Russia sends four SU27s to Syria
@Eclectic:
The enabling of opposition to Assad has had the effect of lengthening a civil war that started in 2011. The key enablers were a few of the Gulf States, and a few Powers from the West. Had the attempt to unseat Assad been successful quickly, the length of this civil war would have been considerably less, and likewise the human cost. Granted, another civil war (in serial) may have erupted once Assad fell and the bickering for who is now in charge began. That would have been bloodier.
What are the Russians doing?
I think they are trying to end the civil war with one faction in charge: the government who was in power when it began. For better or worse, that may stabilize the situation if enough factions give up because they can no longer bear to fight The Man.
That in turn may hasten the beginning of a national healing process, and it may not. There are long memories in this part of the world, and bringing in foreigners to help you fight leaves bitter resentments.
Russia is not acting out of altruism. There are Russian interests at stake, to include something to do with how natural gas gets to market. They already have access to that Mediterranean port in Tartus. That old relationship that goes back some decades.
I think we are seeing a good example of realpolitik in action. While it may not get a lot better in Syria, I don't think it can get much worse than the four years of intramural bloodletting that has gone on so far. Last count I saw was over two and a half million have fled the country. This war has now lasted as long as our own Civil War (US), which was the most serious bloodletting we've been involved with, in terms of what percentage of the population were both slain and involved. There are still resentments simmering here over that one.
What Putin is doing strikes me as coldly calculated, not rash.
Think about this: what kind of deal did he make with Iran and Iraq about flying his cruise missiles over their territory to aid this effort? If he can make that kind of deal, what does that say about his success in opening doors to future relationships with both nations?
I think Putin is playing the long game.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 8th Oct 2015 at 12:46.
LW 50:
I agree with you Putin is playing the long game. Apart from natural gas which is off Syria he also needs a warm water port in the eastern Mediterranean now Libya is untenable. The treaty that ensures Bospherous passage does not allow heavy naval units to transit to and from the Black Sea.
Many are writing Putin off as an unsophisticated thug, but I suspect he is a very clever and astute man, in fact, a survivor of the Cold War from his position as a Chekist in East Germany I believe in Dresden before the Wall fell. I do believe that he is indeed a student of Sun Tzu, of which unfortunately the western political class are either ignorant or disregarding the lessons.
if Turkey starts to request NATO forces to deploy in Turkey to maintain Turkish territorial integrity then we may end up in a shooting match more by accident than design. Putin has shown his determination by the use of cruise type missile, which will have cause serious consternation in the Turkish air defence control system when they were launched and not forgetting the call up of 150,000 conscripts.
I agree with you Putin is playing the long game. Apart from natural gas which is off Syria he also needs a warm water port in the eastern Mediterranean now Libya is untenable. The treaty that ensures Bospherous passage does not allow heavy naval units to transit to and from the Black Sea.
Many are writing Putin off as an unsophisticated thug, but I suspect he is a very clever and astute man, in fact, a survivor of the Cold War from his position as a Chekist in East Germany I believe in Dresden before the Wall fell. I do believe that he is indeed a student of Sun Tzu, of which unfortunately the western political class are either ignorant or disregarding the lessons.
if Turkey starts to request NATO forces to deploy in Turkey to maintain Turkish territorial integrity then we may end up in a shooting match more by accident than design. Putin has shown his determination by the use of cruise type missile, which will have cause serious consternation in the Turkish air defence control system when they were launched and not forgetting the call up of 150,000 conscripts.
I dunno about that. I'm in the camp that Vlad is very cautious but is moving forward as he senses a vacuum of power and a sees a general attitude of handwringing by the west. His calculas would rapidly change if the politicians didn't acquiesce to his actions. He's not foolish, he doesn't want an unwinnable war but he's emboldened by the lack of anything but rhetoric. I'm sure he's devastated his ambassador to Turkey was summoned to get an earful of diplomatic speak.
When he hears no and senses it really means no, I believe he'll back down.
When he hears no and senses it really means no, I believe he'll back down.
