Ukraine calling for UN intervention

[ShotOne]

"...the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail.

[ORAC]

.the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail.

A very slim possibility which has driven Finland's into the arms of NATO. Way to go Putin......

Finland Builds Multiple Defense Partnerships With NATO, Sweden

HELSINKI — Finland’s surprise decision to move toward a historic defense pact with NATO is expected to bolster the country’s interest in acquiring F-35 aircraft to replace the F/A-18 Hornets in 2025-30. Yet the government here is playing down local speculation that the April 22 memorandum of understanding (MoU) with NATO marks the beginning of a process toward membership within 10 years.

The MoU represents a landmark shift in Finland’s traditional defense policy of non-alignment and self-reliance. The proposed pact is to include a guarantee of NATO military support should Finnish territory be attacked. Under the proposal, Finland would invest in a NATO-centered military organization able to interact with NATO militaries and conduct maintenance on NATO ships and aircraft, and provide facilities for fuel and equipment maintenance for land forces.

The Russian-instigated crisis in Ukraine adds urgency to Finland’s need to strengthen regional defense partnerships, said Finnish Defense Minister Carl Haglund. “The [Ukraine] crisis will motivate many European countries, as well as EU states, to spend more on defense and raise their level of defense cooperation,” he said at a news conference here May 6.

Haglund said the MoU would not compel Finland to join NATO, but would establish a military interoperability agreement to deepen its relationship with the alliance beyond the existing Partnership for Peace cooperation pact. “The peacetime element will focus on training exercises between our armed forces,” Haglund said. “It will mean, in principle, that in times of crisis we are better equipped to receive support from others, including NATO, the European Union and Nordic countries.”.......

The MoD defense-partnership initiative with NATO has divided opinion inside and outside government.

“We still do not know what precisely the pact under discussion will involve,” said Paavo Arhinmäki, leader of the Left Alliance party. “It was not openly discussed at Cabinet level during my time in government, or in the parliamentary Foreign and Security Committee where I was a member. We were left in the dark, and I was very surprised to learn of this NATO pact.”

The crisis in Ukraine is a “game-changing situation” that “has made a Finland-NATO pact more urgent,” said Pirkko Ruohonen-Lerner, chairman of the Finns Party’s Parliamentary Group. “Our armed forces already use a large amount of NATO-compatible equipment. A NATO pact will provide Finland with a life insurance policy if it finds itself in a tight spot.”

[rh200]

.the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions"

To be honest, thats crap. NATO is no threat to anybody but itself. Its a defence pact. Anyone with any serious knowledge is aware of its limitations. Putin and the rest of his followers do as well. What NATO is though, is a conveinent boogy man.

An excuse to do and carry out particular actions under the auspices of not being threatened by the big and powerful NATO. The fact is, its been in decline for ages, and every one knows that. The threat to Russia and primitive society's like theirs are progress. When people in repressed 2nd world country's see ajoining county's move forward it makes it harder for the establishment to control.

[melmothtw]

I just hope that those holding their secession referendum don't ever change their minds. Under a new law introduced by Putin it is a criminal offence to call for secession from Russia, punishable with up to 5 years imprisonment.

Putin signs law criminalizing calls to separatism | POLITICS | The Moscow News

[rh200]

Putin signs law criminalizing calls to separatism | POLITICS | The Moscow News

Yes I like how its a rule for those outside of Russia, not those within. It doesn't matter anyway, the whole Crimea and eastern Ukraine isn't legit anyway. Hell in one of the latest they are reporting 96% for, isn't that farsical.

It goes to show how much it matters, you would think you would at least try and make it look legit.

[henra]

Originally Posted by rh200

To be honest, thats crap. NATO is no threat to anybody but itself.

Hmm, while it may be a bit simplistic, it is not crap.
Putin thinks in spheres of influence or 'Blocks' (like the US and to some extent the NATO does). And in that pattern of thinking, Ukraine joining NATO is something he 'fears'. Not because Ukraine will invade Russia, but because it would have to be considered lost for Russia's sphere of Influence.

