear power station. That figure rises to around 90% to produce a reliable nuclear weapon. I believe it was the IAEA who recently stated that Iran was at 60% enrichment. That is clearly far more than is needed for nuclear power stations, no explanation has been offered for the 60% by Iran so what conclusions would a rational person draw from this information? Factor in that Iran has stated that it would like to see Israel wiped off the face of the earth and it is not difficult for that rational person to understand why Israel may feel entitled to ‘get its retaliation in first!’

Israel has been on record saying similar things about Iran
https://www.ft.com/content/58d55e61-...d-65a56d9114f5

“Tehran will burn”

The reason th Iranians are enriching uranium to a higher U-235 portion squarely lies on Trump reneging on the JCPOA

https://www.dw.com/en/iran-israel-co...0for%20concern.

In 2015, Iran reached a landmark deal with the US and other Western countries, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The agreement limited Iran's nuclear program and imposed strict controls in exchange for the easing of sanctions. However, US President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 during his first term, criticizing it as merely temporary and failing to address Iran's ballistic missile program. The US then imposed new sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran gradually scaled back from its compliance with the agreement and significantly increased its uranium enrichment beyond the 3.67% limit set under the 2015 deal.

I presume you're referring to the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad statement about Israel?
A 20 year old quote form a man who hasn't been in power for decades is a bit of a reach to justify a war. Trump has said worse things in the last week

[Hangarless]

I hold the view that the Israelis, assisted by the US will not stop until they have absolutely destroyed any ability that Iran has to produce a nuclear weapon and that the Ayatollah and his fanatical religious regime is removed from power, one way or another.

[Andy_S]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

Well, apart from the civilians getting killed - if the Israelies are after regime change, they seem to be assuming that any replacement government will be an improvement. What if it is a worse, more rogue?

1. If so, then their military abilities will be hugely compromised.
2. Any sign that Iran represents a wider threat to the region and the Israelis will resume their campaign.

Rinse & repeat.

[West Coast]

Can't help but wonder if any nearby strongmen will look at a severly weakened Iran as an opportunity.

[RatherBeFlying]

To topple the ayatollahs, you'd need tanks and boots on the ground. It's a long way across unfriendly territory. The of March of Das Reich to D Day did not go well.

Iran Shoots Down Third F-35 Fighter, Captures Second Pilot: What Are the Implications?

Iranian state media on June 14 reported the shootdown of a third Israeli F-35 fifth generation fighter in the country’s airspace, following two prior reported shootdowns and the capture of a female pilot. The aircraft was reportedly also shot down by ground-based air defence systems, with the pilot surviving and being apprehended. This has brought the total number of F-35 pilots captured to two. Military Watch previously analysed the likely veracity of Iranian claims in detail, including the strengths and limitations of the country’s air defences and the risks to F-35 squadrons as a result of the means by which they have been employed

[West Coast]

What if the Ayatollahs are all dead? Israel won't rule out the possibility of going down that path. I can see Ayatollah number 147 on the seniority list fighting the remnants of the Iranian military for control of the country.

[dga718]

Alas the F-14s have been destroyed:

http://www.twz.com/air/irans-f-14-pe...aeli-airstrike

[Tashengurt]

Originally Posted by dga718

Like others in this thread, I have been wanting to visit Iran for decades, the Persian architectural heritage looks amazing, and having grown up in SoCal, I went to school with some Persians that escaped when the Shah was overthrown - wonderful people, and I wonder now, how many of them were connected with Grumman... but I digress!

The point of this post, half cheeky, half sincere, is: I hope the F-14s that Iran apparently still has operational were not blown up.

As one who prays for detente with the Persia, I think the symbolic power of have a USA Contingent of Peace escorted through Iranian skies by F-14s would be a profound reminder that we were once friendly, and I cannot think of a better way for us to re-establish our bonds than to have the men who delivered the F-14s (and those who built the Grumman housing in and around Isfahan) reunite with those majestic birds and the Persian men who have kept them flying. Crazier things have happened in this world!

