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Here it comes: Syria

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Here it comes: Syria

Old 2nd Sep 2013, 13:32
  #941 (permalink)  
 
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chuks,

No, no, you misunderstand. For my children I embellish. I'm a steely-eyed hero, fighting off the beastly enemy.

When serving in 'a military' (obviously not yours) no-one actually shot at me. I had no war. I just flew around pretending and, gosh, it was fun.

I was shot at afterwards when I was doing another job. Whisper it... 'Press'.

Last edited by hanoijane; 2nd Sep 2013 at 13:35. Reason: Crosspost with SASless. How ironic. He hates the press too :-)
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 13:47
  #942 (permalink)  
 
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Stuffy:
Paul Craig Roberts' shrill noise about how America was about to start a war with Iran, back in 2007 or so, and crying wolf at the top of his lungs damaged his credibility. His cabinet experiences over thirty years ago are useful for his efforts at making points on how things happen at "high levels" but they do not provide him insights into the current states of play.

He's wrong more often than he isn't. He continues his squealing for the benefit of anyone who will put his byline on an article. I still like to read his stuff, as it isn't standard MSM output, but have no illusions about how close his predictions are to reality.

As to the "defer to Congress" move in progress, I am glad for that. If Assad is about to get whacked in a few weeks, he has plenty of time to move things around, a series of events that I am sure will be watched carefully. There is also more time for the UN team to provide more information, of whatever utility.

If he won't, in the end, get whacked then I lose no sleep. I remain disappointed in President Obama for painting himself into a corner with the red line gambit. Self inflicted wound, that.

The question remains: if the Arab League will not come out in favor of a strike on Assad, a show of support that was provided when the Libya thing went down, what in the name of all that is beer is the reason that our President feels compelled to do so, and the French? Something politically is going all crossed wires, as I see it. The political element of war is as important, even more important, than the things that go BOOM when fired.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 2nd Sep 2013 at 14:03.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 15:36
  #943 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 View Post
The political element of war is as important, even more important, than the things that go BOOM when fired.
What exactly will our leaders do for an encore after they flatten the place with TLAM?

Let us suppose that all CW is eliminated. Do they then say 'Job Done or do they have a Plan B?

Over 60 years ago the US Central Staffs wrote a war plan for war with the USSR. It covered every contingency that they could think of from pre-emptive strike, to long drawn out slug fest, to perhaps least bad option of immediate capitulation before the US and her allies had mobilised and were capable of policing and running the defeated nation.

That planning was conspicuous by its absence in Iraq.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 15:42
  #944 (permalink)  
 
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"That planning was conspicuous by its absence in Iraq."

And Afghanistan ?
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 16:42
  #945 (permalink)  
 
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Iraq...

One of our first casualties, after the formal shooting had stopped, was an Army sergeant who had been tasked with handing out candy to Iraqi children. He was busy doing that when someone sneaked up and shot him. That was one of the first clues that Rumsfeld had overlooked a few things when planning this adventure, particularly, "What happens after the surrender?"

I guess Rumsfeld figured it was going to be like the liberation of Paris back in 1944, when the happy Parisians greeted us with flowers.

"A steely-eyed hero" with fake tits... that sounds just like Bradley Manning to me, at least, once he gets his op approved.

I am afraid Jane's hero is going to have to fight off a few beastly enemies unless he/she gets a private shower, or at least soap on a rope.

Check out Dr. Demento's "Pencil-neck Geek," because I hear that song playing in my head every time I look at that dweebish Bradley wearing his/her silly little beret. And just whom is he/she planning to seduce in that cheap blonde wig? Going cruising for blind gays, are we?
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 19:41
  #946 (permalink)  
 
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Hmmm... I'm guessing you're not wearing your Gay Pride t shirt tonight, chuks. Are you always this grumpy when it's in the wash?

I'm sure young Bradley/Chelsea is a fine fellow/woman. Though what he/she was doing with an TS - SCI clearance after only a year or so in the army and being very open about his/her 'issues' I have no idea.

And you're surprised it all ended in tears?