West Coast:
This situation abhors a vacuum and Putin will step in and take advantage. His alliance with Syria and Iran also provides cover for his southern territories. Eliminate your problems far from home and if you can use proxy ground forces even better.
The west is conscious of the body bag factor and too many years of military action pursued by inept politicians and the present bunch give no hope for improvement. Putin like President Xi of China are running rings round the west and the coming together of Russia and China are going to produce big problems for the future.
Remember the Chinese control a very high percentage of the worlds natural resources in particular in Africa and they produce most of the worlds Lithium and own a lot of US debt. Russia controls gas supplies to Europe and winter is coming, just needs to turn the gas off as has happened to the Ukraine and Georgia in the past or demand cash up front.
This situation abhors a vacuum and Putin will step in and take advantage. His alliance with Syria and Iran also provides cover for his southern territories. Eliminate your problems far from home and if you can use proxy ground forces even better.
The west is conscious of the body bag factor and too many years of military action pursued by inept politicians and the present bunch give no hope for improvement. Putin like President Xi of China are running rings round the west and the coming together of Russia and China are going to produce big problems for the future.
Remember the Chinese control a very high percentage of the worlds natural resources in particular in Africa and they produce most of the worlds Lithium and own a lot of US debt. Russia controls gas supplies to Europe and winter is coming, just needs to turn the gas off as has happened to the Ukraine and Georgia in the past or demand cash up front.
AP
For the most part I agree with you. I don't believe China will be a memeber of some anti US cabal unless it suits its needs. I don't see that aiding thier quest. They need a strong, prosperous US, as evidenced by thier urging the Obama administration to get its fiscal act together.
I'm not quite gloom and doom as you.
For the most part I agree with you. I don't believe China will be a memeber of some anti US cabal unless it suits its needs. I don't see that aiding thier quest. They need a strong, prosperous US, as evidenced by thier urging the Obama administration to get its fiscal act together.
I'm not quite gloom and doom as you.
Weat Coast:
China is making a lot of moves in the South China Sea in building bases on atolls around the Sprately And Paracel Islamds, where there are natural resources. An alliance with Putin would secure their 'back door' against any attack. Their development of a blue water navy and willingness to deploy it has been shown. They like the Russians are slowly professionalising their armed forces. North Korea is very much the bogey man I that area but at the moment China is supporting the regieme there.
I am not doom and gloom but a realist and America is getting to the point of not being able to simultaneously fight two major conventional conflicts at the same time.
China is making a lot of moves in the South China Sea in building bases on atolls around the Sprately And Paracel Islamds, where there are natural resources. An alliance with Putin would secure their 'back door' against any attack. Their development of a blue water navy and willingness to deploy it has been shown. They like the Russians are slowly professionalising their armed forces. North Korea is very much the bogey man I that area but at the moment China is supporting the regieme there.
I am not doom and gloom but a realist and America is getting to the point of not being able to simultaneously fight two major conventional conflicts at the same time.
America is getting to the point of not being able to simultaneously fight two major conventional conflicts at the same time.
West Coast;
Apologies, don't keep my eye on American defence policy as i should, have enough trouble with the UK's. This from the head of NATO.
Nato chief says prepared to send troops to defend Turkey - Telegraph
Just whose troops and how many from NATO states, maybe Frau Merkel and M. Hollande may want to send a couple or three divisions.
Apologies, don't keep my eye on American defence policy as i should, have enough trouble with the UK's. This from the head of NATO.
Nato chief says prepared to send troops to defend Turkey - Telegraph
Just whose troops and how many from NATO states, maybe Frau Merkel and M. Hollande may want to send a couple or three divisions.
Gentleman Aviator
The treaty that ensures Bospherous passage does not allow heavy naval units to transit to and from the Black Sea.
We've fought the Bear before,
And while we're Britons true
The Russians shall not have Constantinople!
And while we're Britons true
The Russians shall not have Constantinople!
Teeteringhead:
Until Libya fell, they had that port facility. Now they need a new one and Syria fits the bill even better being in the eastern Med.
Until Libya fell, they had that port facility. Now they need a new one and Syria fits the bill even better being in the eastern Med.
