The South China Sea's Gathering Storm
under the veneer of unity and expanding force structure and capability there are some impediments to "Crouching Draggin'..." bashing up the locals in the SCS to pursue the 9-dash line "land grab".
Russia is not alone in having established a cancerous system of corruption in its military.
Russia is not alone in having established a cancerous system of corruption in its military.
Administrator
NotAsAMod:
Does the parallel structure of "president for life" between Russia (Putin) and China (Xi) inform the military corruption aspect, or is that coincidence?
Does the parallel structure of "president for life" between Russia (Putin) and China (Xi) inform the military corruption aspect, or is that coincidence?
Xi is presented as an anti-corruption leader, one at odds with the extensive senior officer corps that is involved in corrupt practices, yet his family and Xi have managed to salt away vast fortunes as well. The actions of prior premiers of China made it almost inevitable that corruption would become widespread in the military when the PLA was obliged to hold cake stalls for their missiles, (40% of funding had to be self-sourced... ) which led to opportunity.
Authoritarian govts do appear to lend themselves to corrupt practices, however, it appears that they also preclude some avenues of corruption that occur in more liberal societies [3]. What seems to arise is corruption within components of the govt that have a steep power gradient, like the military.
[1] Vallance, J., (2007). Corruption and Reform in the Soviet Military, J. Slavic Military studies. 7(4), 703-724
[2] Merridale, C. (2006). Culture, Ideology and Combat in the Red Army, 1939-45. Journal of Contemporary History, 41(2), 305–324. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30036388
[3] Zaloznaya, M. (2015). Does Authoritarianism Breed Corruption? Reconsidering the Relationship Between Authoritarian Governance and Corrupt Exchanges in Bureaucracies. Law & Social Inquiry,40(2), 345-376. doi:10.1111/lsi.12076
I think the PLA capabilities are is being vastly overrated. The culture and therefore the effectiveness of the military's starts at the top. There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence and see the job as a states sanctioned license to accumulate vast wealth. This is not the foundation of an effective fighting force.
As the old saying goes power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.
I think the PLA capabilities are is being vastly overrated. The culture and therefore the effectiveness of the military's starts at the top. There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence and see the job as a states sanctioned license to accumulate vast wealth. This is not the foundation of an effective fighting force.
I think the PLA capabilities are is being vastly overrated. The culture and therefore the effectiveness of the military's starts at the top. There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence and see the job as a states sanctioned license to accumulate vast wealth. This is not the foundation of an effective fighting force.
As China gradually builds bases all through the South China Sea and builds its own carrier strike force, it greatly eases the PLA's job of defending China's approaches.
Meanwhile, it is uncertain whether the US military culture can survive a decade of 'woke' leadership. Read 'A few bad men'.(.https://www.simonandschuster.com/boo.../9781637584132)
"There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence "
Outside of a democracy that's a wise, even a VERY wise, move
Outside of a democracy that's a wise, even a VERY wise, move
But in china not chosen for loyalty to XI, still a lot of questions as to if XI has any control of the military
Agreed - lines off authority at the the top of the tree in China have always been very opaque
Xi now holds that post. Think it would be an impressive achievement to displace him.
That is fully in line with the Chinese historical experience, the "Mandate of Heaven' is withdrawn only when the current holder really flubs.
Xi came close to that in the early days of Covid and would surely be at risk if the Chinese real estate bubble popped.
In The Times.
China angers Tokyo by sending warship close to disputed Senkaku Islands
Snippets:-
China angers Tokyo by sending warship close to disputed Senkaku Islands
Snippets:-
Japan has lodged a protest with Beijing after a frigate from the Chinese navy sailed through waters around a group of disputed islands for the first time in four years. A Russian vessel was also spotted in the area.The ship entered “Japan’s contiguous waters” southwest of the uninhabited Senkaku Islands shortly before 8am today, according to the Japanese defence ministry. Contiguous waters extend 12 nautical miles beyond territorial waters.
A Russian naval ship was also observed near the islands this morning, local media reported, citing defence ministry sources. Russian and Chinese naval vessels have been spotted sailing in formation around Japan, from Hokkaido in the north, near Tokyo and close to Okinawa in the south in recent months, with the two nations apparently stepping up military co-operation.
Russia announced last week that it was seizing control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project, in which Japanese companies hold large stakes. Resource-poor Japan imports large quantities of liquid natural gas (LNG) from Russia and exempted it from the Ukraine-related sanctions. It is unclear what effect the seizure of the project will have on Japan’s energy supplies.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Thread Starter
Japan warns of ‘aggressor nation’ Russia, threats to Taiwan in new whitepaper
"Russia announced last week that it was seizing control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project, in which Japanese companies hold large stakes."