You do know Dr Demento claims a degree in 'Ethnomusicology'? Is that even a word?
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 21:11
  #947 (permalink)  
 
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Post Victory....things were going fine for part of a day.....but when that Genius Paul Bremer fired the entire Iraqi Government, stopped all retirement pay, and decided to clean house of all Bathist Party Members.....well shall we agree things went to Hell in a Hand Basket?

Jay Garner, much like George Patton following WWII, was going to continue to man the Iraqi Military, Police, and other government agencies using the existing personnel.....and gradually removing those culpable in crimes against the Iraqi People during the Saddam Regime.

He got replaced and Bremer showed up and took charge.

That was the cause of the Insurgency pure and simple.

It was not as much lack of planning....it was an over abundance of stupidity....something the American Government seems to have an excess of no matter which party is in power.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:13
  #948 (permalink)  
 
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SASless:

Jay Garner, much like George Patton following WWII, was going to continue to man the Iraqi Military, Police, and other government agencies using the existing personnel.....and gradually removing those culpable in crimes against the Iraqi People during the Saddam Regime.
Why the hell politicians don't learn the lessons of history is beyond me, that's what happened in Germany in 1945 and then a de-nazification programme started and those who were known to have committed crimes hunted down brought to trial and numerous were executed.

It really is the old saying 'If you do not learn from the lessons of history you are destined to relearn them'. Politicians are generally a**eholes who need to be hit over the head with a pick axe handle at regular intervals. Their inability to learn has cost many men women and children their lives and our respective armed forces too many deaths and the 'loss of blood and treasure'. May the politicians bow their heads in shame.

RiP to the fallen and speedy recovery to the injured both physically and many of those with the unseen mental injury war brings.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:19
  #949 (permalink)  
 
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Air Pig

Re Germany, wasn't that run by the military ?

I think in regards to Iraq, you also had to include Bureaucrats in that.

I would love to know why Paul Bremer did what he did and what the thought
process behind it was. I vaguely remember reading that he didn't listen to
the military commanders on the ground and had a very frosty relationship
with them.

Any clues from anyone ? I haven't read many books on that yet.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:26
  #950 (permalink)  
 
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550 N

Re Germany, wasn't that run by the military ?

I think in regards to Iraq, you also had to include Bureaucrats in that
It had a military commissioner but local things like infrastructure was run in the way it was before the surrender. The big thing was Germany was in four parts and each was run differently in the west, in the east the Russians just hovered up all the former Nazi's and used them to their advantage and people like Wollwebber and the communists that survived the concentration camps etc took over.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:33
  #951 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks

Your post prompted me to look it up again.

Notice the military commanders that didn't have a civilian equivalent
for a while after the war in Germany ended.

Allied-occupied Germany - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:39
  #952 (permalink)  
 
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500 n,

A model in itself which again history apart from telling us what happened also tells us what our successes and failures are, Iraq was a failure to learn from history. In Iraq an added complication was outside interference from other countries and in country religious factionalism and short of banning religion (what a good idea) you would still have had an unstable state.
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Old 2nd Sep 2013, 23:46
  #953 (permalink)  
 
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Agree.

I would say, as you would know being ex mil, people with time on their hands
with no control cause problems.

How many did they sack and so were unemployed ?

Millions.

I somehow doubt the or any uprising / insurgency would
have gained so much momentum so quickly if they had
been gainfully employed.

Just my HO.
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 00:00
  #954 (permalink)  
 
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Stupidity in itself sacking people who knew the local infrastructure and how it worked. Iraq like Germany, you in effect had to be a member of the ruling party to get on, that doesn't mean you are a torturer or corrupted, just trying to live a daily life for your family. By removing those people chaos of not being able to run water and power brings the population to its knees and trouble flares when people cannot feed their family.

Your opinion in my view is totally correct, unless you give people hope of a better life in that situation you negate the reason for war from the start and has been proved caused a humanitarian disaster.
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 05:08
  #955 (permalink)  
 
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Hey....put yourself in their shoes!

Your country gets invaded, defeated militarily, the government is there but leaderless, the Coalition forces guard only the Oil Ministry and Petroleum Assets. Anarchy breaks out and the Coalition does not have enough troop strength or Contingency Plans to cope with the problem.

