Here it comes: Syria
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Why? If the missiles hit in the same place only a few seconds apart, each succeeding hit would just stir up the rubble, not create more rubble, and certainly not create more surrounding damage.
This is strange indeed and seems not to fit the announced numbers. More than 15 Tomahawk per building (equivalent of 6-7 tons of serious, not improvised, explosives) would eliminate everything around, as there were not underground explosions - buildings "are ordinary civilian boxes". This only means that not all 100+ missiles hit them, but much less.
Good point. The IADS was able to use as much radar (area and local) as needed without being shut down. (But did they know that ahead of time? I have no idea). If things like HARM had been used someone would probably have made mention of that due to the odds of those hitting somewhere that were not CW facilities.
Question: what do you know about jamming or other electrical countermeasures?
Indeed.
There are more ways than "waiting for the target to admit you hit him" to figure out if the missiles their targets or not.
Question: what do you know about jamming or other electrical countermeasures?
Now the burden of proof is on the Syrian side.
There are more ways than "waiting for the target to admit you hit him" to figure out if the missiles their targets or not.
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also on the Beeb - looks like a very large building across the road is pretty much intact (tho I expect the windows may have disappeared) - looks like accuracy <10ft
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Hmmm. It seems that the targeting and hit/loss figures continue to be a straight argument, with no simple way for a member of joe-public to know. There certainly could be misinformation due to collateral damage from Syrian SAM boosters and shrapnel. Beyond that, it certainly looks as though there was little or no use of ARM.
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I do not think that the Syrians have any considerable EW means.
What was used on the US side, you definitely know better. I can only say that have not heard/read of intensive usage of the US EW planes at the time of attack, and this made the task for the Syrain AD much easier.
I heard on radio some Russian correspondent interviewing a Syrain officer who was among those operating a Buk system during the attack. That guy said they saw decoys on the screen.
There was another information that I found more dangerous: a cat&mouse game played by UK and Russian subs. The latter prevented the former to launch CMs. Now this story has also been published in the English media:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/b...ller-dhxhlpwc9
No idea if this is a fake news or not, but sounds dangerous.
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Cat & mouse games happen all the time -
In this case the Russians had a pretty good idea that the British/US/French subs might launch from the E Med - so you can concentrate your forces. If you have some idea that (say ) the only RN sub in the Med is around Gibraltar you can monitor the approach points as well
You don't have to detect the Astute - all you have to do is to generate enough local activity to make it uncomfortable for them to launch
In this case the Russians had a pretty good idea that the British/US/French subs might launch from the E Med - so you can concentrate your forces. If you have some idea that (say ) the only RN sub in the Med is around Gibraltar you can monitor the approach points as well
You don't have to detect the Astute - all you have to do is to generate enough local activity to make it uncomfortable for them to launch
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Syrian AD's Pk now exceeds 1:
Associated Press, April 16 (7:05 p.m.): Syrian state-run television says Syria's air defenses have confronted a new "aggression," shooting down missiles over the area of Homs in the country's center... State television showed pictures of a missile it said was shot in the air above the air base.
Reuters, April 17 (4:49 a.m.): A false alarm led to Syrian air defense missiles being fired overnight and no new attack on Syria took place, Syrian state media and a military commander said on Tuesday... Syrian state news agency SANA cited a military source as saying a number of air defense missiles had been fired but no foreign attack had taken place.
Wonder how many of those claimed 71 shotdowns from April 14th were MALDs?
Associated Press, April 16 (7:05 p.m.): Syrian state-run television says Syria's air defenses have confronted a new "aggression," shooting down missiles over the area of Homs in the country's center... State television showed pictures of a missile it said was shot in the air above the air base.
Reuters, April 17 (4:49 a.m.): A false alarm led to Syrian air defense missiles being fired overnight and no new attack on Syria took place, Syrian state media and a military commander said on Tuesday... Syrian state news agency SANA cited a military source as saying a number of air defense missiles had been fired but no foreign attack had taken place.
Wonder how many of those claimed 71 shotdowns from April 14th were MALDs?
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Israel warns Iran: we are ready to strike you in Syria
Israel released satellite images yesterday of Iranian bases in Syria, a clear warning to its old enemy as both are drawn deeper into the Syrian conflict.
