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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

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The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

Old 8th Jul 2019, 08:37
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
Absolutely! But I don't have their phone numbers to be able to call round and poll them so I had to take a punt based on the people I've met and talked to................... which is what everyone else on here does as far as I can see
You seem unable to steer clear of poorly worded statements.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 13:53
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Originally Posted by tartare
HTK = hard target kill - the enhanced ability of a warhead to explode in very close proximity to a hardened military target.
Aha, thanks for that clarification. PS, great post, thanks for the detailed reply.
the US has refused to adopt an NFU policy.
Yes. Without it, deterrence doens't work. (Well, in some schools of thought)
In a recent public statement
If you can find a link that would be spiffy.
The USN might have shrunk - but is modern naval warfare purely a function of numbers of vessels? Think longer range anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedos, drones - and further in the future - directed energy weapons and rail-guns.
The latter are not quite mature, but I am keen to see them come on line.
I can understand the pessimism of some American posters here about declining US military strength - but I'd argue that right now, in an air-sea battle, on it's own the US Navy could still utterly decimate the PLAN and PLAF should it so choose.
Depends on how it starts, etc. My pessimism has to do with the lack of trainng funds etc ... separate rant, I'll not bore you.
And the Chinese know that - it's why they are adopting a salami-slicing strategy - no open confrontation. Just boil the frog, little by little.
Indeed, they have been playing the long game for quite a while. Nicely summarized there.

==

Here's the statement I was referring to - from 2016 - Dennis C. Blair, ret US CinC USPACOM and former US DNI (I think he would know what he's talking about, no?)
Destroying China?s Militarized Islands will take about 15 Minutes, says Former US Spy Chief : Science : Chinatopix
Specifically:
Blair is confident the U.S. will quickly and easily defeat China in any conflict. His optimism might be anchored on the realities the U.S. Navy can bring to bear enormous firepower against any fleet of the three fleets of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which operates no combat-capable carrier. PLAN has classified its only carrier, the Liaoning, a training carrier unsuitable for combat.
China's much advertised DF-21 anti ship ballistic missile is also under development and its immature kill chain might prevent it from even acquiring fast moving U.S. Navy carrier strike groups hundreds of kilometers distant. Chinese submarines, while a threat, aren't a serious enough threat to curtail operations of U.S. Navy ships. But if a conflict were to occur, this will likely be triggered by China.
If there should be war, Blair is confident the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force are capable of rapidly "neutralizing" China's outposts in the South China Sea, which are practically defenseless from a determined attack being isolated and strung out over hundreds of kilometers of sea. These offensive operations by the Navy and Air Force will only take "probably 10 or 15 minutes' worth of worth of work for U.S. forces."
He would say that, wouldn't he?
The Chinese are aware of where their situation has risks, I am sure, but I'll take Blair's assessment for what it is. Thanks for following up on that.
It's been about 3 years since his assessment. Not sure if things have gotten better, worse, or stayed the same since then.
Drone swarms come to mind as another wrinkle in this picture.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 8th Jul 2019 at 14:03.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 13:58
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Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever
A country with deep felt grievances about how they were treated by world powers, an authoritarian leader who rounds up undesirables and puts them in concentration camps, a country well into a huge military expansion and investment program, an aggressive and expansionist foreign policy; combined with an isolationist America and a divided and fractious Europe.

Seems to me we have seen this movie before........
Nicely put.
Originally Posted by Asturias56
In my view the S China Sea is not a great place for carriers - it's surrounded by land and you can build airfields faster and cheaper than you can build a carrier. If we're talking the Indian Ocean or the Pacific its possible to argue that carriers have real value
I see it similarly. Likewise, the south china sea is a good place for diesel boats to operate, complicating the picture even further. Comparatively shallow water, ASW wise.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 15:02
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China sends spy ship to monitor Australian war games

In The Times this afternoon.

From the article:-
A large Chinese navy surveillance ship sailing towards Australia is expected to monitor war games on the Queensland coast involving the US and Britain.

The Australian Defence Force has taken the unusual step of publicly announcing the position of the Type 815G naval intelligence vessel, seen north of Papua New Guinea over the weekend. As well as collecting electronic intelligence, the ship, which has a crew of 250, can track ballistic missiles.