That falls on fertile grounds with the Russian population due in part to perceived humiliations by the West post 1990.
Putin uses these inherent sentiments in the Population to foster his popularity. Which seems to work brilliantly. Even Russians who were never really pro- Putin now are.

At the Moment there is little that can be done effectively to alleviate this. Mid-/Longterm effects of the sanctions may change that, but short term there is probably not much to do.
Military threats regarding Ukraine won't help. In contrary, it will even more weld the population together behind Putin.
That said Military re-assurance of the Baltic states should be given. That has to be a red line. A serious one.
And I think it is. NATO would lose all credibility should it not enforce this one fully. And Putin will know it.
Military threat should only be used if one is willing to go for it.
Fully.
Credibility is an invaluable and difficult to repair asset.

[ORAC]

NATO Official Vows Support In Moldova Visit

CHISINAU, MOLDOVA — NATO’s deputy chief vowed Monday to strengthen the alliance’s partnership with Moldova during a visit in the former Soviet country that could inflame tensions with Moscow.

NATO’s Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow wrote on Twitter the alliance is “committed to enhance partnership (with) Moldova in full respect of its neutrality, supporting its independence, integrity and sovereignty.” But in a remark aimed at appeasing Moscow after Moldovan President Nicolae Timofti and other top officials, he added that the partnership is “not exclusive or competitive” and one can remain a “strong friend of Russia” and still be a member.

The visit comes after Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin enraged Chisinau over the weekend by delivering boxes of petitions asking Russia to recognize Moldova’s breakaway Transdniestr region to Moscow. Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in March has prompted fears it could claim other disputed ex-Soviet regions with majority Russian-speaking populations. Moldova’s government slammed Rogozin’s “unproductive” acts and “provocative statements on Moldova,” saying they “do not help to make progress in the Transdniestr conflict.”

In an interview to Radio Free Europe, Vershbow, a longtime former envoy to Moscow, expressed concern the Ukraine crisis could impact Moldova and warned that NATO views any attempts to stir separatism “very negatively.”

Russia’s Rogozin hit back, saying that Russia could send more troops to Transdniestr, a thin strip of land wedged between the Dniestr River and the border with Ukraine. In an interview with daily Kommersant published on Monday, the hawkish Rogozin condemned Moldova’s increased cooperation with the West and said Russian soldiers could “absolutely” appear in Transdniestr if it is in “physical danger. We see what is going on next to it in (Ukraine’s) Odessa region,” Rogozin said, claiming there are violent “idiots” there who want to “meddle in Transdniestr.”

A clash between pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian supporters in Odessa earlier this month led to a blaze that claimed 42 lives, mostly people opposing authorities in Kiev.

Rogozin, who oversees Russia’s military industrial complex and has been blacklisted by the European Union over involvement in the Ukraine crisis, promised Transdniestr on his visit that Moscow will ensure its security. He flaunted his support of the separatists, overseeing a Victory Day parade on May 9 and posting pictures of himself fishing on the Dniestr River.

[Trim Stab]

"...the prospect of Ukraine eventually joining NATO is a large part of the trigger for Russia's current actions". While it's comfortable to have Putin as the pantomime villain, Fox3 has hit the nail.

Putin does not want to annexe Eastern Ukraine for exactly that reason. If he annexes Eastern Ukraine, the remainder of Ukraine will have a very substantial majority keen to join NATO and EU. He will refuse to incorporate Eastern Ukraine so that he has influence in the future orientation of Ukraine as a whole.

If the West is clever, it will go along with Putin (with a bit of bluster and protestation) and keep what is left of Ukraine as buffer zone.

[ORAC]

Ref the above, the view of the Streetwise Professor:

Kabuki a la Sovok

The Kabuki dance in Donetsk goes on. The “separatists” announce they are holding a referendum on independence. Putin comes out and says, during a press conference with the head of the OSCE, that he wants them to delay it. The west breathes a sigh of relief. The markets rally.