The Israeli military said it believed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was planning to attack Israel in the coming days; retaliation for its strike on an Iranian drone base in Syria in the early hours of April 9 in which seven Iranians died. Intelligence officers say that the attack could come tomorrow, to coincide with Israel’s 70th anniversary celebrations. The release of the satellite images was intended to signal to Iran that Israel knows the location of its elite expeditionary Quds Force bases in Syria and stands ready to strike.....
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran is seeking to build its own independent infrastructure in Syria for asymmetric warfare against Israel, including drones and high-tech tools that are harder to strike than conventional military sites. A senior Israeli intelligence official said: “Despite all the diplomacy and warnings, the Iranians are still going to try to build their permanent bases in Syria and so far, we don’t see Putin trying very hard to stop them. Russia needs the Iranians to supply boots on the ground. As for the US, we have yet to see a clear policy from the Trump administration on the Syrian issue.”
Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said: “This latest development didn’t suddenly happen. It’s a result of the Iranians’ resolve to entrench in Syria and Israel is determined to prevent that from happening. That’s why these two normally risk-averse powers are now close to confrontation. It’s not inevitable because Putin has an interest in stabilising Syria and he can try to defuse the situation.”
Israel has stated repeatedly, and publicly, that it will not allow Iran to establish bases in Syria that could threaten it. Intelligence officers believe that in addition to the drone operations, the IRGC is working with Syria to enhance its defences against Israeli aircraft and provide protection for Iran’s new bases.
Israel has not publicly admitted to the strike on April 9, which came a day after the suspected chemical attack on Syrian rebels in Douma. However, the White House said that Israel had told it of the attack — the latest of about 100 strikes in Syria credited to Israel — before it happened. An Israeli military official told The New York Times that the strike marked “the first time we attacked live Iranian targets, both facilities and people”. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s target was an advanced air defence system the Iranians were trying to install.
Israel’s previous attacks in Syria were intended mostly to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. An IRGC general was killed in a 2015 strike on a Hezbollah convoy on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights but it is not believed that Israel was aware of his presence.
Israel and Iran have been enemies for nearly four decades, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, but most confrontations have been fought by Iran’s proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah. That changed in February when Israel shot down an Iranian drone said to be carrying explosives from Syria after it entered Israeli airspace. Brigidier-General Ronen Manelis, the Israeli military spokesman, said last week that the drone’s flight path and “intelligence and operational analysis” indicated that it was carrying explosives and that its mission was “an act of sabotage in Israeli territory”.
Seven IRGC officers died in the subsequent Israeli strike on the drone’s launch site in Palmyra, including a colonel who was in command of drone operations. In a rare move, Iran publicly acknowledged the deaths of its “martyrs” in Syria.
The satellite footage released by Israel yesterday shows two IRGC compounds at Syrian airbases in Deir Ezzor and Sayqal from where it claims Iranian drones are being operated. Footage was also released of Mehrabad airport in Tehran, where the IRGC is alleged to maintain a cargo facility at which aircraft are loaded with weapons flown to the Assad regime under the guise of humanitarian supplies.
In releasing the images, Israel is signalling the extent of its intelligence about Iranian involvement in Syria and what the Islamic Republic stands to lose if matters escalate. It also published a map of five airbases that it claims are being used by the IRGC throughout Syria and the details of senior commanders, including a photograph of Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC air force......
Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, told a television interviewer that Israel was “trying to show that it dictates the rules of the conflict, and we cannot agree with this”. He added: “We expect Iranian retaliation to the killing of Iranians by Israel at the airbase.”
Israel released satellite images yesterday of Iranian bases in Syria, a clear warning to its old enemy as both are drawn deeper into the Syrian conflict.
The Israeli military said it believed that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was planning to attack Israel in the coming days; retaliation for its strike on an Iranian drone base in Syria in the early hours of April 9 in which seven Iranians died. Intelligence officers say that the attack could come tomorrow, to coincide with Israel’s 70th anniversary celebrations. The release of the satellite images was intended to signal to Iran that Israel knows the location of its elite expeditionary Quds Force bases in Syria and stands ready to strike.....