To be fair it was because Shell pulled out "After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Shell said that it would exit Sakhalin-2 and other ventures in Russia. On 30 June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the transfer of the Sakhalin-2 project to a new domestic operator. Foreign investors will be required to apply to retain their existing shares in the new Russian company within a month. The Russian government will then decide whether to allow foreign shareholders to keep their stake. If they are rejected, the government will sell the foreign shareholder’s stake and keep the proceeds in the shareholder’s special account.[size=8333px]"[/size]
To be fair it was because Shell pulled out "After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Shell said that it would exit Sakhalin-2 and other ventures in Russia. On 30 June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the transfer of the Sakhalin-2 project to a new domestic operator. Foreign investors will be required to apply to retain their existing shares in the new Russian company within a month. The Russian government will then decide whether to allow foreign shareholders to keep their stake. If they are rejected, the government will sell the foreign shareholder’s stake and keep the proceeds in the shareholder’s special account.[size=8333px]"[/size]
State Department jet crossing the pacific atm. Could pelosi be on board ?
https://www.flightradar24.com/SPAR19/2cdb2d95
https://www.flightradar24.com/SPAR19/2cdb2d95
US State Department confirms today that Speaker Pelosi will visit Taiwan this week - no further details given.
All eyes must be on China. They said there would be severe and consequential actions taken if she set foot on the island.
Will China reneg on their threat with Xi looking for a 3rd term? I doubt it. Worrying times.
All eyes must be on China. They said there would be severe and consequential actions taken if she set foot on the island.
Will China reneg on their threat with Xi looking for a 3rd term? I doubt it. Worrying times.
They said there would be severe and consequential actions taken if she set foot on the island.
That is an interesting question. Russia has always had a corruption issue at the top of the committee, an argument could be made that it has been pervasive since Tzarist times. Soviet military corruption was a topic of interest back in the early 90s. [1] Soviet corruption in the military during WW2 would seem to be more opportunistic than the hierarchical form that exists today, more of the stealing of radios, etc [2], rather than the falsification of stores expenditures that is prevalent in Russia and the PLA, PLAN, and PLAF today. When a soldier can spend 3.5 million in a bribe to get a promotion, there may be a problem When generals have accumulated over 3.2 Billion in personal wealth, when their young daughters own mansions, not from inherited wealth, that came from somewhere, and it has left a hole.
Xi is presented as an anti-corruption leader, one at odds with the extensive senior officer corps that is involved in corrupt practices, yet his family and Xi have managed to salt away vast fortunes as well. The actions of prior premiers of China made it almost inevitable that corruption would become widespread in the military when the PLA was obliged to hold cake stalls for their missiles, (40% of funding had to be self-sourced... ) which led to opportunity.
Authoritarian govts do appear to lend themselves to corrupt practices, however, it appears that they also preclude some avenues of corruption that occur in more liberal societies [3]. What seems to arise is corruption within components of the govt that have a steep power gradient, like the military.
[1] Vallance, J., (2007). Corruption and Reform in the Soviet Military, J. Slavic Military studies. 7(4), 703-724
[2] Merridale, C. (2006). Culture, Ideology and Combat in the Red Army, 1939-45. Journal of Contemporary History, 41(2), 305–324. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30036388
[3] Zaloznaya, M. (2015). Does Authoritarianism Breed Corruption? Reconsidering the Relationship Between Authoritarian Governance and Corrupt Exchanges in Bureaucracies. Law & Social Inquiry,40(2), 345-376. doi:10.1111/lsi.12076
Xi is presented as an anti-corruption leader, one at odds with the extensive senior officer corps that is involved in corrupt practices, yet his family and Xi have managed to salt away vast fortunes as well. The actions of prior premiers of China made it almost inevitable that corruption would become widespread in the military when the PLA was obliged to hold cake stalls for their missiles, (40% of funding had to be self-sourced... ) which led to opportunity.
Authoritarian govts do appear to lend themselves to corrupt practices, however, it appears that they also preclude some avenues of corruption that occur in more liberal societies [3]. What seems to arise is corruption within components of the govt that have a steep power gradient, like the military.
[1] Vallance, J., (2007). Corruption and Reform in the Soviet Military, J. Slavic Military studies. 7(4), 703-724
[2] Merridale, C. (2006). Culture, Ideology and Combat in the Red Army, 1939-45. Journal of Contemporary History, 41(2), 305–324. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30036388
[3] Zaloznaya, M. (2015). Does Authoritarianism Breed Corruption? Reconsidering the Relationship Between Authoritarian Governance and Corrupt Exchanges in Bureaucracies. Law & Social Inquiry,40(2), 345-376. doi:10.1111/lsi.12076
Agreed, but China may respond with some outrageous act with her visit as an excuse. Bullies also commit atrocities when they believe the other person shows responsible restraint. IMHO the US should flatly change its policy regarding Taiwan and unequivocally say we will defend them. Which means of course a lot of work to make that possible.
Agreed, but China may respond with some outrageous act with her visit as an excuse. Bullies also commit atrocities when they believe the other person shows responsible restraint. IMHO the US should flatly change its policy regarding Taiwan and unequivocally say we will defend them. Which means of course a lot of work to make that possible.
That allows plenty of room to combat direct military initiatives, but also allows Beijing to fulminate about the renegade province.
Imho, Beijing erred in crushing the Hong Kong dissidents, as that proved that their claims of 'one country, two systems' were hollow. So I'd expect Taiwan to resist vigorously, they know it is their skin on the line.
The Taiwan dollar took a bit of a hit as the news of Pelosi's visit become confirmed.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1554148048699375617?s=20
Interesting side effect, probably temporary
https://twitter.com/i/events/1554148048699375617?s=20
Interesting side effect, probably temporary
"Attempts at bullying usually start with bluster, yes."
and so do many wars I'm afraid.
and so do many wars I'm afraid.