But this call is not echoed by other Russian officials or on Russian media, and Putin does not repeat it. Separatists feign shock! shock! that Putin has betrayed them.

The referendum goes ahead and-brace yourself-the independence motion is adopted near unanimously with everybody voting. Sometimes more than once! To show how much they desire this, or something.

Within hours of the vote, the separatists ask for Russia to “absorb” the regions of Ukraine that voted for independence. The Russians don’t come out and immediately say “I do”, but did make cooing noises:

“The preliminary results of the ballot counts convincingly show a real desire on the part of citizens of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the right to independently make decisions about issues that are vitally important to them,” it said.

It stopped short of advocating independence for the regions or their absorption into Russia, saying:

“We believe that the results of the referendum should be brought to life within the framework of dialogue between Kiev, Donetsk and Luhansk.”

But of course the play is not over. But this being Kabuki, the future acts are very predictable. There will be some incident in the Donbass that will mean that Russian lives are at risk, and that fraternal obligations require the Russian Federation to take the newly independent republics under its wing. Or the Russians will do this after the Kiev government refuses to negotiate with the new “people’s republics” (as Russia is sure that it will not, as it cannot): the Russians will rage at how the American dupe fascists are refusing to negotiate with the reasonable people of Donetsk and Lugansk, and that the Russian government is left with no choice but to protect these poor oppressed people from the criminal junta in Kiev and their American overlords.

And the last act-as always-will involve Merkel and Obama and Kerry harumphing and vituperating. And then doing nothing, because nothing is the thing they want to do more than anything. And Vlad will nod and move on to his next target. Transnistria. Or the rest of “Novarossiya”. Or both. The end.

[Fox3WheresMyBanana]

As I suggested earlier, gas economics is a major issue.
GAZPROM is demanding around $27 billion from Ukraine in bills, revoked agreements and prepayments. Last month the bill was apparently only $2 billion. The new bill would absorb all the $17 billion promised by the IMF and then some.

Could get very messy!

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/11/wo...pgtype=article

[rh200]

Give them a bill for Crimea and the rest, and deal with it in the international courts. Call for damages of a few hundred billion and get the proceeds confiscated from international sources.

[ORAC]

Workers Seize City in Eastern Ukraine From Separatists

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Thousands of steelworkers fanned out on Thursday through the city of Mariupol, establishing control over the streets and banishing the pro-Kremlin militants who until recently had seemed to be consolidating their grip on power, dealing a setback to Russia and possibly reversing the momentum in eastern Ukraine.

By late Thursday, miners and steelworkers had deployed in at least five cities, including the regional capital, Donetsk. They had not, however, become the dominant force there that they were in Mariupol, the region’s second-largest city and the site last week of a bloody confrontation between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian militants. But polls had indicated that a strong majority of eastern Ukrainians supported unity, though few were prepared to say so publicly in the face of armed pro-Russian militants. When President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia withdrew support for the separatists last week, calling for a delay in the referendum and for dialogue on Ukraine’s future, the political winds shifted, providing an opening that the country’s canny oligarchs could exploit.

The workers who took to the streets on Thursday were among the hundreds of thousands in the east who are employed in metals and mining by Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, who only recently went beyond paying lip service to Ukrainian unity and on Wednesday issued a statement rejecting separatism. Critics say Mr. Akhmetov could have prevented much of the bloodshed in the east if he had taken a strong stance sooner. But his lieutenants say he decided to confront the separatists out of a deep belief that independence, or even quasi-autonomy, would be disastrous for eastern Ukraine. Mr. Akhmetov urged his employees, whose jobs were at risk, to take over the city.

The workers, who were wearing only their protective clothing and hard hats, said they were “outside politics” and were just trying to establish order. Faced with waves of steelworkers joined by the police, the pro-Russian protesters melted away, along with signs of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic and its representatives. Backhoes and dump trucks from the steelworkers’ factory dismantled the barricades that separatists had erected............