Defence chiefs said that they expected the ship to position itself just outside Australian territorial waters to monitor major military exercises with the US that begin later this week. More than 34,000 military personnel, mostly from Americans and Australians, will take part in the biennial Talisman Sabre war games.
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Old 8th Jul 2019, 18:16
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I see it similarly. Likewise, the south china sea is a good place for diesel boats to operate, complicating the picture even further. Comparatively shallow water, ASW wise.
Along with undersea Drones and other covert devices.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 18:22
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China Signs Navy Base Agreement With Cambodia

Article in the WSJ.

Extract:-
China has signed a secret agreement allowing its armed forces to use a Cambodian navy base near here, as Beijing works to boost its ability to project military power around the globe, according to U.S. and allied officials familiar with the matter.

The pact—signed this spring but not disclosed by either side—gives China exclusive rights to part of a Cambodian naval installation on the Gulf of Thailand, not far from a large airport now being constructed by a Chinese company.

Some details of the final deal were unclear, the officials said, but an early draft, seen by U.S. officials, would allow China to use the base for 30 years, with automatic renewals every 10 years after that. China would be able to post military personnel, store weapons and berth warships, according to the draft.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 19:40
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 20:32
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Along with undersea Drones and other covert devices.
Is this the sort of thing you had in mind, Mr SASless ?

The Nanxun Jiao Crisis and the Dawn of Autonomous Undersea Conflict

..........

Last edited by Lordflasheart; 22nd Jul 2019 at 20:49.
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 20:46
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ge-fiddling ?

...
Lyneham and ORAC .....

Why does the development of the area East of Dara Sakor seem to be blanked out on GE ?
Has someone been ge-fiddling, so us peasants can't see what's going on ?

.............
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Old 22nd Jul 2019, 23:01
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In the wake of the Cambodia news, interesting piece here - https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...22-p529h3.html
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 01:11
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Originally Posted by tartare
In the wake of the Cambodia news, interesting piece here - https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/ch...22-p529h3.html
That article reads to me like wishful thinking.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 01:23
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I am trying to find Ream Naval Base on Google maps - and can't for the life of me.
It should stand out like pooch's parts.
Anyone (aside from Whiteman or Diego Garcia) got co-ordinates?
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 02:25
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It's there.

But go west along the coast from Ream National Park - Ream beach is a different location.

Near Koh Ta Viev Island. Stands out with a number of patrol boats and torpedo boats/corvettes.

10°30'14.5"N 103°36'29.1"E

Last edited by Gnadenburg; 23rd Jul 2019 at 02:36.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 02:39
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Got it.
One jetty, 14 Boats and two helo pads as well.
Those pix clearly pre-date the latest building program.
Sheesh - access to the whole Gulf of Thailand and beyond,
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 03:47
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
That article reads to me like wishful thinking.
Is it?


The economic successes that have allowed Xi to shape China internally and externally minus dissent (bar HK of late) are bound to have peaks and valleys, some deeper than others. The expectations of millions of Chinese are driven by their personal successes from the economic juggernaut that is China. Good economic times have also provided for a good diversion from living under a dictatorship. Come the inevitable cyclic market declines (prolly at the same time as ours) and Xi will have to find another way to keep the man in the street occupied. Lucky for him, he has a history lesson to fall back to, a Mao leadership style.

Once you had a taste of the good life, it’s hard to go back. No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare. As long as the Chinese economy hums along, all is good. The US will posture about the Chinese military expansion but will do nothing, the symbiotic economic relationship between the two nations is more valuable to the US than Chinese expansion.

IMO, the threat to XI is millions of formally upward mobile, young Chinese dissatisfied with a stagnant or contracting economy.
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 08:18
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" No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare."

have you met Jeremy Corbyn?
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 08:34
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He hasn’t a Mercedes, just an allotment.....
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 10:54
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Quick wee X-ref to ORACs latest thread.. https://www.pprune.org/military-avia...an-bomber.html

These joint operations should be a concern for military planners around the globe.

Remember the PRoC mini fleet sailing through the english channel on their way to joint Ex with russian fleet last year....right on our doorstep as it were...
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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 13:30
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Originally Posted by Asturias56
" No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare."

have you met Jeremy Corbyn?
It's my understanding the UK is receiving a BJ and not a JC, so all is well.

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Old 23rd Jul 2019, 13:36
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I don't think 30% of the Tory Party and ++50% of the population agree there West Coast
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