I dunno about that. I'm in the camp that Vlad is very cautious but is moving forward as he senses a vacuum of power and a sees a general attitude of handwringing by the west. His calculas would rapidly change if the politicians didn't acquiesce to his actions. He's not foolish, he doesn't want an unwinnable war but he's emboldened by the lack of anything but rhetoric. I'm sure he's devastated his ambassador to Turkey was summoned to get an earful of diplomatic speak.
When he hears no and senses it really means no, I believe he'll back down.