Though the workers had differing views of the new government in Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, on the whole they supported the patrols to restore order, employees and managers said. “Everybody can have their own opinion, but not at work,” Sergei Istratov, a shift boss at the factory, said. “At work, you have to do what the factory demands.” Yuri Ryzhenkov, the chief executive of Metinvest, which is ranked among the top five steel producers globally, said managers had been conveying to workers: “The most important thing you have is the steel mill. If you have the steel mill, you have jobs, salaries and stability for your families.”

Once patrols began, he said, representatives of the Donetsk People’s Republic visited the Ilyich factory, demanding to know what was happening. “They were not very friendly at first,” Mr. Ryzhenkov said. But the patrols were welcomed in town, he said, and militants had little option but to acquiesce, at least in Mariupol. “The Donetsk People’s Republic understands if they attack unarmed local people, they will lose all support here,” he said.

The effort is more than ad hoc. The coal and steel workers will soon have uniforms for the street patrols, Metinvest executives said, with patches identifying them as members of the “Volunteer People’s Patrol.”............

Residents welcomed the steelworker patrols for bringing an end to chaos and insecurity. They said masked men had robbed four grocery stores, a shop selling hunting rifles and a jewelry store, and that they had burned down a bank. The crowds of pro-Russian protesters who had jeered and cursed Ukrainian soldiers last week were nowhere to be seen. On the city’s central square Thursday afternoon, a pro-Russian rally drew a few dozen protesters, who were watched over by a group of steelworkers................

[rh200]

I see the UN has released a human rights report saying that there going down hill in eastern Ukraine, strongly pointing the finger at the Russian side.

Surprise surprise.

[ORAC]

Streetwise professor, my added links.

When Putin Says It’s Not About Politics, It’s About Politics

Putin responded to Ukraine’s promise to sign an Association Agreement with the EU by threatening to raise customs duties on imports from Ukraine. Putin’s justification for this was classic gobbledygook:

“We agreed on the start of consultations at the level of experts,” he recalled, voicing the hope that they would be held at the level of department chiefs and would raise to a ministerial level somewhat later.

“I hope these contacts will begin and we’ll be able to show in detail what the subject of our concerns is,” Putin said as he addressed a conference on agriculture.

He repeated once again what kind of a threat the AA between the EU and Ukraine was posing for Russia. “If specific economic problems arise we won’t be able to keep the zero rate for import customs fees,” Putin said.

Then he gave away the game:

“This doesn’t have anything to do with politics or with the options one or another state selects because each sovereign state has the right to choose its original pathway.”

Meaning, in fact, that it is all about politics and constraining the right of a sovereign state to choose its own pathway.

Putin is willing to accept a negative outcome in Ukraine. That is, his main goal is to prevent Ukraine from moving closer to the west. If it is isolated from the west, he can control it, more or less, without having to actually take over the place. Creating a new frozen conflict serves this purpose. This threat is intended to achieve the same objective. However, whereas Yanukovych was vulnerable to economic pressure on issues like duties, I don’t think the current government is. That Rubicon has been crossed. So Putin will inflict pain on Ukraine, but it will be unlikely to keep it from moving west, if only because it now understands that it faces a choice between integrating with the west or utter subjugation to Putin and Russia.

In other news, Russian forces are again building up on the Ukrainian border. This is consistent with what I wrote in May. That the drawdown was not a concession by Putin, but was driven by the expiration of the terms of one set of conscripts and the need to muster them out and replace them with the 2014 cohort. That process completed, the units that have been withdrawn are moving back to the border.

Unfortunately, the political “leadership” in the west sees what it wants to see. It desperately wants to believe that Putin is willing to de-escalate.

Hardly. He wants to maintain the pressure, but with respect to regular military units operates subject to the severe constraints of a decrepit manpower system.

[rh200]

Ukrainian church desecrated in Sydney | News.com.au

See the Russki's are stirring things up elsewhere.

Yea I'm not sure how its going on the ground, I presume he's stoking it enough that he can justify going in. Now that they have a new elected president, one would think maybe the yanks could supply them with soemething a bit more than MRE's.