Then along comes Paul Bremer who chucks the previously selected Leader of the country out of office, fires the government, disbands the Police and Military, terminates salaries, pensions, and does not seize or secure all of the arms, munitions, artillery, and explosives left over from the War.

Now...you reckon a guy whose country has been invaded, occupied, and is being run by foreigners and people who he does not like for any number of reasons....who is now unemployed, broke financially, has no hope of work, no source of income, but does have his AK-47 and RPG....is going to be a Happy Camper?

I am just a dumb ass old helicopter pilot but even I can see all that might cause a problem for some folks.

Paul Bremer, George Bush et al did not.

Yes the Insurgency took off....like a Rocket!

If the Police had been retained, the military retained, along with the civil servants....then things would have been a lot better. They would have had jobs, would have been running their own country, and would have been a part of bringing the country back to life. Ridding the ranks of Baathists who had perpetrated crimes could have been done in an orderly fashion over time. They would have had no reason to fight the Coalition forces as they did the way things took place.

Look at the situation we find ourselves in today....Libya a mess, Egypt in turmoil but fighting Radical Islamists but not being supported by Obama, and now the dildo butt wants to attack Syria......pure darn Genius I would say!

Every thing the guy has done has played right into the hands of Al Qaeda and other Radical Islamic groups.....and has done so way to nicely to be completely a product of miscalculation or by accident.

At least the Egyptian Military are fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and its excesses.....but the MB will succeed in Libya and in time probably win out in Syria. The Iranians are on a roll here. They shall be the dominant power in the Middle East within a few years.

We can thank Jimmy Carter for kick starting that.

Last edited by SASless; 3rd Sep 2013 at 05:13.
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 05:16
  #956 (permalink)  
 
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SaSless

Oh yes, I think we would all have done what they did in Iraq if it was our country. Well, I would no qualms about it. I am just glad if everything turns
to crap in this country I have some training to fall back on that would allow
me to be effective.

Re Egypt and "At least the Egyptian Military are fighting the Muslim Brotherhood and its excesses....."

Imagine if the US did NOT have so much tied up in Egypt in terms of
military sales etc etc etc. Their was an interesting article about this in
one of the papers when Obama said the US would stop supply of XYZ
military equipment etc. Well it kind of pointed out that it wasn't as easy
as all that because the pipeline and lead time was so long.

I wonder if the US was not so involved they (Obama) might have tried
harder to get the MB back in !!!
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 08:03
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After two years of civil war and with the deeply engrained differences partition is now inevitable. It could just follow the facts on the ground, be a treaty setting up 3 countries or could be a loose federation.
Kurds: northern enclaves
Shia/Alawite: Damascus, Homs, coastal villages.
Sunni: Euphrates valley. Aleppo region.

Much is made that the opposition are islamic nutters. This is an exaggeration.
There are between six and ten thousand fighters in the islamic forces. But they vary in conviction. Many are there because they had more and better kit. Many are just devout Some salafists and some jihadists.
There are about 150,000 opposition fighters who are non salafist/jihadist.
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 08:32
  #958 (permalink)  
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Eclectic, one small problem in what should be an obvious plan.

The Kurds also claim parts of Turkey and Iran. In Iraq, with Shia in the Basra area, in Kuzestan they are also Shia Arabs rather than Persian.

Granting autonomy to different factions in the western countries of Syria and Iraq could be cause for more conflict between Syria-Turkey-Iraq-Iran in the north and Iraq and Iran in the south.

Carving up the Ottoman Empire really was the problem.
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 08:40
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USA has weapons specifically for use against chemical and biological stockpiles: http://defensetech.org/2013/08/30/ai...mical-weapons/

The U.S. Air Force has spent years developing so-called “Agent Defeat Weapons” designed to target and destroy stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons without dispersing or releasing them to surrounding areas, service officials said.

“The U.S. Air Force has Agent Defeat Weapons designed to limit collateral damage and effects,” Air Force spokeswoman Jennifer Cassidy told Military​.com. “The munitions are PAW (Passive Attack Weapon) and Crash Pad.”.......more
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Old 3rd Sep 2013, 09:16
  #960 (permalink)  
 
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The lines on this map look more sensible than the ones the imperialists drew:

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