Oops. Bad news I'm afraid.

[Andy_S]

Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying

To topple the ayatollahs, you'd need tanks and boots on the ground. It's a long way across unfriendly territory.

That's why Bibi is hoping that the Iranian people will do the heavy lifting for him.

[bahblown]

General Wesley Clark - "We're Going to Take Out 7 Countries in 5 Years"

on Youtube.... lots of blinkers on in the military these days

[Lonewolf_50]

WTF, General?
Since when did you un-retire and get back into Military Ops?
These days the General is a talking head; you are giving him more attention than he deserves bahblown .

Where ya sit determines what you see, apparently. As regards the Israelis creating air superiority over Iran...
One PoV from the Guardian:

Spoiler

 

 

In Gaza, Israel destroyed its reputation. Attacking Iran is a belated and dangerous attempt to restore it

Nesrine Malik
Losing credibility Netanyahu has acted to diminish Iran while he still can, and in doing so regain support from his allies
Mon 16 Jun 2025 01.00 EDT
382There are two ways of looking at events in the Middle East over the past year and a half. One is that the response to 7 October 2023 was a break from the past. The attack by Hamas triggered an Israeli response so vengeful that it has been impossible to fit within the boundaries set by international laws or contain geographically – the genocide in Gaza, the invasion of southern Lebanon, the occupation of the buffer zone in southwestern Syria and airstrikes across that country, and now its attacks against Iran.

Then there is the explanation that these events are part of a historical continuum. Regional peace was the result of a volatile status quo that was always vulnerable to disruption. It only looked tenable because it relied on a variety of factors that, working together, looked like a settlement. This fine balance has been tipped by an Israeli government that is now fixated on pursuing its own agenda, singlehandedly rewriting the future of the region in ways that it is unable to explain and unwilling to control.

One of the elements of this brittle peace was the presence of the Gulf powers as mediators. Gulf rapprochement with Iran was not motivated by trade or fellow feeling, but rather the pragmatic need for stability. Some Gulf states also crossed a historic red line and either recognised Israel with the signing of the Abraham accords or began a process of normalisation. Now these countries find themselves caught between two feuding sides and at risk of alienating Israel’s main ally, the US, with whom it has close military and economic ties.

The status quo also relied on suppressing Palestinian rights to a degree that everyone was happy with; everyone except the Palestinians, of course. In a sense, the Palestinian problem had also been neutralised. When the assault on Gaza began, it exposed Israel’s views and intentions to the world, raising the spectre of a new Nakba. It also brought Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis of Yemen, into play as defenders of Palestinian rights. Once Iran entered the frame, and Israel felt empowered to act without break or censure, there was no going back.

Something else has snapped – justification for Israel’s actions has been stretched beyond plausibility. With the safety of Jewish people as the rationale for unbridled support, and Israel’s importance as a close partner in a strategic region, the US and other allies have provided carte blanche for the country to defend itself. But this relies on Israel responding to any threats in a proportional way, so as not to create further instability. Israel has not only responded inappropriately to threats, it has weaponised them to such an extent that it has become a primary factor in its own insecurity, and that of the rest of the region.

Backing from allies also relies on transparency between the camps. The colossal military, economic and political cover is provided on the understanding that whoever is in charge of the Israeli government has no other motives for engaging in conflict other than securing safety for its citizens. Trust has been broken by the current prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is using the war to bolster public support for his own political career. He is not only making Israelis less safe, but further capitalising on that insecurity as he plays the role of protector.

Relations with key allies were being put to the test over Gaza as public pressure from within western countries grew, fed by constant images of starving children, charred hospitals and row after row of body bags. By opening a new front and engaging another enemy, the Israeli government has a chance at both restoring the terms ofits pact with its sponsors, and the historical narrative that it is the victim, acting in irreproachable good faith. Here it is, once again in need of support, suffering strikes and civilian casualties at the hands of a belligerent neighbour.