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One helicopter shot down. Rebels used TOW missile.
Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0S215F20151008
Not sure if Russian or Syrian.
But Syrians don't normally fly low and the Russians have been.
Also reports of a second one shot down.
And a third!
Sounds like the rebels changed tactics overnight.
Reuters: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0S215F20151008
Not sure if Russian or Syrian.
But Syrians don't normally fly low and the Russians have been.
Also reports of a second one shot down.
And a third!
Sounds like the rebels changed tactics overnight.
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During the Russian occupation of Afghanistan they found that helicopters were a bit of an Achilles heel when facing terrorists armed with Stinger.
Now they are facing terrorists armed with Grail.
One wonders what level of losses they will regard as an acceptable operational risk. One also wonders what will happen to aircrew morale when the inevitable happens and one or more is taken by IS and subjected to their peculiar form of barbarity.
Now they are facing terrorists armed with Grail.
One wonders what level of losses they will regard as an acceptable operational risk. One also wonders what will happen to aircrew morale when the inevitable happens and one or more is taken by IS and subjected to their peculiar form of barbarity.
Apologies, don't keep my eye on American defence policy as i should, have enough trouble with the UK's. This from the head of NATO.
Nato chief says prepared to send troops to defend Turkey - Telegraph
Just whose troops and how many from NATO states, maybe Frau Merkel and M. Hollande may want to send a couple or three divisions.
Nato chief says prepared to send troops to defend Turkey - Telegraph
Just whose troops and how many from NATO states, maybe Frau Merkel and M. Hollande may want to send a couple or three divisions.
"We can't accept the current situation. Russia's explanations on the air space violations are not convincing," the Turkish daily Sabah and others quoted Mr Erdogan as telling reporters as he flew to Japan for an official visit.
"We are Russia's number one natural gas consumer. Losing Turkey would be a serious loss for Russia. If necessary, Turkey can get its natural gas from many different places," he said.
"We are Russia's number one natural gas consumer. Losing Turkey would be a serious loss for Russia. If necessary, Turkey can get its natural gas from many different places," he said.
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Sounds like a measured and proportionate response to a very minor and quite harmless illegal incursion which was probably negligent and accidental rather than aggressive.
Hit Putin's friends in the pocket where it hurts.
Edited to add:
One wonders whether the Russians will be quite so sanguine next time Turkey sends aircraft into Syrian airspace to whack Kurdish terrorists.
Hit Putin's friends in the pocket where it hurts.
Edited to add:
One wonders whether the Russians will be quite so sanguine next time Turkey sends aircraft into Syrian airspace to whack Kurdish terrorists.
Gentleman Aviator
Until Libya fell, they had that port facility. Now they need a new one and Syria fits the bill even better being in the eastern Med.
LW 50:
That is if the sympathizers with people like IS are prepared to sell also do they have enough facilities to off load the amount of LNG they will need and that does not even start with the problems of transport?
Cazalet33:
If the Russians are integrated within the Syrian air defence system and they have been invited into Syria by its 'President' They may have been legally empowered to resist the incursion with deadly force by the Turkish Air force via its Presidents authority. Putin it is reported to have called up 150,000 conscripts, would not take a minute to call up those who may not see the world the way he views it, and I suspect his friends know that.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told Russia there were other places Turkey could get natural gas and other countries that could build its first nuclear plant in response to the incursions.
Cazalet33:
If the Russians are integrated within the Syrian air defence system and they have been invited into Syria by its 'President' They may have been legally empowered to resist the incursion with deadly force by the Turkish Air force via its Presidents authority. Putin it is reported to have called up 150,000 conscripts, would not take a minute to call up those who may not see the world the way he views it, and I suspect his friends know that.
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If the Russians are integrated within the Syrian air defence system and they have been invited into Syria by its 'President'
Stuffy Dowding's UKADGE in 1938 was more integrated than Syria's ever was or ever will be.
Russia would have to set up an entirely parallel air defence system from scratch to defend Syria from NATO aggression. Simply can't be done, old boy.