Israeli intelligence believes that Iran is seeking to build its own independent infrastructure in Syria for asymmetric warfare against Israel, including drones and high-tech tools that are harder to strike than conventional military sites. A senior Israeli intelligence official said: “Despite all the diplomacy and warnings, the Iranians are still going to try to build their permanent bases in Syria and so far, we don’t see Putin trying very hard to stop them. Russia needs the Iranians to supply boots on the ground. As for the US, we have yet to see a clear policy from the Trump administration on the Syrian issue.”
Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli Military Intelligence, said: “This latest development didn’t suddenly happen. It’s a result of the Iranians’ resolve to entrench in Syria and Israel is determined to prevent that from happening. That’s why these two normally risk-averse powers are now close to confrontation. It’s not inevitable because Putin has an interest in stabilising Syria and he can try to defuse the situation.”
Israel has stated repeatedly, and publicly, that it will not allow Iran to establish bases in Syria that could threaten it. Intelligence officers believe that in addition to the drone operations, the IRGC is working with Syria to enhance its defences against Israeli aircraft and provide protection for Iran’s new bases.
Israel has not publicly admitted to the strike on April 9, which came a day after the suspected chemical attack on Syrian rebels in Douma. However, the White House said that Israel had told it of the attack — the latest of about 100 strikes in Syria credited to Israel — before it happened. An Israeli military official told The New York Times that the strike marked “the first time we attacked live Iranian targets, both facilities and people”. The Wall Street Journal reported that Israel’s target was an advanced air defence system the Iranians were trying to install.
Israel’s previous attacks in Syria were intended mostly to prevent the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. An IRGC general was killed in a 2015 strike on a Hezbollah convoy on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights but it is not believed that Israel was aware of his presence.
Israel and Iran have been enemies for nearly four decades, since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, but most confrontations have been fought by Iran’s proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah. That changed in February when Israel shot down an Iranian drone said to be carrying explosives from Syria after it entered Israeli airspace. Brigidier-General Ronen Manelis, the Israeli military spokesman, said last week that the drone’s flight path and “intelligence and operational analysis” indicated that it was carrying explosives and that its mission was “an act of sabotage in Israeli territory”.
Seven IRGC officers died in the subsequent Israeli strike on the drone’s launch site in Palmyra, including a colonel who was in command of drone operations. In a rare move, Iran publicly acknowledged the deaths of its “martyrs” in Syria.
The satellite footage released by Israel yesterday shows two IRGC compounds at Syrian airbases in Deir Ezzor and Sayqal from where it claims Iranian drones are being operated. Footage was also released of Mehrabad airport in Tehran, where the IRGC is alleged to maintain a cargo facility at which aircraft are loaded with weapons flown to the Assad regime under the guise of humanitarian supplies.
In releasing the images, Israel is signalling the extent of its intelligence about Iranian involvement in Syria and what the Islamic Republic stands to lose if matters escalate. It also published a map of five airbases that it claims are being used by the IRGC throughout Syria and the details of senior commanders, including a photograph of Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC air force......
Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s deputy leader, told a television interviewer that Israel was “trying to show that it dictates the rules of the conflict, and we cannot agree with this”. He added: “We expect Iranian retaliation to the killing of Iranians by Israel at the airbase.”
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Since Iran is very open about its intentions to destroy Israel it would seem that any Iranian forward position in Syria is a legitimate target for Israel to defend itself against...and pointless to point out the best form that takes.
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One of the best ways for Israel to 'defend' itself is for it to feed bogus 'intelligence' to the US, who will then feel obliged to take action on it. This could have happened here with the gas attack at Douma, which has yet to be established beyond doubt.
Remember the WMD which Saddam never had at all?
Remember the WMD which Saddam never had at all?
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First there was no gas attack at all. It was fake news
Then the gas attack that did not happen was actually the work of the UK. Yah shur.
Now, the gas attack that did not happen was actually false intel created by Israel. Yah shur, the US has zero intel sources of its own. So little in fact, that the US has no idea where Syria's chemical production and storage plants are located and no way to target them. Oh, wait.
What's next? The gas attack was really the work of space aliens who the Syrians, Iranians, and Russians are valiantly combatting?