Stories of people dying of starvation in Gaza or of the hungry being killed while queueing for food, have fallen away from the headlines. The relentless assault on the West Bank and the expansion of illegal settlements has receded from view. The pressure that was beginning to build on Israel to let in more aid and honour a ceasefire has been replaced with the same mealy-mouthed defences that we saw in the early days of the war in Gaza, plus the same pabulum of urging “restraint”. The clock is reset.

Regarding the strikes on Iran, Israel appears to have drawn upon the lessons of the Iraq war, claiming it has acted in defence on the basis of intelligence that the world has to take on trust. How imminent was the threat? Who has the right to decide when a “pre-emptive strike” is justified? And who has the right to respond to an illegal unilateral attack? What we do know so far is that global politics is run on the basis of exceptions and different benchmarks of sovereignty. Yes, Iran has violated its nuclear non-proliferation obligations, but Israel refused to sign up to them altogether.

These distinctions in the past could be more easily smoothed over, because Israel and the US were “the good guys”, and Iran was part of an “axis of evil”. But the erosion of Israel’s and the US’s credibility as honest interlocutors, wise in their security considerations and compliant with international law, has made these campaigns less straightforward.

Here is the real war that Israel is fighting. Iran still retains a measure of political will and military capability that is too high for comfort for Israel. And so as the window of Israeli credibility closes, it becomes more necessary for it to diminish Iran’s political credibility and military capabilities. But what is the endgame? Does Israel envisage a close-ended campaign, after which it retreats, satisfied with the results? Or is that not a plausible scenario, considering the counterstrikes it has provoked. It’s all looking very Gaza-like: escalation with no end; or regime change with no plan.

Both Israel’s campaigns – the propaganda one and the one on the ground – share one thing: they regard the Middle East as a theatre for domestic politics, reputation management and experimentation in bringing about “safety” on yet-to-be-defined terms. But the region is not just Israel’s back yard. It is other people’s homes and they have their own politics, histories, populations and security needs that, increasingly, are subject to a country that has decided that only its own agenda matters.
| Nesrine Malik is a Guardian columnist. |

And one point of view from the Telegraph

Spoiler

 

 

Khamenei and his Guards are militarily defeated. The rest is up to Iranians
Operation Rising Lion has inflicted on Iran the most grievous penalty possible in Middle Eastern culture: humiliation. And the ayatollahs’ attempts to restore honour have only led to even more humiliation. Their retaliation so far has been ineffectual.

Three hundred and fifty ballistic missiles each containing half a ton of high explosives as well as more than 100 drones have killed 24 Israeli civilians and damaged or destroyed a few buildings. Each of these deaths is a tragedy, but this is hardly the devastation repeatedly promised by Khamenei and his henchmen following Israel’s pre-emptive attack. The IDF has shot down around 90 per cent of missiles fired from Iran and only about 5-10 per cent have hit residential areas.

The sporadic missile attacks we have seen so far, only 30-60 in each barrage, were always far less likely to overwhelm Israeli air defences than a smaller number of mass strikes combined with drone swarms. IDF interdiction may have prevented hundreds being fired at a time, but it seems almost as if the Iranians have been trying to show strength to their own people rather than having any real hope of inflicting severe damage on Israel.

They have a dire need to show such strength because all they have shown so far is weakness. Israel has total superiority over Iranian air space. IDF planes can fly as freely over Tehran as they can over Tel Aviv. The ayatollahs have been unable to protect even the upper levels of their military command, which has been decimated almost at a stroke. This is unprecedented in the annals of warfare.

The same goes for some of the most important nuclear scientists who should have been among the most protected people in the country. Heavily guarded nuclear sites have been repeatedly struck, as has energy infrastructure. Substantial numbers of ballistic missiles and drones have been destroyed before they could be launched. Israeli special forces have been operating on the ground in Iran with impunity and the extent of intelligence penetration of the regime and its military seems breathtaking.

An evacuation order from Israel is enough to see huge numbers of Tehran’s citizens on the move. In short, the regime has lost sovereignty over its own territory. Can it survive this and the even more powerful blows that are likely to come? Israel is a long way from the culminating point of its military domination. We have already seen protesters on the streets in large numbers, chanting “death to Khamenei” and “death to the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps]”. Multiple car bombs have exploded near government buildings.

Israel denies involvement, so who is doing it? There are many underground groups representing various factions in Iran and they will certainly be emboldened by the increasingly glaring weakness of the regime. The army, not thought to be the greatest fans of Khamenei or his IRGC, perhaps might step into the breach.

Israel is not seeking to impose a new government on the people of Iran. But as a by-product of its actions in the last few days, for the first time since 1979 it is giving an opportunity to Iranians to replace the widely hated dictators with whatever leadership they themselves decide. Prime Minister Netanyahu has appealed directly to the Iranian people to unite against the regime and free themselves from oppression, a message met with widespread enthusiasm among many Iranians.

Other world leaders should also do what they can to encourage an end to the rule of the ayatollahs that have been responsible for so much bloodshed, repression and instability, rather than more empty talk about the dangers of a nuclear Iran accompanied by contradictory calls for de-escalation.

[RatherBeFlying]

Originally Posted by Andy_S

That's why Bibi is hoping that the Iranian people will do the heavy lifting for him.

The Syrians did the heavy lifting at the cost of a gruesome toll of lives. Bibi continues to show his gratitude with air strikes.

[RAFEngO74to09]

President Trump has warned that Tehran should be evacuated immediately. Possibly because there might be fallout from a conventional attack by B-2A on Natanz nuclear facility which is only 200 miles from Tehran.

Also, 12 x F-35A and / or F-22A believed to be arriving in CENTCOM AOR with 48 hours.

[RAFEngO74to09]

President Trump leaving G7 Summit early and returning to Washington DC after the formal dinner tonight.

NSC will be waiting for him in WH Situation Room tonight.

[Chock Puller]

How vulnerable to being overthrown is the current Iranian Regime?

https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/ter...hange-in-2024/

[Hangarless]

Originally Posted by RAFEngO74to09

President Trump leaving G7 Summit early and returning to Washington DC after the formal dinner tonight.

NSC will be waiting for him in WH Situation Room tonight.

Maybe to watch the video show of a couple of Bunker Busters hitting the mark. The weekend talking heads were all out speaking about it.

Almost no news of anything else at the G7. Possibly Trump may have pre-warned the other participants but who knows.

Lindsay Graham saying tonight that it looks like we're moving to force and that we should give Israel whatever it wants in order to remove any nuclear threat which would suggest negotiating time is over.

[RatherBeFlying]

The National Council of Resistance of Iran in the article linked above certainly shows the difficulties of the current regime. Putin's Russia has many of the same problems .Then there's MAGAland perhaps higher up on the downward slope. And let's not forget Bibi.

No matter how much we all wish one or more of these deadly leaders gone, we should not forget that each has strong supporting constituencies .

Each could stay entrenched for decades or moments before a sudden collapse.

[MechEngr]

Would an interceptor missile/ SAM be able to sufficiently damage the expected bunker-buster weapon that Trump is apparently waving the flag about dropping on the Natanz nuclear facility? AFAIK the B-2 won't be completely stealthy when the doors open and isn't going to be very stealthy with an external store; that should give the defense a bit of time when all of a sudden a target appears without any previous track. Radar should be able to track the bomb, but it certainly should be visible in the far IR against the sky.

[tartare]

A Presidentially directed strike on Fordow or elsewhere appears legal under the War Powers resolution.
It'd be limited military action.
Arguably protecting US interests and /or allies - and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Trump has to tell Congress within 48 hours, and terminate action within 60 days.

[RatherBeFlying]

Pakistan and India will be glowing with the fallout.